12月22日盘中，沪银期货主力合约遭遇一波急速上涨，最低下探至16282.00元。截止发稿，沪银主力合 约报16075.00元，涨幅5.18%。 国信期货：贵金属板块短期仍有望维持偏强走势 展望后市，贵金属板块短期仍有望维持偏强走势，但需警惕价格在连续大幅上涨后波动性显著加剧的风 险。技术面上，金银方面，沪金主力合约支撑参考960元/克附近，阻力关注990元/克附近；沪银主力合 约支撑关注15300元/千克附近，上方阻力看向16000元/千克附近。建议维持轻仓波段思路，以灵活应对 市场波动。 兴业期货：沪银02合约前多配合止盈线持有 COMEX交割大月再度加剧现货偏紧矛盾，伦敦白银现货三个月租赁利率已升至7.25%。商品属性与金 融属性利多共振，使得白银上涨弹性依然高于黄金。但短线从技术面看，白银做多策略拥挤度已较高， 以ETF为代表的投资资金趋于谨慎。策略上，沪银02合约前多配合止盈线持有，新单暂时观望。 中财期货：贵金属价格中枢仍有上行空间 美国12月密歇根大学消费者信心指数、11月成屋销售年化环比增长不及预期，利多金银，12月一年期通 胀率预期终值超预期，利空金银，整体看，利多金银。虽然日本央行加息，但 ...

美债近日又突破一个里程碑，30.20万亿美元。要知道2018时这个数字还是15万亿美元，7年时间翻了一 倍。其中包含了由全球投资者持有的各种美国国债，若加上政府内部债务，联邦总负债已达38.40万亿 美元， 逼近41.10万亿美元的法定债务上限。 算下来，年支付利息高达1.2万亿美元，相当于新西兰一年的GDP。 三是，外资"口嫌体正直"，外资嘴上看空，但行动上确不断增持美债，比起日债和欧洲，美债显然更具 有吸引力。 2026年，怎么看？ 目前民调显示，选民最不满的是 "支付困境"——物价与收入之间的鸿沟。为挽救支持率，白宫的政策 工具箱已经打开。若民意回升，美联储可能温和降息(如75个基点)，财政以落实减税为主。 债务持续飙升的根源在于长期的收支失衡。美国政府支出与收入之间的缺口持续存在，这是过去二十年 债务不断加剧的原因。而在新冠疫情后情况更趋恶化，因为大量债务是在更高的利率水平下借入的。 IMF警告，美国债务占GDP的比重已达125%，远超对发达经济体建议的100%门槛。IMF预测，到2030 年，将飙升至143.4%，甚至超过意大利和希腊。 但戏剧性的是，美债规模创纪录的同时，回报却也相当丰厚。 这里原 ...

美国政府持有的可交易国债规模在11月首次突破30万亿美元，较2018年实现翻倍增长。 智通财经APP获悉，据周四公布的数据，美国财政部发行的国库券、票据和长期债券的总规模在11月增 长约0.7%，达到30.2万亿美元。 2020年为应对新冠疫情冲击，美国财政部通过发行国债融资达4.3万亿美元，使当年财政赤字超过3万亿 美元。BNP Paribas美国利率策略主管Guneet Dhingra指出，美国公共财政过去20年一直存在"支出长期大 于收入"的结构性问题，"而疫情之后大量债务在更高利率下发行，使利息支出成为进一步恶化财政动态 的关键因素。" 尽管美国财政赤字自2020年高峰后有所收窄，2025财年的赤字降至约1.78万亿美元，这在很大程度上得 益于今年大规模关税带来的收入。利息成本仍在快速攀升，仅2025财年的债务利息支出就高达1.2万亿 美元。 尽管财政部过去两年大部分长期债券拍卖规模保持稳定，并预计未来数个季度不会调整，官员们上月表 示已开始"初步考虑未来增发"的可能性。 可交易国债是美国整体国家债务的最大组成部分。截至11月，美国国家债务总规模达到38.4万亿美元， 其中包括对社会保障信托基金、储蓄 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term trend of precious metals is rated as "oscillating weakly", and the long - term trend remains bullish [1][3] Core Viewpoints - Trade frictions ease, leading to a decline in safe - haven demand and a short - term weakening of precious metal prices. However, the expectation of interest rate cuts still provides support, and trading within the range with strict risk control is recommended [1] - The precious metals have entered a phased adjustment, but the long - term bullish trend remains unchanged due to factors such as debt over - issuance and the decline of the US dollar's credit [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Key Information - The US and China reached a "substantive framework" in Kuala Lumpur, and the threat of 100% tariffs on China was lifted; the assessment of rare - earth related controls was postponed [2] - The US CPI in September was lower than expected, leading the market to price in further interest rate cuts this week and this year [2] - Due to the government shutdown, the release of inflation data in October may be delayed, increasing the market's bet on interest rate cuts and the halt of balance - sheet reduction [2] - The US fiscal deficit in Q3 reached $1.55 trillion, a year - on - year increase of about 40%, driving the market's bet on long - term monetary easing [2] - The ECB may consider reducing the emergency bond - buying program this year if external shocks are controllable [2] - Global central banks net - purchased about 38 tons of gold in September, with the People's Bank of China increasing its holdings for the 23rd consecutive month [2] - The Philippine central bank is considering selling part of its "excessive" gold reserves as the demand for safe - haven weakens [2] Price Logic - Gold has started a phased adjustment, with short - term prices being suppressed by the easing of trade tensions. The focus in Q4 is on the December window period. In the long run, gold remains a core asset to hedge against the risk of the US dollar's credit decline [3] - Silver's short - term price movement is in line with that of gold, also entering a phased adjustment. The short - term price is affected by policies and risk sentiment, and the long - term price center will rise with gold [3][6] Outlook - This week, attention should be paid to the signals of the FOMC's interest rate cuts and balance - sheet reduction, as well as the details of trade negotiations. The weekly price range for London gold is [3950 - 4200], and for London silver is [46 - 52] [6]

