上金所铂金现货(Pt9995)
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铂钯金期货日报-20251203
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-12-03 10:07
Group 1: Report Summary - The platinum 2606 main contract fell 1.02% to 440.55 yuan/gram, and the palladium 2606 main contract rose 1.90% to 381.50 yuan/gram as of December 3 [2]. - The precious metal market may enter a technical consolidation phase after a rapid rise, and the correction may continue. Platinum prices may remain strong in the long - term due to factors like Fed rate - cut expectations, supply - demand deficit, "platinum replacing palladium", and long - term hydrogen economy demand. Palladium's supply is affected by South African power supply and Russian geopolitics in the short - to - medium term, while demand faces downward pressure from "platinum replacing palladium", with the market shifting from shortage to surplus, but rate - cut expectations may support prices [2]. - Resistance and support levels for London platinum spot are 1750 and 1500 US dollars per ounce respectively, and for London palladium spot are 1500 and 1350 US dollars per ounce [2]. Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - Platinum main contract closing price (daily, yuan/gram): 440.55, down 4.55; palladium main contract closing price (daily, yuan/gram): 381.50, up 7.10 [2]. - Platinum main contract open interest (daily, lots): 10664, up 171; palladium main contract open interest (daily, lots): 3089, down 117 [2]. Spot Market - Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum spot price (Pt9995): 427, up 1; Yangtze River palladium spot price: 374.50, up 6.50 [2]. - Platinum main contract basis (daily, yuan/gram): - 13.55, up 5.55; palladium main contract basis (daily, yuan/gram): - 7.00, down 0.60 [2]. Supply - Demand Situation - Estimated total platinum supply in 2025 (annual, tons): 220.40, down 0.80; estimated total palladium supply in 2025 (annual, tons): 293.00, down 5.00 [2]. - Estimated total platinum demand in 2025 (annual, tons): 261.60, up 25.60; estimated total palladium demand in 2025 (annual, tons): 287.00, down 27.00 [2]. Macro Data - US dollar index: 99.41, down 0.03; 10 - year US Treasury real yield (%): 1.85, up 0.06 [2]. - VIX volatility index: 17.24, up 0.89 [2]. Group 3: Industry News - Trump may choose long - term advisor Hassett as Fed chair, and Hassett hopes to get the position [2]. - US November ISM manufacturing PMI dropped 0.5 points to 48.2, below 50 for nine consecutive months, with new orders and backlogs contracting [2]. - Eurozone November CPI preliminary value rose 2.2% year - on - year (expected 2.1%), down 0.3% month - on - month; core CPI rose 2.4% year - on - year (expected 2.5%), down 0.4% month - on - month. Eurozone October unemployment rate was 6.4% (expected 6.3%) [2]. Group 4: Key Data to Watch - December 3, 21:15: US ADP private sector employment data [2]. - December 3, 21:30: US September import price index monthly rate [2]. - December 3, 23:00: US November ISM non - manufacturing PMI [2]. - US September PCE personal consumption expenditure data (time to be determined) [2].