Key Takeaways APLD is moving from development to revenues as Polaris Forge 1 begins operations and new AI campuses scale.Zacks Consensus Estimate pegs APLD's 2026 revenue at $280.9M, implying 26.99% year-over-year growth.APLD's ability to convert new AI campuses into revenue will be tested as multiple sites scale simultaneously.Applied Digital (APLD) stands at a pivotal juncture as its expanding AI infrastructure portfolio transitions from development to revenue generation. With Polaris Forge1 beginning ope ...

Key Takeaways MSTR shares fell nearly 50% in 3M, pressured by Bitcoin volatility, mNAV compression and weak technicals.Strategy holds about 671,268 BTC, making Bitcoin its primary reserve asset and a scale edge over peers.MSTR raised about $6.7B via preferred securities and trades at a 0.91x P/B, well below its industry average.Strategy (MSTR) , the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder, has seen its shares tumble 49.7% over the past three months, sharply underperforming the Zacks Finance sector’s growth ...

Core Insights - Circle Internet Group (CRCL) is a significant player in the financial technology sector, particularly in the stablecoin market with its USDC offering [1] - The company faces intense competition from peers like IREN Limited and Cleanspark, which have recently outperformed CRCL [1][4] - Wolfe Research has initiated coverage on CRCL with an "Underperform" rating, reflecting challenges such as rising costs, competition, and regulatory hurdles [2][6] Financial Performance - CRCL's stock has seen a 33.5% decline over the past three months, attributed to rising costs, competition, and regulatory challenges [2][6] - The stock is currently priced at $75.94, with a recent decrease of 4.99% and a trading range between $75.24 and $79.84 [5] - Over the past year, the stock has fluctuated significantly, reaching a high of $298.99 and a low of $64, with a market capitalization of approximately $17.88 billion [5] Market Position - Despite the challenges, Circle Internet has experienced positive developments, including a surge in USDC circulation and on-chain activity, which has boosted engagement and market share [3] - The adoption of Circle's CPN has accelerated, supported by new global corridors and increased institutional activity [3] - In comparison to its industry peers, CRCL has underperformed, with the Zacks Financial-Miscellaneous Services industry declining by 9.5%, while the broader Zacks Finance sector gained 2.3% [4]

Core Insights - Circle Internet Group (CRCL) shares have decreased by 33.5% over the past three months, underperforming the Zacks Financial-Miscellaneous Services industry, which declined by 9.5%, and the broader Zacks Finance sector, which gained 2.3% [1][2] - The decline is attributed to competitive pressures in the stablecoin market, rising operating costs, regulatory uncertainties, and execution risks related to Arc network development [2][7] - Despite challenges, the growth of USD Coin (USDC) and the Circle Payments Network (CPN) presents potential for recovery and growth [10][13] Stock Performance - CRCL is trading below the 50-day moving average, indicating a bearish trend and limited near-term upside [5] - The stock has underperformed key peers, with IREN Limited and Cleanspark seeing gains of 64.2% and 56.6%, respectively, while PayPal declined by 9.5% [1] Operating Costs and Financial Guidance - Adjusted operating expenses are expected to rise to $495-$510 million, up from previous guidance of $475-$490 million, reflecting increased investments and higher payroll taxes [8] - In Q3, adjusted operating expenses grew by 35% year over year due to headcount expansion and higher general and administrative costs [8] USDC Market Growth - USDC in circulation surged by 108% year over year, reaching $10.2 billion, driven by institutional demand and blockchain integration [10] - On-chain transaction volume increased by 580% year over year, with Cross-Chain Transfer Protocol volume jumping 640% [11][12] - USDC's market share of USD-backed stablecoins rose to 29%, an increase of 643 basis points, capturing 40% of all stablecoin transaction volume [12] Circle Payments Network (CPN) Expansion - CPN has gained traction with 29 enrolled financial institutions and 500 more evaluating integration [13] - The network's transaction volume reached $3.4 billion, representing over 100x growth in five months [14] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CRCL's Q4 2025 earnings is 18 cents per share, with a full-year loss estimate improving to 87 cents per share, a $1.07 year-over-year improvement [15][16] Valuation and Investment Outlook - CRCL is trading at a forward price/sales ratio of 5.93X, lower than its median of 8.88X and the Zacks Finance sector's 8.9X, indicating potential upside [16] - Despite recent challenges, long-term fundamentals remain encouraging, suggesting a hold position for investors [17][18]