Key Insights - The current federal government shutdown lacks a debt ceiling component, which reduces immediate risks compared to past shutdowns [6][7] - Economic data releases are delayed or postponed, impacting market navigation and decision-making for investors [6][8] - The U.S. Treasury market is expected to operate normally without concerns over redemptions or new issuances due to the increased debt ceiling [7][8] Economic Data - Major economic indicators such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Retail Sales, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) are likely to be delayed if the shutdown continues [6][8] - Investors may need to rely on alternative private data sources, such as ISM and S&P Global PMI, until official data is released [13] Federal Reserve & Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve is not expected to cut rates during the current FOMC meeting despite the shutdown, maintaining a focus on risk management [13] - The UST 10-Year yield is anticipated to remain stable until economic data resumes [13]

Group 1 - The U.S. national debt has surged from $16 trillion in 2013 to over $32 trillion, with interest payments projected to reach nearly $1 trillion in 2024, indicating unsustainable fiscal policies [2][4] - The debt-to-GDP ratio is approaching 130%, which is considered high among developed countries, raising concerns among economists about long-term sustainability [4] - Foreign ownership of U.S. debt has decreased, with China reducing its holdings to $730.7 billion, the lowest since 2008, as geopolitical tensions and currency diversification strategies take precedence [4][6] Group 2 - The overall foreign ownership of U.S. debt has dropped from a peak of 30% to around 23%, with significant reductions from various foreign investors, including the Cayman Islands and European tax havens [7] - U.S. domestic institutions hold over $20 trillion in debt, but this internal transfer does not alleviate the burden of interest payments, which are projected to reach $230.6 billion in 2024 [7][9] - The U.S. housing market is under pressure, with a total housing market value exceeding $55.1 trillion, but new home sales are declining due to high mortgage rates, which remain elevated compared to pre-pandemic levels [9][11] Group 3 - The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) in March 2023 highlighted vulnerabilities in the banking system, leading to tighter credit conditions and impacting the real estate sector [11][13] - Economic indicators show a mixed picture for the U.S., with a GDP contraction of 0.5% in Q1 2025, followed by a rebound of 3.8% in Q2, but persistent inflation and high unemployment rates remain concerns [13][15] - The IMF projects global growth at 2.8%, with emerging markets, particularly China, expected to drive a significant portion of this growth, while the U.S. faces challenges from high debt and low growth [15][17] Group 4 - The trend of decoupling from the U.S. dollar is evident, with countries reassessing their investments in U.S. assets, leading to a potential restructuring of global supply chains [17] - The overall investment climate in the U.S. is weakening, with forecasts indicating that the economic recovery may not be sustainable, and inflation pressures continue to pose risks [17]

Core Points - The U.S. banking system's reserves have increased for the first time in nine weeks, surpassing $3 trillion [1] - As of the week ending October 8, bank reserves rose by approximately $54 billion, reaching $3.034 trillion [1] - Prior to this increase, reserves had been declining for eight consecutive weeks, marking the longest continuous drop since July 2020 [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Bank Reserves**: The increase in bank reserves is a significant indicator for the Federal Reserve's decision to continue reducing its balance sheet [1] - **Recent Trends**: The decline in reserves was influenced by the U.S. Treasury's increased issuance of debt following the raising of the debt ceiling in July, aimed at rebuilding cash balances [1] - **Liquidity Impact**: The reduction in reserves was also linked to the depletion of liquidity in other Federal Reserve liabilities, such as the overnight reverse repurchase (RRP) agreements [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recurring government shutdowns in the U.S. have become a normalized event, with the latest occurring on October 1, 2025, impacting over 800,000 federal employees and delaying crucial economic data, yet the financial markets remain largely unaffected [2][3][4]. Group 1: Impact on Economic Data - The shutdown has led to the postponement of key economic reports such as non-farm payroll and CPI data, creating challenges for analysts who must rely on private data sources to estimate employment rates [3][4]. - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that a one-month shutdown could reduce GDP by 0.3 percentage points, with unemployment potentially rising to between 4.8% and 5% [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Despite the shutdown, bond yields have shown minimal volatility, and the stock market continues to perform well, indicating a detachment from political events [3][4]. - Market participants appear to have developed a "selective blindness" towards political uncertainties, leading to a temporary reduction in market volatility [5]. Group 3: Long-term Implications - The ongoing political dysfunction and inability to pass budgets are eroding government credibility, which could have long-term consequences for economic stability and investor trust [4][6]. - The U.S. public debt has surpassed $35 trillion, over 130% of GDP, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability and the potential for a future financial crisis if political solutions remain ineffective [5][6]. Group 4: Global Trust and Currency Stability - The international standing of the U.S. dollar relies heavily on global trust in American institutions; frequent fiscal chaos may prompt other nations to diversify their reserves away from the dollar [6][8]. - Central banks worldwide have been increasing their holdings of gold and non-dollar assets, indicating a growing concern over the reliability of U.S. fiscal policy [6][8].

