Jim Fish, Waste Management CEO, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the company's revenue mix, growth outlook, consumer demand, managing medical waste, labor trends, and more. ...

Economic Outlook - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, expressed concerns about U.S. stagflation, highlighting the challenges of high inflation coupled with economic recession, which limits policymakers' options to improve the economy [2] - Dimon indicated that U.S. stocks are overvalued and may face a potential decline of 10%, attributing this to high forward price-to-earnings ratios and overly optimistic earnings estimates amid deteriorating economic conditions [3] Investment Opportunities - Autozone has outperformed the S&P 500 with over 250% return in the last five years, despite only a 2% increase in net sales for the first half of fiscal 2025, due to its strong return on invested capital (ROIC) averaging over 50% [7][9][11] - Casella Waste Systems has seen nearly 2,000% growth in shares over the past decade, benefiting from low competition and the necessity of its services regardless of economic conditions, with a recent acquisition adding approximately $90 million in annualized revenue [12][15][16] - Copart, while generating 18% of its fiscal 2024 revenue internationally, remains primarily U.S.-focused and boasts a remarkable net profit margin of 32% for the first half of fiscal 2025, with revenue growth driven by the adoption of additional services [17][18][19] Valuation Insights - All three highlighted stocks—Autozone, Casella Waste Systems, and Copart—are trading at the higher end of their historical valuations, yet are considered reliable investments in uncertain times [20] - Casella Waste Systems is noted as potentially the best bargain among the three, trading at roughly 4 times sales and only about 10% above its five-year average [21]

Core Viewpoint - The article provides an update on Casella Waste Systems (NASDAQ: CWST) following a previous recommendation to buy, emphasizing a positive outlook on EBITDA growth [1] Group 1: Investment Philosophy - The company adopts a fundamentals-based approach to value investing, focusing on long-term durability and affordability rather than merely low multiples [1] - There is a belief that successful investments carry risks, particularly the risk of overpaying, highlighting the importance of valuation [1] - The company is attracted to firms with steady long-term growth, no cyclicality, and strong balance sheets [1] Group 2: Market Perspective - The article suggests that in certain situations, the potential for growth can outweigh immediate price concerns, indicating a broader view on market dynamics [1]

Core Viewpoint - Waste Management, Inc. reported mixed first-quarter 2025 results, with earnings exceeding estimates but revenues falling short [1] Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings per share were $1.67, surpassing the consensus estimate by 1.2% but declining 4.6% year over year [1] - Total revenues reached $6 billion, missing the consensus mark by 1.3% but growing 16.7% from the previous year [1] Segment Performance - Collection segment revenues were $4.3 billion, up 4.7% year over year but below the estimate of $4.7 billion [3] - Landfill segment revenues increased 3.6% to $1.2 billion, missing the projection of $1.4 billion [3] - Transfer segment revenues rose 5.7% to $592 million, falling short of the estimate of $681.4 million [3] - Recycling Processing and Sales segment revenues grew 6.7% to $465 million, missing the estimate of $526.3 million [3] - Renewable Energy segment revenues were $92 million, up 31.4% year over year and exceeding the estimate of $89 million [4] - Healthcare Solutions Corporate and Other segment recorded revenues of $627 million, significantly surpassing the estimate of $121 million [4] Operating Metrics - Adjusted operating EBITDA was $1.7 billion, missing the estimate of $1.8 billion but increasing 12.2% from the year-ago quarter [5] - Adjusted operating EBITDA margin decreased by 110 basis points to 28.5%, below the estimate of 30.1% [5] Cash Flow and Dividends - Cash generated from operating activities was $1.2 billion, with capital expenditures of $831 million [6] - Free cash flow amounted to $475 million, and $336 million in cash dividends were distributed to shareholders [6] Stock Performance - The stock has gained 7.4% over the past six months, outperforming the industry growth of 3.6% and the S&P 500 decline of 4.1% [2]

