2025 年 08 月 25 日 宏观深度研究 证券分析师： 夏磊 S0350521090004 xial@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 美债的历史演进与当下困局 美国系列深度研究之三 《7 月政治局会议解读：长期无虞 短期无忧*夏 磊》——2025-07-31 《2025 年中期宏观经济形势与政策展望：新格局 下的中国经济：韧性与潜力*夏磊》——2025-07-08 《 黄 金 价 格 波 动 的 底 层 逻 辑 * 夏 磊 》 — — 2025-07-04 《宏观深度研究：影响土地市场的五大因素*夏磊》 ——2025-06-18 研究所： 《宏观深度研究：关于关税：特朗普的核心团队在 想什么？*夏磊》——2025-06-01 近年来，美国联邦政府债务规模持续攀升。奥巴马任期 8 年，债务从 10.6 万亿增至 19.9 万亿美元；特朗普第一任期，债务规模扩大至 27.8 万亿美 元，4 年增长 7.8 万亿美元；拜登任期结束时，债务总额已达 36.2 万亿 美元，4 年增长 8.5 万亿美元。债务增长速度不断加快，第一个 12 万亿 美元用时超 200 年，第二个 12 万亿美元约 ...

宏观经济研究 | 宏观经济研究 证券研究报告 2025 年 08 月 21 日 报告日期 分析师:段超 S0190516070004 duanchao@xyzq.com.cn 分析师:卓泓 S0190519070002 zhuohong@xyzq.com.cn 分析师:王祉凝 S0190525060004 wangzhining@xyzq.com.cn 相关研究 【兴证宏观】20250813-从关税到通胀, 还有多少步? 20250810-【 兴证宏观】海外周报第 78 复盘:供给如何影响美债价格? 投资要点: 《美丽大法案》落地后,其中减税、提高债务上限条款令市场担忧今年下半年美债供给放 量。在讨论后续的美债供给冲击之前,我们先回顾历史,分析与今年债务上限解决时点相 似的 2023年,美债供给怎样影响了美债收益率的表现。 ● 2023年回顾:债务上限延期后多因素推升美债收益率,利差倒挂加深,波动性高企。 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 1/16 > 整体走势:债务上限解除后,长短端收益率均步入上行通道,除了基本面韧性和紧货币 因素外,供给加速也是美债收益率的上拉力。尤其在 2023年三季度,美债收益率背离 经 ...

Core Viewpoint - S&P Global Ratings has confirmed the United States sovereign credit rating at "AA+/A-1+" with a stable outlook, reflecting confidence in the country's economic resilience and fiscal management [1] Economic Factors - The approval of the Trump administration's signature tax and spending legislation after seven months in office demonstrates the core policy agenda [1] - The increase in effective tariff rates is expected to substantially offset potential weaknesses in fiscal conditions, which could have been triggered by recent fiscal legislation involving tax increases and spending adjustments [1] Fiscal Outlook - The stable outlook reflects expectations of continued economic resilience in the U.S. [1] - The credibility and effectiveness of monetary policy execution are acknowledged [1] - Although the fiscal deficit remains high, it has not continued to expand, supporting the growth of general government net debt [1] - The debt ceiling has been raised by $5 trillion, contributing to the overall fiscal stability [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $37 trillion, exceeding expectations by five years, with a current debt-to-GDP ratio of over 120% [1][3] - Trump's fiscal policies, including a significant spending bill, are projected to increase the deficit by $4.1 trillion over the next decade, averaging over $400 billion annually [3][4] - Foreign holders of U.S. debt, particularly Japan, the UK, and China, have increased their holdings, which helps alleviate debt pressure but poses risks if they decide to sell [5][7] Group 2 - Trump's tariff policies have led to increased foreign purchases of U.S. goods, but have also created tensions, particularly with countries buying Russian oil [7][10] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions are influenced by rising debt levels and inflation data, with mixed opinions on whether to cut rates [4][8] - The recent regulatory changes regarding cryptocurrency by the Federal Reserve signal a trend towards easing regulations, which could impact the financial landscape [8][10]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $37 trillion, growing at an unprecedented rate, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability and future economic implications [1][2][4]. Debt Growth and Fiscal Pressure - The U.S. national debt reached $37 trillion as of August 12, 2024, a significant increase from $36 trillion just months prior, highlighting a rapid acceleration in borrowing [3][4]. - The Peterson Foundation noted that the speed of debt accumulation is faster than ever, with the debt increasing by $1 trillion in approximately 173 days at the current daily growth rate [4]. - The debt ceiling was raised by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion under the "Big and Beautiful" act, which has contributed to a rapid increase in debt levels [4][8]. Impact on Households and Credit Ratings - If the national debt were distributed among U.S. households, each would owe approximately $280,000, with individuals facing a debt burden of about $108,000 [2]. - The rising debt levels