证券研究报告 宏观研究 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 [Table_A 解运亮 uthor 宏观首席 ] 分析师 执业编号：S1500521040002 联系电话：010-83326858 邮 箱：xieyunliang@cindasc.com 麦麟玥 宏观分析师 执业编号：S1500524070002 邮 箱：mailinyue@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127 号金隅 大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] PPI 转正的重要抓手 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 10 月 10 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com1 [➢Table_Summary] 2000 年以来，我国四轮 PPI 转正周期均由能直接重塑供需关系的核心因 素驱动。第一轮集中在 2001-2002 年，我国加入 WTO 后市场准入持续扩 大，出口快速增长带动工业 PPI 回暖；第二轮则出现在 2008-2009 年， "四万亿"投资计划及时对冲 ...

国庆中秋长假再次展现出中国消费市场的巨大潜力，中国正在从"生产大国"向"消费大国"稳步迈进。中 国离消费大国还有多远？从"量"上看，已然不远；从"质"上看，仍在途中。抵达的快慢，取决于我们改 革的深度、开放的广度、创新的力度。 国际经验表明，人均GDP超过1万美元后，消费升级将持续推进，而我国人均GDP已连续两年稳定在1.3 万美元以上。政策层面，我国坚定实施扩大内需战略，加快培育完整内需体系，近年来消费对经济增长 的贡献率持续提升。供给侧结构性改革深入推进，一批具备全球影响力的中国品牌正在崛起。国庆中秋 假期，服务体验类消费、绿色智能商品、国潮消费成为主要亮点，正是消费市场从规模扩张向质量提升 转型的生动写照。 一个被称为"消费大国"的国家，不仅是消费总量大，它更是一个结构性和质量性的概念，指向的是一种 经济增长由国内消费特别是居民消费驱动的发展模式。从国际经验看，消费大国的最终消费支出占国内 生产总值的比重较高，通常持续稳定在60%以上。而且，消费结构高度优化，服务消费占据主导地位； 拥有成熟、创新和开放的消费环境，能够孕育出具有全球影响力的品牌，成为全球消费趋势的重要策源 地之一。当面临外部经济冲击时， ...

国庆中秋长假再次展现出中国消费市场的巨大潜力，中国正在从"生产大国"向"消费大国"稳步迈进。中 国离消费大国还有多远？从"量"上看，已然不远；从"质"上看，仍在途中。抵达的快慢，取决于我们改 革的深度、开放的广度、创新的力度。 刚刚过去的国庆中秋长假，全社会跨区域人员流动量超24亿人次，创历史新高。8天时间里，国内出游 8.88亿人次，较2024年7天国庆节假日增加1.23亿人次；国内出游总花费8090.06亿元，较2024年7天国庆 节假日增加1081.89亿元。商务部重点监测的78个步行街（商圈）客流量、营业额同比分别增长8.8%和 6.0%。国庆中秋长假再次展现出中国消费市场的巨大潜力，中国正在从"生产大国"向"消费大国"稳步迈 进。 打造消费大国，我国具有坚实基础。我国拥有14亿多人口，中等收入群体超4亿人，社会消费品零售总 额接近50万亿元，是全球第二大消费市场、第一大网络零售市场、第二大进口市场。在这样的超大规模 市场中，任何微小的渗透率提升，都意味着巨大的市场增量。我国城镇化进程仍在推进，其所带来的集 聚效应和生活方式的改变，是消费扩张的持续动力。 服务消费的快速增长引人注目。文化旅游、体育健康 ...

一是产能持续扩张，竞争压力不断加大。近年来，我国酚酮行业呈现一体化、规模化和多元化发展态 势，产能持续增长。据卓创资讯统计，截至2024年年底，我国苯酚产能近十年的复合增长率达 13.65%，近五年增速为16.01%。尤其在2023年，7套新建装置与1套扩建装置集中投产，推动年度产能 增长率飙升至51%。当前酚酮产能扩张势头仍未止步，2025年苯酚总产能预计将突破735万吨。尽管苯 酚需求总量也在增长，但供应增速仍显著高于需求，市场正逐步转向供过于求格局，行业内部竞争压力 持续加剧。 二是市场价格承压走低，盈利空间难以提升。供过于求直接导致苯酚价格体系脆弱性增强，产品价格与 原料纯苯的联动性显著提升。今年以来，苯酚市场基本跟随纯苯价格震荡运行，在纯苯价格大幅走低的 背景下，苯酚现货价格一度跌破6500元/吨，创近两年新低。即便进入传统消费旺季"金九"，苯酚价格 仅较8月上涨217元/吨，同比跌幅近2000元/吨。行业开工率同样承压，上半年苯酚平均开工率仅为 72%，同比下滑5个百分点;自第二季度起，多数生产企业陷入持续亏损。尽管部分工厂尝试挺价维稳， 但在供需失衡的大环境下，价格缺乏突破动力。从后期趋势看，原 ...

