The Home Depot (NYSE:HD) Q3 2026 Earnings Call November 18, 2025 09:00 AM ET Speaker4Greetings and welcome to the Home Depot third quarter 2025 earnings call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A brief question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operator assistance during the conference, please press star zero on your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Isabel Ja ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consolidated net revenue for Q3 2025 increased 2% to a record $778 million compared to $761 million for the same period last year [16] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 increased to a record $140 million, reflecting an adjusted EBITDA margin of 18% [18] - Adjusted net income increased to $86 million or $3.18 per diluted share [18] - Cash flow from operating activities increased 16% to $307 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2025 [10][18] - Adjusted gross margin for Q3 2025 was 34%, up from 33.8% in the prior year period [17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Same branch sales for the installation segment were flat for Q3, with a 12% increase in commercial same branch sales offset by a 3% decline in residential same branch sales [16] - Third quarter installation sales in the multifamily end market were down 7% on a same branch basis [9] - Heavy commercial same branch sales growth exceeded 30% during Q3 2025 [17] - Same branch new single-family installation sales were down 2% [9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Single-family starts year-to-date through August 2025 decreased by 5% from the prior year, while multifamily starts decreased by 15% for the same period [12] - The South region, which represents about 45% of residential sales, was essentially flat in the quarter, while the West region, accounting for roughly 20% of residential sales, was down very low single digits [42] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company remains focused on growing earnings and cash flow while diligently deploying capital to shareholders, having returned nearly $213 million to shareholders through dividends and stock repurchases [8] - The company is pursuing acquisitions in well-run businesses that support attractive returns on invested capital, particularly in the fragmented residential installation market [11] - The company is optimistic about the long-term fundamentals of the U.S. housing construction industry despite current challenges [8][13] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expects residential housing starts to be flat compared to 2025, influenced by consumer confidence and buyer activity during the spring home selling season [13] - The company believes it operates from a position of strength and is flexible in navigating potential near-term challenges [14] - Management noted that while there are headwinds in the multifamily market, they are strategically gaining market share [25] Other Important Information - The company published its 2025 ESG report, highlighting efforts in environmental sustainability and community engagement [8] - The company has a net debt to trailing twelve-month adjusted EBITDA leverage ratio of 1.09 times, well below the target of 2 times [19] - The fourth quarter dividend of $0.37 per share represents a 6% increase over the prior year period [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the outlook for multifamily and commercial backlogs? - Management indicated that while there are continued headwinds in the multifamily market, they are seeing building of backlogs and gaining share in new markets [24][25] Question: Are there any delays in the commercial side? - Management noted that while there are no widespread project delays, some select markets are experiencing delays, particularly influenced by the trades that come before them [32] Question: How is the company performing relative to competitors? - Management stated that they have outperformed the market opportunity, particularly with regional and local builders, despite headwinds in the entry-level market [50][51] Question: What are the expectations for pricing and gross margins? - Management expects continued pricing pressure in the entry-level market but is confident in maintaining margins through effective service and value provided to builders [129] Question: What is the growth outlook for the heavy commercial segment? - Management expressed confidence in the heavy commercial business continuing to deliver strong results, with significant opportunities for organic growth [115][120]

Core Insights - The Home Depot and Lowe's dominate the U.S. home improvement market, valued at over $500 billion, with significant shares in DIY, DIFM, and professional contractor segments [1][2]. Home Depot (HD) - Home Depot holds a leading position in the U.S. home improvement retail market, estimated to control nearly 50% of the $1 trillion industry, with 2,353 stores and a 12% year-over-year increase in online sales for Q2 fiscal 2025 [4][8]. - The company's competitive edge stems from its scale, supply-chain efficiency, and a diverse customer base, which includes both DIY homeowners and professional contractors [5]. - Strategic expansion into the Pro ecosystem through acquisitions like SRS and the pending GMS deal enhances its market reach and ability to cross-sell [6][7]. - Home Depot reported Q2 fiscal 2025 sales of $45.3 billion, a 4.9% increase year-over-year, with an adjusted operating margin of 14.8% and a return on invested capital of 27.2% [8]. Lowe's (LOW) - Lowe's is the second-largest home improvement retailer in North America, holding about 25% of the U.S. market, with Q2 fiscal 2025 sales of $24 billion, up 1.1% year-over-year [9][10]. - The company focuses on expanding its Pro and digital ecosystem, with an adjusted EPS of $4.33, reflecting a 5.6% increase, and an operating margin of 14.7% [9]. - Lowe's recent acquisition of Foundation Building Materials opens access to a $250 billion Pro market, enhancing its capabilities in drywall and insulation distribution [11]. - The company reported a return on invested capital of 29.5% and generated $3.7 billion in free cash flow during the fiscal second quarter, indicating strong financial health [12]. Market Comparison - Home Depot's stock has decreased by 2.5% over the past year, while Lowe's has seen a decline of 7.3%, with Home Depot outperforming due to its scale and Pro segment growth [17]. - Home Depot trades at a forward price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of 2.26, while Lowe's is at 1.55, indicating that Home Depot is priced at a premium [18]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Home Depot's fiscal 2025 sales suggests a 2.9% growth, while Lowe's estimates indicate a 1.8% growth [13][16]. Investment Outlook - Home Depot is viewed as the stronger investment option due to its superior stock performance, robust growth outlook, and strategic expansions [21][22]. - Lowe's remains a strong competitor with solid operational discipline, but Home Depot's execution and innovation provide a competitive edge [22].