have led to a decline in trust in U.S. fiscal management, with major credit rating agencies downgrading the U.S. credit rating due to deteriorating fiscal conditions [5]. Fiscal Structure and Spending - Mandatory spending on Social Security, Medicare, and interest on the national debt has surged from 34% of total federal spending in 1965 to 73% in 2024, limiting discretionary spending [6][8]. - Interest payments on the national debt are projected to reach $1.4 trillion by 2025, accounting for 26.5% of federal revenue [8]. Revenue Challenges and Tax Policy - The "Big and Beautiful" act is expected to reduce tax revenue by approximately $220 billion in the 2025 fiscal year, exacerbating the fiscal deficit [8][9]. - Despite a significant increase in customs revenue due to tariff policies, the overall impact on reducing the national debt is considered minimal compared to rising healthcare costs [9][10]. Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - There is a notable divide within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate policies, with some members advocating for rate cuts to alleviate debt burdens while others express concerns about inflation [11][12]. - Recent economic data has fueled expectations for potential interest rate cuts, with market predictions indicating a high probability of rate reductions in the coming months [14].

Core Points - The total U.S. national debt has surpassed $37 trillion, which is approximately 1.27 times the nominal GDP for 2024 [1] - The average debt per American citizen is over $108,000, given the population of approximately 342 million [1] - The U.S. government has been accumulating debt at an unprecedented rate, with significant increases observed in recent months [2][4] Debt Accumulation Trends - The U.S. national debt reached $34 trillion in January 2024, increased to $35 trillion by July 2024, and then to $36 trillion by November 2024, showing a rapid accumulation of $1 trillion in just three months [2] - The debt grew from $36 trillion to $37 trillion between November 2024 and August 2025, taking approximately nine months for this increase [2] - Since the passage of the Fiscal Responsibility Act in June 2023, the national debt has been increasing at an average rate of $1 trillion every 100 days [8] Legislative Context - The debt ceiling, a tool created by Congress to control borrowing, has become a point of political contention, often leading to partisan conflicts [4][8] - The debt ceiling was raised to $31.4 trillion in 2021, and by January 2023, the debt had already surpassed this limit, prompting negotiations that resulted in the Fiscal Responsibility Act [8] - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has projected that the federal budget deficit will reach $1.9 trillion in fiscal year 2025, which is 6.2% of GDP, and could rise to $2.7 trillion by 2035 [10] Economic Implications - The increasing debt burden is expected to have long-term consequences for future generations, with concerns about the sustainability of U.S. debt levels [9][10] - The recent "Big and Beautiful" legislation, which includes raising the federal debt ceiling, is projected to increase the budget deficit by approximately $3.4 trillion over the next decade [9] - The rising debt and interest payments have led to credit rating downgrades by major agencies, reflecting growing concerns about the U.S. government's fiscal health [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On July 28, at the end of the month, the central bank conducted continuous large - scale net injections, resulting in a balanced and slightly loose capital market. The bond market continued its upward trend, while the convertible bond market adjusted, with most convertible bond issues declining. Yields on US Treasury bonds of various maturities generally increased, and yields on 10 - year government bonds of major European economies generally decreased [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News - **Domestic News**: - On July 28, China and the US held economic and trade talks in Stockholm, Sweden, aiming to translate the important consensus of the two heads of state into specific policies and actions [3]. - During