Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Midea, Gree, Haier, and Hisense, indicating a positive outlook for these companies in the white goods sector [27][28]. Core Insights - The white goods industry is expected to show resilience with a projected revenue growth of +9% and net profit growth of +11% year-over-year for the covered companies in 2Q25, driven by domestic demand and trade-in programs [1][25]. - Midea is highlighted as the leading player in the market, benefiting from a diversified revenue base and strong profitability, while facing manageable competition from smaller players [1][6]. - The report anticipates that domestic demand will become a more significant growth driver, particularly supported by trade-in programs and promotional events like "618" [1][5]. Summary by Sections Domestic Market Dynamics - Domestic demand is expected to accelerate in 2Q25, following a brief slowdown earlier in the year, with trade-in programs resuming and promotional events boosting sales [1][5]. - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) plans to disburse trade-in subsidies starting in July, which is expected to stabilize funding and support growth [1][5]. Competitive Landscape - Increased competition in the online channel is noted, particularly from smaller players like Xiaomi, which may impact revenue growth and margins for these companies [1][4]. - Despite the competition, the report suggests that the risk of a full-blown pricing war is limited, as premium products continue to grow faster than entry-level offerings [1][4]. Company Performance Expectations - Midea, Haier, and Gree are expected to report approximately 10% revenue growth and 10%-12% net profit growth in 2Q25, while Hisense is projected to face more challenges due to a slowdown in its central AC business [4][24]. - The report fine-tunes earnings forecasts for the covered companies, adjusting estimates by -6% to 2% to reflect recent operational data [4][21]. Price Target Revisions - Price targets for the covered companies have been revised down by -11% to 2% to reflect changes in earnings per share (EPS) and target multiples [21][27]. - Midea is expected to maintain its leading position due to its diversified revenue streams and strong market presence, while Gree is anticipated to benefit from strong domestic demand for air conditioning [6][27].

23 May 2025 | 4:38PM CST China Multi-Industry Tariff Impact - Feedback from Appliances, Autos, Industrial Tech & Solar Companies (week of May 23) We have conducted discussions with select companies in the appliances, autos, industrial tech and solar sectors to understand the latest management thoughts on the business outlook following the increase in US tariffs. Details inside. China Consumer Durables We have interviewed selected covered companies within the white goods, consumer electronics and furniture s ...

19 May 2025 | 12:05PM CST China Consumer Durables Refreshing tariff analysis & estimates after US/China tariff rollback On May 12, following trade talks in Geneva, the US and China issued a joint statement agreeing to de-escalate trade tensions and establish ongoing dialogue on economic and trade relations. Specifically, the US will cancel tariffs from later retaliatory rounds and suspend 24pp of the 34% "reciprocal" tariffs for an initial 90 days (effective May 14), while maintaining the 10pp remaining tar ...