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公募REITs周报(第58期):指数继续下跌,经营权类表现优于产权类-20260323
Guoxin Securities· 2026-03-23 03:08
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the REITs market continued its decline, with the CSI REITs Index down 0.1% for the week. The guarantee housing, transportation, ecological environment protection, data center, and energy sectors rose, while other sectors fell. In terms of the weekly percentage changes of major indices, CSI All-Bond > CSI REITs > CSI 300 > CSI Convertible Bond. As of March 20, 2026, the dividend yield of property REITs was 48BP lower than the average dividend yield of CSI Dividend stocks, and the spread between the average internal rate of return of concession-based REITs and the 10-year Treasury yield was 336BP. The underlying assets of REITs continued to diversify, with the first tunnel public offering project approved, filling the gap in the transportation segment, and the first household photovoltaic project listed, demonstrating the innovative breadth of revitalizing existing assets [1]. Market Trends Secondary Market Trends - As of March 20, 2026, the closing price of the CSI REITs (closing) Index was 785.00 points, with a weekly change of -0.1%, performing worse than the CSI All-Bond Index (0.0%) but better than the CSI 300 Index (-2.2%) and the CSI Convertible Bond (-3.2%). Since the beginning of the year, the percentage changes of major indices were in the order of CSI REITs (+0.8%) > CSI All-Bond (+0.6%) > CSI Convertible Bond (+0.1%) > CSI 300 (-1.4%) [2][9]. - In the past year, the return rate of the CSI REITs Index was -8.7%, with a volatility of 6.8%. The return rate was lower than that of the CSI Convertible Bond Index, the CSI 300 Index, and the CSI All-Bond Index; the volatility was lower than that of the CSI 300 Index and the CSI Convertible Bond Index but higher than that of the CSI All-Bond Index. The total market value of REITs on March 20 was 223.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 200 million yuan from the previous week; the average daily turnover rate for the whole week was 0.30%, a decrease of 0.06 percentage points from the previous week [2][12]. - Concession-based REITs outperformed property REITs. As of March 20, 2026, the average weekly percentage changes of property REITs and concession-based REITs were -0.1% and 0.4% respectively. In terms of different project types, REITs in the affordable rental housing, transportation infrastructure, ecological environment protection, new infrastructure, and energy infrastructure sectors rose, while other types of REITs fell [18]. - In terms of specific targets, the top three REITs in terms of weekly percentage increase were CICC Chongqing Liangjiang REIT (+3.18%), Huaxia Beijing Affordable Housing REIT (+2.77%), and CICC Xiamen Anju REIT (+2.38%) [3][20]. - New infrastructure REITs had the highest trading activity. In terms of different project types, new infrastructure REITs had the highest daily turnover rate during the period, with an average daily turnover rate of 0.6%; transportation infrastructure REITs had the highest trading volume share this week, accounting for 22.0% of the total trading volume of REITs [3][24]. - In terms of the capital flow of different REIT products this week, the top three in terms of net inflow of main funds were Harvest JD Warehouse Infrastructure REIT (5.59 million yuan), Huaxia CNNC Clean Energy REIT (5.33 million yuan), and Huaxia Yuexiu Expressway REIT (4.82 million yuan) [3][25]. Primary Market Issuance - From January 1 to March 20, 2026, there were 4 REIT products in the inquired stage, 16 products in the feedback stage, and 5 products in the accepted stage on the exchange [27]. Valuation Tracking - REITs have both bond and equity characteristics. From the bond perspective, under the constraint of mandatory high dividends, the annualized cash distribution rate is of concern. As of March 20, the average annualized cash distribution rate of public REITs was 6.4%. From the equity perspective, the relative net value premium rate, IRR, and P/FFO are used to judge the valuation of REITs. The relative net value premium rate reflects the relationship between the market value and the fair value of the fund, similar to the PB indicator of stocks; IRR is the internal rate of return calculated using the cash flow discount method; P/FFO is the current price divided by the cash flow generated from operations. The relative net value premium rate is a long-term perspective, evaluating the secondary market valuation level from the valuation of the underlying assets; P/FFO is a short-term perspective, valuing the distributable cash flow based on the recent operating conditions of the assets to judge the current investment return rate [29]. - Property REITs and concession-based REITs have significant differences in asset rights, income sources, term characteristics, and risk characteristics. For property REITs, the focus is on the dividend yield, while for concession-based REITs, the focus is on the internal rate of return. As of March 20, 2026, the dividend yield of property REITs was 48BP lower than the average dividend yield of CSI Dividend stocks, and the spread between the average internal rate of return of concession-based REITs and the 10-year Treasury yield was 336BP [31]. Industry News - The first tunnel public REIT in the country was officially approved. On March 16, according to the official website of the Shanghai Stock Exchange, the Dongfanghong Tunnel Co., Ltd. Expressway Closed-end Infrastructure Securities Investment Fund was officially approved. The initiator of the project was Shanghai Infrastructure Construction and Development (Group) Co., Ltd., and the manager was Shanghai Oriental Securities Asset Management Co., Ltd. This project was the first public REIT for tunnel infrastructure in the current market. The underlying asset of the Dongfanghong Tunnel Co., Ltd. Expressway REIT was the Qianjiang Tunnel section of the Qianjiang Channel and Connecting Line Project, with a total route length of 4,450m. The project was expected to raise 4.356 billion yuan [4][36].