软商品日报 2025/12/26 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 | 2025-12-26 | 收盘价 | 日涨跌幅 | 周涨跌幅 | 2025-12-25 | 收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 周涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SR01 | 5294 | -1.3% | 2.26% | SR01-05 | 95 | -35 | 5 | | SR03 | 5287 | 0.28% | 3.46% | SR05-09 | -8 | -4 | 10 | | SR05 | 5285 | 0.3% | 3.87% | SR09-01 | -87 | 39 | -15 | | SR07 | 5294 | 0.32% | 3.9% | SR01-03 | 92 | -27 | 34 | | SR09 | 5291 | 0.27% | 3.85% | SR03-05 | 3 | -8 | -29 | | SR11 | 5287 | 0.28% | 3.83% | SR05- ...

Robusta coffee futures fell in London as traders balanced stronger shipments from Vietnam against a typhoon expected to hit the nation’s key producing region https://t.co/x3SnLoQ9aJ ...

Coffee futures in London headed for a second week of gains, even as worries begin to subside over the impact of storms in Vietnam, the world’s biggest robusta grower https://t.co/Vy8KUk7IOd ...

Market Trends - Arabica coffee prices declined for a second day in New York [1] - Forecasted rain in Brazil eased concerns about dry weather impact on the next season's crop [1] Crop Conditions - Brazil is the top grower of Arabica coffee [1]

Market Trends - Arabica coffee futures climbed in New York due to concerns [1] - Dry weather in top grower Brazil is a key factor [1] Crop Development - Crucial phase of crop development is impacted [1]

Market Trends - Arabica coffee futures declined in New York [1] - Rainfall in Brazil, the world's top producer, is expected to lead to a bumper crop [1] Production Outlook - Increased rainfall in Brazil is boosting expectations for a large Arabica coffee crop [1]

Market Trends - Arabica coffee prices fell in New York [1] - Favorable weather in Brazil is expected to boost the next season's coffee crop [1] Geopolitics & Trade - Tensions with the US are stifling trade [1]

Market Trends - Arabica coffee futures in New York rose for the ninth consecutive session [1] - Arabica coffee futures reached a three-month high [1] Supply Chain - Coffee stockpiles are decreasing [1] - Shipments from Brazil, the top producer, are stalling [1]

Market Trends - Arabica coffee futures reached a two-month high in New York [1] - Concerns exist that cold weather and light frost may reduce output in Brazil, the top grower [1]

Group 1: Sugar Core View - Short - term Zhengzhou sugar prices follow the external market and are supported by the previous low. Attention should be paid to the support level of 5600 [3]. Specific Data - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: SR01 closed at 5575 with a daily increase of 0.04% and a weekly increase of 0.65%; SR03 closed at 5550 with a daily decrease of 0.04% and a weekly increase of 0.62%; etc. [4]. - **Basis**: On June 20, 2025, the basis of Nanning - SR01 was 457, with a daily decrease of 37 and a weekly decrease of 30; the basis of Kunming - SR01 was 282, with a daily decrease of 47 and a weekly decrease of 20; etc. [11]. - **Import Prices**: On June 23, 2025, the in - quota price of Brazilian sugar imports was 4393, with a daily decrease of 42 and a weekly decrease of 122; the out - of - quota price was 5578, with a daily decrease of 55 and a weekly decrease of 159; etc. [14]. Group 2: Cotton Core View - Recently, Sino - US policies are stable, but oil prices fluctuate greatly, affecting cotton prices. In the off - season of demand, the rebound momentum of cotton prices may be weak. Due to the small quantity of imported cotton, the de - stocking speed of Xinjiang cotton is fast. It is expected that the supply and demand at the end of the year may be tight, and the downward space of cotton prices is narrowed. Short - term attention should be paid to the pressure around 13600 and the support around 13000, as well as the de - stocking speed in the off - season [16]. Specific Data - **Futures Prices**: Cotton 01 closed at 13500, down 15 or 0.11%; Cotton 05 closed at 13470, down 25 or 0.19%; etc. [17]. - **Spreads**: The cotton basis was 1384, unchanged; the spread between Cotton 01 and 05 was 20, unchanged; etc. [18]. Group 3: Apples Core View - Affected by the impact of seasonal fruits, the sales speed is limited. Due to the busy farming season in Shandong, the packaging quantity is limited. The apple sources in Shaanxi are concentrated in northern Shaanxi, and the secondary production areas are basically cleared. For the new - season apples, they have entered the bagging period. The bagging quantity in Shandong is slightly more than last year, and it is estimated that the bagging quantity in the western region is less than the same period last year. The overall production reduction is estimated to be 5% - 8%. Attention should be paid to the bagging quantity [21]. Specific Data - **Futures Prices**: AP01 closed at 7547, down 0.59% daily and up 0.64% weekly; AP03 closed at 7594, up 1.19% daily and up 1.6% weekly; etc. [22]. - **Spot Prices**: The price of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 apples was 4.1, unchanged; the price of Luochuan semi - commercial 70 apples was 4.8, unchanged; etc. [22]. Group 4: Red Dates Core View - Currently, the southern Xinjiang production area is in the concentrated girdling period, and Kashgar has entered the end of girdling. Recently, high temperatures in Xinjiang have continued, but the actual impact on production is still limited. Attention should be paid to the actual impact of subsequent high temperatures on the second - crop fruit setting of the new season. As of now, there may still be high - temperature weather at the end of this month, and the new - season production may face challenges. Last Friday, there was no arrival of goods at the Guangzhou Ruyifang market, and 4 trucks arrived at the Hebei Cuierzhuang market. The downstream purchase and sales atmosphere was light, with sporadic transactions, and the spot prices were generally stable [29]. Specific Data - **Futures Spreads**: The spread between Red Date 01 and 05, 05 and 09, 09 and 01 has different historical trends and values [30][32]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The sum of red date warehouse receipts and valid forecasts shows different values in different years [32].