Core Insights - Applied Digital's Polaris Forge 2 development signifies the company's expansion into AI-focused data center infrastructure, starting with an initial 300 megawatts of IT load and potential scaling to a full gigawatt as power becomes available [1][2] - The success of Polaris Forge 1, which is fully leased at 400 megawatts and has approximately $11 billion in long-term contracted revenues, sets a precedent for the second campus [1] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2026 revenues is projected at $280.9 million, indicating potential growth as new capacity is deployed [1] Development Context - Polaris Forge 2 is being developed amid rising demand for liquid-cooled, high-density AI infrastructure, with limited power-ready sites available [2] - The project is designed to meet customer needs for clear construction schedules and advanced cooling capabilities as demand trends into 2026 and 2027 [2] Broader Infrastructure Factors - Applied Digital has 700 megawatts under construction and a 4-gigawatt active development pipeline, which may influence the pace of Polaris Forge 2's development [3] - Factors such as labor availability, material lead times, financing costs, and shifts in regional power markets could impact scheduling and spending for the project [3] Competitive Landscape - Applied Digital faces competition from both emerging and established providers, such as Riot Platforms and Equinix, who are also expanding their capacities for AI workloads [4] - Riot Platforms aims to exceed one gigawatt of future capacity, while Equinix operates over 260 data centers globally, focusing on power-dense environments [4] - APLD differentiates itself through its focus on purpose-built, liquid-cooled infrastructure and rapid development at sites like Polaris Forge 2 [4] Stock Performance and Valuation - Applied Digital's stock has increased by 179.7% year to date, significantly outperforming the broader Zacks Finance sector and the Zacks Financial-Miscellaneous Services industry, both of which returned 11.2% [5] - The company's stock is considered overvalued, with a forward 12-month price/sales ratio of 15.01X compared to the sector's 8.93X, resulting in a Value Score of F [9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2026 loss is projected at 31 cents per share, a narrowing of six cents over the past 30 days, compared to a loss of 80 cents per share in the previous year [11]

Core Insights - Applied Digital (APLD) is positioning itself as a critical infrastructure provider for the AI revolution, focusing on purpose-built data centers for high-performance computing workloads [1] - The company’s proprietary liquid cooling system enhances energy efficiency and sustainability, addressing key constraints for hyperscalers [2] - APLD's expansion plans, including a 400 MW capacity at Polaris Forge 1, indicate strong market demand for specialized AI infrastructure [3][4] Infrastructure and Market Demand - The active pipeline of 4 gigawatts and discussions with hyperscalers suggest robust demand for AI-specific capacity [4] - APLD achieved a significant operational milestone with the first 50-MW phase at Polaris Forge 1, transitioning from construction to revenue generation [4] Financial Performance and Growth Projections - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal second-quarter revenues is $75.95 million, reflecting an 18.91% year-over-year increase [5] - APLD's aggressive capital deployment across multiple projects may introduce execution complexities, impacting revenue growth sustainability [5] Competitive Landscape - APLD faces competition from Riot Platforms and Equinix, both of which are expanding their capabilities in AI infrastructure [6] - Riot Platforms operates large power-dense sites and shares regional advantages with APLD, while Equinix leverages its extensive global network of data centers [6] Stock Performance and Valuation - APLD shares have increased by 200.2% year to date, significantly outperforming the broader Zacks Finance sector [7] - The stock is considered overvalued with a forward price/sales ratio of 16.2X compared to the sector's 8.93X [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the second-quarter fiscal 2026 loss is 10 cents per share, indicating a wider loss compared to the previous year [12]

Core Insights - Applied Digital (APLD) is shifting its focus from blockchain hosting to high-performance computing infrastructure for AI workloads, indicating a long-term strategic reorientation towards contract-based revenue streams [1][3] Group 1: Strategic Transition - APLD's expansion in North Dakota includes the fully leased 400-megawatt Polaris Forge 1 campus, which has over $11 billion in contracted lease value, providing multi-year revenue visibility [2] - The company is constructing Polaris Forge 2, a 300-MW facility optimized for AI, designed for scalable expansion to meet the needs of hyperscalers [2] Group 2: Financial Outlook - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Q2 fiscal 2026 revenue is $63.5 million, reflecting a 0.66% year-over-year decline as construction income decreases and lease revenue increases [3] - APLD's earnings profile is expected to stabilize and improve margins as recurring contracts begin to contribute [3] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - APLD faces competition from Riot Platforms and Equinix in the AI infrastructure market, with both companies having significant scale and customer ecosystems [4] - APLD's competitive advantage lies in its purpose-built, liquid-cooled architecture and faster deployment timelines [4] Group 4: Stock Performance and Valuation - APLD shares have increased by 300.8% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the broader Zacks Finance sector and the Financial-Miscellaneous Services industry [5] - The stock is considered overvalued with a forward 12-month price/sales ratio of 23.21X compared to the sector's 9.26X, and it has a Value Score of F [9]

