日本对抗通缩的实践表明，一旦形成"债务—通缩"恶性循环，长期通缩预期将削弱央行降息（降低 名义利率）的政策效果。 日本CPI自2021年9月开始转正，此后基本稳定在2.5%以上。日本经济走 出通缩的一个重要契机是抓住全球通胀上行形成的输入性通胀窗口期，建立工资与物价同步上涨的良 性循环，并通过货币政策正常化增强长期通胀预期。 房地产投资不振叠加对等关税冲击，中游化工品成为PPI下行的最大拖累因素。中游化工品对PPI降 幅波动的解释程度达到60%以上，是分析PPI整体走势的重要指标。受供给波动和需求收缩影响，下 游必选消费品加大PPI下行压力。 综合整治内卷式竞争初显成效，下游可选消费品对PPI形成支撑。随着《公平竞争审查条例》《全国 统一大市场建设指引（试行）》相继出台，多部门加大力度治理企业低价无序竞争，新能源汽车、锂 电池、光伏等新兴产业价格降幅收窄，缓解企业"增收不增利"的经营压力。 下半年，宏观调控重心是强化财政、货币、产业、就业、社保等各项政策协同发力，促进经济供需平 衡和物价合理回升，避免名义增长偏慢拉大宏微观经济温差。 提振名义经济增长应供需两端"双管齐下"：一方面，将涵盖一般物价（CPI、PP ...

今年以来，国际环境更加错综复杂，外部冲击影响加大。在一个更加不确定不稳定的世界中谋发展，要 把做强国内大循环摆在更加突出的位置，不断释放超大规模市场的活力潜力，从而有效化解外部冲击和 外需下降带来的影响，夯实我国经济发展的根基。日前召开的国务院第九次全体会议提出，要抓住关键 着力点做强国内大循环，以国内大循环的内在稳定性和长期成长性对冲国际循环的不确定性。 我国是一个超大规模经济体，而超大规模经济体可以也必须内部可循环。我国市场有空间，市场资源是 大国经济的巨大优势，我国有14亿多人口、4亿多中等收入群体，稳居全球第二大商品消费市场和最大 网络零售市场，是全球最具成长性、最具潜力的内需市场；产业有基础，我国是全世界唯一拥有联合国 产业分类中全部工业门类的国家，制造业总体规模连续15年位居世界首位；创新有力度，我国坚定实施 创新驱动发展战略，全社会研发经费投入强度已接近经合组织国家平均水平，关键核心技术攻关加速突 破，以"人工智能+"为代表的新产业、新业态、新商业模式加快落地。 提升国内大循环的质量与层次。要加快建设现代化产业体系，推动科技创新和产业创新深度融合，改造 提升传统产业，培育壮大新兴产业、未来产业， ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年08月23日 三美股份（603379.SH） 优于大市 制冷剂价格逐季提升，公司利润率快速增长 制冷剂均价及利润率快速提升，公司 2025 年上半年归母净利润同比增长 159%。2025 年 8 月 22 日，公司发布 2025 年半年度报告。根据公司公告，2025 年上半年，公司实现营业收入 28.28 亿元，同比增长 38.58%；实现归属于上 市公司股东的净利润 9.95 亿元，同比增长 159.22%；实现归属于上市公司股 东的扣除非经常性损益的净利润 9.86 亿元，同比增长 163.61%。其中第二季 度实现营收 16.16 亿元，同比增长 49.36%；实现归母净利润 5.94 亿元，同 比增长 158.98%。业绩大幅增长的主要原因是，随着第二、三代氟制冷剂配 额制度的持续实施，行业供需格局优化，公司核心产品氟制冷剂销售均价同 比显著提升，盈利能力大幅增强。 制冷剂均价逐季增长，盈利能力显著提升。2025 年上半年，公司氟制冷剂业 务表现强劲，尽管销量同比有所下滑，但价格的强劲上涨成为业绩核心驱动 力。2025 年上半年，公司氟制冷剂销量为 6.20 万吨，同比下降 ...

