本文是由投资/产品专员而非分析师撰写的文章汇编。 它不构成研究报告，也不应被解释为研究报告，也不旨在提供 专业、投资或任何其他类型的建议或推荐。 CSIWM 个股点评 2026 年 2 月 4 日 腾讯控股 本文内容由 Kylie Kwok (郭凯欣) 提供 中信证券财富管理(香港) 产品及投资方案部 中国互联网行业 电话：(852) 2237 9250 / 电邮：wminvestmentsolutions@citics.com.hk 摘要 中信证券财富管理与中信里昂研究观点一致。根据中信里昂研究在 2026 年 2 月 3 日发布的题为《Games keep strong momentum》的报告，腾讯预计将继续交出稳健业绩，2025 年第四季度总收入和调整后 Ebit 同比大幅增长。 分析指出，网络游戏有望带来积极惊喜并实现同比增长，得益于常青游戏的稳健表现以及新爆款游戏《三角洲行动》 的推动。尽管宏观环境疲弱，广告业务预计仍将同比增长，主要受广告技术升级和交易增长的支撑。随着毛利率扩张， 利润预计将继续快于收入增长。分析指出，腾讯在 2026 年有望维持双位数的游戏增长和广告增长，并被视为全球拥 有最优 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tencent's Q3 2025 financial results show a revenue of 192.87 billion RMB, a 15% year-on-year increase, driven by growth in its core businesses: gaming, advertising, and fintech [5][6]. Financial Performance - Revenue reached 192.87 billion RMB, up 15% year-on-year and 5% quarter-on-quarter [6]. - Gross profit was 108.80 billion RMB, reflecting a 22% year-on-year increase [6]. - Non-IFRS operating profit stood at 72.57 billion RMB, an 18% increase compared to the previous year [6]. - Net profit attributable to equity holders was 63.13 billion RMB, a 19% year-on-year growth [6]. Business Segments - Gaming revenue saw a significant increase, with overseas game income soaring by 43% year-on-year [5]. - Advertising revenue growth was supported by improved ad loading rates and increased advertiser spending, with AI contributing as a key growth driver [5]. - Fintech and enterprise services revenue growth was driven by economic recovery and increased demand for cloud services [5]. Capital Expenditure - Tencent's capital expenditure for the quarter was 12.98 billion RMB, down 24% year-on-year and over 32% quarter-on-quarter [7]. - The company expects 2025 capital expenditure to be lower than previous guidance but still above 2024 levels, with estimates around 90 billion RMB, reflecting a 17% increase from 2024 [9][10]. AI Strategy - Tencent's current AI strategy focuses on achieving stronger model performance with lower deployment and inference costs, enhancing core business operations [4][16]. - The company is cautious in its AI infrastructure investments, learning from the high costs faced by competitors like Meta [16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings (00700.HK) with a target price range of HKD 613.18 to HKD 766.48 [1][5]. Core Insights - Tencent's Q2 2025 financial results exceeded expectations, with revenue of HKD 184.5 billion, a year-over-year increase of 15%, and adjusted operating profit of HKD 69.2 billion, up 18% year-over-year [1][9]. - The gaming sector is experiencing a strong recovery post-pandemic, with significant growth in both domestic and international markets [1][20]. - The advertising business also showed robust performance, with revenue reaching HKD 35.8 billion, a 20% year-over-year increase [1][30]. - Financial technology and enterprise services generated HKD 55.5 billion in revenue, reflecting a 10% year-over-year growth [1][32]. Summary by Sections 1. Q2 2025 Operating Performance - Revenue reached HKD 184.5 billion, exceeding Bloomberg consensus by 4%, with adjusted net profit of HKD 63.1 billion, also surpassing expectations by 2% [1][9]. 2. Business Segment Performance - **Gaming**: Revenue of HKD 59.2 billion, up 22% year-over-year, driven by strong performance in both domestic and international markets [1][20]. - **Advertising**: Revenue of HKD 35.8 billion, a 20% increase year-over-year, attributed to AI enhancements and the growing WeChat ecosystem [1][30]. - **Financial Technology and Enterprise Services**: Revenue of HKD 55.5 billion, reflecting a 10% year-over-year growth, with improvements in commercial payments and cloud services [1][32]. - **Social Networking**: Revenue of HKD 32.2 billion, a 6% year-over-year increase, showing some slowdown compared to other segments [1][17]. 3. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to HKD 744.1 billion, HKD 814.9 billion, and HKD 880.0 billion respectively, with corresponding net profits projected at HKD 223.4 billion, HKD 262.9 billion, and HKD 299.8 billion [1][6].

Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates potential positive factors for the A-share market in the next month, including domestic growth stabilization and possible negotiations on US-China tariffs, which may drive market rebounds [4][10] - The report suggests that the current tariff shock is a significant black swan event, but due to its occurrence at the beginning of a bull market, the impact on market valuation may have already been completed [11] - The report recommends a value-oriented investment strategy, focusing on sectors that can provide both offensive and defensive opportunities, such as banks, steel, construction, and consumer sectors [12] Stock Recommendations - The report lists the "Top Ten Gold Stocks" for May 2025, which includes companies from various sectors such as food and beverage, home appliances, banking, power utilities, computing, media, electronics, new consumption, and energy [3][13] - Specific stocks highlighted include: - Wanchen Group (300972.SZ) in the food and beverage sector, with a projected EPS growth from -0.46 in 2023 to 6.67 in 2025 [3][14] - Xing Shuai Er (002860.SZ) in home appliances, with a projected EPS growth from 0.56 in 2023 to 0.73 in 2025 [3][18] - Qingdao Bank (002948.SZ) in banking, with a projected EPS growth from 0.61 in 2023 to 1.04 in 2025 [3][21] - New Energy (601918.SH) in power utilities, with a projected EPS growth from 0.81 in 2023 to 1.06 in 2025 [3][25] - Zhaoyi Information (688258.SH) in computing, with a projected EPS growth from 0.46 in 2023 to 0.81 in 2025 [3][29] - Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) in media, with a projected EPS growth from 11.89 in 2023 to 23.67 in 2025 [3][34] - Lens Technology (300433.SZ) in electronics, with a projected EPS growth from 0.61 in 2023 to 1.39 in 2025 [3][38] - Blukoo (0325.HK) in new consumption, with a projected EPS growth from -1.38 in 2023 to 5.53 in 2025 [3][41] - Yanzhou Coal Mining (600188.SH) in energy, with a projected EPS growth from 2.01 in 2023 to 1.39 in 2025 [3][45] - Xianhe Co., Ltd. (603733.SH) in new consumption, with a projected EPS growth from 0.94 in 2023 to 2.54 in 2025 [3][46] Industry Insights - The food and beverage sector, represented by Wanchen Group, is expected to strengthen its competitive position with a significant increase in store numbers and a focus on the snack retail market [14][15] - The home appliance sector, represented by Xing Shuai Er, is experiencing stable growth in white goods, driven by national subsidy policies [18][19] - The banking sector, represented by Qingdao Bank, shows strong loan growth and improved asset quality, with a focus on manufacturing and green loans [21][22] - The power utility sector, represented by New Energy, is expected to benefit from rising coal demand and improved cost management [25][26] - The computing sector, represented by Zhaoyi Information, is positioned for growth with its unique low-code development platform, SnapDevelop, which has a strong market potential [29][30] - The media sector, represented by Tencent Holdings, is seeing robust growth in its gaming and advertising businesses, with significant contributions from its social media platforms [34][35] - The electronics sector, represented by Lens Technology, is benefiting from the growth of the smartphone market and strong partnerships with major clients [38][39] - The new consumption sector, represented by Blukoo, is leveraging its IP commercialization strategy to drive growth and expand its market presence [41][42] - The energy sector, represented by Yanzhou Coal Mining, is focused on increasing coal production and improving cost efficiency amid fluctuating coal prices [45][46]