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久立特材:深度研究报告可控核聚变系列研究(六)核聚变磁体铠甲关键供应商,新兴产业潜在需求或被低估-20260129
Huachuang Securities· 2026-01-29 00:25
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is a key supplier of stainless steel armor for fusion magnets, with potential demand in emerging industries possibly underestimated [7] - The company has a competitive advantage in the superconducting magnet segment, particularly with its stainless steel armor products, which are essential components of superconducting magnet systems [6][8] - The report highlights the expected capital expenditure expansion cycle in the controlled nuclear fusion industry, which may lead to increased orders across the supply chain [34] Financial Summary - Projected total revenue (in million) for 2024A is 10,918, with a year-on-year growth of 27.4%. For 2025E, it is expected to be 11,795, with a growth of 8.0%. However, a decline of 8.7% is anticipated for 2026E, followed by a slight increase of 2.2% in 2027E [2] - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders (in million) for 2024A is 1,490, with a minimal growth of 0.1%. For 2025E, it is expected to be 1,540, with a growth of 3.3%. A decline of 12.7% is expected for 2026E, followed by a recovery of 16.3% in 2027E [2] - The target price range for the company is set between 40.0 and 48.0 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 13% to 35% from the current price of 35.43 yuan [2][9] Industry Analysis Controlled Nuclear Fusion Sector - The company’s stainless steel armor products are crucial for superconducting magnet systems, which are essential for the Tokamak devices, the leading technology in nuclear fusion [13][21] - The company has secured a significant project with the Chinese Academy of Sciences for stainless steel armor, valued at 58.168 million yuan, showcasing its strong supply capabilities [30] Nuclear Power Industry - The nuclear power sector in China is expected to see substantial growth, with projections indicating the need for 10 GW of new nuclear power installations annually from 2025 to 2030 [56] - The company is a key supplier of U-shaped pipes for third-generation nuclear power plants and is strategically positioned in the fourth-generation nuclear technology space [56][60] Aerospace Sector - The company has launched a production line for aerospace-grade pipes, establishing a first-mover advantage in the supply chain [8] Traditional Downstream Sector - The oil and gas industry shows long-term demand potential, with the company possessing advanced technology for nickel-based alloy oil well pipes [8]