Robusta coffee steadied after falling to a seven-month low on expectations of record Brazilian output of high-end arabica beans, which could ease demand for the cheaper variety https://t.co/EQ5kwAkxTL ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Sugar**: The recent trend of sugar futures is strong, mainly driven by the increase in oil prices. Rising international oil prices have led to higher ethanol prices in Brazil. The sugar - alcohol price ratio favors ethanol production, causing sugar mills to increase the sugar - alcohol ratio and reduce the sugar - making ratio. The market's expectation of tightened sugar supply has increased. Additionally, sugar's valuation is at a relatively low level, with a need for repair, so the short - term strong pattern is expected to continue [3]. - **Cotton**: The current expectation of tight domestic supply and demand still strongly supports cotton prices, making them prone to rise. However, the high price difference between domestic and foreign cotton exerts pressure on the upside of cotton prices. Attention should be paid to the ongoing geopolitical conflict in the Middle East and changes in US foreign trade policies [14]. - **Apple**: The current apple futures market is running strongly, driven by both fundamental factors and delivery logic. The scarcity of delivery products for the 05 contract is prominent, providing strong short - term support to the market [20]. - **Jujube**: As the new planting season has not arrived, the market focus remains on the demand side. Currently, downstream sales are mediocre, and restocking is light. In the short term, due to geopolitical conflicts, market funds are flowing, but the driving force for jujube prices is limited. Under overall loose domestic supply and demand, there is still pressure on the upside of jujube prices, and they may mainly fluctuate at low levels to build a bottom [28]. 3. Summary by Commodity Sugar - **Price and Spread**: On March 13, 2026, SR01 closed at 5603, with a daily increase of 0.63% and a weekly increase of 1.82%. The price differences between different contracts also showed corresponding changes. For example, SR01 - 05 was 152, up 6 from the previous day and 19 from the previous week [4]. - **Basis**: The basis between different regions (Nanning, Kunming) and different contracts also changed. For example, the Nanning - SR01 basis on March 12, 2026, was - 148, up 1 from the previous day but down 35 from the previous week [9]. - **Import Price**: The quota - in and quota - out import prices of Brazilian and Thai sugar changed. For example, the Brazilian import quota - in price on March 13, 2026, was 4068, down 32 from the previous day but up 92 from the previous week [12]. Cotton - **Futures Price**: On the reporting date, cotton 01 closed at 15805, down 70 or - 0.44%. The prices of other contracts also changed accordingly. The price differences between different contracts and the basis of cotton also had different changes [15]. Apple - **Price Change**: On March 13, 2026, AP05 closed at 9998, with a daily increase of 0.14% but a weekly decrease of 3.08%. The prices of different contracts and spot prices in different regions also showed corresponding fluctuations [21]. Jujube - **Futures Spread**: The price differences between different jujube futures contracts (01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) showed certain trends over time [29][31].

