软商品日报 2026/02/04 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和 建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形 下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使 独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相关 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Date: December 26, 2025 [1] - Report Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220), Reviewed by Tang Yun (Z0002422) [2] Group 2: Sugar Market Core View - Short - term basis repair is completed, and further upward movement is difficult. With multiple factors affecting the market, the sugar price is under pressure to fall [3] Price and Spread Data - Sugar futures: SR01 closed at 5294 with a daily decline of 1.3% and a weekly increase of 2.26%; SR03 closed at 5287 with a daily increase of 0.28% and a weekly increase of 3.46%; etc [4] - Sugar basis: On December 25, 2025, the basis of Nanning - SR01 was - 24 with a daily increase of 28 and a weekly decrease of 102; etc [9] - Import price: On December 26, 2025, the in - quota price of Brazilian sugar imports was 4157 with a daily increase of 15 and a weekly increase of 75; the out - of - quota price was 5270 with a daily increase of 20 and a weekly increase of 98; etc [12] Group 3: Cotton Market Core View - In the short term, there is still hedging pressure on cotton prices to be digested. In the long term, if the supply expectation remains unchanged, the cotton supply - demand in the new year may be tight, and cotton prices have room to rise. Attention should be paid to downstream orders before the holiday [14] Price and Spread Data - Cotton and cotton yarn futures: Cotton01 closed at 14565 with an increase of 270 (1.89%); Cotton05 closed at 14535 with an increase of 280 (1.96%); etc [15] - Cotton and cotton yarn spreads: The cotton basis was 782 with a daily decrease of 242; the spread of cotton01 - 05 was 30 with a daily decrease of 10; etc [15] Group 4: Apple Market Core View - The overall trading of late Fuji inventory is slow, and transactions are mostly on - demand. Merchants' restocking is temporarily over [18] Price and Spread Data - Apple futures: AP01 closed at 9694 with a daily increase of 0.03% and a weekly increase of 1.14%; AP03 closed at 9360 with a daily increase of 0.61% and a weekly increase of 0.8%; etc [19] - Apple spreads: The spread of AP01 - 05 was 483 with a daily increase of 2.11% and a weekly increase of 16.39%; etc [19] Group 5: Red Date Market Core View - In the short term, red date prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level. In the long term, the overall supply - demand of red dates in the new year in China is loose, and prices will still be under pressure [26] Price and Spread Data - Red date futures spreads: The spread of red date futures (01 - 05) shows certain trends in different years; etc [27]

Market Trends - Robusta coffee futures experienced a decline in London [1] - The decline is attributed to traders weighing increased shipments from Vietnam against an anticipated typhoon in the nation's primary production area [1] Production & Supply Chain - Vietnam's robusta coffee shipments are currently strong [1] - A typhoon is forecasted to impact Vietnam's key coffee-producing region [1]

Market Trends - London coffee futures are on track for a second consecutive week of gains [1] - Concerns are easing regarding the impact of storms in Vietnam, the world's largest robusta coffee producer [1]

Market Trends - Arabica coffee prices declined for a second day in New York [1] - Forecasted rain in Brazil eased concerns about dry weather impact on the next season's crop [1] Crop Conditions - Brazil is the top grower of Arabica coffee [1]

Market Trends - Arabica coffee futures climbed in New York due to concerns [1] - Dry weather in top grower Brazil is a key factor [1] Crop Development - Crucial phase of crop development is impacted [1]

Market Trends - Arabica coffee futures declined in New York [1] - Rainfall in Brazil, the world's top producer, is expected to lead to a bumper crop [1] Production Outlook - Increased rainfall in Brazil is boosting expectations for a large Arabica coffee crop [1]

Market Trends - Arabica coffee prices fell in New York [1] - Favorable weather in Brazil is expected to boost the next season's coffee crop [1] Geopolitics & Trade - Tensions with the US are stifling trade [1]

Market Trends - Arabica coffee futures in New York rose for the ninth consecutive session [1] - Arabica coffee futures reached a three-month high [1] Supply Chain - Coffee stockpiles are decreasing [1] - Shipments from Brazil, the top producer, are stalling [1]

Market Trends - Arabica coffee futures reached a two-month high in New York [1] - Concerns exist that cold weather and light frost may reduce output in Brazil, the top grower [1]