铂钯金期货日报 2026/2/11 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 铂金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） | 551.15 | 10.35↑ 钯金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） | 439.10 | +7.25↑ | | | 主力合约持仓量:铂金(日,手) | 10387.00 | -277.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:钯金(日,手) | 3179.00 | +90.00↑ | | 现货市场 | 上金所铂金现货价（Pt9995） | 545.38 | -4.09↓ 长江钯金现货平均价 | 414.00 | -6.00↓ | | | 铂金主力合约基差(日,元/克) | -5.77 | -14.44↓ 钯金主力合约基差(日,元/克) | -25.10 | -13.25↓ | | 供需情况 | 铂金CFTC非商业多头持仓（周，张） 9966.00 | | -243.00↓ 钯金CFTC非商业多头持仓（周，张） | 3003.00 | -342.00↓ | | | 供应量:铂金:总计( ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 铂金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） -2.70↓ 钯金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） | 537.50 | | 429.05 | -4.60↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量:铂金(日,手) -277.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:钯金(日,手) | 10387.00 | | 3179.00 | +90.00↑ | | 现货市场 | 上金所铂金现货价（Pt9995） 5.48↑ 长江钯金现货平均价 | 549.47 | | 420.00 | -8.00↓ | | | 铂金主力合约基差(日,元/克) | 11.97 | 8.18↑ 钯金主力合约基差(日,元/克) | -9.05 | -3.40↓ | | 供需情况 | 铂金CFTC非商业多头持仓（周，张） 9966.00 | | -243.00↓ 钯金CFTC非商业多头持仓（周，张） 3003.00 | | -342.00↓ | | | 供应量:铂金:总计(年,吨):2025预计 -0.80↓ 供应量: ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the London platinum and palladium markets trended weaker in a volatile manner. The Fed maintained interest rates as expected, and future policies will depend on data. The expectation of a rate cut in March this year has weakened, but there is still an expectation of a rate cut in the second half of the year. The escalating geopolitical situation between the US and Iran may provide potential safe - haven support for platinum and palladium prices. [7] - The EU postponed the 2035 internal combustion engine ban and strengthened vehicle exhaust emission standards, increasing the demand for platinum in automotive catalysts by about 450,000 ounces this year. Although the global passenger car sales are slightly adjusted downwards, the increasing penetration of hybrid and hydrogen - fuel - cell commercial vehicles may improve the medium - to - long - term demand curve for platinum. The IEA's latest hydrogen outlook also confirms that the cumulative installed capacity of PEM electrolyzers is expected to exceed 17GW by 2030, providing potential upside for platinum prices. [7] - In the short term, there are many global macro - disturbance factors, and high market volatility may continue. In the medium - to - long term, the industrial logic of platinum and palladium will still dominate the trading rhythm. The uncertainty of South Africa's power supply and Russia's exports, along with the implementation of new vehicle emission policies, make platinum more resilient than palladium. The supply - demand pattern divergence may continue to drive the "platinum - strong, palladium - weak" market trend. [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - The London platinum and palladium markets trended weaker in a volatile manner this week. The Fed's interest - rate decision was in line with market expectations. The expectation of a rate cut in March has weakened, but there is still a possibility in the second half of the year. The US - Iran situation may support prices. [7] - The EU's new policies on vehicle emissions will increase the demand for platinum in automotive catalysts. The long - term demand for platinum may improve. The market will be volatile in the short term, and the "platinum - strong, palladium - weak" trend may continue in the medium - to - long term. The resistance and support levels for London platinum are $2,800/oz and $2,600/oz respectively, and for London palladium are $2,100/oz and $1,900/oz respectively. [7] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - On Friday, there was concentrated profit - taking in the precious - metals market, leading to a significant correction in the platinum and palladium markets. As of January 30, 2026, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's palladium futures contract 2606 rose 6.81% week - on - week to 464.05 yuan/gram, while the platinum futures contract 2606 fell 8.07% week - on - week to 630.55 yuan/gram. [8][12] - The net long positions of NYMEX platinum and palladium continued to diverge. As of January 20, 2026, the net long position of NYMEX platinum was 21,782 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 8.50%, and that of NYMEX palladium was - 2,762 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 4.43%. [13][17] - The basis of NYMEX platinum and palladium futures contracts weakened this week. [18] - NYMEX platinum inventory decreased, while palladium inventory increased. As of January 29, 2026, NYMEX platinum inventory was 655,182.10 ounces, a week - on - week decrease of 1.61%, and palladium inventory was 224,021.17 ounces, a week - on - week increase of 3.59%. [22][26] - The ratio of