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华策影视(300133):业绩低于预期 电影业务或拖累四季度利润
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-10-25 06:32
Core Viewpoint - The company's Q3 2025 performance fell short of expectations, primarily due to a lower number of confirmed series releases [1] Group 1: Q3 2025 Performance - Revenue for Q3 2025 was 251 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 52.2% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 57.61 million yuan, down 39.4% year-on-year [1] - Non-recurring net profit attributable to shareholders was 12.39 million yuan, a significant drop of 82.9% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Development Trends - The company launched fewer series in Q3 2025 and is focusing on short dramas and AI applications [2] - The company premiered series "Jinxiu Fanghua" and "Our Rivers and Mountains" in Q3 2025 [2] - The upcoming film "Assassination Novelist 2" is expected to be released during the National Day holiday, with a cumulative box office of 364 million yuan as of October 24, 2025, potentially leading to losses [2] - The company has established a professional micro-short drama creation team with a monthly output of around 20 episodes [2] - The company is enhancing the proportion of original projects while developing IP linkage between long and short dramas [2] - The company has launched two self-developed large models, "Guose" and "Youfeng," to assist in the creation of micro-short dramas [2] - Gross margin for Q3 2025 was 46.3%, with fluctuations attributed to variations in the proportion of customized series [2] - Operating expenses were well-controlled, with sales expenses remaining stable and management and R&D expenses slightly declining [2] Group 3: Future Prospects - The company has a rich reserve of upcoming series, including "Taiping Year," "Family Business," "Flower Good," and "A Day in July" [3] - Upcoming films include "Wild Era" scheduled for November 22 and "Seeking Qin Chronicles" [3] - There is potential for improvement in cash flow and series production capacity following the refinement of broadcasting regulations [3] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to the lackluster performance of films in Q4 and uncertainties regarding future projects, the net profit forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been reduced by 56.6% and 9.5% to 181 million yuan and 406 million yuan, respectively [4] - The current price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 35.2 times for 2026 [4] - The target price has been lowered by 8.5% to 8.6 yuan, reflecting a 40 times P/E for 2026, indicating a potential upside of 14.2% [4]