ab 20 August 2025 Global Research Global Equity Strategy Quantitative Framework and Positioning Each month, we update the three key parts of our quantitative framework: 1) Scorecards − Our individual scorecards rank sectors based on valuations, sensitivity to our UBS macro scenario, earnings momentum, price momentum (where extreme), positioning and quality fundamentals. The composite scorecard combines all these factors into one overall score. 2) Earnings versus Trend − We look at the EPS versus trend to ev ...

Financial Performance - Revenues increased by 5% year over year in Q4, reaching $5 billion, driven by a 28% increase in security division service revenues and a 10% increase in optoelectronics division revenues [5][20] - Record Q4 non-GAAP adjusted earnings per share of $3.24, the highest quarterly adjusted EPS in company history [6][20] - Bookings in Q4 resulted in a book-to-bill ratio of approximately 1.0, with a year-end backlog of over $1.8 billion [6][9] Business Segment Performance - Security division revenues in Q4 were $367 million, up 7.1% year over year, with full-year revenue growth of 14.7% [9][20] - Optoelectronics division achieved a record $113 million in Q4 revenues, with a 10% increase in third-party opto sales [15][21] - Healthcare division's performance was disappointing, but plans are in place for improvement [17] Market Insights - The U.S. government's focus on enhancing security for major events like the 2026 FIFA World Cup and 2028 Summer Olympics is expected to drive demand for security solutions [13] - The Big Beautiful Bill Act provides significant funding for U.S. water security agencies, which is anticipated to benefit the company [12][14] Strategic Direction - The company is well-positioned for sustained success in the security division, with a growing opportunity pipeline and favorable market trends [12][15] - Plans for continued investment in R&D to advance key projects, including next-generation patient monitoring solutions [24][29] Management Commentary - Management expressed optimism about the operating environment and future prospects, highlighting strong organic demand across core businesses [5][18] - The company anticipates revenue growth of 5.4% to 8% for fiscal year 2026, with non-GAAP adjusted earnings per diluted share expected to grow by 8% to 11% [29][30] Other Important Information - Operating cash flow improved in Q4, but was lower than anticipated due to delayed payments from a major customer in Mexico [27][28] - The company amended its credit facility to extend the maturity date to July 2030 and increased borrowing capacity to $825 million, enhancing liquidity [28] Q&A Session Summary Question: Revenue guidance for fiscal year 2026 - Management indicated that excluding Mexico, the security division could see double-digit growth [35][36] Question: Concerns about security division growth - Management clarified that core security revenues grew over 50% when excluding Mexico and acquisitions [45][46] Question: Accounts receivable increase - Management explained that the increase was due to timing and record revenues, with expectations for significant cash flow in fiscal 2026 [51][55] Question: Strategic investments and M&A pipeline - Management is actively looking for opportunities but will not pursue acquisitions without clear strategic benefits [67] Question: Timing of funding from the Big Beautiful Bill - Management anticipates orders from the funding could start to materialize in the latter part of fiscal year 2026 [69]

Financial Performance - OSI Systems reported a 5% year-over-year increase in revenues for Q4, reaching $500 million, driven by a 28% increase in security division service revenues and a 10% increase in optoelectronics division revenues [5][20] - The company achieved record non-GAAP adjusted earnings per share of $3.24 for Q4, marking the highest quarterly adjusted EPS in its history [6][20] - The year-end backlog reached over $1.8 billion, with a book-to-bill ratio of approximately 1.0 in Q4, indicating strong future revenue visibility [6][8] Business Segment Performance - The Security division's Q4 revenues increased by 7.1% year-over-year, with full-year revenue growth of 14.7%, driven by demand from airport and international border security customers [8][20] - Optoelectronics division achieved a record Q4 revenue of $113 million, with a 10% increase in third-party opto sales year-over-year [14][21] - The Healthcare division experienced disappointing financial performance in Q4, but management anticipates stronger results moving forward due to ongoing investments in next-generation patient monitoring solutions [16][21] Market Dynamics - The U.S. government's focus on enhancing security for major events like the 2026 FIFA World Cup and 2028 Summer Olympics is expected to drive demand for OSI's solutions [12][14] - The Big Beautiful Bill Act provides significant funding for U.S. water security agencies, which is anticipated to create procurement opportunities for OSI's non-intrusive inspection equipment [11][12] Strategic Direction - OSI Systems is focused on organic growth and strategic acquisitions, leveraging a robust balance sheet to support growth initiatives [17][30] - The company is actively exploring M&A opportunities in security and complementary technologies, emphasizing that any acquisition must create significant value [68] Management Commentary - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to overcome challenges posed by declining revenues from Mexico contracts, highlighting strong core business growth [45][50] - The anticipated cash inflow from accounts receivable is expected to bolster operating cash flow in fiscal '26, with a focus on maintaining strong free cash flow conversion [28][56] Other Important Information - The gross margin for Q4 was 33.3%, an increase from 32.1% in the prior year, attributed to a favorable revenue mix and improved efficiencies [22] - Operating expenses were well-controlled, with SG&A expenses at 14.8% of sales, reflecting ongoing efforts to manage costs efficiently [23] Q&A Session Summary Question: Revenue guidance for fiscal year '26 and growth expectations - Management indicated that excluding Mexico, the overall growth rate for OSI Systems could be double digits in fiscal '26 [36] Question: Service revenue growth and margin implications - Management confirmed that strong service revenue growth is expected to continue, potentially outpacing product revenue growth, which should positively impact gross margins [38] Question: Concerns about security division growth in the back half of the year - Management clarified that core security revenues, excluding Mexico, grew over 50% in the last quarter, indicating strong underlying demand [45] Question: Accounts receivable increase and cash flow expectations - Management explained that the increase in accounts receivable was primarily due to timing and strong revenue performance, with expectations for significant cash collections in fiscal '26 [52][56] Question: Update on M&A pipeline and strategic investments - Management emphasized a strong balance sheet and ongoing exploration of M&A opportunities, while maintaining a focus on organic growth [68]

Summary of Mutual Fund Performance and Positioning Industry Overview - The report focuses on the mutual fund industry, specifically analyzing the performance and positioning of 549 large-cap active mutual funds with a total of $3.9 trillion in equity assets [1] Key Points Performance and Flows - The average large-cap core mutual fund has returned 9% year-to-date (YTD), while growth funds returned 11% and value funds returned 8% [2] - 36% of large-cap funds are outperforming their style benchmarks, a decrease from over 50% in April [2][10] - Mutual funds have reduced cash positions to 1.4% of assets, reversing earlier increases [2][15] - Despite market rallies, US equity mutual funds and ETFs have seen $5 billion in outflows over the past four weeks [2] Themes in Focus 1. **Return Dispersion**: The dispersion of stock returns has reached its widest level since 2020, creating opportunities for alpha generation. Mutual funds are overweight in cyclicals (+5% YTD) but underweight in AI-exposed equities [3][24] 2. **Magnificent 7**: Large-cap mutual funds were 819 basis points (bp) underweight the Magnificent 7 stocks, which has negatively impacted performance recently [3][37] 3. **Index Inclusion**: The S&P 500 index inclusion effect has resurfaced, with stocks added to the index outperforming the equal-weight S&P 500 by an average of 4 percentage points on announcement day [3][49] Sector Positioning - The average large-cap mutual fund has increased its overweight in Financials by 42 bp and Industrials by 39 bp, ranking in the 97th and 100th percentiles respectively over the past 10 years [4][66] - Despite underperformance in Health Care stocks YTD, mutual funds maintain a 157 bp overweight in the sector [4] - The largest underweight is in Information Technology at -536 bp, attributed to its significant weight in benchmark indices [4][66] Stock Positioning - The largest mutual fund overweights have underperformed the equal-weight S&P 500 YTD (+6% vs. +7%), while the largest underweights have outperformed (+15%) [8] - New constituents in the largest overweights include AZO, INTU, DIS, and others, while underweights include MSTR, COIN, and CRWD [8] Additional Insights - The average large-cap mutual fund is currently most overweight in Financials (+220 bp) and most underweight in Info Tech (-536 bp) [66] - Funds have selectively added exposure to AI stocks, with notable additions including PLTR, VST, SNOW, and GEV [29] - The report highlights 20 stocks with high dispersion scores, indicating significant alpha potential where mutual funds are underweight [35] Conclusion - The mutual fund industry is experiencing challenges in outperforming benchmarks amid rising equity markets, with notable shifts in sector positioning and stock selection strategies. The focus on cyclicals and the underweight in AI-exposed equities are critical themes for future performance.