NYMEX platinum to COMEX gold has significantly increased compared to the beginning of 2025. [27] - Recently, the positive correlation between platinum prices and NYMEX platinum exchange inventory and US Treasury real yields has rebounded. [32] 3.3 Industry Supply - Demand Situation - As of December 2025, the import and export volumes of platinum and palladium both increased. [37] - The demand for platinum in automotive exhaust catalysts is marginally weakening. The total global demand for platinum and palladium is showing a mild slow - down trend. Due to geopolitical conflicts and power - supply disruptions, the global supply of platinum and palladium is decreasing. The price difference between London and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange for platinum and palladium has become stable. [43][52][56] 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - This week, the US dollar index continued to weaken, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield remained basically unchanged. [60]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - In the medium - to - long term, the industrial logic of platinum and palladium still dominates the trading rhythm. Due to the uncertainty of South Africa's power supply and Russia's exports, along with the implementation of new automobile emission policies, platinum is more resilient than palladium. The differentiation in the supply - demand pattern may continue to drive the "platinum - strong, palladium - weak" market trend. The London platinum price is expected to face resistance at $2800 per ounce and find support at $2600 per ounce, while the London palladium price may face resistance at $2100 per ounce and find support at $1900 per ounce [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the platinum main contract was 694.80 yuan/gram, a decrease of 1.20 yuan; the closing price of the palladium main contract was 504.00 yuan/gram, a decrease of 9.25 yuan. The main - contract holding volume of platinum was 10387.00 hands, a decrease of 277.00 hands; the main - contract holding volume of palladium was 3179.00 hands, an increase of 90.00 hands [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of platinum (Pt9995) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 670.45 yuan/gram, a decrease of 15.25 yuan; the average spot price of palladium in the Yangtze River was 460.00 yuan/gram, a decrease of 20.00 yuan. The basis of the platinum main contract was - 24.35 yuan/gram, a decrease of 14.05 yuan; the basis of the palladium main contract was - 44.00 yuan/gram, a decrease of 10.75 yuan [2] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - The non - commercial long positions of platinum in the CFTC (weekly) were 9966.00 contracts, a decrease of 243.00 contracts; the non - commercial long positions of palladium in the CFTC (weekly) were 3003.00 contracts, a decrease of 342.00 contracts. The total supply of platinum in 2025 is expected to be 220.40 tons, a decrease of 0.80 tons; the total supply of palladium in 2025 is expected to be 293.00 tons, a decrease of 5.00 tons. The total demand for platinum in 2025 is expected to be 261.60 tons, an increase of 25.60 tons; the total demand for palladium in 2025 is expected to be 287.00 tons, a decrease of 27.00 tons [2] 3.4 Macro Data - The US dollar index was 95.76, a decrease of 1.28; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 1.90%, unchanged. The VIX volatility index was 16.35, an increase of 0.20 [2] 3.5 Industry News - US President Trump said that the US is deploying troops to Iran and imposing a 25% tariff on countries trading with Iran, and has also imposed a new round of sanctions on entities and ships related to Iran's energy and shipping systems. Trump also said that the US expects to obtain "sovereignty" over the area where the US military base is located in Greenland. Multiple Democratic senators in the US will vote against the government appropriation bill, increasing the possibility of a partial government shutdown at the end of January. Trump may announce the new Fed chairperson as early as this week, and Rick Rieder of BlackRock has a 50% chance of being nominated. Trump has decided to raise the tariff rate on South Korean cars, timber, pharmaceutical products, etc. from 15% to 25% [2] 3.6 Market Performance - The main platinum and palladium contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange weakened in intraday trading, while the spot prices of platinum and palladium in London rebounded strongly due to the sharp rise of gold. The continuous strengthening of the RMB against the US dollar has increased the holding cost of RMB - denominated platinum and palladium, resulting in weaker recent price increases in the domestic platinum and palladium markets compared to overseas [2] 3.7 Demand Outlook - The EU's formal postponement of the 2035 internal combustion engine ban and the strengthening