Group 1: Corn Market Insights - The corn futures market experienced a price recovery on January 16, following a bearish USDA supply and demand report earlier in the week [1] - Despite recent gains, March corn is still down 21 cents for the week, indicating a need for stabilization to regain bullish confidence [2] - USDA reported record harvested acres of 91.3 million and an average yield of 186.5 bushels per acre, suggesting a strong outlook for U.S. corn production [4] - Strong export demand for U.S. corn is evident, with reported sales of 120,000 MT to Japan and 298,000 MT to unknown destinations for the 2025-26 period [5] - Attention is shifting to Brazil's second-crop corn plantings, with weather conditions being monitored closely, particularly in southern Argentina [6] Group 2: Soybean Market Dynamics - March soybean futures closed down 4 3/4 cents last week, with soybean meal futures hitting a nearly three-month low, down $13.70 for the week [7] - Despite losses in corn, soybean futures bulls showed resilience, recovering from earlier losses [7] - The downtrend in soybean meal prices poses a bearish outlook for soybeans, with a need to break this trend for a sustainable price uptrend [7] - Historical data indicates that when soybean meal prices fall below $300.99, it may present a value-buying opportunity [7]

Group 1: Market Overview - Last week saw positive movement for corn and soybean futures, with prices stabilizing after gains earlier in the week [1] - Corn futures are currently trading within a sideways range, while soybeans have rebounded from early January lows [1] Group 2: USDA Supply and Demand Report - The upcoming USDA supply and demand report is expected to influence grain market trading [3] - Analysts predict U.S. corn production for 2025 to be 16.552 billion bushels, down from 16.752 billion in the previous report, with an average yield of 184.00 bushels per acre [3] - U.S. quarterly corn stocks as of December 1 are estimated at 12.962 billion bushels, an increase from 12.075 billion bushels a year prior [3] Group 3: Corn Production and Stocks - Ending stocks for U.S. corn in the 2025-26 marketing year are projected at 1.972 billion bushels, a decrease from 2.029 billion in the December report [4] - The Argentine corn crop for 2025-26 is estimated at 53.63 million metric tons, while Brazil's is projected at 132.46 million metric tons [4] - Global ending stocks for corn are expected to be 279.62 million metric tons, slightly up from 279.15 million metric tons in the previous report [4] Group 4: Soybean Production and Stocks - U.S. soybean production for 2025 is expected to be 4.229 billion bushels, down from 4.253 billion in the November report, with an average yield of 52.7 bushels per acre [5] - U.S. quarterly soybean stocks as of December 1 are estimated at 3.25 billion bushels, an increase from 3.10 billion bushels a year earlier [5] - Ending stocks for U.S. soybeans in the 2025-26 marketing year are projected at 292 million bushels, slightly up from 290 million in the December report [5] Group 5: Wheat Production and Stocks - U.S. wheat quarterly stocks as of December 1 are estimated at 1.636 billion bushels, an increase from 1.573 billion bushels a year prior [6] - Ending stocks for U.S. wheat in the 2025-26 marketing year are projected at 896 million bushels, down from 901 million in the December report [6] - Global ending stocks for wheat are expected to be 275.95 million metric tons, up from 274.87 million metric tons in the previous report [6]

Market Overview - The soft red winter wheat, soybean, meal, and soybean oil markets are currently heavy and susceptible to further price declines in the near term [1] - Corn and hard red winter wheat showed some price strength late last week, indicating potential resilience in the corn market [1] Corn Market Insights - Corn is highlighted as the most important grain market to watch, with a historical perspective emphasizing its significance [2] - March corn futures gained 3 cents last week, indicating a positive trading week for corn bulls [3] - Export demand for U.S. corn has been strong, which is expected to support futures prices despite recent price languishing [5] Soybean Market Challenges - January soybean futures hit a seven-week low, down 27.5 cents for the week, indicating bearish trends in the soybean complex [6] - Despite increased purchases of U.S. soybeans by China, the soybean market is facing selling pressure due to technical bearish signals [7] - U.S.-China trade relations remain a critical factor for the soybean market, with recent tensions potentially impacting future sales [7] Weather and Crop Conditions - Growing conditions for South American crops, particularly Brazil's late-planted soybean crop and safrinha corn plantings, are being closely monitored [4] - Weather forecasts indicate beneficial rains in Brazil and Paraguay, which should support crop development [4]

Core Viewpoint - Sustaining price uptrends in corn and soybean futures will be challenging due to harvest pressure and commercial hedge selling, although recent resilience has been noted in the corn market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - Corn production is estimated at 16.814 billion bushels, exceeding trade expectations of 16.502 billion bushels, with a yield decrease to 186.7 bushels per acre [3]. - Soybean production is forecasted at 4.301 billion bushels, also above trade expectations of 4.262 billion bushels, with a slight yield decrease to 53.5 bushels per acre [3]. - December corn futures rose to $4.30, marking a seven-week high, while November soybeans increased to $10.46 1/4, both closing at technically bullish weekly high prices [4]. Group 2: Export Demand - U.S. corn weekly export sales were reported at 539,900 MT for 2025-26, with strong demand from Mexico, although below the expected range [6]. - U.S. soybean export sales were reported at 541,100 MT for 2025-26, with traders focusing on improving global demand, particularly from China [7]. Group 3: Weather Impact - Weather forecasts indicate infrequent and light rain in the Midwest over the next two weeks, which may lead to minor declines in crop yields, although most crops are too advanced for significant yield reductions [8][9]. Group 4: Wheat Market Response - Winter wheat futures gained in sympathy with corn and soybean market rallies, with December soft red winter wheat futures up 4 1/4 cents and hard red winter wheat up 9 1/2 cents for the week [10]. - The USDA cut U.S. wheat estimated 2025-26 carryover by 25 million bushels, with no changes on the supply side but an increase in estimated exports [12].