瑞达期货研究院 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业供需情况 4、宏观及期权 「 周度要点小结」 「2026.01. 30」 铂钯金市场周报 作者： 研究员 廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 目录 ◆ 本周观点：本周伦敦铂钯市场震荡走弱。宏观层面，美联储如期维持利率按兵不动，未来将延续 数据依赖路径，符合市场预期。从市场反应来看，利率期货显示今年3月降息预期减弱，但下半年 逐步重启降息预期仍存。美伊地缘局势升温，或为铂钯价提供潜在避险支撑。基本面来看，欧盟 去年底正式推迟2035年内燃机禁令并同步强化汽车尾气排放标准，带来更高的铂金装载强度，汽 车催化剂对铂金的替代需求预计今年将新增约45万盎司。虽然全球乘用车销量在衰退担忧下温和 下调，但混合动力与氢燃料电池商用车的渗透率上升，或改善铂金的中长期需求曲线。IEA 最新 氢能展望亦确认至2030年 PEM 电解槽装机量累计有望突破17GW，为铂价提供潜在弹性。往后看， 短期内全球宏观扰动因素较多，市场高波动或延续，关注后续美伊地缘局势动态演变以及美联储 新主席的政策预期动向。中长期而言， ...

铂钯金期货日报 2026/1/28 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 铂金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） -1.20↓ 钯金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） 504.00 | 694.80 | -9.25↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量:铂金(日,手) -277.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:钯金(日,手) 3179.00 | 10387.00 | +90.00↑ | | 现货市场 | 上金所铂金现货价（Pt9995） -15.25↓ 长江钯金现货平均价 460.00 | 670.45 | -20.00↓ | | | 铂金主力合约基差(日,元/克) -14.05↓ 钯金主力合约基差(日,元/克) -44.00 | -24.35 | -10.75↓ | | 供需情况 | 铂金CFTC非商业多头持仓（周，张） 9966.00 -243.00↓ 钯金CFTC非商业多头持仓（周，张） 3003.00 | | -342.00↓ | | | 供应量:铂金:总计(年,吨):2025预计 -0.80↓ 供应量:钯金:总计(年,吨) ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.01. 23」 铂钯金市场周报 作者： 「 周度要点小结」 ◆ 本周观点：本周宏观冲击继续为贵金属市场提供避险支撑，铂钯市场震荡上行。前期美国拟对欧 洲八国加征15%关税，但因协议框架的初步达成而暂缓，但后续特朗普对于收购格陵兰岛事件的态 度仍存在变数，短期内避险情绪料将维持高位。南非电力公司公布的最新调度显示，当前仍维持 阶段性负荷削减，白昼低负荷窗口虽有缓解，但夜间高峰的断电风险依旧，这限制了冶炼厂短期 开工率提升。美元兑南非兰特连续第四日走升，部分对冲了本币成本压力，但若兰特贬值趋势延 续，将压制美元计价的边际供给。俄罗斯方面并无新的出口指引，此前矿商表态 2026 年将维持 "东向销售优先"政策，且仍受运输与结算制裁掣肘，使钯金贸易链条的潜在扰动持续存在。欧 盟去年底正式推迟 2035 内燃机禁令并同步强化 Euro 7 排放标准，带来更高的铂金装载强度， 汽车催化剂对铂金的替代需求预计今年将新增约 45 万盎司。虽然全球乘用车销量在衰退担忧下 温和下调，但混合动力与氢燃料电池商用车的渗透率上升，或改善铂金的中长期需求曲线。IEA 最新氢能展望亦确认至 2030 年 PEM ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US's tough actions against Venezuela have temporarily boosted market risk - aversion sentiment, leading to a strong performance in the precious metals market, with significant rebounds in the platinum and palladium futures contracts on both domestic and international exchanges [2]. - Platinum is expected to maintain strong resilience due to the Fed's easing expectations, the continuation of the supply - demand structural deficit, and the long - term expansion of demand expectations in the hydrogen energy economy [2]. - The demand for palladium is expected to weaken due to its over - concentration in the automotive catalyst field and the continuous popularization of new - energy vehicles. The palladium market is gradually shifting from a supply shortage to a surplus, but the bullish sentiment driven by interest - rate cut expectations may support its price, and its current low price may make it a cost - effective choice again [2]. - In the short term, the situation between the US and Venezuela increases the risk - aversion premium, attracting risk - aversion funds into the precious metals market and potentially supporting prices. In the medium to long term, the differentiation in supply - demand patterns may continue to drive the "platinum - strong, palladium - weak" market trend [2]. - For the running range, the upper resistance level for London platinum is $2400 per ounce, and the lower support level is $1900 per ounce; the upper resistance level for London palladium is $1800 per ounce, and the lower support level is $1500 per ounce [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the palladium main contract (daily, yuan/gram) is 471.90, up 23.15; the closing price of the platinum main contract (daily, yuan/gram) is 616.80, up 35.00 [2]. - The position of the platinum main contract (daily, lots) is 10387.00, down 277.00; the position of the palladium main contract (daily, lots) is 3179.00, up 90.00 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average spot price of Yangtze River palladium is 605.53, up 31.88; the spot price of platinum on the Shanghai Gold Exchange (Pt9995) is 419.00, up 6.00 [2]. - The basis of the palladium main contract (daily, yuan/gram) is - 11.27, down 3.12; the basis of the platinum main contract (daily, yuan/gram) is - 52.90, down 17.15 [2]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - The CFTC non - commercial long positions of palladium (weekly, contracts) are 9966.00, down 243.00; the CFTC non - commercial long positions of platinum (weekly, contracts) are 3003.00, down 342.00 [2]. - The total supply of palladium (annual, tons) in 2025 is expected to be 220.40, down 0.80; the total supply of platinum (annual, tons) in 2025 is expected to be 293.00, down 5.00 [2]. - The total demand for platinum (annual, tons) in 2025 is expected to be 261.60, up 25.60; the total demand for palladium (annual, tons) in 2025 is expected to be 287.00, down 27.00 [2]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - The US dollar index is 98.46, up 0.21; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 1.94%, up 0.01 [2]. - The VIX volatility index is 14.51, down 0.44 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Venezuelan President Maduro made his first appearance in the US Southern District of New York Federal Court, pleading "not guilty" to the US "accusations", and was required by the US judge to appear in court again on March 17 [2]. - The US ISM manufacturing index in December 2025 slightly decreased from 48.2 to 47.9, remaining below 50 for 10 consecutive months and reaching a new low since October 2024. New orders have contracted for four consecutive months, export orders are still weak, and employment has declined for 11 consecutive months [2]. - Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said that if the economic and price trends meet the central bank's expectations, the Bank of Japan will continue to raise interest rates. He also said that the Japanese economy achieved a moderate recovery last year despite the impact of US tariff hikes on corporate profits [2]. - Former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen warned that a "fiscal dominance" scenario is brewing, where a large debt scale may force the central bank to keep interest rates low to reduce debt - servicing costs rather than focus on curbing inflation. The US Congressional Budget Office estimates that the US deficit will reach $1.9 trillion this year, and the debt - to - GDP ratio will rise to 100% and continue to climb [2]. 3.6 Key Points to Watch - The US ISM non - manufacturing PMI on January 6 at 23:00 [2] - The US ADP employment report on January 7 at 21:15 [2] - The US December non - farm payrolls report on January 9 at 21:30 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The US's tough actions against Venezuela have briefly increased market risk aversion, leading to a strong performance in the precious metals market today, with significant rebounds in the platinum and palladium futures contracts on both domestic and international exchanges [2]. - Fundamentally, platinum may continue to see price support in the medium to long - term due to expectations of Fed easing, a continued structural supply - demand deficit, and expanding long - term demand expectations in the hydrogen economy. Palladium's demand outlook is weakening due to over - concentration in the automotive catalyst sector and the continuous spread of new energy vehicles. The palladium market is shifting from supply shortage to surplus, but the bullish sentiment driven by interest rate cut expectations may provide some price support, and its low current price may make it a cost - effective option again [2]. - In the short term, the Venezuela - US situation increases the risk premium and attracts risk - averse funds to the precious metals market, potentially supporting prices. In the long term, the divergence in supply - demand patterns may continue to drive the "platinum strong, palladium weak" market trend. The upper resistance for London platinum is at $2400 per ounce, and the lower support is at $1900 per ounce; for London palladium, the upper resistance is at $1800 per ounce, and the lower support is at $1500 per ounce [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - Palladium's main contract closing price was 583.95 yuan/gram, up 35.55 yuan; platinum's main contract closing price was 452.85 yuan/gram, up 36.95 yuan. The main contract holding volume of platinum was 10387.00 hands, down 277.00 hands; the main contract holding volume of palladium was 3179.00 hands, up 90.00 hands [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average spot price of Yangtze River palladium was 573.65 yuan, up 62.15 yuan; the spot price of platinum (Pt9995) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 413.00 yuan, up 5.00 yuan. The basis of the palladium main contract was - 10.30 yuan/gram, up 26.60 yuan; the basis of the platinum main contract was - 39.85 yuan/gram, down 31.95 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - In 2025, the total supply of palladium was expected to be 220.40 tons, down 0.80 tons; the total supply of platinum was expected to be 293.00 tons, down 5.00 tons. The total demand for platinum was expected to be 261.60 tons, up 25.60 tons; the total demand for palladium was expected to be 287.00 tons, down 27.00 tons. The non - commercial long positions of palladium in CFTC were 9966.00 contracts, down 243.00 contracts; the non - commercial long positions of platinum in CFTC were 3003.00 contracts, down 342.00 contracts [2]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - The US dollar index was 98.03, up 0.12; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 1.91%, unchanged. The VIX volatility index was 13.60, up 0.13 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Venezuela's Constitutional Court ruled that the executive vice - president should act as "acting president". US former vice - president Harris opposed the US using military means to overthrow Venezuela's President Maduro. Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson thought there might be a moderate further interest rate cut later in 2026, depending on the economic outlook. According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in January was 17.2%, and the probability of keeping the rate unchanged was 82.8%. By March, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut was 44.1%, the probability of keeping the rate unchanged was 48.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut was 7.0% [2]. 3.6 Key Events to Watch - On 01 - 06 at 23:00, the US ISM non - manufacturing PMI; on 01 - 07 at 21:15, the US ADP employment report; on 01 - 09 at 21:30, the US December non - farm payrolls report [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The sharp correction in gold and silver prices this week has weakened the overall sentiment in the precious metals market. The main platinum and palladium contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange have turned from strong to weak, with two consecutive daily limit - down moves. This correction is a phased cooling of the over - heated previous market. In the short term, the platinum and palladium markets may enter a high - level consolidation phase. However, the accumulated squeeze - out pressure is difficult to resolve quickly, and the tight spot market may support price rebounds. [7] - In the long - term, platinum may see price support from the Fed's easing expectations, the continuation of the supply - demand structural deficit, and the expansion of long - term demand expectations in the hydrogen economy. Palladium's demand is expected to weaken due to over - concentration in the automotive catalyst field and the continuous popularization of new energy vehicles, and its market is shifting from supply shortage to surplus. But the bullish sentiment driven by interest - rate cut expectations may support the price, and its current low price may make it a cost - effective choice again. [7] - For price ranges, the resistance level for London platinum is $2300 per ounce, and the support level is $1800 per ounce. For London palladium, the resistance level is $1700 per ounce, and the support level is $1400 per ounce. [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - The sharp correction in gold and silver prices has weakened the sentiment in the precious metals market. The main platinum and palladium contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange have turned weak, and this correction is a cooling of the over - heated market. In the short term, the market may consolidate, but the tight spot market may lead to price rebounds. [7] - Platinum has long - term price support factors, while palladium's demand is expected to weaken, but interest - rate cut expectations may support its price. [7] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - The sentiment in the precious metals market has weakened, and platinum and palladium prices have significantly corrected from their highs this week. As of December 31, 2025, the main palladium contract 2606 on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was at 425.20 yuan per gram, down 17.54% week - on - week, and the main platinum contract 2606 was at 527.25 yuan per gram, down 25.24% week - on - week. [8][12] - As of December 16, 2025, the net long positions of NYMEX platinum and palladium showed a large divergence. The net long position of NYMEX platinum was 28,564 contracts, up 12.82% month - on - month, and that of NYMEX palladium was - 2340 contracts, down 36.05% month - on - month. [13][17] - The basis of the main NYMEX platinum and palladium contracts has weakened this week. [18] - As of December 24, 2025, NYMEX platinum inventory was 645,466.92 ounces, up 3.32% month - on - month, and NYMEX palladium inventory was 195,833.87 ounces, up 4.81% month - on - month. [26] - The price ratio of NYMEX platinum to gold has rebounded recently. [27] - The rolling correlation coefficient between platinum and gold prices has increased. [31] - The positive correlation between platinum prices and NYMEX platinum inventory and the US dollar index has weakened marginally. [35] 3.3 Industry Supply - Demand Situation - As of November 2025, both the import and export volumes of platinum decreased. [39] - The demand for platinum in automotive exhaust catalysts has weakened marginally. [45] - The total global demand for platinum and palladium is showing