of automobile exhaust emission standards at the end of last year will increase the demand for platinum in automobile catalysts by about 450,000 ounces this year. Although the global passenger car sales are slightly adjusted downwards due to recession concerns, the increasing penetration rate of hybrid and hydrogen - fuel - cell commercial vehicles may improve the medium - to - long - term demand curve for platinum. The IEA's latest hydrogen outlook confirms that the cumulative installed capacity of PEM electrolyzers is expected to exceed 17GW by 2030, providing potential price support for platinum [2] 3.8 Key Events to Watch - On January 28 at 02:00, the US M2 money supply; on January 29 at 03:00, the Fed's interest - rate decision and monetary policy statement; on January 29 at 21:30, the US November trade balance (imports and exports); on January 30 at 21:30, the US PPI year - on - year (%) [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, macro shocks continued to provide safe - haven support for the precious metals market, leading to an upward - trending and volatile platinum - palladium market. The short - term risk - aversion sentiment is expected to remain high due to uncertainties such as the US tariff plan and Trump's stance on the Greenland acquisition. Supply is restricted by South Africa's power issues and Russia's export conditions, while demand for platinum may increase due to new EU emission standards and the development of new energy vehicles. In the long - term, the industrial logic of platinum and palladium will dominate trading, with a likely "platinum - strong, palladium - weak" market trend. The London platinum is expected to trade between $2500/oz and $2800/oz, and London palladium between $1800/oz and $2000/oz [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Macro factors: The US tariff plan on eight European countries was postponed, but Trump's attitude towards Greenland acquisition is uncertain, keeping short - term risk - aversion high. South Africa's power company maintains load - shedding, limiting smelter short - term production. The weakening of the South African rand may suppress marginal supply in US dollars. Russia has no new export guidance, and the "east - bound sales priority" policy and sanctions continue to affect the palladium trade [7]. - Demand: The EU's new emission standards will increase platinum demand in automotive catalysts by about 450,000 ounces this year. Although global passenger car sales are slightly down, the growth of hybrid and hydrogen - fuel - cell commercial vehicles may improve platinum's long - term demand. The IEA's hydrogen outlook shows potential growth in PEM electrolyzer installations, providing potential support for platinum [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Price trends: The platinum - palladium market rose this week, with platinum showing stronger price elasticity due to supply - demand tightness. As of January 23, 2026, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's platinum and palladium futures prices increased by 12.43% and 6.09% respectively [8][12]. - Net long positions: As of January 13, 2026, NYMEX platinum's net long positions decreased by 0.45% to 23,806 contracts, and palladium's net long positions decreased by 23.50% to - 2,890 contracts [17]. - Basis: The basis of NYMEX platinum and palladium futures contracts weakened this week [18]. - Inventory: As of January 22, 2026, NYMEX platinum inventory increased by 0.24% to 665,888.20 ounces, and palladium inventory increased by 2.54% to 216,266.31 ounces [25]. - Price ratios: The ratio of NYMEX platinum to COMEX gold has significantly increased compared to early 2025 [26]. - Correlation: The positive correlation between platinum prices, NYMEX platinum inventory, and the US dollar index has rebounded recently [31]. 3.3 Industry Supply and Demand - Trade: As of November 2025, platinum imports and exports decreased [36]. - Demand: The demand for platinum in automotive catalysts has weakened marginally, and the total global demand for platinum and palladium is slowly declining [41][46]. - Supply: Due to geopolitical conflicts and power issues, the global supply of platinum and palladium has decreased [52]. - Price difference: The price difference between domestic and international platinum and palladium markets has become more stable [57]. 3.4 Macro and Options - The US dollar index weakened this week under the impact of macro events [61].