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Wealth Broker观察|印象大红袍港股IPO,小盘股会成妖王?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-15 12:03
Group 1 - The company, Impression Dahongpao Co., Ltd. (stock code: 02695.HK), has officially launched its IPO in Hong Kong, focusing on a single live performance, "Impression Dahongpao," as its core business in the cultural tourism sector [1] - The company's revenue for 2023 is projected at 144 million yuan, with a net profit of 47.5 million yuan. For 2024, revenue is expected to decrease to 137 million yuan and net profit to 42.8 million yuan. The first half of 2025 shows revenue of 56 million yuan and net profit of 6.775 million yuan, indicating performance pressure [3] - Over 94% of the company's revenue is dependent on a single performance, posing a significant risk. Although new projects like "Moonlight Wuyi" are being developed, they are still in the cultivation phase and unlikely to contribute profits in the short term [3] Group 2 - Impression Dahongpao is one of the few pure cultural tourism performance companies in the Hong Kong market, making it a rare investment opportunity. The IPO has a limited number of shares available, leading to a small issuance scale and low liquidity [4] - The IPO structure lacks cornerstone investors and a mechanism for share reallocation, which, combined with its unique regional cultural tourism concept, may lead to significant price volatility due to supply-demand imbalances [4] - The estimated static price-to-earnings ratio at the upper end of the offering price is approximately 12.7 times for 2024, reflecting a discount compared to similar companies in the A-share market, indicating differences in business models and growth potential [4] Group 3 - The IPO presents a high difficulty and volatility for investors, with a low chance of winning shares due to limited public offering and high competition in the market [5] - The long-term investment narrative of the company is constrained by the ceiling of a single IP, suggesting that short-term performance may be driven more by liquidity, market sentiment, and speculative trading rather than fundamental value [5] - Key variables influencing the IPO include the oversubscription multiple during the subscription period and the overall sentiment in the new stock market and cultural tourism sector leading up to the listing [8]