Core Viewpoint - The property prices in Vanke Xingfu Yu, a prominent residential community in Guangzhou Knowledge City, have drastically declined from 2.7 million to 880,000, representing a nearly 70% drop, which has garnered significant attention online [1][7]. Group 1: Property Price Changes - The price of a 71 square meter two-bedroom unit in Vanke Xingfu Yu peaked at 2.7 million in April 2021, with a unit price of 37,000 per square meter [1]. - As of August 2025, the same unit's price has plummeted to 880,000, with a unit price of 12,000 per square meter, marking a decline of nearly 70% [1][7]. Group 2: Overall Market Conditions in Guangzhou - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, Guangzhou's new home prices fell by 4.1% year-on-year and 0.6% month-on-month in September 2025, while the decline in second-hand home prices was 6% year-on-year and 0.8% month-on-month [9][10]. - During the National Day holiday (October 1-8), Guangzhou's first-hand housing net signing reached 136,200 square meters, a year-on-year increase of 26.4%, with first-hand residential net signing up 28.7% [14][15]. - However, the Central Plains Research Development Department reported a significant year-on-year decline in first-hand housing subscriptions during the same holiday, despite a month-on-month increase [14][15]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The overall market sentiment in Guangzhou has shown signs of recovery, but buyer confidence remains cautious, with many still in a wait-and-see mode [15][16]. - The market is expected to stabilize, with prices entering a phase of rational fluctuation, influenced by supply and demand dynamics [15][16]. - Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, it is anticipated that transaction volumes will remain high, driven by developers' promotional activities and government support measures [18].

Core Viewpoint - The once-celebrated Vanke Happiness Yu has transformed from a symbol of wealth in the Guangzhou real estate market to a source of pain for some investors, reflecting the broader challenges faced in the property sector [1][14]. Market Performance - Vanke Happiness Yu was a unique symbol in the Guangzhou real estate market, with transaction volumes sometimes exceeding those of other properties for an entire year [3]. - The property experienced a significant price increase from just over 20,000 yuan per square meter in mid-2020 to over 30,000 yuan per square meter by mid-2021 [7]. - In 2021, a 71.51 square meter unit sold for 2.7 million yuan, with a price per square meter reaching 37,700 yuan [5][8]. Price Decline - Since 2021, similar two-bedroom units have seen a price drop of nearly 500,000 yuan annually, with current prices for the same unit type falling below 1 million yuan [8]. - A recent transaction for a 72 square meter unit was completed at 980,000 yuan, translating to approximately 13,000 yuan per square meter [8]. - The property has undergone nine price adjustments and had a low transaction rate of 0.4%, indicating a challenging sales environment [9]. Long-term Trends - The property was initially priced at around 8,500 yuan per square meter in 2014, with a staggering increase of 218% over six years, peaking at 37,000 yuan per square meter in 2021 [13]. - Current prices have plummeted to around 15,000 yuan per square meter, with some units even dropping to 13,000 yuan per square meter, reflecting a 63.7% decline from the peak price [13]. Market Conditions - The anticipated benefits from infrastructure and planning in the Knowledge City area have not materialized, leading to slow job growth and insufficient population influx [14]. - The cancellation of the 2改5 policy in 2023 has resulted in a surge of investment properties entering the market, with listing rates soaring to 9%, significantly above the industry safety line of 3% [14]. - Many owners are reluctant to sell at a loss, leading to a rise in short-term rental conversions, which have caused various community issues [14].