Core Insights - The potential government shutdown in the U.S. poses "invisible risks" to economic growth, key economic data, and specific financial instruments, although it does not present a systemic risk of default as seen in 2013 [1][2][8] Economic Impact - A comprehensive government shutdown could lead to 800,000 federal employees being furloughed, resulting in a weekly reduction of approximately 0.2 percentage points in annualized real GDP growth [1][5] - The previous shutdown in 2013 resulted in a $8 billion decline in annualized federal consumption expenditure, which ultimately reduced the fourth-quarter GDP growth by 30 basis points (0.3%) [5] - Even without a shutdown, federal government spending has already been a drag on GDP growth, contributing to an average reduction of about 40 basis points for the first half of 2025 [7] Data Release Delays - The shutdown would delay the release of critical economic data such as employment reports and the Consumer Price Index (CPI), as employees from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) may be furloughed [3][4] - Historical data from the 2013 shutdown indicates that the release of employment and CPI data was significantly delayed, leading to a chaotic data release schedule [3][4] Financial Instruments Impact - The delay in CPI data will have specific implications for financial instruments such as Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) and inflation swaps, affecting their valuation and cash flows [9][11] - TIPS payments will be calculated using a backup index based on the most recent annualized inflation rate if the September CPI report is not released on time [11] - Inflation swaps will follow a different protocol, using actual data if released within five business days of the payment date; otherwise, a backup calculation will be employed [11]

Group 1 - The U.S. federal debt reached the statutory limit of $31.4 trillion on January 19, 2023, triggering a debt ceiling crisis that required urgent action from Congress [2] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary warned that failure to raise the debt ceiling could lead to delayed payments for social security and military salaries, highlighting the urgency of the situation [2] - The Fiscal Responsibility Act was passed on June 3, 2023, suspending the debt ceiling until January 1, 2025, effectively increasing the borrowing capacity by several trillion dollars [2] Group 2 - The U.S. has been facing repeated debt ceiling crises due to excessive spending, including pandemic stimulus plans and military expenditures, which have significantly increased the national debt [2] - Credit rating agencies, such as Moody's and S&P, have downgraded the U.S. credit outlook, reflecting concerns about the country's fiscal health and its impact on international confidence [3] Group 3 - China is the largest foreign holder of U.S. debt, with holdings around $800 billion in early 2023, accounting for over 10% of total foreign ownership [4] - During the 2023 debt crisis, the U.S. sought to encourage China to increase its purchases of U.S. debt to stabilize the market, as a reduction in Chinese holdings could lead to increased volatility in bond yields [4] Group 4 - Contrary to U.S. expectations, China began to reduce its holdings of U.S. debt, decreasing from $800 billion to $770 billion in the first half of 2023, and further down to $750 billion by the end of the year [6] - By March 2024, China had sold a total of $400 billion in U.S. debt, indicating a strategic shift towards diversifying its reserves amid geopolitical tensions and reduced trade surpluses [6] Group 5 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary publicly emphasized the importance of the U.S. debt market for global stability, urging China not to withdraw its investments [7] - Despite the U.S. government's concerns, China's response has been to maintain a market-driven approach to its foreign reserves, leading to a gradual reduction in U.S. debt holdings [7] Group 6 - The U.S. military has increased its presence in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait, coinciding with the debt ceiling crisis, indicating a dual strategy of economic stability and military pressure [9][10] - The frequency of U.S. military aircraft operations in the Taiwan Strait has increased, reflecting ongoing tensions and the U.S. commitment to monitoring Chinese military activities [10] Group 7 - The U.S. faces a challenging situation where rising debt interest payments are projected to exceed 3% of GDP by 2025, while military spending continues to escalate, exceeding $900 billion in the fiscal year 2025 [14] - Analysts suggest that if China continues to sell off U.S. debt, bond yields could rise above 5%, complicating the Federal Reserve's plans for interest rate cuts [14] Group 8 - The ongoing military pressure from the U.S. in the Asia-Pacific region is seen as a way to balance China's influence while simultaneously seeking to stabilize the U.S. debt market [12][15] - The dual approach of seeking Chinese investment in U.S. debt while increasing military presence in sensitive regions reflects the complexities of U.S. foreign policy amid economic challenges [15]