Core Viewpoint - Super Micro Computer experienced a significant stock rally of 60.8% in the first half of the year, recovering from challenges faced in the latter half of 2024, including a short-seller attack and auditor resignation [1][2]. Financial Validation and Stock Performance - In February, Super Micro's new auditor, BDO, approved the company's financials for the previous three years, which helped restore investor confidence despite an adverse opinion on internal controls [2][3]. - Following the auditor's validation, Super Micro's stock surged to over $66 per share in early February, reflecting optimism in the AI sector [3]. Market Challenges - The stock rally was short-lived due to the impact of the Trump Administration's tariff war, which affected Super Micro's international supply chain [4]. - The company reported disappointing earnings in the December and March quarters, with revenue growth of 54.9% and 19.5%, respectively, falling short of expectations [5]. Management Insights and Future Outlook - Management attributed the revenue misses to delays in the release of Nvidia's Blackwell chips, which began production in late 2024, and forecasted a 30% sequential revenue increase for the June quarter [7]. - A significant multi-year, $20 billion deal with Saudi Arabian data center operator Datavolt provided a positive boost to Super Micro's stock following its announcement [8]. Valuation and Investor Sentiment - Despite the first-half rally, Super Micro's stock remains below its 2024 highs, trading at 16 times next year's earnings estimates, which is considered reasonable for a high-powered AI stock [9]. - Concerns over uneven growth, margin questions, and lingering investor hesitance from the previous year's short-seller attack have limited the company's valuation [9].

Core Insights - Super Micro Computer's stock has surged nearly 10x over the last three years, driven by demand for server systems linked to generative AI, despite facing an 80% drawdown in 2024 due to regulatory concerns and accounting allegations [2] - The company is projected to grow its revenue by nearly 48% to $22 billion in FY'25 and by 35% to around $30 billion in FY'26, supported by strong expenditure on data center services [3][4] - Super Micro's competitive advantages include customizable and energy-efficient products, with expectations that liquid-cooling systems will be installed in 30% of server racks shipped next year [5] Revenue Growth - Super Micro is expected to achieve significant revenue growth, with projections of $22 billion in FY'25 and $30 billion in FY'26, driven by tech companies enhancing AI capabilities [3] - The company is positioned to benefit from Nvidia's increased production of Blackwell GPUs, which will likely boost demand for its servers [3][4] Competitive Position - Super Micro's products are closely integrated with Nvidia's GPU ecosystem, allowing it to quickly provide compatible server systems [4] - The company is enhancing its production capacity and is expected to see a shift towards higher-end products, particularly in liquid cooling technology [5] Margin Improvement - Adjusted net margins are projected to improve from 6.4% in the first nine months of FY'25 to approximately 12% by FY'28, driven by economies of scale and a favorable product mix [7][8] - The company has effectively addressed technical challenges associated with liquid cooling, which may provide a competitive edge in the AI hardware market [8] Valuation and Earnings Potential - If revenues increase by 2.5x and margins double by FY'27, earnings could rise by about 5x, potentially stabilizing the P/E multiple around 10x [9] - This scenario could lead to Super Micro's stock price exceeding $100 per share in the medium term, contingent on continued revenue growth and margin improvement [9]

Core Insights - The stock market has experienced volatility in the first half of 2025, but several companies have shown impressive returns driven by AI momentum, energy sector strength, and bold corporate strategies [1] Company Performance - Palantir Technologies (PLTR) has achieved an 80.07% year-to-date return, significantly outperforming the broader market, driven by its growing role in AI and expanding government business [2][3] - NRG Energy (NRG) follows closely with a 77.99% gain, supported by strong Q1 earnings and the acquisition of natural gas power plants, which increased its generation capacity [6] - Howmet Aerospace (HWM) reported a 71.90% return, benefiting from the global rebound in air travel and rising demand for aircraft components [8] - Seagate Technology (STX) surged 66.20%, capitalizing on the growing need for data storage solutions for AI infrastructure [8] - Supermicro (SMCI) jumped 60.92%, driven by its role in building AI-optimized servers [8] - GE Vernova (GEV) climbed 60.87% amid increasing investor interest in renewables and grid modernization [10] - Newmont (NEM) gained 56.52%, driven by rising gold prices due to inflation concerns and a weaker dollar [10] - Uber (UBER) rose 54.71%, benefiting from strong performance in its mobility and delivery businesses [10] - GE Aerospace (GE) advanced 54.54% on strong demand in commercial and defense aviation [10] - CVS Health (CVS) increased by 53.00%, supported by restructuring efforts and a push into healthcare services [11] - Jabil (JBL) rose 51.47%, backed by steady demand in consumer electronics and automotive markets [11]