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US's tough actions against Venezuela have temporarily boosted market risk - aversion sentiment, leading to a strong performance in the precious metals market, with significant rebounds in the platinum and palladium futures contracts on both domestic and international exchanges [2]. - Platinum is expected to maintain strong resilience due to the Fed's easing expectations, the continuation of the supply - demand structural deficit, and the long - term expansion of demand expectations in the hydrogen energy economy [2]. - The demand for palladium is expected to weaken due to its over - concentration in the automotive catalyst field and the continuous popularization of new - energy vehicles. The palladium market is gradually shifting from a supply shortage to a surplus, but the bullish sentiment driven by interest - rate cut expectations may support its price, and its current low price may make it a cost - effective choice again [2]. - In the short term, the situation between the US and Venezuela increases the risk - aversion premium, attracting risk - aversion funds into the precious metals market and potentially supporting prices. In the medium to long term, the differentiation in supply - demand patterns may continue to drive the "platinum - strong, palladium - weak" market trend [2]. - For the running range, the upper resistance level for London platinum is $2400 per ounce, and the lower support level is $1900 per ounce; the upper resistance level for London palladium is $1800 per ounce, and the lower support level is $1500 per ounce [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the palladium main contract (daily, yuan/gram) is 471.90, up 23.15; the closing price of the platinum main contract (daily, yuan/gram) is 616.80, up 35.00 [2]. - The position of the platinum main contract (daily, lots) is 10387.00, down 277.00; the position of the palladium main contract (daily, lots) is 3179.00, up 90.00 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average spot price of Yangtze River palladium is 605.53, up 31.88; the spot price of platinum on the Shanghai Gold Exchange (Pt9995) is 419.00, up 6.00 [2]. - The basis of the palladium main contract (daily, yuan/gram) is - 11.27, down 3.12; the basis of the platinum main contract (daily, yuan/gram) is - 52.90, down 17.15 [2]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - The CFTC non - commercial long positions of palladium (weekly, contracts) are 9966.00, down 243.00; the CFTC non - commercial long positions of platinum (weekly, contracts) are 3003.00, down 342.00 [2]. - The total supply of palladium (annual, tons) in 2025 is expected to be 220.40, down 0.80; the total supply of platinum (annual, tons) in 2025 is expected to be 293.00, down 5.00 [2]. - The total demand for platinum (annual, tons) in 2025 is expected to be 261.60, up 25.60; the total demand for palladium (annual, tons) in 2025 is expected to be 287.00, down 27.00 [2]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - The US dollar index is 98.46, up 0.21; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 1.94%, up 0.01 [2]. - The VIX volatility index is 14.51, down 0.44 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Venezuelan President Maduro made his first appearance in the US Southern District of New York Federal Court, pleading "not guilty" to the US "accusations", and was required by the US judge to appear in court again on March 17 [2]. - The US ISM manufacturing index in December 2025 slightly decreased from 48.2 to 47.9, remaining below 50 for 10 consecutive months and reaching a new low since October 2024. New orders have contracted for four consecutive months, export orders are still weak, and employment has declined for 11 consecutive months [2]. - Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said that if the economic and price trends meet the central bank's expectations, the Bank of Japan will continue to raise interest rates. He also said that the Japanese economy achieved a moderate recovery last year despite the impact of US tariff hikes on corporate profits [2]. - Former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen warned that a "fiscal dominance" scenario is brewing, where a large debt scale may force the central bank to keep interest rates low to reduce debt - servicing costs rather than focus on curbing inflation. The US Congressional Budget Office estimates that the US deficit will reach $1.9 trillion this year, and the debt - to - GDP ratio will rise to 100% and continue to climb [2]. 3.6 Key Points to Watch - The US ISM non - manufacturing PMI on January 6 at 23:00 [2] - The US ADP employment report on January 7 at 21:15 [2] - The US December non - farm payrolls report on January 9 at 21:30 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The US's tough actions against Venezuela have briefly increased market risk aversion, leading to a strong performance in the precious metals market today, with significant rebounds in the platinum and palladium futures contracts on both domestic and international exchanges [2]. - Fundamentally, platinum may continue to see price support in the medium to long - term due to expectations of Fed easing, a continued structural supply - demand deficit, and expanding long - term demand expectations in the hydrogen