21 July 2025 | 4:04PM CST China Healthcare: 1H25 preview: UIH bottom out/MR still in trough; Weak IVD/cataract, strong insulin Per our recent conversations with clients, we see focus areas for investors include: Medtech: 1) The progress of capital equipment VBP and the subsequent stimulus strength of the trade-in policy, 2) progress of channel destocking, 3) import substitution trend post VBPs (incl. IOLs and IVD); Retail pharmacies: 1) market-clearing trend, 2) policy impact from Four-Same policy; Hospital ...

Core Viewpoint - Walgreens Boots Alliance reported a narrower-than-expected loss of $175 million in its third quarter, as the company approaches the end of its tenure as a publicly traded entity [2][3]. Financial Performance - For the fiscal third quarter ending May 31, Walgreens experienced a 7% increase in sales, reaching $39 billion, despite a loss of $175 million, which is a decrease of $519 million compared to net earnings of $344 million in the same period last year [3]. - The U.S. Retail Pharmacy segment sales rose nearly 8% to $39.7 billion compared to the previous year, although retail sales within that segment decreased by 5%, leading to a 30% drop in adjusted operating income to $350 million from $501 million [5]. Strategic Developments - Walgreens is in the process of completing a sale to Sycamore Partners for over $10 billion, with a special shareholder meeting scheduled for July 11 to vote on the deal [3][4]. - The Sycamore deal includes a payment of $11.45 per share, which is 29% above the stock price from December [4]. - The total value of the Sycamore deal exceeds $23 billion when including debt and other items [7]. Operational Challenges - The company has faced significant challenges, including a disastrous rollout of in-store clinics, leading to numerous pharmacy closures and a decline in stock value [4][9]. - Walgreens has lost more than $3.2 billion, or $3.81 per share, for the nine-month period ending May 31, compared to a loss of $5.6 billion, or $6.53 per share, in the previous year [10]. Future Outlook - The CEO emphasized the need for a turnaround plan that requires time and a balanced approach to manage future cash needs while making necessary investments [6].

Core Insights - The healthcare sector is significantly influenced by major players like UnitedHealth Group and CVS Health, both of which integrate insurance and care delivery [1][2] - UnitedHealth's recent challenges include rising medical costs and regulatory shifts, while CVS is seen as a strong value play with a clear turnaround strategy [2] UnitedHealth Group (UNH) - UNH reported first-quarter revenues of $109.6 billion and adjusted net income of $6.6 billion, maintaining a 6% net margin [3] - The company missed earnings estimates once in the past four quarters, with an average surprise of 1.2% [4] - Medical costs surged 11.7% in the first quarter, following a 9.2% rise in 2024, with expectations of over 16% growth in 2025 [5] - UNH's pharmacy benefit manager, Optum Rx, may face regulatory challenges affecting pricing power [6] - The new CEO, Steve Hemsley, has pledged to rebuild shareholder trust after the company's first earnings miss in nearly two decades [7] CVS Health Corporation (CVS) - CVS reported first-quarter revenues of $94.6 billion and net income of $1.8 billion, with adjusted EPS of $2.25, beating last year's $1.31 by 31.6% [8][10] - The Health Care Benefits segment's medical benefit ratio improved to 87.3%, reflecting better cost control [8] - CVS has consistently beaten earnings estimates in the past four quarters, with an average surprise of 18.1% [9] - The company raised its 2025 EPS guidance to $6.00-$6.20, up from $5.75-$6.00, and anticipates $500 million in savings from retail store closures [10][14] - CVS's diversified model is showing momentum with rising retail script volumes and improved operating income across segments [12] Comparative Analysis - Zacks Consensus Estimates favor CVS, with upward revisions in EPS estimates, while UNH has seen multiple downward revisions [15] - CVS trades at a forward P/E of 10.31, compared to UNH's 12.98, indicating a more attractive risk-reward profile for CVS [16] - Year-to-date, UNH shares have dropped 39% due to medical cost concerns, while CVS shares have increased by 49.4% [18] Conclusion - UnitedHealth faces challenges with cost control and guidance uncertainties, while CVS is executing a successful turnaround with improving margins and positive analyst sentiment [21][22] - For investors seeking upside potential, CVS Health is positioned as the stronger investment option in the current healthcare landscape [22]

Company Overview - Walgreens Boots Alliance, Inc. (WBA) has opened a new micro-fulfillment center (MFC) in Brooklyn Park, MN, aimed at streamlining prescription processing and enhancing personalized care for patients [1] - The MFC will support nearly 200 Walgreens stores across the Midwest, processing approximately 13 million prescriptions annually and creating over 175 jobs in the area [2] Operational Efficiency - Walgreens operates a network of 12 MFCs that support over 5,000 stores in the U.S., fulfilling more than 3.5 million prescriptions weekly, resulting in a 24% year-over-year increase in shipped volumes [3] - Approximately 40% of a store's total prescription volume is managed by MFCs, which also implemented a recycling program that recycled 3.7 million pounds of materials in fiscal 2024 [4] Industry Prospects - The retail pharmacy market is projected to reach $640 billion by 2033, growing at a compound annual growth rate of 3.5% from 2026 to 2033, driven by an aging population and increased demand for healthcare services [5] Financial Performance - Year-to-date, WBA's shares have increased by 19.8%, outperforming the industry's growth of 18.3% and the S&P 500's rise of 0.2% during the same period [6] Market Position - Walgreens currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), indicating a stable market position [7]

Economic Indicators - Initial Jobless Claims rose to 241K, exceeding the expected 225K and the revised previous week's 223K, marking the highest level since February [3] - Continuing Claims surpassed 1.9 million, reaching 1.916 million, the highest since November 2021, indicating potential labor market weakness [4] Q1 Earnings Reports - Eli Lilly (LLY) reported earnings of $3.34 per share, missing expectations by 5%, but revenues of $12.73 billion exceeded projections and last year's $8.77 billion, driven by strong sales of the weight-loss drug Mounjaro [5] - McDonald's (MCD) posted earnings of $2.67 per share, slightly above consensus, but revenues of $5.96 billion missed expectations, with same-store sales at their lowest in five years [6] - CVS Health (CVS) beat earnings expectations with $2.25 per share, a 31.6% surprise, and revenues of $94.59 billion, up 1.76% from estimates, contributing to a 48% year-to-date gain [7] - Wayfair (W) reported a surprise profit of $0.10 per share, compared to an expected loss of $0.18, with revenues of $2.73 billion slightly above estimates, leading to a 6% increase in shares [8] Market Expectations - Anticipation for S&P Manufacturing PMI and ISM Manufacturing data, with S&P expected to slightly decrease to 50.6, while ISM is projected to drop to 47.8, indicating potential contraction [9] - Construction Spending for March is expected to decline to +0.2% from +0.7% in February, reflecting potential shifts in trade policy [10] Upcoming Earnings - Amazon (AMZN) and Apple (AAPL) are set to report Q1 earnings after the market closes, along with other companies like Mastercard (MA), Amgen (AMGN), and Twilio (TWLO) [11]