a moderate downward trend. [50] - The global supply of platinum and palladium has declined. [55] 3.4 Macroeconomic and Options - As of Wednesday, the US dollar index and the 10 - year US Treasury yield have risen slightly. [58]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sharp correction in the external silver price has weakened the sentiment in the precious metals market, and the main platinum and palladium contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closed at the daily limit again today. The current pullback is a phased cooling of the previous "overheated" market, and the platinum and palladium markets may enter a high-level volatile consolidation phase in the short term. However, the accumulated squeeze pressure is difficult to resolve quickly, and the tight spot situation may still support the prices to have pulse-like rebounds. In the long term, platinum prices may be supported by the Fed's easing expectations, the continuation of the supply-demand structural deficit, and the expansion of medium- and long-term demand expectations in the hydrogen economy. The demand for palladium in the automotive catalyst field is expected to weaken due to over - concentration and the popularization of new energy vehicles, and its supply - demand pattern is expected to be loose. But the bullish sentiment driven by interest - rate cut expectations may support the price, and the current low price of palladium may make it a cost - advantageous choice again. Also, the recent parabolic rise in platinum and palladium prices may increase the risk of a high - level decline, and short - term technical correction pressure should be guarded against [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main platinum contract was 589.85 yuan/gram, a decrease of 88.10 yuan; the closing price of the main palladium contract was 447.45 yuan/gram, a decrease of 66.85 yuan. The trading volume of the main platinum contract was 10387.00 lots, a decrease of 277.00 lots; the trading volume of the main palladium contract was 3179.00 lots, an increase of 90.00 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of platinum (Pt9995) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 565.12 yuan/gram, a decrease of 72.03 yuan; the average spot price of palladium in the Yangtze River was 408.00 yuan/gram, a decrease of 80.00 yuan. The basis of the main platinum contract was - 24.73 yuan/gram, an increase of 16.07 yuan; the basis of the main palladium contract was - 39.45 yuan/gram, a decrease of 13.15 yuan [2] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - The total annual supply of platinum in 2025 is expected to be 220.40 tons, a decrease of 0.80 tons; the total annual supply of palladium in 2025 is expected to be 293.00 tons, a decrease of 5.00 tons. The total annual demand for platinum in 2025 is expected to be 261.60 tons, an increase of 25.60 tons; the total annual demand for palladium in 2025 is expected to be 287.00 tons, a decrease of 27.00 tons [2] 3.4 Macro Data - The U.S. dollar index was 98.03, an increase of 0.12; the 10 - year U.S. Treasury real yield was 1.91%, unchanged; the VIX volatility index was 13.60, an increase of 0.13 [2] 3.5 Industry News - U.S. President Trump met with Ukrainian President Zelensky, with both saying the talks "made great progress" but without major announcements. The Bank of Japan's December policy meeting minutes showed that many members thought Japan's real interest rates were still extremely low, hinting at future interest - rate hikes. According to the CME "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January next year is 16.1%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 83.9%. By March next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 45.4%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 47.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 6.9% [2] 3.6 Key Points to Watch - The U.S. FHFA house price index year - on - year (%) on December 30, 2025, 22:00, and the U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI on January 1, 2026, 21:45 [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The parabolic rise in the prices of platinum and palladium recently may intensify the risk of a high - level decline. Short - term technical correction pressure should be guarded against [2] - In the short term, the platinum and palladium market may enter a high - level volatile consolidation phase, but the previous squeeze - out pressure is difficult to resolve quickly, and the tight spot situation may support the price for a pulse - like rebound [2] - In the long term, the price of platinum may be supported by the Fed's easing expectations, the continued supply - demand structural deficit, and the expansion of medium - to - long - term demand expectations in the hydrogen energy economy. The demand for palladium is expected to weaken due to over - concentration in the automotive catalyst field and the continuous popularization of new energy vehicles, but the bullish sentiment driven by the interest rate cut expectation may give some support to the price [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market - The closing price of the platinum main contract (daily, yuan/gram) decreased by 70.45 to 634.35, and the closing price of the palladium main contract (daily, yuan/gram) decreased by 54.90 to 494.10 [2] - The main contract position of platinum (daily, lots) decreased by 277 to 10387, and that of palladium (daily, lots) increased by 90 to 3179 [2] 3.2. Spot Market - The spot price of platinum (Pt9995) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange decreased by 25 to 637.15, and the average spot price of Yangtze River palladium increased by 60 to 488 [2] - The basis of the platinum main contract (daily, yuan/gram) increased by 45.45 to 2.80, and the basis of the palladium main contract (daily, yuan/gram) increased by 114.90 to - 6.10 [2] - The non - commercial long positions of platinum in CFTC (weekly, contracts) decreased by 243 to 9966, and those of palladium (weekly, contracts) decreased by 342 [2] 3.3. Supply and Demand Situation - The total supply of platinum (annual, tons) is expected to decrease by 0.80 in 2025, and the total supply of palladium (annual, tons) is expected to decrease by 5 to 220.40 in 2025 [2] - The total demand for platinum (annual, tons) is expected to increase by 25.60 in 2025, and the total demand for palladium (annual, tons) is expected to decrease by 27 to 261.60 in 2025 [2] 3.4. Macroeconomic Data - The US dollar index increased by 0.12 to 98.03, and the real yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond remained unchanged at 1.91% [2] - The VIX volatility index increased by 0.13 to 13.60 [2] 3.5. Industry News - The probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in January next year is 18.8%, and the probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged is 81.2%. By March next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point interest rate cut is 46.9%, the probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged is 44.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point interest rate cut is 8.5% [2] - Affected by the long - position profit - taking, the main contracts of platinum and palladium on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange tumbled in the afternoon and hit the daily limit [2] 3.6. Key Points to Follow - On December 30, 2025, at 22:00, the year - on - year US FHFA housing price index; on January 1, 2026, at 21:45, the US Markit manufacturing PMI [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - Platinum prices may be supported in the medium to long term by expectations of Fed easing, a continued structural deficit in supply and demand, and expanding long - term demand expectations in the hydrogen economy. Palladium's demand outlook is weakening due to over - concentration in the automotive catalyst field and the spread of new energy vehicles, but the bullish sentiment driven by interest rate cut expectations may support prices. The recent parabolic rise in platinum and palladium prices may increase the risk of a high - level decline, and short - term technical correction pressure should be guarded against [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the platinum main contract is 657.65 yuan/gram, up 43.00 yuan; the closing price of the palladium main contract is 578.45 yuan/gram, up 37.80 yuan. The main contract position of platinum is 10387.00 lots, down 277.00 lots; the main contract position of palladium is 3179.00 lots, up 90.00 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot price of platinum (Pt9995) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is 606.99 yuan/gram, up 45.38 yuan; the spot price of palladium in the Yangtze River is 458.00 yuan/gram, up 23.00 yuan. The basis of the platinum main contract is - 50.66 yuan/gram, up 2.38 yuan; the basis of the palladium main contract is - 120.45 yuan/gram, down 14.80 yuan [2] Supply and Demand Situation - The total supply of platinum in 2025 is expected to be 220.40 tons, down 0.80 tons; the total supply of palladium in 2025 is expected to be 293.00 tons, down 5.00 tons. The total demand for platinum in 2025 is expected to be 261.60 tons, up 25.60 tons; the total demand for palladium in 2025 is expected to be 287.00 tons, down 27.00 tons [2] Macro Data - The US dollar index is 97.90, down 0.36; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 1.94%, unchanged. The VIX volatility index is 14.00, down 0.08 [2] Industry News - The US Q3 real GDP initial value annualized quarterly growth rate was 4.3%, far exceeding the expected 3.3%. US President Trump hopes the next Fed chair will cut interest rates when the economy and market perform well. Gold has risen over 71% this year, and silver has risen about 147%. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January next year is 13.3%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 86.7% [2] Key Points to Watch - The number of initial jobless claims in the US at 21:30 on December 24 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information on the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Today, the platinum and palladium futures main contracts both hit the daily limit. Persistent physical spot shortages and cross - regional arbitrage trading have significantly increased the price elasticity of platinum and palladium recently. The London platinum lease rate continues to rise, and palladium ETF holdings continue to increase, exacerbating the supply - demand contradiction. High domestic - foreign price differentials have spurred arbitrage motives, pushing up spot prices and amplifying futures price elasticity. In the medium to long term, platinum prices may be supported by the Fed's easing expectations, the continuation of the supply - demand structural deficit pattern, and the expansion of long - term demand expectations in the hydrogen economy. Palladium's demand is expected to weaken due to over - concentration in the automotive catalyst field and the continuous popularization of new energy vehicles. The palladium market is shifting from a supply shortage to a surplus, but the bullish sentiment driven by interest - rate cut expectations may support prices. The parabolic rise in platinum and palladium prices may lead to a short - term correction risk due to basis repair needs. The weekly resistance and support levels for London platinum spot are $2100/ounce and $1800/ounce respectively, and for London palladium spot are $1800/ounce and $1500/ounce respectively [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the platinum main contract is 568.45 yuan/gram, up 37.15 yuan; the closing price of the palladium main contract is 508.45 yuan/gram, up 33.25 yuan. The platinum main contract's open interest is 10387 hands, down 277 hands; the palladium main contract's open interest is 3179 hands, up 90 hands [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum spot price (Pt9995) is 533.57 yuan/gram, up 21.92 yuan; the Yangtze River palladium spot price is 429 yuan/gram, unchanged. The platinum main contract's basis is - 34.88 yuan/gram, down 15.23 yuan; the palladium main contract's basis is - 79.45 yuan/gram, down 33.25 yuan. The weekly non - commercial long positions of platinum in CFTC are 9966 contracts, down 243 contracts; those of palladium are 3003 contracts, down 342 contracts [2]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - The total annual supply of platinum in 2025 is expected to be 220.4 tons, down 0.8 tons; the total annual supply of palladium in 2025 is expected to be 293 tons, down 5 tons. The total annual demand for platinum in 2025 is expected to be 261.6 tons, up 25.6 tons; the total annual demand for palladium in 2025 is expected to be 287 tons, down 27 tons [2]. 3.4 Macro Data - The US dollar index is 98.72, up 0.28; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 1.92%, up 0.04%. The VIX volatility index is 14.91, down 1.96 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - US White House National Economic Council Director Hasset agrees with Goolsbee that there is still sufficient room for interest - rate cuts. Trump hopes the Fed Chairman can make an independent judgment, and Trump's aides will discuss housing policies in Florida and are expected to announce a "major" housing plan soon. Fed's Harker prefers to keep interest rates stable before spring, suggests the neutral rate is higher than commonly thought, and opposes near - term interest - rate cuts due to concerns about high inflation. New York Fed President Williams says there is no urgency to cut interest rates again, strengthening the market's expectation of a short - term pause in rate cuts. According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in January next year is 21%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 79%. By March next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 47.1%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 43.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 9.5% [2]. 3.6 Key Points to Watch - On December 22 at 23:00, the US PCE price index month - on - month; on December 23 at 21:30, the US GDP deflator quarter - on - quarter; on December 24 at 21:30, the US initial jobless claims [2].