economy. Palladium's demand outlook is weakening due to over - concentration in the automotive catalyst sector and the continuous spread of new energy vehicles. The palladium market is shifting from supply shortage to surplus, but the bullish sentiment driven by interest rate cut expectations may provide some price support, and its low current price may make it a cost - effective option again [2]. - In the short term, the Venezuela - US situation increases the risk premium and attracts risk - averse funds to the precious metals market, potentially supporting prices. In the long term, the divergence in supply - demand patterns may continue to drive the "platinum strong, palladium weak" market trend. The upper resistance for London platinum is at $2400 per ounce, and the lower support is at $1900 per ounce; for London palladium, the upper resistance is at $1800 per ounce, and the lower support is at $1500 per ounce [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - Palladium's main contract closing price was 583.95 yuan/gram, up 35.55 yuan; platinum's main contract closing price was 452.85 yuan/gram, up 36.95 yuan. The main contract holding volume of platinum was 10387.00 hands, down 277.00 hands; the main contract holding volume of palladium was 3179.00 hands, up 90.00 hands [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average spot price of Yangtze River palladium was 573.65 yuan, up 62.15 yuan; the spot price of platinum (Pt9995) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 413.00 yuan, up 5.00 yuan. The basis of the palladium main contract was - 10.30 yuan/gram, up 26.60 yuan; the basis of the platinum main contract was - 39.85 yuan/gram, down 31.95 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - In 2025, the total supply of palladium was expected to be 220.40 tons, down 0.80 tons; the total supply of platinum was expected to be 293.00 tons, down 5.00 tons. The total demand for platinum was expected to be 261.60 tons, up 25.60 tons; the total demand for palladium was expected to be 287.00 tons, down 27.00 tons. The non - commercial long positions of palladium in CFTC were 9966.00 contracts, down 243.00 contracts; the non - commercial long positions of platinum in CFTC were 3003.00 contracts, down 342.00 contracts [2]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - The US dollar index was 98.03, up 0.12; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 1.91%, unchanged. The VIX volatility index was 13.60, up 0.13 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Venezuela's Constitutional Court ruled that the executive vice - president should act as "acting president". US former vice - president Harris opposed the US using military means to overthrow Venezuela's President Maduro. Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson thought there might be a moderate further interest rate cut later in 2026, depending on the economic outlook. According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in January was 17.2%, and the probability of keeping the rate unchanged was 82.8%. By March, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut was 44.1%, the probability of keeping the rate unchanged was 48.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut was 7.0% [2]. 3.6 Key Events to Watch - On 01 - 06 at 23:00, the US ISM non - manufacturing PMI; on 01 - 07 at 21:15, the US ADP employment report; on 01 - 09 at 21:30, the US December non - farm payrolls report [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The sharp correction in gold and silver prices this week has weakened the overall sentiment in the precious metals market. The main platinum and palladium contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange have turned from strong to weak, with two consecutive daily limit - down moves. This correction is a phased cooling of the over - heated previous market. In the short term, the platinum and palladium markets may enter a high - level consolidation phase. However, the accumulated squeeze - out pressure is difficult to resolve quickly, and the tight spot market may support price rebounds. [7] - In the long - term, platinum may see price support from the Fed's easing expectations, the continuation of the supply - demand structural deficit, and the expansion of long - term demand expectations in the hydrogen economy. Palladium's demand is expected to weaken due to over - concentration in the automotive catalyst field and the continuous popularization of new energy vehicles, and its market is shifting from supply shortage to surplus. But the bullish sentiment driven by interest - rate cut expectations may support the price, and its current low price may make it a cost - effective choice again. [7] - For price ranges, the resistance level for London platinum is $2300 per ounce, and the support level is $1800 per ounce. For London palladium, the resistance level is $1700 per