Joining me now to discuss the potential fallout, Everore ISI's Greg Melik. Greg, thank you so much for for being here with us. I know that you cover Home Depot and that was one of the names that came to mind for me as soon as I saw some of these headlines.What do you think the impact will be. >> You know, we think for the retailers, especially one like Home Depot, they have a big broad enough global supply base. And in the case of Home Depot, the majority of what they're doing, they're sourcing here in the ...

Core Insights - The back-to-school and college shopping season in the U.S. is experiencing a significant increase in early shopping, with 67% of shoppers starting their purchases by early July, up from 55% last year, marking the highest level since 2018 [1][2] Spending Trends - K-12 shoppers have an average budget of $295.81 for electronics, totaling $13.5 billion, $249.36 for clothing and accessories ($11.4 billion), $143.77 for school supplies ($6.6 billion), and $169.13 for shoes ($7.8 billion [3] - College students and parents are expected to spend an average of $309.50 on electronics ($20.7 billion), $191.39 on dorm furnishings ($12.28 billion), $166.07 on clothing and accessories ($11.1 billion), $140.24 on food ($9.4 billion), and $117.95 on shoes ($7.9 billion) [4] Company Insights - Costco Wholesale (COST) operates membership warehouses selling food and general merchandise at discounted prices, holding a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) and a VGM Score of B [5] - Lowe's Companies (LOW) is a leading home improvement retailer with a Zacks Rank of 3 and an upbeat VGM Score of A, offering essentials for back-to-campus needs [6] - Ambarella (AMBA) develops semiconductors for video compression and image processing, holding a Zacks Rank of 3 [7] - Amazon.com (AMZN) is a major e-commerce provider with a Zacks Rank of 3 [8] ETF Insights - ProShares Online Retail ETF (ONLN) tracks online retailers and charges 58 bps in fees with a yield of 0.65% annually [9] - VanEck Retail ETF (RTH) tracks the performance of various retail companies and charges 35 bps in fees with a yield of 0.70% annually [10][11] - Invesco Food & Beverage ETF (PBJ) focuses on U.S. food and beverage companies, charging 62 bps in fees with a yield of 1.68% annually [12] - VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) tracks semiconductor companies and charges 35 bps in fees with a yield of 0.37% annually [13]

Group 1: Home Depot - Home Depot is the leading home improvement retailer, known for its high sales and popularity among consumers and contractors [4] - Recent sluggish sales are attributed to homeowners delaying major projects due to high interest rates and inflation affecting spending power [4][5] - In the fiscal second quarter, same-store sales increased by 1%, with foreign currency translations negatively impacting results by 0.4 percentage points [5] - The company has consistently prioritized dividend payments, with a history of increasing payouts annually since 2010, even during economic downturns [6][7] - Home Depot generated $7.2 billion in free cash flow in the first half of the year, significantly exceeding the $4.6 billion in dividends paid [8] - The current dividend yield stands at 2.3%, which is over 1 percentage point higher than the S&P 500's yield of 1.2% [8] Group 2: Target - Target has been a popular shopping destination for basic and exclusive merchandise, but sales have been affected by high prices and recent boycotts related to management decisions [9][10] - The fiscal second-quarter same-store sales dropped by 1.9%, with lower traffic accounting for a 1.3 percentage point decline [11] - Target announced a 1.8% increase in its quarterly dividend to $1.14, maintaining a commitment to dividend growth since 1967, making it a Dividend King [12] - The company has a payout ratio of 52%, indicating it can comfortably sustain the increased dividend payments [12] - At the new dividend rate, Target's stock yields approximately 4.6% [12]

Core Insights - Target reported a decline in net sales of 0.9% for the quarter, an improvement from a 2.8% drop in the first quarter, indicating ongoing struggles amid consumer backlash and tariff pressures [3][4] - Lowe's exceeded expectations for earnings and sales, announcing a deal to acquire Foundation Building Materials, which distributes construction materials, despite DIY products making up 70% of its sales [1][2] Company Performance - Home Depot's net earnings were reported at $4.6 billion, slightly below the expected $4.71 billion, with net sales of $45.2 billion, down from the anticipated $45.3 billion [3][4] - Home Depot's president stated that the results were in line with expectations and reaffirmed a fiscal guidance of 2.8% sales growth for the year [4] Market Trends - CFO Richard McPhail indicated that higher tariff rates on some imported goods could affect prices, but adjustments would not be broad-based, with customers shifting from larger home improvement projects to smaller ones due to uncertainty and higher borrowing costs [5][6] - Foot traffic at Home Depot stores fell by 4.3% in July, while online sales increased by approximately 12% compared to the second quarter of 2024 [9] Upcoming Earnings Reports - Major retailers, including Lowe's and Walmart, are scheduled to report earnings, which may provide insights into how they are managing the impact of higher tariff rates [7][8]

