期货下午茶·每日复盘 2026年1月5日 星期一 | 市场情绪仪表盘 ● 弱势 强势 ● 震荡 ® 剧烈分化 贵金属锂电狂飙 | 煤炭化工重挫 | 今日关键词 ■ 碳酸锂强势 8 钮金暴涨8% △ 纯碱库存大增 | ▽ 今日焦点 (多头明星) 锂2606 +8.884 GFEX pd2605 国信期货:受海外反弹及地缘避险驱动,铂把盘中一度涨超11%。虽然技术上有 超跌修复需求,但基本面（工业需求不明、汽车电动化压力）与宏观情绪拉扯剧 烈。预计后续将跟随黄金及大宗板块宽幅震荡，维持高波动特征。 | 今日热点资讯 特朗普强硬表态：短期内需委内瑞拉提供"完全准入"以获取石油及资源； 宏观 九部门联合发文促进汽车绿色消费,支持房车、后市场发展。 截止到2026年1月5日,国内纯碱厂家总库存150.84万吨,较上期增加 化工 10.01万吨,涨幅7.11%。其中，轻质纯碱79.57万吨,环比增加6.35万吨,重质 纯碱71.27万吨，环比增加3.66万吨。 路透与彭博调查：预计马来西亚2025年12月棕榈油库存将逼近300万吨， 油脂 或创近期新高,尽管产量大幅下滑。 马来西亚衍生品交易所（BMD）缩短夜盘交易时段3 ...

2026年开年首个交易周，期货市场便迎来重磅事件冲击。1月5日，国内期货市场一边是钯金、碳酸锂、铂金等品种飙涨超6%，另一边是原油、焦煤、纯 碱等主力合约跌超2%。这背后，是一则突发的地缘政治事件与国内清晰的产业政策形成了激烈碰撞，驱动资金在避险与赛道间重新布局。 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨幅(铝)↓ | | 涨速 | 成交量 | 持命 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | pd2606 | 耙2606 | 452.85 | +8.88% | 36.95 | -0.03 | 3.28万 | 1.36万 | | Ic2605 | 碳酸锂2605 | 129980 | +7.74% | 9340 | 0.02 | 34.36万 | 51.53万 | | pt2606 | 铂2606 | 583.95 | +6.48% | 35.55 | -0.49 | 5.75万 | 3.19万 | | wr2601 | 线材2601 | 3600 | +4.93% | 169 | 0.00 | 3 | 0 | | AP2605 | 本首5605 | ...

正信期货表示，铂价近期大幅上涨主要是受到白银大幅上涨的带动，铂与白银类似，都是兼具金融属性 和工业属性的品种，因此后续铂价波动或仍紧密跟随白银节奏。目前，贵金属板块行情有暂时见顶的迹 象，考虑到铂自身基本面及价格弹性，预计铂将由单边上涨转入宽幅震荡，无论多或空，操作难度均较 大，注意风险控制。 国信期货指出，在地缘风险推动的避险情绪与全球经济增长忧虑并存的复杂环境中，铂钯预计将主要跟 随黄金及大宗商品板块整体情绪宽幅震荡。 目前来看，铂行情呈现震荡上行走势，盘面表现偏强。对于铂后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点汇总 如下： 瑞达期货（002961）分析称，铂金在美联储宽松预期、供需结构性赤字格局延续、氢能经济中长期需求 预期扩张的支撑下，中长期或继续支撑铂金价格。 1月5日，国内期市贵金属板块全线飘红。其中，铂期货主力合约开盘报612.00元/克，今日盘中高位震 荡运行；截至发稿，铂主力最高触及612.00元，下方探低566.40元，涨幅达6.77%附近。 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12. 31」 铂钯金市场周报 作者： 研究员 廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 助理研究员 徐鼎烽 期货从业资格号：F03144963 取 更 多 资 讯 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业供需情况 4、宏观及期权 「 周度要点小结」 ◆ 本周观点：金银价格大幅回调带动贵金属市场整体情绪转弱，本周广期所铂钯金主力合约由强转 弱，连续两日盘中录得跌停。前期，在贵金属市场整体情绪持续升温、实物库存趋紧以及套利交 易推动下，铂钯价格经历大幅拉升，价格明显偏离基本面定价，本轮回调可视为前期行情过热的 阶段性降温，短期内铂钯金市场或进入高位震荡盘整阶段。然而，前期积累的挤仓压力难以迅速 化解，现货紧缺格局仍可能支撑价格出现脉冲式反弹。展望未来，铂金在美联储宽松预期、供需 结构性赤字格局延续、氢能经济中长期需求预期扩张的支撑下，中长期或继续支撑铂金价格。钯 金在汽车催化剂领域的过度集中化，以及新能源汽车的持续普及，使其需求端预期走弱，钯金市 场正逐步由供不应求转向供应过剩，供需格局预期较为宽松，但降息预期所带动的偏多情绪或给 予价格一定支撑，钯金当前 ...