Core Viewpoint - Jing'ao Technology reported a significant reduction in losses in Q2 2025, with a net profit of -2.58 billion yuan for the first half of the year, while achieving a revenue of 23.905 billion yuan [1] Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 23.905 billion yuan in H1 2025, with a net profit of -2.58 billion yuan [1] - Q2 losses narrowed by over 40% compared to Q1, indicating improved financial performance [1] - The company shipped 33.79 GW in H1 2025, with a cumulative global shipment of nearly 300 GW by mid-2025 [1] - Key expense indicators showed a decline, with sales expenses down 6.32% and management expenses down 16.82% year-on-year [1] - The expense ratio improved to 5.23% in Q2 2025, a decrease of 2.61 percentage points from the previous quarter [1] Cash Flow Management - Operating cash flow has improved for three consecutive quarters, with a net inflow of 3.7 billion yuan in Q2 and over 4.5 billion yuan for the half-year [1][2] - The company has maintained positive operating cash flow for 15 consecutive years, showcasing strong financial management [2] Strategic Initiatives - Jing'ao Technology announced a stock incentive plan and a share buyback plan, aiming to spend between 200 million yuan and 400 million yuan on share repurchases over the next 12 months [2] - The performance targets for the stock option plan are based on achieving a net profit reduction of no less than 5% in 2025 and turning positive in 2026 [2] Industry Context - Recent supply-side structural reform policies and state-owned enterprise procurement trends are injecting new momentum into the photovoltaic industry [3] - Prices for key products in the N-type supply chain have begun to rebound, indicating a potential recovery in the industry [3] - The combination of policy support and market self-adjustment is expected to bring about price recovery, technical premiums, and industry consolidation, benefiting leading companies with financial and technological advantages [3]

Core Viewpoint - The research process is iterative and requires continuous denial and reconstruction to approach the truth, emphasizing the importance of diligent and practical research in the investment banking sector [22]. Group 1 - The year 2025 is marked as a year of comprehensive upgrades for the research team, focusing on restructuring the research framework and systematically displaying research results [22]. - The new development phase of the economy is characterized by a shift in policy focus towards "people-centered" strategies, emphasizing long-term strategies for expanding domestic demand rather than short-term stimuli [25]. - The "new three drivers" of the economy, including service consumption, service industry investment, and service exports, have shown significant acceleration, indicating an approaching transformation opportunity [24]. Group 2 - The "anti-involution" movement is seen as a new phase of supply-side structural reform, with increased government and industry attention, broader coverage, and stronger coordination between policies and market mechanisms [26]. - The global macroeconomic landscape is expected to experience significant changes, particularly with the "American exceptionalism" narrative being challenged, and the need to understand the trends of global capital rebalancing [29]. - Geopolitical risks have become a crucial factor in global macroeconomics and asset pricing since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with ongoing developments in geopolitical situations influencing market narratives [32].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [13][15]. Core Viewpoints - The company has experienced a prolonged decline in stock price since February 2021, with earnings expected to fluctuate downwards from 2022 to 2024, and a projected 25.1% year-on-year decline in the first half of 2025. Currently, the company is at a low point in both performance and valuation. However, there are positive changes anticipated in the global and Chinese market environments, with the main products MDI/TDI expected to see an upturn in demand. The company has established a competitive moat in its petrochemical business, and a slowdown in capital expenditure may lead to sustained cash flow improvements. The company is focusing on a strategy of "focusing" and "operating" to solidify its advantages and promote a recovery [3][6][22]. Summary by Sections Market Environment Changes - The global and Chinese chemical industry leaders are facing a challenging period, but there are signs of positive changes in supply dynamics. Increased operational pressures have led foreign companies like Shell and Dow to exit certain capacities, resulting in a continuous optimization of supply [7][33]. MDI Market Outlook - MDI, primarily used in home appliances and real estate insulation, is expected to see improved supply-demand dynamics. The demand for MDI in China is supported by the home appliance sector, and potential interest rate cuts in the US may boost real estate demand. The global MDI market is characterized by oligopoly, with significant barriers to entry and a projected recovery in demand [8][51][59]. TDI Market Outlook - TDI, used in the production of foams and curing agents, is experiencing a supply shortage, leading to significant price increases. The domestic furniture industry's strong demand is expected to further drive TDI consumption [9][72]. Petrochemical Business - The company is enhancing its competitive edge through raw material advantages, with a successful launch of a new ethylene facility. The integration of the entire industrial chain is expected to significantly improve profitability in the petrochemical sector [10][12]. Fine Chemicals and New Materials - The company is focusing on its fine chemicals and new materials segment, which includes various high-value-added business units. The acceleration of self-developed technologies is expected to yield promising future growth [11][12]. Management and Cost Control - The company is implementing cost reduction and capital expenditure control measures, with a focus on improving operational efficiency. A planned investment of 25.24 billion yuan in 2025 indicates a significant reduction in overall investment scale, which may lead to improved cash flow and a decrease in the debt-to-asset ratio [12][46].

Core Viewpoint - The research process is iterative and requires continuous denial and reconstruction to approach the truth, emphasizing the importance of diligent and practical research in the investment banking sector [22]. Group 1 - The year 2025 is marked as a year of comprehensive upgrade for the research team, focusing on restructuring the research framework and systematically displaying research results [22]. - The new development phase of the economy is characterized by a shift in policy focus towards "people-centered" strategies, emphasizing long-term strategies for expanding domestic demand rather than short-term stimuli [25]. - The "new three drivers" of the economy, including service consumption, service industry investment, and service exports, have shown significant acceleration, indicating an approaching transformation opportunity [24]. Group 2 - The "anti-involution" movement is seen as a new phase of supply-side structural reform, with increased government and industry attention, broader coverage, and stronger coordination between policies and market mechanisms [26]. - The global macroeconomic landscape is expected to experience significant changes, particularly with the "American exceptionalism" narrative being challenged, leading to a rebalancing of global funds [29]. - Geopolitical risks have become a crucial factor in global macroeconomics and asset pricing since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with ongoing developments in geopolitical tensions influencing market narratives [32].