Core Insights - Markel Group Inc. (MKL) reported second-quarter 2025 net operating earnings per share of $25.46, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.9%, but down 1.9% year over year [1][9] - Total operating revenues reached $4 billion, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.7% and increasing 4.9% year over year [2][9] - Earned premiums rose 3.1% year over year to $2.1 billion, exceeding the estimate of $2 billion [2][9] - Net investment income increased 3% year over year to $230 million, although it was below the estimate of $263.9 million [3] - Total operating expenses increased 6.2% to $3.5 billion, driven by higher losses and various expenses [3][9] - The combined ratio deteriorated by 280 basis points year over year to 96.3 [4][9] Segment Performance - Markel Insurance segment saw earned premiums increase 2.9% year over year to $2.1 billion, with total operating revenues also rising 2.9% to $2.1 billion; however, operating income decreased 51.3% year over year to $60.3 million [5] - The combined ratio for the insurance segment worsened by 310 basis points to 96.9, attributed to adverse developments in specific product lines and the Global Reinsurance division [6] - The Investing segment's operating income surged 724.1% year over year to $822.4 million, primarily due to higher net investment income and gains [6] - Markel Ventures reported operating revenues of $1.6 billion, a 6.5% year-over-year increase, with operating income rising 17% to $207.8 million [7] Financial Position - As of the end of Q2 2025, Markel had cash and cash equivalents of $3.7 billion, up 0.8% from the end of 2024 [8] - The debt balance increased 0.8% year over year to $4.4 billion, while shareholders' equity rose 2.4% to $17.3 billion [8] - Net cash provided by operating activities was $880.5 million in the first half of 2025, down 27.18% year over year due to lower net premium collections [8]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company delivered total revenue of just over $1 billion, down 0.4% year over year, with core revenue declining 0.7% [18][20] - Adjusted EPS was $0.58, up 4% year over year, driven by stable adjusted EBITDA and lower interest expenses [20][21] - Free cash flow for Q2 was $180 million, with trailing twelve-month free cash flow of $939 million, representing a 14% year-over-year increase [21][30] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Intelligent Operating Solutions segment saw revenue and core revenue growth essentially flat year over year, with adjusted gross profit at $461 million, down slightly from the prior year [22][24] - Advanced Healthcare Solutions segment delivered total revenue of $320 million, down 1.3% year over year, with adjusted gross margins increasing from just under 58% to just over 59% [26][28] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North America showed slight positive growth, while Western Europe, China, and Latin America experienced year-over-year declines [19][20] - The company noted that customer demand pressures were influenced by macroeconomic factors, including tariff uncertainty and constrained government spending [7][19] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on executing its Fortive Accelerated strategy, which includes innovation acceleration, commercial acceleration, and enhancing recurring customer value [11][12] - The company is initiating guidance for continuing operations, reflecting a full-year outlook consistent with its new approach of providing clear and simplified guidance [8][32] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to navigate macro pressures and emphasized the importance of the projects in the pipeline for government spending [50][51] - The company anticipates that the revenue slip experienced in Q2 will normalize in the coming quarters, with a strong outlook for the second half of the year [22][55] Other Important Information - The company received a $1.15 billion dividend from the Rallyant spinoff, which was used to pay down debt and fund share repurchases [30][31] - The gross tariff impact for Fortive's continuing operations is expected to be approximately $40 million to $55 million in 2025, with annualized impacts of $80 million to $120 million [29] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on second half moving pieces between Q3 and Q4 - Management