《增长是硬道理:我对中国宏观调控的思考》
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余永定:增长是硬道理
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-25 00:31
Core Insights - The book "Growth is the Hard Truth" by Yu Yongding provides a historical commentary on China's macroeconomic issues from 2019 to 2025, analyzing the causes of declining growth rates and the challenges of structural reforms [1][2] - The author emphasizes the need for enhanced counter-cyclical adjustments in macroeconomic policies to help China move out of the "L-shaped" growth phase [1][6] Summary by Sections Economic Growth and Policy Adjustments - The book discusses the evolution of China's macroeconomic policies, highlighting the shift in focus from high growth to stabilizing prices and addressing overcapacity since 2011 [3][4] - It notes that China's GDP growth rate has declined from 10.3% in 2010 to a target of 5% by 2025, indicating a significant slowdown in economic momentum [5] Key Issues and Recommendations - The author identifies critical issues such as the housing market, local government debt, and the impact of the pandemic, providing judgments and suggestions for each [1] - The book argues against the notion that a decline in growth to 6% or lower is inevitable, advocating for proactive fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate demand [7][8] Infrastructure and Local Government Debt - Infrastructure investment is highlighted as a crucial tool for macroeconomic regulation, with a call for increased central government support to alleviate local government debt issues [8] Global Perspectives and Lessons - The book reflects on changes in Western macroeconomic thought post-global financial crisis, discussing the implications of aggressive fiscal and monetary policies adopted by Western countries [8] Annual Economic Analysis - The final chapter provides an annual analysis of China's economic situation based on statistical data, offering policy recommendations to achieve growth targets [9]