Economic Development - The core argument suggests that China's economic growth targets should not be based solely on estimates of "potential economic growth rates" due to considerable uncertainty in these estimates [4][5][6] - The estimation of China's potential economic growth rate varies widely among scholars, ranging from 5% to 8%, and there is a lack of official estimates from authoritative government bodies [5][6] - The article emphasizes the importance of using a trial-and-error approach in setting economic growth targets, advocating for expansionary fiscal policies when indicators such as inflation and employment are low [7] - Long-term factors influencing economic performance should not be used to explain short-term economic changes, as many intermediate factors affect current economic growth [8][9] - Macroeconomic regulation and structural reform are not mutually exclusive; both are necessary to address complex economic issues [10][11] - The article discusses the significance of the "Four Trillion Yuan Stimulus Plan" and its long-term effects on China's economic growth and financial stability [17][18] - It highlights the relationship between monetary policy and real estate regulation, noting that fluctuations in monetary policy often correlate with changes in housing prices [29][31] - The article critiques the belief that inflation is always a monetary phenomenon, presenting evidence of instances where inflation rates did not align with monetary supply growth [22][23][24] - It concludes that the lessons learned from over 20 years of macroeconomic regulation in China emphasize the importance of maintaining growth as a fundamental objective [33]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of addressing "involution" in the context of China's economic development, highlighting the negative impacts of disorderly expansion and price competition on high-quality growth [2][4][12] - The report notes that China's industrial capacity utilization has been declining since 2021, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) showing negative year-on-year growth for 34 consecutive months as of July 2025 [2][4][12] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" period is expected to see a continuation and deepening of policies aimed at countering involution, focusing on capacity governance and preventing vicious competition [2][12] Group 2 - The report compares the current "anti-involution" policies with previous supply-side structural reforms, noting that both aim to address structural issues in the economy and enhance long-term competitiveness [2][13] - The previous round of supply-side reforms successfully boosted the coal and steel industries, with significant reductions in excess capacity and improvements in profitability [2][17] - The report outlines that the current anti-involution policies cover a broader range of industries, including both traditional sectors like steel and coal, as well as emerging industries such as photovoltaics and electric vehicles [2][12][10] Group 3 - The report discusses the financial indicators of related industries, indicating that revenue growth rates and profit margins are critical metrics for assessing the impact of anti-involution policies [3][4] - It highlights that since July 2025, many commodities related to anti-involution have seen price increases, driving up the performance of relevant sector indices [2][12] - The report suggests that the anti-involution policies are expected to improve gross margins and capacity utilization, thereby enhancing the long-term investment value of related sectors [2][12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][23]. Core Views - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 17% in the first half of 2025, with revenue reaching 20.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.1%. The net profit was 1.9 billion yuan, down 16.6% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 2.01 billion yuan, down 6.8% year-on-year. The net cash flow from operating activities was 4.43 billion yuan [5][6]. - The decline in profitability is primarily due to falling coal prices. In the first half of 2025, coal production was 3.71 million tons, returning to normal levels, with production costs decreasing to 682 yuan per ton from 862 yuan per ton in 2024. However, coal prices fell more significantly, with an average selling price of 773 yuan per ton, down 260 yuan per ton from 2024. The gross profit per ton of coal was 91 yuan, a decrease of 78 yuan from 2024. Starting from the end of June, coking coal prices have rebounded, and the profitability of the coal segment is expected to improve in the third quarter [5][6]. - The electrolytic aluminum segment showed stable profitability, with production reaching 870,000 tons in the first half of 2025, marking the first full production year since the establishment of Yunnan Shenhuo. The operating cost for electrolytic aluminum was 12,283 yuan per ton, with a gross profit of 3,986 yuan per ton, remaining stable compared to the full year of 2024 [2][5]. Financial Forecasts and Key Indicators - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 39.606 billion yuan, 39.827 billion yuan, and 39.827 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 4.56 billion yuan, 4.78 billion yuan, and 4.84 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 5.9%, 4.9%, and 1.2% [3][21]. - The diluted EPS for 2025-2027 is projected to be 2.03 yuan, 2.13 yuan, and 2.15 yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 9.5x, 9.0x, and 8.9x [2][21]. - The company is positioned as a leading player in the domestic electrolytic aluminum market, benefiting from structural reforms in supply-side management and is currently in an industry upcycle. With the end of large-scale capital expenditures, there is potential for increased dividends [2][21].