近期，商务部发布公告，决定对原产于美国、欧盟、韩国、日本和泰国的进口苯酚继续征收反倾销税， 实施期限为5年。这为我国苯酚产业赢得又一阶段的政策保护窗口，有助于缓解外部低价进口产品对国 内市场的冲击。 然而，在外部屏障得以巩固的同时，国内市场的结构性矛盾与竞争压力正日益凸显，"稳内贸"的任务也 愈发艰巨。 自2019年我国对进口苯酚实施反倾销以来，进口依存度已从28.5%下降至2024年的16.8%。此次反倾销 税延续征收5年，将为国内企业争取更多应对调整时间。但行业需认识到，政策保护并不能从根本上解 决行业结构性问题。从中长期来看，酚酮行业将经历深刻的供给侧结构性改革。这一过程可能伴随部分 中小产能退出、行业兼并重组推进，以及企业向高附加值、差异化、精细化产品方向转型。只有通过持 续的产能优化、技术升级与市场出清，苯酚产业才能在反倾销保护期结束后，真正具备与国际厂商同台 竞争的能力，实现从"规模扩张"到"质量竞争"的战略转变。 一是产能持续扩张，竞争压力不断加大。近年来，我国酚酮行业呈现一体化、规模化和多元化发展态 势，产能持续增长。据卓创资讯（301299）统计，截至2024年年底，我国苯酚产能近十年的复合 ...

Group 1 - The Ministry of Culture and Tourism has launched a nationwide cultural and tourism consumption month, featuring over 29,000 events and distributing more than 480 million yuan in subsidies [1] - There is a significant shift in consumer demand from traditional sightseeing to deeper, personalized cultural experiences, driving innovation in the cultural tourism industry [1] - Innovative cultural products, such as immersive performances and hands-on experiences, are enhancing the cultural value and appeal of tourism offerings [1] Group 2 - The integration of cultural tourism with sports and performing arts is creating new consumption models, such as "traveling with events" and "attending performances in different cities" [2] - Local governments are implementing strategies like ticket discounts and special consumption vouchers to convert event attendees into tourism consumers, exemplified by initiatives in Sichuan [2] - The synergy between core cultural tourism activities and various service elements is stimulating potential consumer demand and fostering a positive economic cycle [2] Group 3 - The incorporation of advanced technologies like virtual reality and AI is enhancing the service experience in the cultural tourism sector [3] - Innovative projects, such as immersive cultural performances and smart agricultural tourism, are emerging across the country, showcasing the fusion of technology and culture [3] - The deep integration of technology with cultural tourism is improving product interactivity and service optimization, contributing to the resilience and growth of the holiday economy [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of financial support for the innovation and development of traditional Chinese brands, known as "laozihao," highlighting their cultural significance and market potential in the context of consumer upgrades [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Support and Policies - The Chinese government has implemented various policies to support the innovation and development of laozihao enterprises, including opinions from multiple departments and local action plans [2]. - Financial institutions are encouraged to provide tailored financial support to meet the diverse needs of laozihao enterprises, focusing on both well-performing companies and those facing temporary difficulties [2][3]. - As of November 2024, there are 274 laozihao enterprises in Beijing, with small and micro enterprises making up about two-thirds of this number, indicating a significant need for innovative financial products to address their financing challenges [2]. Group 2: Innovative Financial Products and Services - Financial institutions are developing specialized products for laozihao enterprises, such as credit loans based on daily operating cash flow and loans secured by intellectual property rights [6][7]. - Beijing Rural Commercial Bank has established partnerships with 134 laozihao enterprises, providing credit support totaling 6.04 billion yuan, with a credit balance of 2.84 billion yuan [5]. - Customized services, such as fee reductions and early predictions of funding needs during holidays, are being offered to lower financing costs and repayment pressures for laozihao enterprises [7]. Group 3: Enhancing Consumer Engagement and Market Presence - Financial institutions are leveraging online platforms to increase the visibility of laozihao brands, facilitating marketing collaborations and enhancing consumer experiences [5][6]. - The article highlights the need for laozihao enterprises to innovate their business models and connect with new consumer groups, emphasizing the importance of cultural experience and community engagement in modern consumption [4][5]. - Financial support for laozihao is seen as a means to stimulate consumption, expand domestic demand, and create new economic growth points [5][8]. Group 4: Future Directions and Recommendations - Experts suggest that technology should play a crucial role in enhancing financial products and services for laozihao, advocating for the use of big data and AI to create credit profiles for these enterprises [8]. - There is a call for government and relevant departments to strengthen policy guidance and risk compensation to encourage financial institutions to increase their support for laozihao [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The date of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee has been set, which is from October 20th to 23rd, and it will review the "Proposal of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development". Market expectations continue to improve, and the impact of macro - policies is gradually shifting from "removal" on the supply - side to "stability", with the incremental demand on the demand - side being the focus for the future [3]. - The National Development and Reform Commission announced 500 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instruments. Based on the project capital ratio of 20% and the new policy - based financial instrument ratio of 50%, it can drive investment projects worth 5 trillion yuan. Attention should be paid to the stabilization and recovery of the economic cycle in the fourth quarter. There are differences between internal and external expectations, with external negative impacts on global total demand rising and internal positive impacts on the economy rising [4]. Summary by Related Content Event Information - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee decided on September 29th that the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee will be held from October 20th to 23rd in Beijing. The National Development and Reform Commission announced on September 29th that the scale of new policy - based financial instruments is 500 billion yuan, all used to supplement project capital [2]. Policy Background and Impact - The new policy - based financial instruments were first proposed at the Political Bureau meeting on April 25th, 2025, aiming to solve the problem of insufficient project capital and supporting funds, with the direction of "supporting scientific and technological innovation, expanding consumption, stabilizing foreign trade, etc." [4].