Core Insights - Lowe's (LOW) and Home Depot (HD) are in a competitive market, both facing challenges as consumer spending on big-ticket home improvement items has decreased post-COVID [1][15] - Both companies have underperformed relative to the S&P 500 in 2025, reflecting a similar trajectory in their stock performances [1][7] Analyst Expectations - Analysts have not revised EPS and sales estimates for both companies recently, with LOW expected to see 1.5% EPS growth on 3.4% higher sales, while HD is projected to have a 5.4% increase in EPS with 1.0% sales growth [3] - Despite LOW's anticipated stronger sales growth, HD has shown more resilience in its top line, with year-over-year (YoY) growth rates turning positive after previous declines [4][5] Sales and Performance Metrics - LOW's YoY sales growth rates have been negative since early 2023, while HD's sales have shown improvement with a smaller YoY decline of 0.3% compared to LOW's 1.7% [8][10] - HD's shares trade at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 25.3X, a 29% premium over LOW's 19.6X, indicating a historical premium for HD [9] Market Environment - Both companies are navigating a challenging demand environment post-COVID, with rising interest rates contributing to softer consumer demand [15][16] - Guidance from Home Depot's earnings report will be crucial for LOW's expectations, as both companies maintain a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) [17]

Market Overview - Stocks opened cautiously higher but ended mixed, indicating potential volatility throughout the week as Wall Street anticipates clues on rate cuts from the upcoming Fed minutes and Jerome Powell's speech [1][6] - The July jobs report was significantly lower than expected, which has increased expectations for a quarter-point rate cut at the next Fed meeting in September, with some speculating a half-point reduction [2][5] Retail Earnings - Major retailers are set to report earnings this week, providing insights into consumer spending amidst higher tariffs and persistent inflation [7] - Walmart is expected to show strong underlying momentum in its fiscal second-quarter results, with a justified valuation of 38.5 times forward earnings due to significant margin expansion opportunities [8][9] - Target is anticipated to report year-over-year declines in both revenue and earnings, leading to a downgrade by BofA Securities to Underperform, with a lowered price target of $93, indicating over 11% downside potential [10][12] Competitive Landscape - Target faces increasing long-term sales and margin risks due to slowing digital sales growth, competitive threats from Walmart and Amazon, and various pricing pressures [11] - The consensus recommendation for Target among analysts is a Hold, with a mix of ratings reflecting cautious sentiment [12] Pharmaceutical Developments - Novo Nordisk's shares rose 3.7% following the accelerated FDA approval of its obesity drug, Wegovy, for treating a serious liver disease, which may help shift momentum for the company after a challenging start to the year [13][14]

Core Viewpoint - Tariffs create significant uncertainty for businesses and investors, impacting stock market predictions and evolving weekly [1] Group 1: Walmart - Walmart has substantial vendor power to influence prices and can pass costs to consumers if necessary [4] - The retailer's sales increased by 2.5% year-over-year to $165.6 billion, with operating income rising by 4.3% to $7.1 billion [6] - Despite a high valuation at over 40 times trailing earnings, Walmart is considered a safer retail stock under current macroeconomic conditions [7] Group 2: Home Depot - Home Depot does not anticipate raising prices due to tariffs, as suppliers can source goods from multiple countries [9] - The company expects single-digit sales growth of 2.8% for the current fiscal year, with comparable sales rising by 1% [10] - With shares down 7% this year, Home Depot's valuation at a P/E of 25 is modest and aligns with the S&P 500 average [11] Group 3: Microsoft - Microsoft has low tariff risk, generating around 22% of revenue from product sales, with most coming from services [12] - The company reported a 15% revenue increase to over $70 billion in its April quarter, with Azure and cloud services sales rising by 35% [13] - Although trading at a P/E of 35, Microsoft's diversification and financial strength make it a strong growth stock for long-term investment [14]