ounce, and the support level is $1400 per ounce. [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - The sharp correction in gold and silver prices has weakened the sentiment in the precious metals market. The main platinum and palladium contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange have turned weak, and this correction is a cooling of the over - heated market. In the short term, the market may consolidate, but the tight spot market may lead to price rebounds. [7] - Platinum has long - term price support factors, while palladium's demand is expected to weaken, but interest - rate cut expectations may support its price. [7] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - The sentiment in the precious metals market has weakened, and platinum and palladium prices have significantly corrected from their highs this week. As of December 31, 2025, the main palladium contract 2606 on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was at 425.20 yuan per gram, down 17.54% week - on - week, and the main platinum contract 2606 was at 527.25 yuan per gram, down 25.24% week - on - week. [8][12] - As of December 16, 2025, the net long positions of NYMEX platinum and palladium showed a large divergence. The net long position of NYMEX platinum was 28,564 contracts, up 12.82% month - on - month, and that of NYMEX palladium was - 2340 contracts, down 36.05% month - on - month. [13][17] - The basis of the main NYMEX platinum and palladium contracts has weakened this week. [18] - As of December 24, 2025, NYMEX platinum inventory was 645,466.92 ounces, up 3.32% month - on - month, and NYMEX palladium inventory was 195,833.87 ounces, up 4.81% month - on - month. [26] - The price ratio of NYMEX platinum to gold has rebounded recently. [27] - The rolling correlation coefficient between platinum and gold prices has increased. [31] - The positive correlation between platinum prices and NYMEX platinum inventory and the US dollar index has weakened marginally. [35] 3.3 Industry Supply - Demand Situation - As of November 2025, both the import and export volumes of platinum decreased. [39] - The demand for platinum in automotive exhaust catalysts has weakened marginally. [45] - The total global demand for platinum and palladium is showing a moderate downward trend. [50] - The global supply of platinum and palladium has declined. [55] 3.4 Macroeconomic and Options - As of Wednesday, the US dollar index and the 10 - year US Treasury yield have risen slightly. [58]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sharp correction in the external silver price has weakened the sentiment in the precious metals market, and the main platinum and palladium contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closed at the daily limit again today. The current pullback is a phased cooling of the previous "overheated" market, and the platinum and palladium markets may enter a high-level volatile consolidation phase in the short term. However, the accumulated squeeze pressure is difficult to resolve quickly, and the tight spot situation may still support the prices to have pulse-like rebounds. In the long term, platinum prices may be supported by the Fed's easing expectations, the continuation of the supply-demand structural deficit, and the expansion of medium- and long-term demand expectations in the hydrogen economy. The demand for palladium in the automotive catalyst field is expected to weaken due to over - concentration and the popularization of new energy vehicles, and its supply - demand pattern is expected to be loose. But the bullish sentiment driven by interest - rate cut expectations may support the price, and the current low price of palladium may make it a cost - advantageous choice again. Also, the recent parabolic rise in platinum and palladium prices may increase the risk of a high - level decline, and short - term technical correction pressure should be guarded against [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main platinum contract was 589.85 yuan/gram, a decrease of 88.10 yuan; the closing price of the main palladium contract was 447.45 yuan/gram, a decrease of 66.85 yuan. The trading volume of the main platinum contract was 10387.00 lots, a decrease of 277.00 lots; the trading volume of the main palladium contract was 3179.00 lots, an increase of 90.00 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of platinum (Pt9995) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 565.12 yuan/gram, a decrease of 72.03 yuan; the average spot price of palladium in the Yangtze River was 408.00 yuan/gram, a decrease of 80.00 yuan. The basis of the main platinum contract was - 24.73 yuan/gram, an increase of 16.07 yuan; the basis of the main palladium contract was - 39.45 yuan/gram, a decrease of 13.15 yuan [2] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - The total annual supply of platinum in 2025 is expected