Core Viewpoint - The debate surrounding the economic growth expectations from the proposed tax reform bill is intense, with contrasting views between the White House and independent economic forecasts regarding the potential impact on the economy and the federal deficit [1]. Group 1: Republican Optimism - Republican leaders assert that the tax reform will usher in a "golden age" of economic growth, with Trump claiming annual growth rates could triple or quintuple the Congressional Budget Office's (CBO) January forecast of 1.8% [2]. - The Senate Finance Committee Chairman, Mike Crapo, predicts a surge in capital formation, job creation, and wage increases as a result of the bill [2]. - The White House Council of Economic Advisers projects short-term GDP growth of 4.2% to 5.2% and long-term growth of 2.9% to 3.5%, significantly higher than estimates from the Tax Foundation [2]. Group 2: Cautious Economic Predictions - Economists express skepticism, noting that historical data shows the U.S. GDP growth has only exceeded 3% twice since 2005, and the 2017 tax cuts did not generate the promised self-funding revenue [3]. - The CBO estimates that the proposed tax bill could lead to an additional $2.4 trillion in federal deficit, raising concerns about its long-term economic impact [4]. Group 3: Independent Economic Assessments - The Tax Foundation estimates that the bill will only increase long-term GDP growth by 0.8%, with generated revenue covering about one-third of its costs [5]. - The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania predicts a mere 0.4% increase in GDP over the first decade, effectively raising the annual growth rate from 1.8% to 1.85% [5]. - The Joint Committee on Taxation anticipates that the revenue generated from the tax provisions will be less than 3% of the costs incurred by the bill [5]. - The Yale Budget Lab suggests that while the bill may raise growth rates to about 2% by 2027, the subsequent burden of federal debt will likely reverse this effect [5].

特朗普力推的《大漂亮法案》在众议院以微弱优势通过后，参议院成为决定其命运的关键。 最具争议的是，法案包含了将债务上限从4万亿提升至5万亿美元的条款，这一举措成为共和党内部的关 注焦点。参议员Rand Paul联合至少3名同僚强硬反对，威胁让法案夭折。美财政部长警告，如果不提高 债务上限，8月即将触及债务上限"X日期"。 参议院微妙平衡：三票定乾坤 据媒体最新报道，美国共和党在参议院仅有微弱多数，任何三名议员的反对都可能让法案夭折。 参议院多数党领袖John Thune面临与众议院议长Mike Johnson同样严峻的数学难题。5月份众议院版本仅 以1票优势惊险过关，为参议院博弈埋下不祥预兆。 比如众议院议员Chip Roy虽然投了赞成票，但其后在社交媒体上直言法案"必须在后续版本中得到改 善"。 债务上限：博弈主战场 参议院多数党领袖John Thune面临党内不同派系的拉锯：财政鹰派要求进一步削减开支，温和派则对医 保等社会项目的削减表示担忧。而债务上限是博弈的主战场。 报道称，参议员Rand Paul成为债务上限条款最直接的反对者。Paul在电视节目中明确表态： 如果债务上限条款被移除，我很可能会对法案其 ...