Core Insights - Waste Connections reported revenue of $2.23 billion for the quarter ended March 2025, reflecting a 7.5% increase year-over-year and a surprise of +0.42% over the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.22 billion [1] - The company's EPS for the quarter was $1.13, up from $1.04 in the same quarter last year, with an EPS surprise of +5.61% compared to the consensus estimate of $1.07 [1] Revenue Performance - Geographic Revenues: - Canada: $302.73 million, +8% year-over-year, below the average estimate of $330.45 million [4] - Southern: $453.40 million, +8.2% year-over-year, slightly below the estimate of $457.70 million [4] - Central: $373.38 million, +3.5% year-over-year, below the estimate of $395.83 million [4] - Eastern: $403.27 million, +12% year-over-year, slightly below the estimate of $405.97 million [4] - Western: $438.40 million, +3.8% year-over-year, below the estimate of $454.36 million [4] - Revenue Breakdown: - E&P Waste Treatment, Recovery and Disposal: $144.53 million, +179.2% year-over-year, exceeding the estimate of $119.94 million [4] - Intermodal and Other: $46.11 million, +20.7% year-over-year, below the estimate of $54.46 million [4] - Revenues- E&P: $150.90 million, +54.9% year-over-year, exceeding the estimate of $116.93 million [4] - Revenues- Intermodal and Other: $46.55 million, -6% year-over-year, below the estimate of $55.14 million [4] - Revenues- Intercompany: -$309.71 million, +5.4% year-over-year, slightly better than the estimate of -$311.04 million [4] - Revenues- Total Collection: $1.62 billion, +7% year-over-year, exceeding the estimate of $1.60 billion [4] - Revenues- Recycling: $61.34 million, +25.1% year-over-year, exceeding the estimate of $46.25 million [4] Stock Performance - Shares of Waste Connections have returned +2.1% over the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite, which declined by -5.1% [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating expected performance in line with the broader market in the near term [3]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue for Q4 2024 was $70 million, up 1% year-over-year but down 4% sequentially from Q3 2024 [27] - Gross profit dollars decreased by 6.7% year-over-year and 8.3% sequentially, totaling $10.7 million [33] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2024 would have been approximately $3.2 million, excluding non-cash adjustments [38] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - New clients secured during 2024 generated approximately two-thirds of their anticipated quarterly revenue run rate during Q4 2024 [29] - Client attrition was primarily related to the mall and shopping center sector, which the company has decided to exit [31] - The company expects to realize $15 million in net incremental revenue from new client wins achieved during 2024 [32] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Weak market conditions in the industrial end markets are expected to continue impacting volumes for at least the next two quarters [30] - The company has experienced uncharacteristic client attrition, with a third related to the mall business [31][58] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on reducing costs, implementing process improvements, and increasing accountability to enhance performance [12] - A new operational leadership team has been established to drive operational excellence and efficiency [61] - The company is committed to maintaining a solid balance sheet and prioritizing capital allocation towards debt repayment [64] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges that performance over the last couple of years has been unacceptable and is committed to achieving operational excellence [50][58] - The company expects to show both top and bottom-line growth in 2025, with improvements anticipated in the second half of the year [65] - Management is optimistic about the future, citing a robust pipeline and strong client referrals [9][64] Other Important Information - The company has refinanced its debt, reducing interest expenses by approximately $1 million annually [45] - An impairment loss of $5.5 million was recognized related to the sale of client contracts for the mall business [43] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you talk about the vendor management system and its rollout? - The vendor management program is substantially complete, with ongoing improvements and expected cost reductions in Q1 [71][72] Question: Is the attrition stabilizing? - Yes, most attrition was related to the mall business and M&A activity, and the company is seeing signs of stabilization [80] Question: What is the outlook for the industrial market? - The industrial market is expected to face challenges for the next couple of quarters, but there are signs of potential recovery in the second half of the year [78] Question: How is the sales pipeline looking? - The sales pipeline has grown significantly, and the company remains optimistic about future deal flow [84] Question: What are the expectations regarding the sale of the RWS tenant billing business? - The sale is expected to close soon, and it is not anticipated to have a material impact on the bottom line [88] Question: How does the company view M&A in the near term? - The focus is currently on operational improvements and debt repayment, with M&A not being a priority at this time [126] Question: What are the expectations for top and bottom-line growth in 2025? - The company expects growth in both revenue and EBITDA, with improvements anticipated as operational initiatives take effect [135][137]