Core Insights - Lowe's is facing challenges in attracting customers due to inflation, tariffs, and an uncertain housing market, despite a slight increase in sales during the second quarter [1] - Customer visits to Lowe's same-store locations decreased by 3.9% year-over-year, indicating a concerning trend in customer behavior [2] - The U.S. housing market challenges and higher labor costs have led professional contractors to focus on smaller projects rather than large home improvements [2][3] Financial Performance - Comparable sales increased by 1.1% year-over-year, while the average customer spending per purchase rose by 2.9%, but comparable transactions declined by 1.8% [7] - Existing-home sales dropped by 0.2% month-over-month in August, with the median existing-home sales price increasing to $422,600, a 2% year-over-year increase [3] Strategic Moves - Lowe's completed an $8.8 billion acquisition of Foundation Building Materials to enhance its offerings to professional customers [5][6] - This acquisition is part of Lowe's strategy to accelerate sales and serve a $250 billion total addressable market [7] - The company previously acquired Artisan Design Group for about $1.3 billion, further expanding its pro offerings [8] Industry Context - Lowe's acquisition strategy mirrors that of Home Depot, which has also increased its Pro offerings in response to similar customer behavior trends [9] - Home Depot recently closed a $5.5 billion acquisition of GMS, enhancing its position in the building materials distribution market [10][11]

Core Insights - Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW) reported a comparable sales growth of 1.1% in Q2 fiscal 2025, with a strong focus on the Pro customer segment, which continues to show growth and confidence in demand supported by stable backlogs [1][8] Group 1: Company Performance - The Pro segment at Lowe's has shown mid-single-digit growth, indicating a robust performance compared to the DIY segment [1] - The recent acquisition of Artisan Design Group (ADG) and the pending buyout of Foundation Building Materials (FBM) are strategic moves to enhance Lowe's presence in the Pro market, particularly in large projects [2] - DIY sales have improved, but many homeowners are postponing larger discretionary projects due to high mortgage rates and low housing turnover, making Pro spending a more resilient growth driver [3] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - Lowe's plans to utilize FBM's job-site delivery network and AI-powered estimating tools to strengthen relationships with professional customers and enhance cross-selling opportunities [3][4] - The combination of capabilities from ADG and FBM is expected to accelerate Lowe's penetration in the Pro market, which offers higher ticket sizes and recurring demand [4][8] Group 3: Market Context - Competitors like Home Depot and Floor & Decor are also focusing on Pro customers, with Home Depot reporting growth in both Pro and DIY segments and Floor & Decor expanding its offerings to capture high-ticket projects [5][6] - The overall market for Pro customers is becoming increasingly competitive, with various companies enhancing their product mix and delivery networks to engage professional contractors [5][6] Group 4: Financial Metrics - Lowe's shares have increased by 5.4% over the past year, while the industry has grown by 8% [7] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates a year-over-year sales growth of 1.6% and earnings growth of 2.8% for Lowe's [10] - Current financial estimates suggest sales of $20.86 billion for the current quarter and $84.99 billion for the current year, with expected growth rates of 3.43% and 1.57% respectively [13]

