Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the shock correction of the precious metal market may continue due to some long - profit - taking funds leaving the market after the previous strong rally driven by interest - rate cut expectations. In the long term, platinum prices may maintain strong resilience supported by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, structural supply - demand deficits, the continuous progress of "platinum replacing palladium", and long - term demand expectations in the hydrogen economy. Palladium demand faces significant downward pressure during the "platinum replacing palladium" process in the gasoline purification catalyst field, and the palladium market is shifting from supply shortage to surplus. However, the bullish sentiment driven by interest - rate cut expectations may support the price, and the subsequent catch - up rally of palladium prices is expected to continue [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the platinum main contract was 439.65 yuan/gram, down 2.75 yuan; the closing price of the palladium main contract was 379.25 yuan/gram, down 2.70 yuan. The position of the platinum main contract was 10387.00 lots, down 277.00 lots; the position of the palladium main contract was 3179.00 lots, up 90.00 lots [2]. Spot Market - The Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum spot price (Pt9995) was 428.00 yuan, up 1.00 yuan; the Yangtze River palladium spot price was 372.00 yuan, down 2.50 yuan. The basis of the platinum main contract was - 11.65 yuan/gram, up 3.75 yuan; the basis of the palladium main contract was - 7.25 yuan/gram, up 0.20 yuan [2]. Supply - Demand Situation - The CFTC non - commercial long positions of platinum were 9966.00 contracts, down 243.00 contracts; those of palladium were 3003.00 contracts, down 342.00 contracts. The total supply of platinum in 2025 is expected to be 220.40 tons, down 0.80 tons; the total supply of palladium in 2025 is expected to be 293.00 tons, down 5.00 tons. The total demand for platinum in 2025 is expected to be 261.60 tons, up 25.60 tons; the total demand for palladium in 2025 is expected to be 287.00 tons, down 27.00 tons [2]. Macro Data - The US dollar index was 98.87, down 0.45; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 1.82%, down 0.03%. The VIX volatility index was 16.08, down 0.51 [2]. Industry News - The US ISM services PMI index in November rose to 52.6, a nine - month high. The new order growth declined from a one - year high, and the payment price index dropped to a seven - month low. The employment index rose to a six - month high. The US ADP employment decreased by 32,000 in November, against an expected increase of 10,000. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 89%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 11%. The US has invited the Ukrainian delegation to the US for peace - negotiation consultations. The platinum and palladium main contracts fluctuated weakly during the session, with the London platinum spot price significantly corrected and the London palladium spot price relatively resilient [2]. Key Points to Watch - On December 4th at 20:30, the number of Challenger corporate layoffs in the US in November; at 21:30, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending November 29th; the US PCE personal consumption expenditure data for September (time to be determined) [2].

Group 1: Report Summary - The platinum 2606 main contract fell 1.02% to 440.55 yuan/gram, and the palladium 2606 main contract rose 1.90% to 381.50 yuan/gram as of December 3 [2]. - The precious metal market may enter a technical consolidation phase after a rapid rise, and the correction may continue. Platinum prices may remain strong in the long - term due to factors like Fed rate - cut expectations, supply - demand deficit, "platinum replacing palladium", and long - term hydrogen economy demand. Palladium's supply is affected by South African power supply and Russian geopolitics in the short - to - medium term, while demand faces downward pressure from "platinum replacing palladium", with the market shifting from shortage to surplus, but rate - cut expectations may support prices [2]. - Resistance and support levels for London platinum spot are 1750 and 1500 US dollars per ounce respectively, and for London palladium spot are 1500 and 1350 US dollars per ounce [2]. Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - Platinum main contract closing price (daily, yuan/gram): 440.55, down 4.55; palladium main contract closing price (daily, yuan/gram): 381.50, up 7.10 [2]. - Platinum main contract open interest (daily, lots): 10664, up 171; palladium main contract open interest (daily, lots): 3089, down 117 [2]. Spot Market - Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum spot price (Pt9995): 427, up 1; Yangtze River palladium spot price: 374.50, up 6.50 [2]. - Platinum main contract basis (daily, yuan/gram): - 13.55, up 5.55; palladium main contract basis (daily, yuan/gram): - 7.00, down 0.60 [2]. Supply - Demand Situation - Estimated total platinum supply in 2025 (annual, tons): 220.40, down 0.80; estimated total palladium supply in 2025 (annual, tons): 293.00, down 5.00 [2]. - Estimated total platinum demand in 2025 (annual, tons): 261.60, up 25.60; estimated total palladium demand in 2025 (annual, tons): 287.00, down 27.00 [2]. Macro Data - US dollar index: 99.41, down 0.03; 10 - year US Treasury real yield (%): 1.85, up 0.06 [2]. - VIX volatility index: 17.24, up 0.89 [2]. Group 3: Industry News - Trump may choose long - term advisor Hassett as Fed chair, and Hassett hopes to get the position [2]. - US November ISM manufacturing PMI dropped 0.5 points to 48.2, below 50 for nine consecutive months, with new orders and backlogs contracting [2]. - Eurozone November CPI preliminary value rose 2.2% year - on - year (expected 2.1%), down 0.3% month - on - month; core CPI rose 2.4% year - on - year (expected 2.5%), down 0.4% month - on - month. Eurozone October unemployment rate was 6.4% (expected 6.3%) [2]. Group 4: Key Data to Watch - December 3, 21:15: US ADP private sector employment data [2]. - December 3, 21:30: US September import price index monthly rate [2]. - December 3, 23:00: US November ISM non - manufacturing PMI [2]. - US September PCE personal consumption expenditure data (time to be determined) [2].

