证券研究报告 | 2025年11月04日 传媒互联网周报 优于大市 《逃离鸭科夫》销量突破 200 万，看好板块向上机会 投资建议：持续看好游戏板块新品周期与 IP 潮玩、把握 AI 应用机会。1） 持续看好游戏、IP 潮玩景气周期；游戏板块近期调整赋予良好机会，结合 产品周期及业绩表现，推荐巨人网络、恺英网络、吉比特等标的；IP 潮 玩重点推荐泡泡玛特；媒体端关注经济底部向上可能（分众传媒等）； 2）关注内容政策转向与 AI 应用机会；影视内容关注政策转向、供给端 底部改善带动需求改善可能，推荐平台（芒果超媒、哔哩哔哩）、内容 （光线传媒、华策影视等）以及播放渠道（万达电影等）；AI 应用重点 把握应用场景机会，关注 AI 动漫短剧、玩具、广告、教育、电商、社 交等方向。 风险提示：监管政策风险；业绩风险；商誉及资产减值风险等。 重点公司盈利预测及投资评级 | 公司 | 公司 | 投资 | 昨收盘 | 总市值 | EPS | | PE | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 代码 | 名称 | 评级 | （元） | （亿元） ...

11月4日，华策影视盘中下跌2.14%，截至14:27，报7.77元/股，成交4.69亿元，换手率3.70%，总市值 146.72亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流出6651.38万元，特大单买入1960.02万元，占比4.18%，卖出6352.04万 元，占比13.54%；大单买入1.02亿元，占比21.72%，卖出1.24亿元，占比26.54%。 华策影视今年以来股价涨8.11%，近5个交易日涨2.78%，近20日跌11.70%，近60日跌0.26%。 今年以来华策影视已经1次登上龙虎榜，最近一次登上龙虎榜为8月18日，当日龙虎榜净买入2.62亿元； 买入总计4.76亿元 ，占总成交额比13.25%；卖出总计2.14亿元 ，占总成交额比5.95%。 责任编辑：小浪快报 华策影视所属申万行业为：传媒-影视院线-影视动漫制作。所属概念板块包括：手游、IP概念（谷子经 济）、网络游戏、影视动漫、网红经济等。 截至9月30日，华策影视股东户数6.63万，较上期减少10.18%；人均流通股24500股，较上期增加 11.33%。2025年1月-9月，华策影视实现营业收入10.41亿元，同比增长16.62%；归母净利 ...

Core Insights - The film and cinema sector saw a significant increase of 3.14% on November 3, with Huanrui Century leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3976.52, up 0.55%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13404.06, up 0.19% [1] Stock Performance - Huanrui Century (000892) closed at 7.85, with a rise of 9.94% and a trading volume of 613,000 shares, amounting to a transaction value of 473 million yuan [1] - Other notable performers included: - Happiness Blue Ocean (300528) at 23.73, up 7.86% [1] - China Film (600977) at 15.04, up 4.01% [1] - Light Media (300251) at 17.45, up 3.56% [1] Capital Flow - The film and cinema sector experienced a net inflow of 67.93 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net outflow of 146 million yuan [2] - The main capital inflow was observed in Light Media (300251) with 91.86 million yuan, while Happiness Blue Ocean (300528) had a net inflow of 34.41 million yuan [3] Individual Stock Analysis - Light Media (300251) had a net inflow of 91.86 million yuan, representing 7.09% of its total trading volume [3] - Happiness Blue Ocean (300528) saw a net inflow of 34.41 million yuan, accounting for 3.23% of its trading volume [3] - China Film (600977) had a mixed capital flow with a net inflow of 8.65 million yuan from institutional investors but a significant outflow from retail investors [3]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3976.52 points, above the annual line, with a gain of 0.55% [1] - The total trading volume of A-shares reached 21,329.04 million yuan [1] Stocks Breaking Annual Line - A total of 110 A-shares have surpassed the annual line today, with notable stocks including: - Deer Chemical with a deviation rate of 14.65% - Yabao Chemical at 11.35% - Fushi Holdings at 10.87% [1] Top Stocks by Deviation Rate - The following stocks had the highest deviation rates from the annual line: - Deer Chemical: 20.75% increase, latest price 16.06 yuan, deviation rate 14.65% [1] - Yabao Chemical: 11.98% increase, latest price 8.13 yuan, deviation rate 11.35% [1] - Fushi Holdings: 13.39% increase, latest price 5.76 yuan, deviation rate 10.87% [1] Additional Stocks with Notable Performance - Other stocks with significant performance include: - Meirui New Materials: 19.99% increase, latest price 18.97 yuan, deviation rate 9.48% [1] - Intercontinental Oil and Gas: 10.13% increase, latest price 2.61 yuan, deviation rate 9.37% [1] - Tianjin Pulin: 10.00% increase, latest price 22.23 yuan, deviation rate 7.84% [1]