铂钯金期货日报 2025/12/30 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 铂金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） | 589.85 | -88.10↓ 钯金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） | 447.45 | -66.85↓ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 10387.00 | -277.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:钯金(日,手) | 3179.00 | +90.00↑ | 主力合约持仓量:铂金(日,手) | | | | | | | | 上金所铂金现货价（Pt9995） | 565.12 | -72.03↓ 长江钯金现货平均价 | 408.00 | -80.00↓ | 现货市场 | 铂金主力合约基差(日,元/克) | -24.73 | 16.07↑ 钯金主力合约基差(日,元/克) | -39.45 | -13.15↓ | | | 铂金CFTC非商业多头持仓（周，张） | 9966.00 | -243.00↓ 钯金CFTC非商业多头持仓（ ...

铂钯金期货日报 2025/12/29 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 铂金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） -70.45↓ 钯金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） 494.10 | 634.35 | | | -54.90↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量:铂金(日,手) -277.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:钯金(日,手) 3179.00 | 10387.00 | | | +90.00↑ | | 现货市场 | 上金所铂金现货价（Pt9995） -25.00↓ 长江钯金现货平均价 | 637.15 | | 488.00 | 60.00↑ | | | 铂金主力合约基差(日,元/克) | 2.80 | 45.45↑ 钯金主力合约基差(日,元/克) | -6.10 | 114.90↑ | | | 铂金CFTC非商业多头持仓（周，张） 3003.00 | 9966.00 | -243.00↓ 钯金CFTC非商业多头持仓（周，张） | | -342.00↓ | | 供需情况 | 供应量:铂金:总计 ...

