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奕瑞科技(688301):下游景气回升,新品值得期待
HTSC· 2025-07-03 12:28
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][20]. Core Views - The company is a leading global supplier of X-ray core components and solutions, with a diversified downstream distribution. The recovery in downstream medical, dental, and industrial sectors since 2025 is promising, and new products like CT tubes and silicon-based OLED microdisplay backplanes are expected to have significant growth potential [1][2]. - The company has announced an investment of up to RMB 1.8 billion for a silicon-based OLED microdisplay backplane production project, which is anticipated to add a capacity of 5,000 units per month [3][15]. - There is substantial domestic replacement potential for core components like CT tubes, with an estimated market space of RMB 1 to 5 billion due to the ongoing anti-dumping investigations against imports from the US and India [4][20]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company expects a revenue decline of 2% in 2024, primarily due to poor downstream conditions, but anticipates a recovery in 2025 with a projected revenue increase of 17.18% [2][10]. - The forecasted net profit for 2025-2027 is RMB 5.9 billion, RMB 8.5 billion, and RMB 11.0 billion, representing year-on-year growth rates of 26%, 46%, and 29% respectively [5][19]. Revenue Breakdown - The detector segment is expected to grow at rates of 16%, 19%, and 19% from 2025 to 2027, with a recovery in demand from the medical and dental sectors [12][17]. - The core components segment is projected to see revenue growth of 43%, 39%, and 28% over the same period, driven by advancements in high-voltage generators and ray sources [13][17]. - The solutions and technical services segment is anticipated to grow significantly, with expected revenues of RMB 350 million, RMB 500 million, and RMB 700 million from 2025 to 2027 [14][17]. Valuation - The target price for the company is set at RMB 132, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 45 times for 2025, reflecting a significant adjustment from previous estimates due to overall market conditions [5][20]. - The company's market capitalization is approximately RMB 17.36 billion, with a closing price of RMB 86.70 as of July 2, 2025 [7][10].