Group 1: Sugar Core View - Current fundamental factors provide some upward momentum for sugar, but the international raw sugar is still under pressure at the previous support level of 14 cents, and the capital side appears weak, so the rebound space is expected to be limited [3] Key Points - Sugar futures prices and spreads: SR01 closed at 5464 with a daily increase of 0.76% and a weekly increase of 1.81%; SR03 closed at 5283 with a daily increase of 0.61% and a weekly increase of 0.61%; SR05 closed at 5324 with a daily increase of 0.74% and a weekly increase of 1.33%; SR07 closed at 5332 with a daily increase of 0.64% and a weekly increase of 1.3%; SR09 closed at 5335 with a daily increase of 0.64% and a weekly increase of 1.45%; SR11 closed at 5348 with a daily increase of 0.66% and a weekly increase of 1.58%; SB closed at 13.96 with a daily decrease of 0.14% and a weekly increase of 0.72%; W closed at 408.2 with a daily increase of 0.29% and a weekly increase of 0.32% [4] - Sugar basis: On February 26, 2026, the basis of Nanning - SR01 was -93 with a daily decrease of 28 and a weekly decrease of 43; the basis of Kunming - SR01 was -253 with a daily decrease of 28 and a weekly decrease of 48; and so on for other contracts [11] - Sugar import price changes: On February 27, 2026, the in - quota price of Brazilian sugar imports was 4029 with no daily change and a weekly increase of 129; the out - of - quota price was 5103 with no daily change and a weekly increase of 168; for Thai sugar imports, the in - quota price was 3980 with no daily change and a weekly increase of 89; the out - of - quota price was 5040 with a daily increase of 1 and a weekly increase of 117 [14] Group 2: Cotton Core View - The expectation of tight domestic cotton supply and demand remains unchanged, and the expected reduction in the cotton area in Xinjiang provides support, but the high spread between domestic and foreign cotton restricts the price increase. The adjustment of US tariff policies is beneficial to textile and clothing exports. The expected improvement in US cotton exports and the expected decline in production drive its price to rebound, which in turn drives up the price of Zhengzhou cotton. Attention should be paid to the implementation of peak - season demand [16] Key Points - Cotton and cotton yarn futures prices: Cotton 01 closed at 15725 with an increase of 60 and a daily increase rate of 0.38%; Cotton 05 closed at 15395 with an increase of 45 and a daily increase rate of 0.29%; Cotton 09 closed at 15395 with an increase of 30 and a daily increase rate of 0.2%; Cotton yarn 01 closed at 0 with a decrease of 100%; Cotton yarn 05 closed at 21245 with a decrease of 10 and a daily decrease rate of 0.05%; Cotton yarn 09 closed at 21295 with an increase of 20 and a daily increase rate of 0.09% [17] - Cotton and cotton yarn spreads: The cotton basis was 1318 with a daily decrease of 13; the spread between Cotton 01 - 05 was 330 with a daily increase of 15; the spread between Cotton 05 - 09 was 0 with a daily increase of 15; the spread between Cotton 09 - 01 was -330 with a daily decrease of 30; the spread between cotton and yarn was 5895 with a daily decrease of 20; the spread between domestic and foreign cotton was 3798 with a daily increase of 251; the spread between domestic and foreign yarn was 67 with a daily increase of 15 [17] Group 3: Apple Core View - The disk logic continues to revolve around fundamental and short - term delivery issues. The short - term weakening of post - holiday demand suppresses the disk, but the delivery contradiction provides support, so the downward space is limited [22] Key Points - Apple futures and spot prices: On February 27, 2026, AP01 closed at 8316 with a daily decrease of 0.3% and a weekly increase of 1.30%; AP03 closed at 8650 with a daily decrease of 9.16% and a weekly decrease of 8.5%; AP04 closed at 9549 with a daily decrease of 0.93% and a weekly decrease of 0.69%; AP05 closed at 9760 with a daily decrease of 0.4% and a weekly increase of 0.22%; AP10 closed at 8451 with a daily decrease of 0.65% and a weekly increase of 1.60%; AP11 closed at 8270 with a daily decrease of 0.49% and a weekly increase of 1.47%; AP12 closed at 8327 with a daily increase of 0.17% and a weekly increase of 2.21% [23] - Apple spreads and other data: The spread between AP01 - 05 was -1458 with a daily increase of 1.18% and a weekly increase of 0.69%; the spread between AP05 - 10 was 1293 with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 3.72%; the spread between AP10 - 01 was 165 with a daily increase of 11.49% and a weekly increase of 57.14%; the disk profit was -772 with a daily increase of 6.34% and a weekly increase of 34.73%; the delivery theoretical price was 9400 with no change; the main basis was -372 with a daily increase of 14.11% and a weekly increase of 115.03% [23] Group 4: Red Dates Core View - The production of red dates in the 2025/2026 season has been finalized, and the market focus has shifted to changes in demand. Attention should be paid to the post - holiday replenishment demand of downstream customers. The overall supply - demand pattern of domestic red dates is loose, and the short - term price of red dates will still face downward pressure and may maintain a low - level shock [30] Key Points - Red date futures spreads: Data on the spreads between different contracts such as 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01 are presented in the form of historical trends [31][33] - Red date prices: The price trends of main production areas in Xinjiang (Aksu, Alar, Kashgar) and main sales areas (Hebei, Henan) are shown [34]