Core Insights - The comic drama market is experiencing a significant explosion, with a 12-fold increase in revenue over the past six months and an expected market size surpassing 20 billion [1][2] - The growth is driven by increased demand, technological breakthroughs in AI, and support from platforms that can leverage existing IP [2][3] Market Dynamics - The comic drama market is characterized by a unique blend of short dramas and traditional animation, catering to fragmented content consumption needs, particularly among young male audiences in high-tier cities [2] - The application of AI technology in the entire production chain has drastically reduced production cycles by 80%-90% and costs by 70%-90% [2][3] Industry Structure - The comic drama industry is evolving into a value chain that includes IP script development, adaptation, production, distribution, and platform operation [3] - The main bottlenecks in the industry are on the supply side, with a need for content expansion and attracting diverse participants such as copyright holders and production teams [3] Technological Advancements - Rapid advancements in AI video models and tools are laying a solid foundation for the development of AI comic dramas, with decreasing costs enhancing efficiency [3] Investment Opportunities - Key companies to watch in the AI comic drama industry include Mango Excellent Media, Bilibili, and Reading Group, among others, across various segments such as IP content, production, tools, distribution, and platforms [4]

Group 1 - The report highlights that Fengshen Co., the only centrally controlled tire listed company in China, has entered a growth phase with a 168% year-on-year increase in net profit for Q3 2025 [2][6][7] - The company achieved a revenue of 5.543 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a 13.58% increase year-on-year, despite a decline in net profit [6][8] - The average selling price of products increased by 7.88% year-on-year to 1198 yuan per tire, contributing to improved profitability [8][10] Group 2 - Dongfang Tower benefited from the potassium fertilizer boom, reporting a 77.57% increase in net profit for Q3 2025, with a revenue of 3.392 billion yuan [16][17] - The company’s gross profit margin increased by 10.23 percentage points to 40.53% due to rising potassium prices [17][19] - The average price of potassium chloride reached 3269 yuan per ton in Q3 2025, up 773 yuan per ton year-on-year [17][19] Group 3 - Longbai Group's net profit decreased by 34.68% year-on-year in Q3 2025, impacted by falling titanium dioxide prices, with a revenue of 6.105 billion yuan [23][24] - The average price of titanium dioxide fell by 2018 yuan per ton year-on-year, leading to a significant profit squeeze [25][27] - The company is pursuing a strategic acquisition of Venator UK's titanium dioxide assets to enhance its global presence [27][29] Group 4 - Shanmei International reported a 30.20% decline in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, with a net profit drop of 49.74% [32][33] - The company’s coal production increased by 8.73% year-on-year, while trade coal sales fell by 28.50% [35][36] - The average selling price of self-produced coal decreased by 24.72% year-on-year, affecting overall profitability [36][37] Group 5 - Fenhong Media achieved a total revenue of 9.607 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a 3.73% year-on-year growth [38][39] - The company’s gross profit margin improved significantly, reaching 74.1% in Q3 2025 [40][41] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.5 yuan per share, indicating a commitment to shareholder returns [41][42] Group 6 - Yunnan Rural Commercial Bank reported a 0.67% increase in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, with a net profit growth of 3.74% [43][44] - The bank's non-performing loan ratio decreased to 1.12%, reflecting improved asset quality [44]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the media industry [4]. Core Insights - The media sector combines technology application and discretionary consumption, with a high proportion of "expectation" factors influencing valuations. The third quarter of 2025 saw an increase in EPS, leading to a shift towards PE-driven phases. The upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" completion and the initiation of the "15th Five-Year Plan" are expected to drive new growth through state-owned enterprise reforms and technological advancements [3][14]. - The report highlights three key dimensions for investment focus: state-owned enterprise reform, the cinema sector in Q4 2025, and the new cycle of AI applications driving media sector valuations [3][14]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Review - The media sector's performance from October 27 to October 31, 2025, showed varied results, with the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index experiencing slight increases. The media sub-sectors had notable fluctuations, with BlueFocus and other companies showing significant gains [13][19]. 2. Key Company Recommendations - The report recommends several companies within the media sector, including: - Oriental Pearl (600637): Improved cash flow and AI-driven development [4]. - BlueFocus (300058): AI-driven revenue target of 3.47 billion to 4.7 billion for the year [4]. - Mango Excellent Media (300413): Recovery in advertising revenue [4]. - Wanda Film (002739): Focus on industry competition [4]. - Other notable mentions include CITIC Publishing (300788), Huace Film & TV (300133), and Shanghai Film (601595) [4]. 3. Financial Performance - The report indicates that the total net profit for the A-share media sector in Q3 2025 reached 10.079 billion, a 48% year-on-year increase, driven by low base effects and new product launches [14]. 4. AI and Technology Integration - The report emphasizes the ongoing exploration of AI's potential in the media sector, with companies leveraging AI for content creation and operational efficiency. The integration of AI is expected to enhance revenue generation and valuation in the media industry [15][16]. 5. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the film market is experiencing a resurgence, with significant box office revenues and a growing number of films being produced and released. The micro-drama sector is also expanding rapidly, indicating a shift in consumer demand towards shorter, more engaging content [29][30]. 6. E-commerce Trends - E-commerce platforms are adapting to consumer preferences, with innovations in product offerings and service models. The report highlights the competitive landscape among major players like Alibaba, JD, and Pinduoduo, particularly during promotional events like Double 11 [24][25]. 7. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the media sector will continue to benefit from technological advancements and policy support, particularly in the context of the "15th Five-Year Plan" aimed at cultural and technological integration [16]. 8. Company Performance Forecasts - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) forecasts for various companies, indicating a generally positive outlook for the media sector [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic television industry, benefiting from favorable new policies for drama series, a rich film reserve, and active expansion into computing power, short dramas, and overseas markets [6][8] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company's revenue was 251 million yuan, a year-over-year decline of 52.21%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 58 million yuan, down 39.38% year-over-year. This decline is attributed to the impact of platform scheduling on revenue recognition for drama projects and a decrease in film project contributions [5][6] - The net profit margin for Q3 2025 was 23.86%, an increase of 5.65 percentage points year-over-year, while the gross profit margin was 46.33%, up 14.92 percentage points year-over-year [5] Business Development - The drama business is steadily advancing and is expected to benefit from new broadcasting policies. Several dramas are in various stages of production and release, with multiple projects scheduled for airing in 2025 [6] - The company has a rich pipeline of films, with the main investment in "Assassination Novelist 2" set for release during the National Day holiday in 2025, which has so far grossed 375 million yuan, slightly below expectations [6] - The micro-short drama market is rapidly developing, with the company establishing a comprehensive system for production, quality, and ecosystem, achieving a monthly production capacity of 20 episodes [6] Earnings Forecast - The company’s revenue projections for 2025-2027 are as follows: 2,109 million yuan in 2025, 2,714 million yuan in 2026, and 3,336 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 8.79%, 28.67%, and 22.90% respectively [8][9] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 205 million yuan in 2025, 393 million yuan in 2026, and 490 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of -15.67%, 91.87%, and 24.52% respectively [8][9]

