Core Viewpoint - The 2024 China Chain Top 100 report indicates a mixed performance across various retail sectors, with significant challenges for comprehensive retail while supermarkets and specialty stores show growth potential [1][3][11]. Group 1: Overall Performance - The overall sales scale of the top 100 chain enterprises in China for 2024 is 2.13 trillion yuan, with a total of 257,200 stores, representing a growth of 4.9% and 13.5% respectively compared to 2023 [1]. - Notable companies such as Walmart (China), Suining Yigou, and Hema maintain their leading positions, with Walmart (China) achieving sales of 158.845 billion yuan [2]. Group 2: Comprehensive Retail Sector - The comprehensive retail sector faces significant growth pressure, with only 19 out of 46 companies showing year-on-year sales growth, and just 9 achieving both sales and store number growth [4]. - Companies like Suning Yigou and CR Vanguard experienced substantial declines in sales, with decreases of 14.1% and 23.1% respectively, alongside reductions in store numbers [5]. - The challenges faced by comprehensive retail are not new, as evidenced by declines in 2023, indicating a trend of stagnation due to rising costs and increased online sales penetration [5]. Group 3: Supermarkets and Convenience Stores - The supermarket sector shows signs of improvement, with 12 out of 23 companies reporting sales growth, including Hema and Jiajiayue, which achieved significant increases in both sales and store numbers [7]. - Hema's sales exceeded 75 billion yuan, growing by 27.1%, while Pang Donglai reported a remarkable 58.5% increase in sales [7][8]. - Convenience stores continue to grow, but the growth rate has slowed significantly for major players like Meiyijia and 7-Eleven, indicating a potential saturation in the market [9][10]. Group 4: Specialty Stores - Specialty stores are emerging as a new growth driver, with strong performance across various segments such as pharmaceuticals and beauty products, showing double-digit growth in both sales and store numbers [11]. - Companies like Dazhenglin and Kidswant are expanding rapidly, with Dazhenglin's store count increasing by 17.6% [12]. - The snack industry is witnessing the rise of new discount brands, with Hunan Mingming Hen Mang entering the top 10 with a staggering 132.7% sales growth [13]. Group 5: Future Trends - The competition among chain enterprises will increasingly depend on user engagement, service experience, product precision, and technological support [13]. - As the retail market evolves, specialty stores must enhance their competitiveness to address pressures from other retail formats and e-commerce platforms [13].

Group 1: Overall Performance of Top 100 Retailers - The overall sales scale of China's Top 100 chain enterprises in 2024 is 2.13 trillion yuan, with a total of 257,200 stores, representing a growth of 4.9% and 13.5% respectively compared to 2023 [1] - Walmart (China) leads the list with a sales revenue of 158.845 billion yuan, maintaining its top position [1] - New entrants to the list include five companies, with Hunan Mingming Hen Mang breaking into the top ten with sales exceeding 55 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Challenges in Comprehensive Retail - Comprehensive retail faces significant growth pressure, with only 19 out of 46 companies showing year-on-year sales growth, and only 9 achieving both sales and store number growth [2] - Notable declines in sales were observed for Suning.com and CR Vanguard, with sales dropping by 14.1% and 23.1% respectively, alongside reductions in store numbers [2] - The challenges faced by comprehensive retail are not new, as evidenced by declines in 2023 sales figures for major players [2] Group 3: Supermarkets and Convenience Stores - Among the 23 supermarkets listed, 12 achieved year-on-year sales growth, with notable performers like Hema and Pang Dong Lai showing significant increases [4] - Hema's sales exceeded 75 billion yuan, growing by 27.1%, while Pang Dong Lai's sales reached 16.9 billion yuan, marking a 58.5% increase [4] - Convenience stores continue to show growth in sales and store numbers, but growth rates have slowed significantly for major brands like Meiyijia and 7-Eleven [6][7] Group 4: Professional Stores as New Growth Drivers - Professional stores have shown the best performance, with double-digit growth in sales and store numbers across various sectors, indicating strong demand in niche markets [8] - Dazhenglin in the pharmaceutical sector and Kidswant in the mother and baby category have demonstrated robust growth, with Dazhenglin expanding by 17.6% [8] - The snack industry is witnessing the rise of new discount brands, with Hunan Mingming Hen Mang achieving a remarkable 132.7% sales growth [8] Group 5: Future Trends in Retail Competition - Future competition among chain enterprises will increasingly depend on user operation capabilities, service experience, product precision, and technological support [9] - The intersection of consumption upgrades and rational return will determine which companies can understand users and continue to innovate [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Arclands (9842.T) is Equal-weight [4][10]. Price Target - The price target has been revised from ¥1,500 to ¥1,700 [4][7]. Core Investment Thesis - The report indicates a focus on recovery in retail business earnings after a prolonged slump, alongside synergies with the wholly-consolidated Arcland Service HD [18]. - The investment thesis is supported by expectations of improved sales and margins, particularly in the DIY/gardening and seasonal goods segments, driven by stronger private-brand lineups and cost reductions from synergies [11][18]. Financial Estimates - The estimated EPS for fiscal year ending February 2026 is ¥194.2, with a projected P/E ratio of 8.5x [4][13]. - The bull case estimates an EPS of ¥233.0, which is 20% above the base case estimate [11]. - The retail business sales are projected to reach ¥255,270 million in 2025, with operating profit (OP) of ¥5,559 million [17]. Scenarios - The report outlines three scenarios: - Bull Case: Price target of ¥4,400 - Base Case: Price target of ¥1,700 - Bear Case: Price target of ¥600 [13][14]. Market Context - The report notes that the current stock price is ¥1,688, with a 52-week range of ¥1,986 to ¥1,501 [4]. - The industry view is classified as In-Line, indicating expectations of performance in line with the broader market [4].