to be 220.40 tons, a decrease of 0.80 tons; the total annual supply of palladium in 2025 is expected to be 293.00 tons, a decrease of 5.00 tons. The total annual demand for platinum in 2025 is expected to be 261.60 tons, an increase of 25.60 tons; the total annual demand for palladium in 2025 is expected to be 287.00 tons, a decrease of 27.00 tons [2] 3.4 Macro Data - The U.S. dollar index was 98.03, an increase of 0.12; the 10 - year U.S. Treasury real yield was 1.91%, unchanged; the VIX volatility index was 13.60, an increase of 0.13 [2] 3.5 Industry News - U.S. President Trump met with Ukrainian President Zelensky, with both saying the talks "made great progress" but without major announcements. The Bank of Japan's December policy meeting minutes showed that many members thought Japan's real interest rates were still extremely low, hinting at future interest - rate hikes. According to the CME "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January next year is 16.1%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 83.9%. By March next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 45.4%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 47.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 6.9% [2] 3.6 Key Points to Watch - The U.S. FHFA house price index year - on - year (%) on December 30, 2025, 22:00, and the U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI on January 1, 2026, 21:45 [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The parabolic rise in the prices of platinum and palladium recently may intensify the risk of a high - level decline. Short - term technical correction pressure should be guarded against [2] - In the short term, the platinum and palladium market may enter a high - level volatile consolidation phase, but the previous squeeze - out pressure is difficult to resolve quickly, and the tight spot situation may support the price for a pulse - like rebound [2] - In the long term, the price of platinum may be supported by the Fed's easing expectations, the continued supply - demand structural deficit, and the expansion of medium - to - long - term demand expectations in the hydrogen energy economy. The demand for palladium is expected to weaken due to over - concentration in the automotive catalyst field and the continuous popularization of new energy vehicles, but the bullish sentiment driven by the interest rate cut expectation may give some support to the price [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market - The closing price of the platinum main contract (daily, yuan/gram) decreased by 70.45 to 634.35, and the closing price of the palladium main contract (daily, yuan/gram) decreased by 54.90 to 494.10 [2] - The main contract position of platinum (daily, lots) decreased by 277 to 10387, and that of palladium (daily, lots) increased by 90 to 3179 [2] 3.2. Spot Market - The spot price of platinum (Pt9995) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange decreased by 25 to 637.15, and the average spot price of Yangtze River palladium increased by 60 to 488 [2] - The basis of the platinum main contract (daily, yuan/gram) increased by 45.45 to 2.80, and the basis of the palladium main contract (daily, yuan/gram) increased by 114.90 to - 6.10 [2] - The non - commercial long positions of platinum in CFTC (weekly, contracts) decreased by 243 to 9966, and those of palladium (weekly, contracts) decreased by 342 [2] 3.3. Supply and Demand Situation - The total supply of platinum (annual, tons) is expected to decrease by 0.80 in 2025, and the total supply of palladium (annual, tons) is expected to decrease by 5 to 220.40 in 2025 [2] - The total demand for platinum (annual, tons) is expected to increase by 25.60 in 2025, and the total demand for palladium (annual, tons) is expected to decrease by 27 to 261.60 in 2025 [2] 3.4. Macroeconomic Data - The US dollar index increased by 0.12 to 98.03, and the real yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond remained unchanged at 1.91% [2] - The VIX volatility index increased by 0.13 to 13.60 [2] 3.5. Industry News - The probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in January next year is 18.8%, and the probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged is 81.2%. By March next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point interest rate cut is 46.9%, the probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged is 44.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point interest rate cut is 8.5% [2] - Affected by the long - position profit - taking, the main contracts of platinum and palladium on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange tumbled in the afternoon and hit the daily limit [2] 3.6. Key Points to Follow - On December 30, 2025, at 22:00, the year - on - year US FHFA housing price index; on January 1, 2026, at 21:45, the US Markit manufacturing PMI [2]