Excessive selloffs across sectors triggered by fears of artificial intelligence disruption create opportunities for stock pickers, according to Morgan Stanley strategists. Investors should seek out what the team referred to as AI incumbents, strong growers and high-quality names to take advantage of lower prices and momentum behind adoption of the technology. The investment case for AI adopters with high pricing power continues to strengthen, strategists including Andrew Pauker said. Most Read from Bloo ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total company Q4 adjusted revenue was $4.9 billion, flat year-over-year, with adjusted operating income of $1.7 billion, resulting in an adjusted operating margin of 34.9% [22] - Full year total company adjusted revenue reached $19.8 billion, up 4%, with adjusted operating income of $7.4 billion, resulting in an adjusted operating margin of 37.4%, a decrease of 200 basis points [22] - Total company organic revenue was roughly flat, down approximately 40 basis points in Q4, resulting in annual organic revenue growth of 3.8% [22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Merchant Solutions grew 6% organically for the year, while Financial Solutions grew 2% [22] - Q4 adjusted earnings per share was $1.99, with annual adjusted earnings per share of $8.64, above the guidance range of $8.50-$8.60 [22] - Merchant Solutions organic revenue growth was 1% for the quarter, while adjusted revenue grew 2% [23] - Clover revenue grew 12% in Q4, 2 percentage points higher than guidance, with Clover volume growth of 6% on a reported basis [24] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Clover Capital grew 30% in 2025 in North America, indicating significant upside potential [11] - Internationally, the launch in Brazil was highly successful, with results tracking ahead of plan [11] - Canada experienced strong growth in 2025, expected to accelerate with a new strategic relationship with TD [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on a client-first mindset, building a preeminent small business operating platform through Clover, and delivering operational excellence enabled by AI [7] - The One Fiserv plan is integrated into the 2026 strategy, emphasizing disciplined capital allocation and operational efficiency [6][18] - The company aims to leverage new technologies, especially AI, to capitalize on opportunities in embedded finance and stablecoins [20] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the multi-quarter path towards delivering strong, sustainable operating performance [4] - The company acknowledged that Q4 results were below expectations but emphasized the importance of investing in the franchise [5] - Management is confident in the strategy and ability to execute, highlighting the unique position in the financial ecosystem [19] Other Important Information - The company repurchased 3 million shares during the quarter for approximately $200 million and paid down over $1 billion in debt [29] - Project Elevate incurred $73 million of expenses in Q4, with ongoing one-time costs expected in 2026 [29] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you touch on whether the review of the business has accomplished everything needed? - Management feels great about the progress and is confident in the numbers going forward, with no new surprises [36] Question: Can you provide an update on digital payments and pricing actions? - Management noted sequential improvement in digital payments and good volume growth, particularly in debit processing [40][42] Question: How much of the expenses for One Fiserv are structural versus one-time? - Management indicated that expenses related to One Fiserv are largely baked in, with some increase expected as the project broadens [48] Question: What do you expect from the non-Clover part of SMB? - Management expects slight growth in the non-Clover SMB for next year, with Argentina no longer being a growth factor [54] Question: Can you discuss Clover yield and areas for durable value? - Management is optimistic about yield growth through vertical expansions and value-added services embedded in Clover [60]

Core Priorities - The company has identified three strategic priorities for the upcoming year: enhancing the core, extending reach, and accelerating innovation [2] - Enhancing the core focuses on increasing sales and retaining customers across the portfolio, with a specific example being the migration of BP as a key initiative [2]

Core Insights - The Inelastic Market Hypothesis (IMH) suggests that for every $1 of capital flows, the market's aggregate value changes by approximately $5, indicating significant market volatility compared to underlying fundamentals [2][3] - The Federal Reserve's quantitative easing (QE) and the rise of passive investing have created inelastic demand in the market, distorting price signals and leading to misallocated capital [5][8] - The current market environment is characterized by a high level of kinetic energy due to concentrated capital flows into U.S. indexes, which poses risks of sudden market corrections [11][13] Market Dynamics - The price elasticity of demand in the stock market is relatively low, meaning that price increases do not significantly dampen buying demand, while price decreases do not substantially increase demand [3] - Passive investing has become a dominant driver of equity prices, with estimates suggesting that for every $1 of passive inflows, the market's aggregate value increases by approximately $3 to $8 [8] - The market is increasingly acting like a casino, with a proliferation of leveraged ETFs and options trading, which adds volatility and risk to the investment landscape [9][10] Investment Strategy - The company employs a valuation-disciplined investment process that is highly price elastic, allowing for aggressive buying during market downturns and risk shedding during periods of greed [4] - The strategy focuses on diversifying portfolios by mixing potential energy (value) with kinetic energy (momentum), particularly in sectors like healthcare and materials that offer attractive free cash flow yields [18][21] - The company has identified Amazon as a compelling investment opportunity due to its strong balance sheet and potential benefits from AI, while exiting positions in companies like Expedia due to emerging competitive threats [21][22] Performance Overview - The ClearBridge Value Strategy underperformed its benchmark, the Russell 1000 Value Index, during a period of subdued returns for value stocks [17][24] - Stock selection in the healthcare sector contributed positively to performance, while the financials sector detracted from returns due to declines in specific holdings [19][20] - The strategy continues to find opportunities in undervalued stocks with high free cash flow yields, particularly in sectors that have fallen out of favor [18][24]