Core Insights - The retail sector is facing challenges with both Target and Lowe's reporting mixed quarterly results, indicating a cautious consumer environment and potential recessionary conditions [1][2][16]. Target - Target reported earnings of $1.30 per share on revenue of $23.85 billion, missing consensus estimates of $1.62 per share and $24.54 billion in revenue, marking a 19.75% shortfall in earnings and a 2.79% decline in revenue year-over-year [2][3]. - The company revised its fiscal 2026 earnings guidance to a range of $7.00 to $9.00 per share on revenue of approximately $103.9 billion, down from previous estimates of $8.80 to $8.90 per share and $107.63 billion in revenue [4][3]. - Target's digital sales grew by 4.7%, indicating a shift towards online shopping, with plans to enhance its website and app for better customer experience [6][7]. - The company is expected to increase promotions and discounts to attract shoppers back to stores, especially online [7][8]. Lowe's - Lowe's reported earnings of $2.92 per share on revenue of $20.93 billion, slightly above consensus estimates of $2.88 per share but with a 2.03% decline in revenue year-over-year [10][12]. - The company maintains its fiscal year earnings guidance of $12.15 to $12.40 per share on revenue between $83.50 billion and $84.50 billion, aligning closely with current consensus estimates [11][10]. - Lowe's is experiencing a shift in customer focus towards smaller repairs rather than large renovation projects due to higher borrowing costs and a slowing housing market [12][16]. - The company is enhancing its service quality and training for employees, aiming to improve the shopping experience for both retail and professional customers [14][15]. Industry Trends - Retailers are grappling with tariffs, cautious consumer spending due to high prices and interest rates, and a significant shift towards online shopping [16][17]. - Economic uncertainty is leading to a more cautious approach from both companies and consumers regarding spending and hiring [18]. - Retailers are expected to invest in technology and improve online shopping experiences, which may include better apps and faster delivery options [20][23]. - Promotions and loyalty programs are likely to increase as companies seek to stimulate consumer spending during potential recessionary periods [21][24].

Summary of US Retailing Broadlines & Hardlines Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the US retailing broadlines and hardlines sector, analyzing future consumer shopping trends and identifying potential winners among retailers [1][12]. Key Insights E-commerce Growth - US e-commerce sales have reached $1.2 trillion annually, accounting for approximately 16% of total retail sales [2][24]. - E-commerce has gained an average of 60 basis points (bps) market share per year since 1993, accelerating to 107 bps per year over the last decade [14][18]. - Discretionary categories are expected to lead in e-commerce penetration, while food and beverage categories lag behind [22][27]. Retailer Performance - Walmart (WMT) is viewed as a structural winner due to its scale and investment in automation, which supports profitability improvements [2]. - Target (TGT) faces challenges due to its smaller scale and limited investments, leading to persistent margin headwinds in e-commerce [2][40]. - Costco (COST) is selective in its e-commerce efforts, focusing on partnerships for same-day delivery rather than in-house fulfillment [38]. Retail Media Opportunities - The retail media market could grow to $100 billion by 2028, representing about 19% of total media ad spend [3][74]. - Walmart's retail media could become a $10 billion business, while Target's Roundel is already a $2 billion business [3][72]. Labor Market Challenges - Inflationary pressures and tightening immigration policies may increase labor costs, with dollar retailers being the most vulnerable due to their low pay models [5][60]. Supply Chain and Global Sourcing - Retailers manage complex supply chains with up to 50% of cost of goods sold (COGS) coming from imports [4][88]. - Target and Dollar Tree are most exposed to tariff risks due to their higher discretionary exposure [4][86]. Consumer Behavior Trends - The pandemic shifted consumer preferences towards "do it for me" (DIFM) services, but there is potential for a rebound in DIY home improvement projects among younger homeowners [6][12]. - Millennials and Gen-Z are expected to show a greater propensity for DIY compared to older generations [6]. AI and Future Retail Landscape - The rise of AI agents poses a potential threat to traditional retail models by automating shopping decisions [79]. - Despite this, physical retail remains relevant, especially for grocery offerings, as consumers still prefer in-store shopping for certain products [82]. Investment Implications - Ratings for key retailers include: - Costco (COST): Outperform, Target Price (TP): $1,177 - Walmart (WMT): Outperform, TP: $113 - Dollar General (DG): Outperform, TP: $95 - Lowe's (LOW): Outperform, TP: $289 - Target (TGT): Market-Perform, TP: $124 - Dollar Tree (DLTR): Market-Perform, TP: $80 - Home Depot (HD): Market-Perform, TP: $421 [9]. Additional Considerations - The report emphasizes the importance of scale in retail as a defense against competition from e-commerce and AI [84]. - The potential for deglobalization to impact sourcing strategies and cost structures is highlighted, particularly for retailers heavily reliant on imports [100].