12月3日盘中，钯期货主力合约遭遇一波急速上涨，最高上探至387.35元。截止发稿，钯主力合约报 383.05元，涨幅2.31%。 宏观方面，近期市场依旧对美联储降息预期走强进行交易，铂钯作为贵金属一族，总体存在较强的宏观 属性，在总体风险偏好走强、以金银为代表的贵金属价格大涨的背景下，宏观强力推动铂钯呈现阶段性 走强，但由于宏观动力反覆，注意回调风险，尤其是日本央行近期加息预期引发市场流动性预期走弱， 会为风险资产定价带来压力;基本面方面，铂金2025年总体供需处于偏紧状态，铂金显性库存有去化表 现，基本面有支撑，但近期广期所铂价与外盘出现套利价差，宏观趋势若有反转，现货套利预计带来回 调风险；钯金总体需求增长有限，基本面给与驱动力量不足。 瑞达期货：降息预期所带动的偏多情绪或给予钯金一定支撑 中短期内供应端的边际变化主要受到南非电力供应紧张以及俄罗斯地缘政治局势的影响。需求端，在汽 油净化催化剂领域中"铂代钯"持续推进的过程中，钯金需求较为面临明显的下行压力，钯金市场正逐步 由供不应求转向供应过剩，供需格局预期较为宽松，但降息预期所带动的偏多情绪或给予价格一定支 撑。 钯期货主力涨超2%，对于后市行情如何 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Driven by interest - rate cut news, the precious - metal market is generally strong, leading to significant price increases for platinum and palladium futures. The platinum 2606 main contract rose 3.98% to 451.6 yuan/gram, and the palladium 2606 main contract rose 2.44% to 382.35 yuan/gram [2]. - For platinum, in 2025, the global market is expected to have a supply gap of about 692,000 ounces. With the continuous consumption of above - ground inventory, the physical spot market is in a long - term tight situation. In the short term, platinum prices are expected to fluctuate upward; in the medium - to - long term, they may maintain a strong trend, but there may be some profit - taking sentiment [2]. - For palladium, in the medium - to - short term, supply is affected by South Africa's power supply and Russia's geopolitical situation. Demand is under downward pressure due to the "platinum replacing palladium" trend. The market is shifting from supply shortage to surplus, but the warm trading sentiment in precious metals may support prices [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Platinum main - contract closing price (daily, yuan/gram): 451.60, up 9.10; palladium main - contract closing price (daily, yuan/gram): 382.35 [2]. - Platinum main - contract position (daily, lots): 10,624.00, up 2,576.00; palladium main - contract position (daily, lots): 3,028.00, up 478.00 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum spot price (Pt9995): 438.00, up 24.00; Yangtze River palladium spot price: 384.50, up 22.00 [2]. - Platinum main - contract basis (daily, yuan/gram): 6.80, up; palladium main - contract basis (daily, yuan/gram): - 13.60, up 12.90 [2]. - Platinum CFTC non - commercial long positions (weekly, contracts): 9,966.00, down 243.00; palladium CFTC non - commercial long positions (weekly, contracts): 3,003.00, down 342.00 [2]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - Total platinum supply (annual, tons) in 2025 is expected to be 220.40, down 0.80; total palladium supply (annual, tons) in 2025 is expected to be 293.00, down 5.00 [2]. - Total platinum demand (annual, tons) in 2025 is expected to be 261.60, up 25.60; total palladium demand (annual, tons) in 2025 is expected to be 287.00, down 27.00 [2]. 3.4 Macro Data - Dollar index: 99.44, down 0.12; 10 - year US Treasury real yield (%): 0.02, up [2]. - VIX volatility index: 16.35, down 0.86 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Market expectations are that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December with a probability of about 85% - 86% according to the market pricing, and 87.4% according to CME's "FedWatch". The probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged is 12.6%. By January next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 67.5%, the probability of maintaining the rate unchanged is 9.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 23.2% [2]. 3.6 Key Points to Watch - November 11 US ISM manufacturing PMI on December 1 [2]. - US JOLTS job - opening data on December 2 [2]. - US ADP private - sector employment data on December 3 [2]. - US September PCE personal consumption expenditure data (time to be determined) [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The platinum market is expected to face a supply deficit in 2025, with a shortage of 692,000 ounces. Despite a possible balance or slight surplus in 2026 under certain conditions, the supply - side structural tension and long - term demand potential from the hydrogen industry remain. The price is likely to break through $2000 in the medium - term [62]. - The palladium market is facing a double - pressure of supply surplus and structural demand decline. The supply surplus is expected to expand to 245,000 ounces in 2025, and the price will face downward pressure in the future [61][65]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Platinum and Palladium Overview - **Physical and Chemical