Group 1: Sugar Core View - Domestic sugar demand is average, and the international raw sugar price has fallen below the 14.5 - 15 cent shock range, which is expected to drag down domestic sugar. The upward space of domestic sugar is limited, and the 60 - day moving average above has great pressure [3]. Sugar Futures Prices and Spreads - **Prices**: On February 4, 2026, SR01 closed at 5318 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.72% and a weekly increase of 0.19%; SR03 closed at 5224 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.81% and a weekly increase of 0.54%; SR05 closed at 5210 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.83% and a weekly increase of 0.44%; SR07 closed at 5216 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.81% and a weekly increase of 0.4%; SR09 closed at 5214 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.71% and a weekly increase of 0.31%; SR11 closed at 5231 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.75% and a weekly increase of 0.27%. SB closed at 14.63 cents/pound with a daily increase of 2.59% and a weekly decrease of 0.61%; W closed at 417.3 cents/ton with a daily increase of 2.99% and a weekly increase of 1.02% [4]. - **Spreads**: SR01 - 05 was 113 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan from the previous day and 15 yuan from the previous week; SR05 - 09 was - 10 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan from the previous day and 7 yuan from the previous week; SR09 - 01 was - 103 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan from the previous day and up 8 yuan from the previous week; SR01 - 03 was 98 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day and down 28 yuan from the previous week; SR03 - 05 was 15 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan from the previous day and up 13 yuan from the previous week; SR05 - 07 was - 7 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan from the previous day and 6 yuan from the previous week; SR07 - 09 was - 3 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day and up 1 yuan from the previous week; SR09 - 11 was - 15 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan from the previous day and up 2 yuan from the previous week; SR11 - 01 was - 88 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan from the previous day and 6 yuan from the previous week [4]. Sugar Basis - On February 3, 2026, the basis of Nanning - SR01 was 50 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan from the previous day and 76 yuan from the previous week; the basis of Kunming - SR01 was - 105 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan from the previous day and 36 yuan from the previous week; the basis of Nanning - SR03 was 148 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan from the previous day and 48 yuan from the previous week; the basis of Kunming - SR03 was - 7 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan from the previous day and 8 yuan from the previous week; the basis of Nanning - SR05 was 163 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan from the previous day and 61 yuan from the previous week; the basis of Kunming - SR05 was 8 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan from the previous day and 21 yuan from the previous week; the basis of Nanning - SR07 was 156 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan from the previous day and 67 yuan from the previous week; the basis of Kunming - SR07 was 1 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan from the previous day and 27 yuan from the previous week; the basis of Nanning - SR09 was 153 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan from the previous day and 68 yuan from the previous week; the basis of Kunming - SR09 was - 2 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan from the previous day and 28 yuan from the previous week; the basis of Nanning - SR11 was 138 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan from the previous day and 70 yuan from the previous week; the basis of Kunming - SR11 was - 17 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan from the previous day and 30 yuan from the previous week [13]. Sugar Import Price Changes - **Brazil**: On February 4, 2026, the in - quota price of Brazilian sugar imports was 3939 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan from the previous day and 110 yuan from the previous week; the out - of - quota price was 4985 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan from the previous day and 144 yuan from the previous week. The price difference between Rizhao and Brazilian sugar was 1457 yuan/ton (in - quota) and 410 yuan/ton (out - of - quota); the price difference between Liuzhou and Brazilian sugar was 1331 yuan/ton (in - quota) and 285 yuan/ton (out - of - quota); the price difference between Zhengzhou sugar and Brazilian sugar was 1153 yuan/ton (in - quota) and 84 yuan/ton (out - of - quota) [16]. - **Thailand**: The in - quota price of Thai sugar imports was 3984 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan from the previous day and 116 yuan from the previous week; the out - of - quota price was 5044 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan from the previous day and 152 yuan from the previous week. The price difference between Rizhao and Thai sugar was 1412 yuan/ton (in - quota) and 351 yuan/ton (out - of - quota); the price difference between Liuzhou and Thai sugar was 1286 yuan/ton (in - quota) and 226 yuan/ton (out - of - quota); the price difference between Zhengzhou sugar and Thai sugar was 1108 yuan/ton (in - quota) and 163 yuan/ton (out - of - quota) [16]. Group 2: Cotton Core View - Cotton prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall under the expectation of tight balance, but in the short term, the profits of domestic downstream spinning mills are poor, and the upward movement of Zhengzhou cotton is restricted by the internal - external price difference. It is recommended to buy on dips rather than chase the rise. Attention should be paid to the downstream import situation and new order trends [18]. Cotton and Cotton Yarn Futures Prices - **Cotton Futures**: On February 4, 2026, Cotton 01 closed at 15210 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan with a daily increase of 0.13%; Cotton 05 closed at 14680 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan with a daily increase of 0.2%; Cotton 09 closed at 14805 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan with a daily increase of 0.17% [19]. - **Cotton Yarn Futures**: Cotton Yarn 01 closed at 0 yuan/ton, down 100%; Cotton Yarn 05 closed at 20595 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan with a daily increase of 0.49%; Cotton Yarn 09 closed at 20690 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan with a daily decrease of 0.29% [19]. Cotton and Cotton Yarn Spreads - The cotton basis was 1420 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; Cotton 01 - 05 was 540 yuan/ton, unchanged; Cotton 05 - 09 was - 130 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; Cotton 09 - 01 was - 410 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the flower - yarn spread was 5785 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the internal - external cotton spread was 3703 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the internal - external yarn spread was - 51 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan [19]. Group 3: Apple Core View - Recently, apple demand has slowed down, and the spot price has loosened, but the futures market is relatively strong. The short - covering of near - month contracts drives the upward movement, and the main contract increases in positions and rises, with the long - side power strengthening. Attention should be paid to whether the logic of the shortage of delivery products can return to the market [24]. Apple Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: On February 4, 2026, AP01 closed at 8214 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.76% and a weekly decrease of 1.06%; AP03 closed at 9491 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.79% and a weekly decrease of 0.9%; AP04 closed at 9499 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.85% and a weekly increase of 0.17%; AP05 closed at 9594 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.15% and a weekly increase of 0.65%; AP10 closed at 8310 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.65% and a weekly decrease of 1.31%; AP11 closed at 8120 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.11% and a weekly decrease of 1.26%; AP12 closed at 8129 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.01% and a weekly decrease of 1.47% [25]. - **Spot Prices**: The price of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 apples was 4 yuan/jin, unchanged; the price of Luochuan semi - commodity 70 apples was 4.2 yuan/jin, unchanged; the price of Jingning paper - bagged 75 apples was 5.5 yuan/jin, unchanged; the price of Yiyuan paper - bagged 70 apples was 2.5 yuan/jin, unchanged; the price of Wanrong paper - plus - film 75 apples was 2.3 yuan/jin, unchanged [25]. Apple Spreads and Other Indicators - AP01 - 05 was - 1333 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 3.57% and a weekly increase of 7.94%; AP05 - 10 was 1229 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.74% and a weekly increase of 9.05%; AP10 - 01 was 104 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 55.22% and a weekly decrease of 3.70%. The main contract basis was - 151 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 101.33% and a weekly increase of 42.45%. The disk profit was - 551 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 16% and a weekly increase of 8.89%. The delivery theoretical price was 9400 yuan/ton, unchanged [25]. Group 4: Red Dates Core View - The production of red dates in the 2025/2026 season has been determined. The market focus is on the change in the demand side. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream buyers mainly replenish stocks for rigid demand. In the short term, the red date price may maintain a low - level shock. Attention should be paid to the pre - Spring Festival procurement situation of the downstream. In the medium and long term, the overall supply - demand of domestic red dates in the new season is relatively loose, and the price will still be under pressure [30].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Date: December 26, 2025 [1] - Report Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220), Reviewed by Tang Yun (Z0002422) [2] Group 2: Sugar Market Core View - Short - term basis repair is completed, and further upward movement is difficult. With multiple factors affecting the market, the sugar price is under pressure to fall [3] Price and Spread Data - Sugar futures: SR01 closed at 5294 with a daily decline of 1.3% and a weekly increase of 2.26%; SR03 closed at 5287 with a daily increase of 0.28% and a weekly increase of 3.46%; etc [4] - Sugar basis: On December 25, 2025, the basis of Nanning - SR01 was - 24 with a daily increase of 28 and a weekly decrease of 102; etc [9] - Import price: On December 26, 2025, the in - quota price of Brazilian sugar imports was 4157 with a daily increase of 15 and a weekly increase of 75; the out - of - quota price was 5270 with a daily increase of 20 and a weekly increase of 98; etc [12] Group 3: Cotton Market Core View - In the short term, there is still hedging pressure on cotton prices to be digested. In the long term, if the supply expectation remains unchanged, the cotton supply - demand in the new year may be tight, and cotton prices have room to rise. Attention should be paid to downstream orders before the holiday [14] Price and Spread Data - Cotton and cotton yarn futures: Cotton01 closed at 14565 with an increase of 270 (1.89%); Cotton05 closed at 14535 with an increase of 280 (1.96%); etc [15] - Cotton and cotton yarn spreads: The cotton basis was 782 with a daily decrease of 242; the spread of cotton01 - 05 was 30 with a daily decrease of 10; etc [15] Group 4: Apple Market Core View - The overall trading of late Fuji inventory is slow, and transactions are mostly on - demand. Merchants' restocking is temporarily over [18] Price and Spread Data - Apple futures: AP01 closed at 9694 with a daily increase of 0.03% and a weekly increase of 1.14%; AP03 closed at 9360 with a daily increase of 0.61% and a weekly increase of 0.8%; etc [19] - Apple spreads: The spread of AP01 - 05 was 483 with a daily increase of 2.11% and a weekly increase of 16.39%; etc [19] Group 5: Red Date Market Core View - In the short term, red date prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level. In the long term, the overall supply - demand of red dates in the new year in China is loose, and prices will still be under pressure [26] Price and Spread Data - Red date futures spreads: The spread of red date futures (01 - 05) shows certain trends in different years; etc [27]

Market Trends - Robusta coffee futures experienced a decline in London [1] - The decline is attributed to traders weighing increased shipments from Vietnam against an anticipated typhoon in the nation's primary production area [1] Production & Supply Chain - Vietnam's robusta coffee shipments are currently strong [1] - A typhoon is forecasted to impact Vietnam's key coffee-producing region [1]

Market Trends - London coffee futures are on track for a second consecutive week of gains [1] - Concerns are easing regarding the impact of storms in Vietnam, the world's largest robusta coffee producer [1]

Market Trends - Arabica coffee prices declined for a second day in New York [1] - Forecasted rain in Brazil eased concerns about dry weather impact on the next season's crop [1] Crop Conditions - Brazil is the top grower of Arabica coffee [1]

Market Trends - Arabica coffee futures climbed in New York due to concerns [1] - Dry weather in top grower Brazil is a key factor [1] Crop Development - Crucial phase of crop development is impacted [1]

Market Trends - Arabica coffee futures declined in New York [1] - Rainfall in Brazil, the world's top producer, is expected to lead to a bumper crop [1] Production Outlook - Increased rainfall in Brazil is boosting expectations for a large Arabica coffee crop [1]