the 14th Five - Year Plan period, the national cumulative new tax and fee cuts are expected to reach 10.5 trillion yuan, and export tax rebates are expected to exceed 9 trillion yuan [3]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized eight key tasks for the second half of the year, including implementing the strategy of expanding domestic demand and promoting high - quality development of key industrial chains [4]. - The national childcare subsidy program was announced. Starting from January 1, 2025, families with children under 3 years old can receive an annual subsidy of 3,600 yuan per child [4]. - **International News**: The US Treasury Department expects net borrowing of 1.007 trillion US dollars from July to September this year, an increase of more than 450 billion US dollars from the previous forecast, mainly due to the impact of the debt ceiling. It also expects net borrowing of 590 billion US dollars from October to December [6]. - **Commodities**: On July 28, WTI September crude oil futures rose 2.38% to 66.71 US dollars per barrel, Brent September crude oil futures rose 2.34% to 70.04 US dollars per barrel, COMEX August gold futures fell 0.77% to 3,310 US dollars per ounce, and NYMEX natural gas prices fell 2.04% to 3.032 US dollars per ounce [7]. 3.2 Capital Market - **Open Market Operations**: On July 28, the central bank conducted 495.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate, quantity - tender method, with a net injection of 325.1 billion yuan [9]. - **Funding Rates**: On July 28, due to the central bank's continuous large - scale net injections, major repurchase rates declined. DR001 dropped 5.53bp to 1.462%, and DR007 dropped 7.17bp to 1.581% [10]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics - **Interest - rate Bonds**: - **Spot Bond Yield Trends**: On July 28, the bond market continued its upward trend. By 20:00 Beijing time, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active issue 250011 fell 1.75bp to 1.7150%, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB bond active issue 250210 fell 2.75bp to 1.8000% [13]. - **Bond Tendering**: Information on the tendering of several bonds such as 25Nongfa Discount 06 (Add 3) and 25Guokai 06 (Add 25) was provided, including maturity, issuance scale, winning yield, etc. [14]. - **Credit Bonds**: - **Secondary - market Transaction Abnormalities**: On July 28, the transaction prices of 5 industrial bonds deviated by more than 10%. For example, "24Yuanhang Holdings PPN001 (Restructuring)" fell more than 13%, and "H1Bidi 01" rose more than 350% [14]. - **Credit Bond Events**: Multiple companies announced various events, such as Jingfeng Pharmaceutical failing to repay a 117 - million - yuan loan, Zhengbang Technology's subsidiary entering pre - reorganization, etc. [15]. - **Convertible Bonds**: - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indexes**: On July 28, the three major A - share stock indexes rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index rising 0.12%, 0.44%, and 0.96% respectively. The major convertible bond indexes fell, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index falling 0.70%, 0.62%, and 0.81% respectively [16]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking**: Taifu Convertible Bond announced not to redeem early and will not choose early redemption if the early - redemption clause is triggered again within the next three months [18]. - **Overseas Bond Markets**: - **US Bond Market**: On July 28, the yield of the 2 - year US Treasury bond remained unchanged at 3.91%, while yields on other maturities generally increased. The 10 - year US Treasury bond yield rose 2bp to 4.42% [21]. - **European Bond Market**: On July 28, the yield of the 10 - year UK government bond rose 3bp, while yields on 10 - year government bonds of other major European economies generally decreased. For example, the yield of the 10 - year German government bond fell 3bp to 2.69% [24]. - **Price Changes of Chinese - funded US - dollar Bonds**: As of the close on July 28, price changes of various Chinese - funded US - dollar bonds were provided, including daily changes, credit entities, bond balances, etc. [26].

