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对“广场协议2.0”警惕缓解,日元要贬?
日经中文网· 2025-08-02 00:33
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent strengthening of the US dollar against major currencies, driven by changing perceptions of President Trump's stance on currency valuation and the impact of US-EU tariff negotiations [2][4][8]. Group 1: Dollar Strengthening Factors - The "Dollar Index," which measures the dollar's strength against major currencies, surged from 97.4-97.6 to 98.5-98.9, breaking through the 50-day moving average resistance [4]. - The market reacted to concerns that tariffs would negatively impact the European economy, leading to a sell-off of the euro and increased demand for the dollar [4]. - Trump's recent comments indicate a shift towards favoring a strong dollar, stating, "I am a fan of a strong dollar," which contrasts with previous views that suggested a preference for a weaker dollar to boost exports [6][8]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - The Japanese yen weakened against the dollar, reaching an exchange rate of 1 USD to 148.70 JPY, as market participants anticipated further dollar strength [4]. - Analysts suggest that if the perception of a strong US economy continues, the yen could depreciate to 150 JPY per USD, indicating a potential shift in currency dynamics [9]. - Technical analysis signals, such as the "Ichimoku Kinko Hyo," indicate bullish trends for the dollar, with key levels being monitored for potential breakout points [11].