Core Viewpoint - Super Micro Computer (SMCI) has seen a significant stock price increase, attributed to broader market gains and potential geopolitical easing, which may benefit global supply chains crucial for AI and data center sectors [2] Group 1: Recent Stock Performance - SMCI stock surged nearly 10% in the last week and is up approximately 58% year-to-date [2] - The stock's recent gains are linked to potential renewed discussions with Iran, indicating a possible easing of geopolitical tensions [2] Group 2: Financial Strategies - Super Micro plans to issue $2 billion in convertible notes maturing in 2030 to enhance liquidity for capacity expansion [3] - This issuance may dilute existing shareholders but is aimed at meeting increasing demand [3] Group 3: Market Position and Product Development - Super Micro's server products are closely tied to Nvidia's GPU ecosystem, allowing the company to quickly adapt to Nvidia's latest releases [4] - The company is positioned to benefit significantly as Nvidia's Blackwell-based systems expand, serving as a key supplier of high-density GPU servers [4] Group 4: Valuation Metrics - SMCI stock appears fairly valued at its current market price of $47.50, with a comparison of its valuation metrics against the S&P 500 [5] - The price-to-sales (P/S) ratio for SMCI is 1.4 compared to 3.1 for the S&P 500, indicating it may be slightly undervalued [6] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stands at 25.4 versus 26.9 for the S&P 500, further supporting the valuation perspective [6] Group 5: Revenue Growth - Super Micro has recorded an average revenue growth rate of 68.1% over the past three years, significantly outpacing the S&P 500's 5.5% [7] - Revenues increased by 82.5% from $12 billion to $22 billion in the last 12 months, compared to a 5.5% growth for the S&P 500 [7] - Quarterly revenues grew by 19.5% to $4.6 billion from $3.9 billion a year ago, while the S&P 500 saw a 4.8% rise [7] Group 6: Profitability Analysis - Super Micro's operating income over the last four quarters reached $1.3 billion, reflecting a low operating margin of 6.1% [8] - The operating cash flow (OCF) during this period was $148 million, indicating a very low OCF margin of 0.7% compared to 14.9% for the S&P 500 [8] - Net income for the last four quarters was $1.2 billion, showing a low net income margin of 5.3% relative to 11.6% for the S&P 500 [8] Group 7: Financial Stability - Super Micro's debt stood at $2.5 billion with a market capitalization of $28 billion, resulting in a strong debt-to-equity ratio of 8.6% [9] - Cash and cash equivalents amount to $2.5 billion, constituting a cash-to-assets ratio of 23.6% [9] Group 8: Resilience During Downturns - SMCI stock has shown greater resilience than the S&P 500 during recent downturns, recovering fully from significant declines [10][11][12] - The stock's performance during past crises indicates a capacity for recovery, although profitability remains a concern [13] Group 9: Overall Assessment - Super Micro Computer exhibits a mixed fundamental profile with extremely strong growth, very weak profitability, very strong financial stability, and strong downturn resilience [14] - The stock is considered fairly priced, but caution is advised due to profitability concerns and corporate governance issues [13][14]

Super Micro Computer’s (NASDAQ: SMCI )(NEOE: SMCI:CA ) share price has cooled after its early-2025 melt-up, yet the fundamentals underpinning the specialist server maker have only strengthened. In the March-quarter the company still booked $4.60 billion of"AWS Certified AI Practitioner Early Adopter"I am a DevOps Engineer for a major, wholly owned subsidiary of a large-cap Fortune 500. I am a true subject-matter expert on the actual buildout, deployment, and maintenance of AI tools and applications. I have ...