Group 1: Domestic News - The China-US economic talks commenced in Stockholm on July 28, aiming to translate important consensus into specific policies and actions to advance bilateral economic relations [2] - The National Taxation Administration announced that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the cumulative new tax cuts and fee reductions are expected to reach 10.5 trillion yuan, significantly promoting economic and social development [2] Group 2: Industrial and Economic Policies - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized eight key areas for the second half of the year, including expanding domestic demand, promoting high-quality development of key industrial chains, and enhancing technological innovation [3] - A new childcare subsidy plan was announced, providing 3,600 yuan per child annually for children under three years old starting from January 1, 2025 [3] Group 3: International News - The U.S. Treasury Department projected a net borrowing of 1.007 trillion dollars for the third quarter, significantly higher than previous estimates due to the increase in the debt ceiling [4] - The U.S. government is accelerating bond issuance to replenish cash reserves after the debt ceiling was raised by 5 trillion dollars [4] Group 4: Financial Market Dynamics - On July 28, the central bank conducted a 4.958 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, resulting in a net cash injection of 3.251 billion yuan for the day [6][7] - The bond market showed a warming trend, with the yield on the 10-year government bond falling by 1.75 basis points to 1.7150% [8] Group 5: Commodity Market - International crude oil prices rose, with WTI crude oil futures increasing by 2.38% to 66.71 dollars per barrel [5] - Natural gas prices fell by 2.04% to 3.032 dollars per million British thermal units [5] Group 6: Credit Market - Several corporate bonds experienced significant price deviations, with "24远洋控股PPN001" dropping over 13% and "H1碧地04" declining over 10% [10] - Companies such as 景峰医药 and 正邦科技 faced financial difficulties, with the former unable to repay a loan and the latter entering pre-restructuring [11] Group 7: Convertible Bonds - The convertible bond market saw a collective decline, with major indices dropping by 0.70% to 0.81% on July 28 [15] - The trading volume in the convertible bond market decreased by 9.94 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [15]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Department is significantly increasing its borrowing forecast for the third quarter of 2023, expecting net borrowing to reach $1.007 trillion, a substantial increase of over 82% from the previous estimate of $554 billion due to the lifting of the debt ceiling [1][3]. Group 1: Borrowing Forecast and Debt Ceiling Impact - The Treasury's borrowing forecast for July to September has been raised by more than $450 billion, reflecting the acceleration of debt issuance following the increase of the debt ceiling by $5 trillion [1][3]. - The actual borrowing in the second quarter was only $65 billion, far below the anticipated $514 billion, primarily due to a lower-than-expected cash balance at the end of June [3][4]. - The cash balance at the end of June was reported at $457 billion, significantly lower than the previously assumed $850 billion, leading to a $393 billion shortfall that contributed to the increased borrowing needs [2][3]. Group 2: Cash Management and Future Projections - The Treasury aims to restore its cash balance to $850 billion by the end of September, primarily through the issuance of short-term debt [4][6]. - For the fourth quarter (October to December), the Treasury projects net borrowing of $590 billion, assuming the cash balance will recover to $850 billion [2][4]. - The Treasury's cash management strategy remains stable, with expectations that the debt issuance plan will align with previous quarterly refinancing levels [6]. Group 3: Revenue Changes and Economic Implications - Tariff revenues have increased significantly, with customs duties expected to rise further, although corporate tax revenues are projected to decline, partially offsetting tariff gains [5]. - In June, the U.S. recorded a fiscal surplus of over $27 billion, attributed mainly to customs tariff revenues, marking the first surplus for June since 2017 [5]. - The total tariff revenue for the fiscal year to date has reached $113 billion, an 86% increase year-over-year, setting a record for a single fiscal year [5].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury has significantly raised its quarterly borrowing estimate to $1 trillion due to the impact of the debt ceiling [1] Group 1: Borrowing Estimates - The net borrowing estimate for July to September is now projected at $1.01 trillion, up from the previous estimate of $554 billion made in April [1] - The increase in borrowing is attributed to the need to rebuild cash reserves after the debt ceiling was raised by $5 trillion earlier this month [1] Group 2: Cash Balance and Debt Issuance - The Treasury had to reduce bond issuance in the first half of the year to avoid hitting the debt ceiling, resulting in a lower-than-expected cash balance of $457 billion at the end of June, compared to an assumed balance of $850 billion [1] - The current borrowing estimate is $60 billion higher than the April forecast when not considering the lower-than-expected cash balance at the beginning of the quarter [1]