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腾讯控股(00700):游戏业务保持强劲动能
citic securities· 2026-02-04 13:21
Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on Tencent, expecting robust performance with significant year-on-year growth in total revenue and adjusted EBIT for Q4 2025 [5]. Core Insights - Tencent's gaming business is projected to continue its strong momentum, driven by evergreen games and the new hit game "Delta Operation" [5][6]. - Despite a weak macro environment, the advertising business is expected to grow year-on-year, supported by advancements in advertising technology and increased transactions [5][7]. - Tencent is anticipated to maintain double-digit growth in both gaming and advertising sectors in 2026, bolstered by its leading AI application plans [5]. Summary by Relevant Sections Gaming Business - Tencent's Q4 2025 gaming revenue is expected to show year-on-year growth, with both domestic and international revenues contributing positively [6]. - Domestic growth is fueled by strong performances from long-standing games like "Honor of Kings" and "League of Legends: Wild Rift," along with the new game "Delta Operation" [6]. - International revenue benefits from strong deferred income and the performance of established titles, as well as new releases [6]. Advertising Business - The online advertising revenue for Q4 2025 is projected to grow year-on-year, driven by improvements in advertising technology and increased traffic from video accounts [7]. - The WeChat ecosystem is showing operational momentum, with active merchant numbers and GMV both increasing year-on-year [7]. Enterprise Services - Revenue from Tencent's Financial Technology and Enterprise Services (FBS) is likely to grow year-on-year in Q4 2025, with cloud and SaaS business growth offsetting slower payment business growth due to macroeconomic conditions [8]. - The acceleration in enterprise services revenue is attributed to increased penetration of small stores and enhanced monetization of SaaS offerings [8]. Catalysts - Key catalysts for growth include the normalization of game license approvals, expansion of overseas gaming, and increased advertising revenue from video accounts and large language models [9].