Super Micro Computer shares fell about 6% on Monday after the server maker said it plans to offer $2 billion in convertible notes, maturing in 2030. A company's stock often falls on the announcement of a convertible offering because the eventual conversion to equity could dilute existing shareholders' stakes. Super Micro, which has seen its business boom due to soaring demand for Nvidia's artificial intelligence processors, said in a press release that it plans to use the proceeds from the offering for "gen ...

Shares of Super Micro Computer (SMCI -6.10%) are falling on Wednesday. The stock lost 6.7% as of 1:36 p.m. ET, and as much as 7.1% earlier in the day. The leg down comes as the S&P 500 (^GSPC -0.24%) gained 0.4% and the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC -0.59%) lost 0.1% on the day.A miss from SupermicroThe artificial intelligence (AI) server provider released its Q3 2025 earnings yesterday after the market closed. The numbers underwhelmed investors.Supermicro reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.31 on re ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q3 2025, the company reported net revenue of $4.6 billion, a decrease of 19% quarter over quarter but an increase of 19% year over year [21][24] - Non-GAAP EPS for Q3 was $0.31, down from $0.66 in the previous year, primarily due to an inventory write-down of older generation GPUs [10][26] - Non-GAAP gross margin for Q3 was 9.7%, down 220 basis points from 11.9% in Q2, attributed to higher inventory reserves and lower volumes [24][25] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - AI GPU platforms accounted for over 70% of revenues, with enterprise and cloud service provider markets driving demand [21] - Revenue from the enterprise channel was $1.9 billion, representing 42% of total revenues, up from 25% in the previous quarter [22] - OEM appliance and large data center vertical revenues were $2.6 billion, representing 57% of Q3 revenues, down from 75% in the last quarter [23] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - By geography, the US represented 60% of Q3 revenues, Asia 30%, Europe 6%, and the rest of the world 4% [24] - Year over year, US revenues increased by 3%, Asia by 77%, while Europe decreased by 3% [24] - China continued to represent less than 1% of sales in Q3 [24] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on expanding its market share in IT and AI despite macroeconomic challenges and tariff impacts [9] - Introduction of the DCBBS (Data Center Building Block Solutions) aims to streamline data center deployment and reduce costs [12][13] - The company is committed to enhancing its domestic manufacturing capacity and expanding operations in Malaysia, Taiwan, and Europe [16][18] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in meeting long-term growth targets despite near-term macroeconomic uncertainties [19] - For Q4, the company anticipates revenues of at least $6 billion, with expectations for strong growth driven by new product launches [19][30] - Management noted that while there are concerns regarding tariffs and macroeconomic conditions, they see strong order momentum [35][36] Other Important Information - The company recorded a net cash position of $44 million, a significant improvement from a negative net cash position of $479 million in the previous quarter [27] - The company expects Q4 GAAP diluted EPS to be in the range of $0.30 to $0.40, and non-GAAP diluted EPS to be $0.40 to $0.50 [29][30] Q&A Session Summary Question: Are customers pulling back orders due to macroeconomic conditions? - Management noted that while there are concerns, they see strong orders and expect a strong quarter in June [35][36] Question: What is the outlook for gross margins? - Management indicated that gross margins are impacted by tariffs and the transition to new technology platforms, leading to a more cautious outlook [38][39] Question: Is the $40 billion revenue target for fiscal 2026 still in place? - Management remains confident in long-term growth but did not provide specific guidance for fiscal 2026 at this time [42][45] Question: How is the demand for different product lines? - There is strong demand for both GB 200 MVL 72 and liquid cooling solutions, but some customers are delaying decisions [46][47] Question: What is the impact of tariffs on operations? - Management is closely monitoring the tariff situation and adjusting logistics to minimize impact [88] Question: What is the status of the CFO search? - The company is actively looking for a new CFO to support its growth [104]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q3 2025, the company's net revenue was $4.6 billion, which represents a 19% increase