Properties**: Platinum is a silver - white metal with high density, excellent high - temperature resistance, and good ductility. It is chemically stable and an excellent catalyst. Palladium is also a silver - white metal, lighter than platinum, with good high - temperature performance and unique hydrogen - absorption ability. It is also a highly efficient catalyst [8][9][10][11]. - **Industrial Chain**: The upstream of the platinum - palladium industrial chain is highly geographically concentrated, with South Africa and Russia dominating. The mid - stream involves refining and purification, and the downstream demand for platinum is diverse, while palladium is mainly used in the automotive sector. China has a low self - sufficiency rate and is taking measures to ensure supply chain security [12]. - **Futures Contracts**: China lacks platinum and palladium futures pricing power. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has released a draft for soliciting opinions on platinum and palladium futures contracts, with innovative delivery systems and specific contract parameters [14][15]. 3.2 Supply - **Global Supply Pattern**: In 2024, global platinum supply was 81% from mines and 19% from recycling, while palladium supply was 71.5% from mines and 28.5% from recycling. South Africa dominated platinum production, and Russia was the largest palladium producer. Four major mining giants dominated global platinum and palladium supply [18][20][25]. - **China's Supply Pattern**: China's platinum supply is highly dependent on imports, while palladium supply has stronger self - sufficiency due to a well - established recycling system. China's platinum and palladium imports are geographically concentrated, and the export scale is small. The domestic recycling industry has potential for growth [33][34][36]. 3.3 Demand - **Global Demand Structure**: Platinum demand is relatively diversified, with the automotive catalyst sector being the largest, followed by industrial applications. Palladium demand is highly concentrated in the automotive catalyst sector. Platinum demand is less volatile, while palladium demand is more affected by the automotive industry [39]. - **China's Demand Structure**: China's platinum demand focuses on green energy transformation, while palladium demand is also mainly in the automotive industry but faces more uncertainty due to the impact of new - energy vehicles [42]. - **Application Areas**: In the automotive industry, platinum, palladium, and rhodium play different roles in exhaust catalysts. In glass manufacturing, platinum - rhodium alloys and palladium alloys are used for their high - temperature stability and corrosion resistance. In the jewelry and investment fields, platinum investment demand is strong, and jewelry demand is recovering. In the hydrogen energy industry, platinum and palladium are core catalysts [47][50][51][56]. 3.4 Balance and Outlook - **Global Balance**: The platinum market is facing supply shortages, while the palladium market is facing supply surpluses and demand declines. The supply of platinum is affected by production challenges in South Africa and North America, while demand is supported by the automotive and hydrogen energy industries. The palladium supply surplus is due to reduced demand in the automotive sector and increased recycling [58][61]. - **Price and Outlook**: The platinum price is expected to rise in the medium - term, while the palladium price is under downward pressure. The future price trends of both metals are related to the automotive industry, recycling markets, and policy factors [62][65].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for platinum/palladium is "Oscillating" [5] 2. Core Views of the Report - Platinum and palladium are platinum - group metals with high melting points, strong catalytic activity, and corrosion resistance. Their spot benchmark pricing power is concentrated in the London Platinum and Palladium Market, and the futures pricing power is dominated by the New York Mercantile Exchange. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has announced a draft for comments on platinum and palladium futures contracts [1]. - On the supply side, global platinum and palladium resources are highly concentrated, with significant oligopoly risks. China has a high degree of import dependence, and the import risk remains high for a long time [2]. - On the demand side, platinum demand fluctuates greatly, mainly from the automotive and investment sectors. Palladium demand is highly concentrated in the automotive sector. China is the largest consumer of platinum and palladium. The hydrogen energy demand for platinum and palladium has a bright future, and the investment demand is expected to continue to rise [3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Platinum and Palladium Basics - Platinum and palladium have similar physical and chemical properties, such as high melting points, good ductility, and strong catalytic activity. Platinum is mainly used in diesel vehicle catalysts, high - end jewelry, and the chemical industry, while palladium is mainly used in gasoline vehicle catalysts [1][15][16]. 3.2 Platinum and Palladium Industry Chain - **Upstream**: Global platinum - group metal resources are highly concentrated in South Africa and Russia. China's platinum - group element reserves are less than 1% of the world's, and the supply is highly dependent on imports [20]. - **Mid - stream**: Processing includes primary metal extraction and recycling. The extraction and refining of primary platinum and palladium are complex. There are differences in the separation and purification processes of platinum and palladium, with platinum having a longer refining cycle and lower short - term supply elasticity [24][25]. - **Downstream**: Palladium demand is highly concentrated in the automotive sector, while platinum demand is more diversified, including automotive, jewelry, industrial, and investment sectors. There are differences in their applications in different fields [28][29][30]. 3.3 Platinum and Palladium Circulation and Pricing Market - Platinum and palladium are mainly circulated in the form of metal ingots and sponge metals. The current global pricing system includes the London Platinum and Palladium Market for spot pricing and the New York Mercantile Exchange for futures pricing. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has announced a draft for comments on platinum and palladium futures contracts to address China's lack of pricing power [32][42][47]. 3.4 Supply Side - **Cyclical Supply and Stable Ratio of Primary to Recycled**: Global platinum and palladium supply shows cyclical characteristics. The ratio of primary to recycled supply has remained relatively stable in the long term, with palladium having a slightly higher recycling ratio [51][52]. - **Overseas Primary Supply**: Platinum - group metal resources are highly concentrated in South Africa and Russia. The production of platinum and palladium mines has shown a downward trend in recent years. The output of leading mining enterprises has decreased, and short - term supply may remain tight [57][58][62]. - **Recycled Platinum and Palladium**: The main source of recycled platinum and palladium is the automotive sector. Traditional recycling regions are developed economies in Europe, America, and Japan. China's recycled platinum production has been increasing. The supply of recycled platinum and palladium is related to the vehicle scrapping cycle and policy drivers [89][90][95]. 3.5 Global Platinum and Palladium Trade and China's Supply - In international trade, platinum and palladium are mainly exported from South Africa and Russia. China, Germany, the United States, and other countries are major importers. China is highly dependent on imports for platinum and palladium, facing long - term import risks. Some domestic enterprises are investing overseas, but it is difficult to change the import - dependent pattern in the short term [100][104][107]. 3.6 Demand Side - **Automotive Exhaust Catalysts**: This is the main demand source for platinum and palladium. Platinum is mainly used in diesel vehicle catalysts, and palladium is mainly used in gasoline vehicle catalysts. The demand is related to automobile production and sales, policies, and price - driven substitution effects between platinum and palladium [133][134][136]. - **Jewelry**: Platinum is an ideal material for high - end jewelry, especially in the wedding market. China is the main source of demand elasticity for platinum jewelry. Jewelry demand is related to macro - economic indicators and inventory cycles [148][149][158]. - **Industrial Demand**: Platinum and palladium are widely used in the industrial field. Platinum demand in the glass and chemical industries is related to the real - estate cycle and macro - economic indicators. The demand in the electronics, petrochemical, and medical industries is relatively stable. Hydrogen energy is a future growth point for demand [159][163][166].