confirmed that Q3 EPS is expected to be in the low to mid-50s range, with a sequential increase in Q4 driven by tax rate drops and tariff countermeasures [42][44] Question: Government spending and healthcare market outlook - Management noted that while government spending pressures exist, essential projects are still in the pipeline, and healthcare spending is expected to recover as reimbursement policies stabilize [50][51] Question: Clarification on organic sales growth expectations - Management indicated that organic sales growth in Q3 is expected to be consistent with the modest decline seen in Q2, with AHS facing high year-over-year comps [60][64] Question: Renewal rates for Gordian or iOS software - Management reported strong renewal rates across all software businesses, with a focus on expanding and cross-selling to enhance net dollar retention [67][68] Question: Rationale behind not providing high-level organic growth guidance - Management emphasized the intention to simplify communications with investors while maintaining focus on a multi-year value creation plan [73][74] Question: Approach to bolt-on acquisitions - Management clarified that there is a heightened level of scrutiny for bolt-on acquisitions, with a focus on ensuring that each deal meets high strategic and financial criteria [78][79]

Market Overview - The market recovery in the first half of the year has been surprising, with many stocks returning to or exceeding pre-crisis levels despite ongoing uncertainties [5][12] - The focus has shifted from the "Magnificent Seven" to the "Troubling Three," which includes NVIDIA, Microsoft, and Meta as the primary drivers of market performance [10][11] NVIDIA and AI Sector - NVIDIA's performance is seen as a key indicator for the S&P 500, with its stock movements significantly influencing broader market trends [7][52] - Concerns are raised about the sustainability of NVIDIA's high valuations and the potential for commoditization in the AI space, which could lead to lower profit margins [19][20][33] Technology Sector Dynamics - The technology sector is experiencing high concentration, with a few stocks dominating market performance, reminiscent of historical trends seen in the past 40-50 years [12] - The liquidity in the marketplace is poor, with fewer buyers and sellers, leading to exaggerated market movements [53][54] Economic Indicators - The health of the US economy, particularly employment rates, is critical for market stability; rising unemployment could lead to significant shifts in bond yields and equity valuations [64][70] - Monitoring continuing claims for unemployment benefits is essential, as an increase could signal a downturn in consumer spending and economic health [71][72] AI in Healthcare - There is a growing belief that AI will have a more significant impact in healthcare and drug discovery than in consumer-facing applications, with potential for rapid advancements in diagnostics and treatment [38][41][45]

New Fortive Overview - New Fortive is a simplified company with a track record of strong financial performance, supported by approximately 50% recurring revenues[14, 29] - The company is strategically positioned in attractive markets with a clear path to accelerate value creation[14, 29] - New Fortive's revenue is \$41 billion, with Intelligent Operating Solutions (IOS) contributing approximately \$28 billion (approximately 70%) and Advanced Healthcare Solutions (AHS) contributing approximately \$13 billion (approximately 30%)[23] - The company has a higher quality financial profile with 4% core revenue growth, approximately 50% recurring revenue, 64% adjusted gross margin, 10% adjusted EBITDA growth, and 17% FCF growth[24] Business Segments and Market Opportunities - Intelligent Operating Solutions (IOS) has a \$35 billion addressable market with low to mid-single-digit market growth outlook[36, 41] - Advanced Healthcare Solutions (AHS) has a \$10 billion addressable market with low to mid-single-digit market growth outlook[36, 42] - Fluke's addressable market has expanded from \$7 billion to \$15 billion, with double-digit market growth in areas like solar and EV charging[154, 155] - Facility and Asset Lifecycle (FAL) Software has an \$11 billion addressable market with mid-single-digit market growth[191] Financial Performance and Projections - New Fortive has demonstrated strong historical performance, including 4% core growth CAGR, 9% adjusted gross profit CAGR, 12% adjusted EBITDA CAGR, and 12% FCF CAGR[27] - The company projects 3-4% core revenue CAGR for the next few years (2026-2027) and beyond (2028 onwards)[78, 225] - Adjusted EBITDA margin is expected to expand by approximately 50-100 bps annually on average[78, 225] - Adjusted EPS growth is projected to be in the high single digits plus CAGR at a constant tax rate[78, 225]