Core Insights - TeraWulf (WULF) shares have appreciated 90.1% year to date (YTD), underperforming the Zacks Financial-Miscellaneous Services industry and the Zacks Finance sector's returns of 5.2% and 13.4% respectively [1] - The company reported revenues of $47.6 million in Q2 2025, reflecting a 38% sequential increase and a 34% year-over-year increase [1][10] - TeraWulf self-mined 485 bitcoin in Q2 2025, with mining capacity increasing 45.5% year over year to 12.8 EH/s [2] Financial Performance - Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2025 was $14.5 million, down 25.6% year over year, compared to a negative $4.7 million in Q1 2025 [2] - Power cost per bitcoin self-mined increased by 98.5% year over year due to halving, rising network difficulty, and power price volatility [2] - Selling, general and administrative expenses are expected to be between $50 million and $55 million, up from previous guidance of $40-$45 million due to accelerated growth in the HPC business [3] Strategic Developments - TeraWulf is set to deliver 72.5 MW of HPC colocation capacity under data center lease agreements with Core42, expected to generate revenues starting Q3 2025 [5] - A deal with Fluidstack will provide over 360 MW of critical IT load at the Lake Mariner data center, with the facility capable of expanding to 500 MW and potentially 750 MW [6] - The Fluidstack deal represents approximately $6.7 billion in contracted revenues, with total expected contract revenues reaching $16 billion, supported by Alphabet's $3.2 billion credit [7] Competitive Landscape - TeraWulf has outperformed peers like Riot Platforms (55.7% YTD) and Cleanspark (12.4% YTD) [9] - The company faces significant competition from Riot Platforms and Cleanspark, both of which are also vertically integrated bitcoin mining companies [10] Valuation and Market Position - TeraWulf's stock is currently trading at a price/book ratio of 25.07X, significantly higher than the industry average of 3.67X, indicating a premium valuation [14] - Despite trading above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, the stock is considered overvalued [17][14] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TeraWulf's loss for 2025 has widened to 27 cents per share, compared to a loss of 19 cents per share in 2024 [20]

Core Insights - Circle Internet Group (CRCL) shares have declined 30.3% over the past month, underperforming the Zacks Financial-Miscellaneous Services industry, which fell 1.7%, and the broader Finance sector, which rose 1.3% [1][2] - The underperformance is attributed to increasing competition from Coinbase, PayPal, and Robinhood, with Coinbase recently partnering with Shopify to enable USDC payments [2][10] - Circle's USDC circulation grew 90% year over year, reaching $61.3 billion by the end of Q2 2025, and further increased to $65.2 billion by August 10, 2025 [10][11] Financial Performance - Circle's total revenues and reserve income increased by 53% year over year to $658.1 million, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.97% [12] - Revenues less distribution costs (RLDC) rose 38% year over year to $251 million, although the RLDC margin contracted by 408 basis points to 38% [12] - The company expects the RLDC margin for 2025 to be between 36-38% [12] Product and Platform Expansion - Circle launched the Circle Payments Network in May, aimed at financial institutions for stablecoin payments, with over 100 institutions in the pipeline [13] - The Circle Gateway, introduced in July, facilitates cross-chain USDC usage and is supported by eight new blockchain partners [14] - Partnerships with major firms like Binance, Fireblocks, and Finastra enhance Circle's capabilities in cross-border payments and stablecoin integration [15][16] Market Position and Outlook - The improving regulatory environment, including the passage of the GENIUS Act, is favorable for stablecoins like USDC, promoting enterprise adoption [11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Circle's earnings remains unchanged at 19 cents per share for Q3 2025, with revenues estimated at $668.7 million [18] - For 2025, the earnings estimate is $1.10 per share, with revenues projected at $2.58 billion [19] Investment Considerations - The current valuation of CRCL shares is considered stretched, and competition poses risks in the near term [21] - Circle's investments in platform development and partnerships are expected to increase operating expenses, projected between $475 million and $490 million for 2025, indicating a growth rate of 20-24% [21] - The company holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting that investors should wait for a more favorable entry point [22]

Group 1: Company Overview - Applied Digital (APLD) is experiencing increased demand for AI infrastructure, highlighted by a 15-year lease agreement with CoreWeave (CRWV) for 250 megawatts at Polaris Forge 1, with total anticipated lease revenues reaching approximately $11 billion [1][10] - Polaris Forge 1 is specifically designed for AI and high-performance computing (HPC), with a scalable capacity of up to 1 gigawatt, and the first facility is expected to be operational by Q4 2025 [2][10] - The facility aims to provide power-dense solutions, as AI queries require 15 times the electricity of traditional queries, presenting significant growth opportunities for APLD [3][10] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Strong spending by hyperscalers, projected to exceed $350 billion, is favorable for APLD, as these companies require high-capacity data centers to support AI and GPU-driven applications [4] - APLD currently operates around 286 megawatts of blockchain data center capacity, positioning it well within the growing market [4] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - APLD faces competition from AI infrastructure providers like Vertiv (VRT) and established data center operators such as Equinix (EQIX) [5] - Vertiv has seen organic order growth of approximately 11% in the past year and has strengthened its market position through collaborations and partnerships, including one with NVIDIA [6] - Equinix is expanding its global IBX data centers and anticipates a revenue increase of 5-6% in 2025, driven by rising demand for high-performing data centers [7] Group 4: Financial Performance - APLD's stock has surged 99.7% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the broader Zacks Finance sector's return of 12.8% and the Zacks Financial-Miscellaneous Services industry's appreciation of 5.4% [8] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for APLD's first-quarter fiscal 2026 loss is projected at 11 cents per share, which is a wider loss compared to the previous year [12] - APLD's stock is considered overvalued, with a forward 12-month price/sales ratio of 13.24X compared to the broader sector's 8.79X, resulting in a Value Score of F [15]