Market Performance - The film and cinema sector increased by 3.33% on October 31, with Huanrui Century leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3954.79, down 0.81%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13378.21, down 1.14% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Huanrui Century (000892) closed at 7.14, up 10.02% with a trading volume of 1.24 million shares and a transaction value of 876 million [1] - Bona Film Group (001330) closed at 6.83, up 9.98% with a trading volume of 499,100 shares and a transaction value of 334 million [1] - Jiechuan Co. (300182) closed at 6.65, up 6.57% with a trading volume of 3.07 million shares and a transaction value of 2.01 billion [1] - Other notable stocks include Shanghai Shenying (601595) at 30.05, up 6.00%, and Shifuhai (300528) at 22.00, up 5.47% [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The film and cinema sector saw a net inflow of 700 million from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 402 million [1] - Huanrui Century had a net inflow of 1.49 billion from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 716.95 million from retail investors [2] - Bona Film Group experienced a net inflow of 1.01 billion from institutional investors, with a significant net outflow of 5.53 billion from retail investors [2]

Core Viewpoint - Huace Film & TV, a leading player in the domestic film and television industry, has demonstrated strong operational performance and strategic positioning within the market [1][2]. Group 1: Business Performance - For Q3 2025, Huace Film & TV reported revenue of 1.041 billion yuan, ranking 5th in the industry, surpassing the industry average of 1.007 billion yuan and the median of 404 million yuan [2] - The net profit for the same period was 184 million yuan, placing the company 3rd in the industry, above the industry average of 63.78 million yuan and the median of -13.98 million yuan [2] Group 2: Financial Ratios - As of Q3 2025, Huace Film & TV's debt-to-asset ratio was 35.25%, an increase from 26.13% year-on-year, but still below the industry average of 44.28% [3] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was 34.84%, down from 38.10% year-on-year, yet higher than the industry average by 0.44% [3] Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of A-share shareholders decreased by 10.18% to 66,300, while the average number of circulating A-shares held per shareholder increased by 11.33% to 24,500 [5] - The top ten circulating shareholders included Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which increased its holdings by 4.12 million shares [5] Group 4: Management Compensation - The chairman, Zhao Yifang, received a salary of 2.588 million yuan in 2024, a decrease of 77,100 yuan from 2023 [4] - The president, Fu Binxing, received a salary of 3.0012 million yuan in 2024, an increase of 28,300 yuan from 2023 [4] Group 5: Strategic Outlook - The company is focusing on a rich pipeline of television projects and multiple upcoming films, with an emphasis on short dramas and animation [6] - Huace Film & TV's overseas revenue grew by 28.48% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, indicating successful international market expansion [6]