Core Insights - Lowe's is making an $8.8 billion acquisition of Foundation Building Materials (FBM) to enhance its professional contractor business [2][3] - The acquisition aligns with Lowe's Total Home strategy and aims to capture a share of the $250 billion total addressable market for professional spending [3] - FBM operates over 370 locations in the U.S. and Canada, serving 40,000 professional contractor customers with a focus on building products [3] Industry Context - The acquisition follows Home Depot's recent purchase of GMS to expand its Pro customer base, indicating a competitive landscape focused on professional contractors [4] - Both Lowe's and Home Depot are increasingly relying on professional customers for sales growth as consumer spending declines in the building materials sector [4][5] - Pro builders are seen as more valuable due to their higher spending per project and lower sensitivity to consumer sentiment, as evidenced by Home Depot's Q2 performance [6] Market Potential - The addressable pro market in the U.S. is estimated to be worth over $450 billion annually, presenting significant growth opportunities for companies like Lowe's and Home Depot [7]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported sales of $24 billion for the quarter, with comparable sales increasing by 1.1% [6][24] - Adjusted diluted earnings per share reached $4.33, marking a 5.6% increase compared to the previous year [6][23] - Adjusted gross margin improved to 33.8%, up 37 basis points from last year [25] - Inventory at the end of Q2 was $16.3 billion, down $499 million year-over-year [26] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Positive comparable sales were delivered in nine of the fourteen merchandise divisions, with notable growth in pro and online sales [11][12] - The lawn and garden category saw strong performance, driven by live goods and seasonal offers [12] - Building products, including plumbing repair and drywall, also experienced positive comps, reflecting ongoing momentum in repair and maintenance projects [13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The macro environment remains supportive for homeowners, with strong balance sheets, wage growth, and low unemployment [9] - Analysts estimate approximately $50 billion in deferred project demand due to delayed discretionary projects over the past few years [9] - The need for an estimated 18 million new homes by 2033 indicates a healthy pipeline for home improvement and new construction [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The acquisition of Foundation Building Materials (FBM) is seen as a transformational move to enhance the company's pro offerings and capture a larger share of the $250 billion total addressable market [5][39] - The company aims to integrate FBM's capabilities to improve job site delivery and expand product offerings for pro customers [37][39] - The strategy focuses on leveraging acquisitions to strengthen the pro distribution platform and enhance overall growth potential [38][89] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the long-term outlook for the home improvement industry, driven by aging housing stock and pent-up demand [9][10] - The company anticipates a flat home improvement market for the remainder of the year, with expectations for gradual improvements in underlying business performance [28][72] - Management highlighted the importance of continuous improvement initiatives to navigate the uncertain environment and deliver value to customers [27][60] Other Important Information - The company generated $3.7 billion in free cash flow during the quarter and paid $645 million in dividends [27] - The acquisition of ADG was completed in June, and it is expected to complement the FBM acquisition by offering a comprehensive interior solutions platform [10][41] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you expand on Foundation's year-to-date performance in 2025? - Management refrained from providing specific details until after the transaction closes but expressed excitement about FBM's historical performance [46] Question: What percentage of the 33,000 SKUs will be net new to Lowe's? - Management indicated it is too early to provide specifics but sees significant opportunities for complementary products [47] Question: Can you elaborate on the pro sentiment survey results? - Pros reported stable backlogs and confidence in job prospects, although labor costs are rising [58][60] Question: What is the customer makeup of FBM? - FBM serves about 40,000 customers with a balanced mix of 45% residential and 55% commercial, minimizing concentration risk [68] Question: How does the company plan to leverage the acquisitions? - The combination of FBM and ADG is expected to create differentiation and allow the company to capture a larger share of the pro market [95]

Core Insights - Target reported a decline in net sales of 0.9% for the quarter, an improvement from a 2.8% drop in the first quarter, indicating ongoing struggles amid consumer backlash and tariff pressures [3][4] - Lowe's exceeded expectations for earnings and sales, announcing a deal to acquire Foundation Building Materials, which distributes construction materials, despite DIY products making up 70% of its sales [1][2] Company Performance - Home Depot's net earnings were reported at $4.6 billion, slightly below the expected $4.71 billion, with net sales of $45.2 billion, down from the anticipated $45.3 billion [3][4] - Home Depot's president stated that the results were in line with expectations and reaffirmed a fiscal guidance of 2.8% sales growth for the year [4] Market Trends - CFO Richard McPhail indicated that higher tariff rates on some imported goods could affect prices, but adjustments would not be broad-based, with customers shifting from larger home improvement projects to smaller ones due to uncertainty and higher borrowing costs [5][6] - Foot traffic at Home Depot stores fell by 4.3% in July, while online sales increased by approximately 12% compared to the second quarter of 2024 [9] Upcoming Earnings Reports - Major retailers, including Lowe's and Walmart, are scheduled to report earnings, which may provide insights into how they are managing the impact of higher tariff rates [7][8]

Group 1 - Lowe's exceeded Wall Street's earnings expectations, driven by increased demand for home projects during the quarter [1] - The company announced the acquisition of Foundation Building Materials for approximately $8.8 billion to enhance its business with home professionals [1] - Lowe's revised its full-year sales outlook to a range of $84.5 billion to $85.5 billion, up from the previous range of $83.5 billion to $84.5 billion [2] Group 2 - For fiscal Q2, Lowe's reported a net income of $2.4 billion, or $4.27 per share, compared to $2.38 billion, or $4.17 per share, in the same period last year [3] - Revenue for the quarter increased to $29.36 billion, surpassing expectations of $23.96 billion [6] - The company reiterated its comparable sales forecast, expecting them to be flat to up 1% from the prior year [2]

Core Insights - Home Depot's acquisition of SRS Distribution in 2024 enhances its relationship with professional contractors and expands its product offerings in roofing, landscaping, and pool supplies [1][6] - SRS's planned acquisition of GMS Inc. will further diversify its product range to include drywall, ceilings, and steel framing, thereby broadening its distribution network across North America [2][6] - The integration of SRS and GMS, with over 1,200 locations and more than 8,000 trucks, improves fulfillment and service reliability for professional contractors [3][6] Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Home Depot's second-quarter sales indicates a year-over-year growth of 5.4%, while earnings per share are expected to see a marginal increase of 0.9% [5] - Current quarter sales are estimated at $45.51 billion, with a year-over-year growth estimate of 5.4% [7] - The earnings per share for the current quarter is projected at 4.71, reflecting a year-over-year growth estimate of 0.86% [8] Market Position - Home Depot shares have increased by 10% over the past year, outperforming the industry growth of 6.6% and key competitors like Lowe's and Floor & Decor [8] - The company trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 2.36, which is higher than the industry average of 1.67, indicating a premium valuation compared to peers [9]