Group 1: Nvidia's Earnings and Market Impact - Nvidia's recent earnings report alleviated concerns about a slowdown in AI and data-center spending, positively impacting the market and benefiting frontline players in the AI/data center industry [1] - The report also positively affects other companies with exposure to AI, such as GE HealthCare Technologies, PTC, and Vertiv [1] Group 2: GE HealthCare Technologies and AI Integration - GE HealthCare is collaborating with Nvidia on AI-powered robotics to enhance its imaging systems, utilizing Nvidia's Isaac platform [2] - The integration of AI into GE HealthCare's imaging systems improves patient guidance and data analysis, supporting decision-making and patient monitoring [2][3] - AI's value addition across GE HealthCare's businesses is expected to lead to better patient outcomes and long-term sales growth [3] Group 3: PTC and Industrial AI - Nvidia's CEO highlighted the importance of industrial AI, which is gaining traction as manufacturing is reshored to the U.S. [5][6] - PTC utilizes Nvidia's GPUs to enhance its CAD software, enabling real-time digital models that improve machinery performance through AI-powered analytics [7] - PTC has experienced double-digit recurring revenue growth and is projected to drive mid-teens growth in free cash flow, with potential for sustained growth if industrial AI continues to develop [8] Group 4: Vertiv's Role in AI Growth - Vertiv is a key partner for Nvidia, contributing to the power needs of AI growth in data centers, with strong order and backlog growth anticipated in 2025 [10] - Vertiv is set to launch its 800V direct current power architecture for data centers in the second half of 2026, ahead of Nvidia's next generation platforms [11] - Vertiv's solutions include rectifiers, busways, converters, and backup systems, positioning it well in the competitive landscape of power solutions for data centers [12]

Market Overview - A recent ruling by the U.S. trade court declared President Trump's global tariffs illegal, contributing to a new wave of market uncertainty [1] - The Federal Reserve's current wait-and-see approach adds to the uncertainty regarding future interest rate directions [1] Investment Strategy - Creating a curated portfolio of low-beta stocks is recommended as a strategy to navigate market volatility [1] - Low-beta stocks are less volatile than the market, providing a safeguard against uncertainty [1] Stock Recommendations - Suggested stocks include Natural Gas Services Group Inc (NGS), Stride Inc. (LRN), AptarGroup Inc. (ATR), and Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) [2] Stock Characteristics - Beta measures the volatility of a stock relative to the market, with a beta of 1 indicating movement in line with the market [3][4] - Stocks with a beta between 0 and 0.6 are screened for lower volatility [5] Screening Criteria - Stocks must have a positive price change over the last four weeks [5] - Average 20-day trading volume should exceed 50,000 to ensure liquidity [6] - Stocks must be priced at $5 or higher [6] - Zacks Rank of 1 indicates strong buy potential, suggesting significant outperformance over the next one to three months [6] Company Insights - **Natural Gas Services (NGS)**: Increased demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports is driving the need for compression equipment, benefiting NGS as more pipelines are built [7] - **AptarGroup (ATR)**: Positioned for growth due to trends in healthcare moving towards home settings and rising demand for drug delivery systems [8] - **Stride Inc. (LRN)**: Focuses on innovative educational solutions, benefiting from the growing demand for school choice and tutoring services [10] - **Philip Morris International (PM)**: Transitioning from traditional cigarettes to smoke-free products, with a focus on shareholder rewards and cost-cutting initiatives [11]