当今世界，百年变局加速演进，在全球化遭遇逆流、国际产供链重塑、国内市场"内卷"加剧的背景下， 发展中国家对中国经济发展与安全的战略地位不断提升，从补充性的"侧翼"市场上升为中国全球化战略 的重要"主场"。9月8日，国家主席习近平在金砖国家领导人线上峰会讲话中强调，无论国际形势如何变 化，我们都要坚定不移推动构建开放型世界经济，在开放中分享机遇、实现共赢。要倡导普惠包容的经 济全球化，将发展置于国际议程的中心位置，让"全球南方"国家公平参与国际合作、共享发展成果。新 形势下，作为出海的主力军，中国企业要深化南向布局，深耕发展沃土，与"全球南方"一道，携手共创 繁荣发展的美好未来。 新形势下加快推进南向出海的战略与现实逻辑 当下，国内外环境已发生深刻变化，在全球化遭遇逆流、地缘冲突加剧、美国对华战略博弈长期化等新 形势下，中企加快向发展中国家出海不再是可选项，而是生存与可持续发展的必然选择。 （一）国家视角：出海发展中国家是深化供给侧结构性改革、构建新发展格局的战略支撑。习近平总书 记指出，"只要我们保持战略定力，全面深化改革开放，深化供给侧结构性改革，下大气力解决存在的 突出矛盾和问题，中国经济就一定能加快转入 ...

今年，扩大内需是我国政策发力重点。当前，第三批消费品以旧换新政策资金下达，接力发挥政策效 能，促进居民消费需求的释放，带动相关商品销售较快增长。8月份，限额以上单位商品零售额中，家 用电器和音像器材类、家具类、文化办公用品类商品零售额继续保持两位数增长。我国在2024年实施新 一轮"两新"政策和2025年加力扩围实施"两新"政策以来，有效激发了国内消费潜力和投资动能，有力推 动了供给和需求的良性循环，带动产业升级和绿色发展。 政策实施效果显著 扩大内需功效显著。政策实施以来，全国汽车、家电等重点品类消费呈现爆发式增长。家电、通信器 材、家具商品等销售额多次实现20%以上的月度同比增幅；新能源乘用车国内市场渗透率连续多个月超 过50%。2024年以来，消费品以旧换新政策整体撬动相关产品消费超2万亿元。设备更新拉动相关领域 投资强劲增长。2025年以来，超长期特别国债支持的设备更新项目约8400个，带动总投资超1万亿元。 深化供给侧结构性改革纵深推进。政策着力提升产业链供应链韧性和安全水平，鼓励制造业企业加大技 术改造投入，推动新能源汽车、高端装备等产业加速发展。金融机构为数字化、智能化、高端化、绿色 化技术改造 ...