消息面上，俄乌局势在"谈判推进"与"冲突升级"间快速切换，其他区域风险事件亦持续发生，为包括铂 族金属在内的整个贵金属板块提供了持续的避险溢价与不确定性支撑。此外，在白银价格连续创出历史 新高的强烈情绪带动下，市场资金显著向铂族金属轮动，推动其价格同步强势突破。展望后市，铂钯或 延续震荡偏强运行。技术面上，铂金主力合约短期支撑参考650元/克附近，上方阻力看向750元/克附 近；钯金主力合约支撑关注500元/克附近，阻力参考600元/克附近。操作上，在情绪主导的高波动行情 中，建议将风险控制和仓位管理置于绝对首位。 12月29日盘中，钯期货主力合约遭遇一波急速下挫，截止发稿，钯主力合约触及跌停，报494.10元，跌 幅10.00%。 钯期货主力触及跌停，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 国信期货 后市铂钯或延续震荡偏强运行 瑞达期货 铂钯金价格短期需谨防技术性回调压力 国信期货：后市铂钯或延续震荡偏强运行 瑞达期货（002961）：铂钯金价格短期需谨防技术性回调压力 过去一周铂钯金整体偏强运行，铂钯走势逐步分化，铂价在偏强基本面预期驱动下展现更强韧性，而钯 金多次在盘中冲高回落，再度验证 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the precious metals market witnessed a spectacular bull market driven by multiple factors such as the evolution of the global monetary system, geopolitical risks, and supply - demand imbalances. In 2026, the precious metals market will be jointly driven by macro - financial attributes and industrial supply - demand fundamentals, with significant differentiation among varieties [4][97]. - The safe - haven attribute of precious metals is shifting from the traditional model to hedging against sovereign credit risks. The currency attribute is affected by factors like inflation, employment, and central bank monetary policies. The commodity attribute is characterized by structural changes in supply and demand for different precious metals [19][27][68]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In 2025, all four major precious metals (gold, silver, platinum, and palladium) soared. Gold continued its bull market, silver and platinum doubled in value, and the precious metals sector became the most outstanding asset class. The market's rise was phased, with gold leading in Q1, silver emerging in Q2, and platinum and palladium surging in Q3 and Q4 [4]. - Gold reached a record high of over $4500 per ounce, with a nearly 70% annual increase. Silver was the star performer, rising over 140%. Platinum and palladium also had significant gains, with platinum up about 160% and palladium over 100% [8][10][14][17]. 3.2 Evolution Logic of the Safe - Haven Attribute - The safe - haven function of precious metals is shifting from traditional geopolitical and economic recession hedging to hedging against the sustainability of sovereign currency credit, especially the US dollar. This is due to the weakening of the US dollar credit and the multi - polarization reconstruction of the global monetary system [19]. - Different precious metals show different safe - haven attributes. Gold is most directly related to sovereign credit concerns, while silver reflects both safe - haven sentiment and industrial cycle changes, and platinum and palladium are more closely related to specific industry trends [21]. - The US debt situation, policy uncertainty, and the potential for a significant correction in the US stock market may increase the safe - haven value of precious metals. However, if geopolitical tensions ease or AI technology boosts productivity, the safe - haven attribute may weaken [23][25][26]. 3.3 Evolution Logic of the Currency Attribute - In 2026, global inflation is expected to continue its moderate decline, but there are significant regional differences. US inflation remains sticky, with a complex "U - shaped" or wave - like downward trend, while the eurozone's inflation problem is basically resolved [27][33][36]. - The US employment market is expected to remain weak in 2026, with low job growth and a rising unemployment rate. This will put pressure on the Fed's decision - making [41][42]. - The Fed is expected to cut interest rates in 2026, but the pace will be extremely slow, and the first cut may be later than market expectations. The difference in interest - rate cut expectations between the Fed and non - US central banks will affect the US dollar index and precious metals prices [52][59][60]. 3.4 Evolution Logic of the Commodity Attribute - In 2026, gold demand is expected to be driven by strategic allocation, with official and institutional investors playing a key role. Supply is facing long - term structural constraints, such as limited growth in mining and reduced elasticity in recycling [68][70]. - The silver market has been in a supply shortage for five consecutive years, and the gap is expected to widen in 2026. Supply growth is highly inelastic, while demand is driven by industrial needs and investment [73][74][75]. - The platinum market is expected to reach a tight balance in 2026, but the underlying support is fragile. Any unexpected supply disruption or demand surge may break the balance [79]. - The palladium market is expected to shift from a supply shortage to a surplus in 2026, driven by the decline in automotive demand due to electrification and a marginal increase in supply [80][81]. 3.5 Dynamic Combination Analysis of Fundamental and Technical Aspects - London gold has been in a long - term upward trend. It is expected to continue rising until the Fed hints at the end of interest - rate cuts in mid - 2026. Attention should be paid to the pressure at $4830 - 5000 and the support at $4000 [84][85]. - London silver is expected to have high volatility. It is recommended to focus on the pressure at $100 - 120 and the support at $58 [88][89]. - London platinum has entered a new cycle. Pay attention to the pressure at $3000 - 3300 and the support at $1760 [91]. - London palladium is in a long - term re - balancing phase. Focus on the pressure at $2080 - 2480 and the support at $1480 [95]. 3.6 Future Market Direction from the Perspective of Long - Short Game - In 2026, the precious metals market will continue to be strong, but there will be significant differentiation among varieties. Gold will be the most stable, silver will have high price elasticity, platinum has great potential, and palladium is expected to be the weakest [97]. 3.7 Overview of the Domestic Precious Metals Industry Chain - In the first three quarters of 2025, domestic gold production increased, with both domestic and imported raw materials contributing. Gold consumption decreased, but there were differences among different product categories. China has been increasing its gold reserves for strategic reasons [98][100][102]. - Major domestic gold enterprises have different production plans and characteristics. For example, Zijin Mining is the largest producer with a high proportion of overseas output, and Shandong Gold has rich resource reserves in the Jiaodong gold belt [103].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12. 26」 铂钯金市场周报 作者： 研究员 廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 助理研究员 徐鼎烽 期货从业资格号：F03144963 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业供需情况 4、宏观及期权 「 周度要点小结」 ◆ 本周观点：本周铂钯金市场整体偏强运行，铂钯走势逐步呈分化态势，铂价在偏强基本面预期驱 动下展现了更强的韧性，而钯金多次在盘中冲高回落，再度验证了市场对于"铂强钯弱"的预期。 实物库存紧缺加剧，以及跨地区套利交易使得近期铂金价格弹性显著放大。外盘伦敦铂金租赁利 率继续抬升，钯金ETF持仓持续增加，进一步吸纳流通货源，加剧供需矛盾。较高的内外价差激 发了套利动机，推升现货价格并放大期货价格弹性。展望未来，铂金在美联储宽松预期、供需结 构性赤字格局延续、氢能经济中长期需求预期扩张的支撑下，中长期或继续支撑铂金价格。钯金 在汽车催化剂领域的过度集中化，以及新能源汽车的持续普及，使其需求端预期走弱，钯金市场 正逐步由供不应求转向供应过剩，供需格局预期较为宽松，但降息预期所带动的偏多情绪或给予 ...

铂钯金期货日报 2025/12/24 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证， 据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公 司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究 院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 铂金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） | 657.65 | 43.00↑ 钯金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） | 578.45 | +37.80↑ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 10387.00 | -277.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:钯金(日,手) | 3179.00 | +90.00↑ | 主力合约持仓量:铂金(日,手) | | | | | | | | ...