year-over-year but a 19% decrease quarter-over-quarter [18][7] - Non-GAAP EPS for Q3 was $0.31, down from $0.66 in the previous year, primarily due to an inventory write-down of older generation GPUs [8][23] - Non-GAAP gross margin for Q3 was 9.7%, down 220 basis points from 11.9% in Q2, attributed to higher inventory reserves and lower volume [21][22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - AI GPU platforms accounted for over 70% of revenues, with significant contributions from both enterprise and cloud service provider markets [18] - The enterprise channel vertical generated $1.9 billion, representing 42% of revenues, up from 25% in the previous quarter [19] - OEM appliance and large data center vertical revenues were $2.6 billion, representing 57% of Q3 revenues, down from 75% in the last quarter [20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - By geography, the US accounted for 60% of Q3 revenues, Asia 30%, Europe 6%, and the rest of the world 4% [21] - Year-over-year, US revenues increased by 3%, Asia by 77%, while Europe decreased by 3% [21] - China represented less than 1% of sales in Q3 [21] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on expanding its market share in IT and AI despite macroeconomic challenges and tariff impacts [7] - The introduction of the DCBBS (Data Center Building Block Solutions) aims to streamline data center deployment and reduce costs [10][11] - The company is committed to enhancing its domestic manufacturing capacity and expanding operations in Malaysia, Taiwan, and Europe [14][15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in meeting long-term growth targets despite near-term macroeconomic uncertainties [16] - For Q4, the company anticipates revenues of at least $6 billion, with expectations for continued growth driven by new product launches [16][25] - Management noted that customer order trends remain strong, with expectations for a robust June quarter [31][32] Other Important Information - The company recorded a net expense of $31.7 million in other income and expenses for Q3, primarily due to interest expenses and foreign exchange impacts [22] - Cash flow generated from operations for Q3 was $627 million, a significant improvement from a cash flow usage of $240 million in the previous quarter [23][24] - The company amended the terms of its existing convertible notes and raised $700 million in gross proceeds from a new convertible note offering [24] Q&A Session Summary Question: Customer order trends in light of macroeconomic conditions - Management indicated that while tariffs and macroeconomic uncertainties concern some customers, they still see strong orders and expect a strong June quarter [31][32] Question: Changes in gross margin expectations - Management noted that gross margin expectations are impacted by tariff concerns and the transition from older technology platforms to newer ones [35][36] Question: Midterm demand outlook and revenue targets - Management remains confident in midterm growth and demand, particularly for new products like Blackwell and DCBBS solutions [40][42] Question: Differences in demand between product lines - Management observed strong demand for both GB 200 MVL 72 and liquid cooling solutions, but noted some delays in customer decision-making [45][46] Question: Impact of inventory reserves on margins - Management clarified that inventory reserves significantly impacted margins in Q3, but they expect lower reserves in Q4 [77][79] Question: Platform decisions affecting customer orders - Management confirmed that customers are transitioning to newer platforms, which has influenced order timing and inventory reserves [81][84] Question: U.S. domestic manufacturing advantages - Management emphasized the benefits of U.S. manufacturing in responding quickly to new technologies and mitigating tariff impacts [87][88] Question: Supplier allocations and GPU availability - Management acknowledged ongoing allocation challenges but noted improvements compared to previous periods [93] Question: Capacity and CapEx reconciliation - Management confirmed that capacity remains robust, with ongoing investments in expanding production capabilities [96][98]

Charles Liang, CEO of Super Micro, speaks at the HumanX AI conference at in Las Vegas on March 10, 2025.Super Micro issued disappointing guidance on Tuesday, a week after the server maker provided preliminary results for the latest quarter that fell far shy of Wall Street's expectations. The stock slid about 4% in extended trading. Here's what the company reported in comparison with LSEG consensus:Earnings per share: 31 cents adjusted vs. 50 cents expectedRevenue: $4.60 billion vs. $5.42 billion expectedWhi ...