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公募REITs周报(第30期):指数震荡回落,量价齐跌-20250817
Guoxin Securities· 2025-08-17 11:51
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the release of the second - quarter reports, REITs shifted from a general upward trend to a volatile correction. The market value and average daily turnover rate of all - market REITs decreased. The weekly decline of the CSI REITs Index was 1.62%. The average weekly price changes of property - type REITs and franchise - type REITs were - 1.57% and - 2.04% respectively. Among major indices, the performance ranking in terms of weekly price change was: CSI 300 > CSI Convertible Bond Index > CSI Aggregate Bond Index > CSI REITs Index. Except for data center REITs, other types of REITs closed down [1]. - As of August 15, 2025, the average annualized cash distribution rate of public - offering REITs was 6.3%, significantly higher than the current static yields of mainstream fixed - income assets. The dividend yield of property - type REITs was 13 basis points higher than the average dividend yield of CSI Dividend stocks, and the spread between the average internal rate of return of franchise - type REITs and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield was 232 basis points [1]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Secondary Market Trends - As of August 15, 2025, the closing price of the CSI REITs (closing) Index was 853.96 points, with a weekly decline of 1.62%. It performed worse than the CSI 300 Index (+2.31%), the CSI Convertible Bond Index (+1.60%), and the CSI Aggregate Bond Index (-0.62%). Since the beginning of the year, the ranking of major indices in terms of price change was: CSI Convertible Bond Index (+14.6%) > CSI REITs Index (+8.2%) > CSI 300 Index (+6.8%) > CSI Aggregate Bond Index (+0.8%) [2][7]. - In the past year, the return rate of the CSI REITs Index was 5.1%, and the volatility was 7.8%. The return rate was lower than that of the CSI 300 Index and the CSI Convertible Bond Index but higher than that of the CSI Aggregate Bond Index. The volatility was lower than that of the CSI 300 Index and the CSI Convertible Bond Index but higher than that of the CSI Aggregate Bond Index. The total market value of REITs rose to 217.8 billion yuan on August 15, a decrease of 3.5 billion yuan from the previous week. The average daily turnover rate for the whole week was 0.64%, a decrease of 0.12 percentage points from the previous week [2][9]. - Only data center REITs closed up. The average weekly price changes of property - type REITs and franchise - type REITs were - 1.57% and - 2.04% respectively. Except for new - type infrastructure (data center) REITs, other types of REITs closed down. The top three REITs in terms of weekly price increase were Southern Vanda Data Center REIT (+5.59%), Southern Runze Technology Data Center REIT (+4.26%), and Huaxia China Resources Commercial REIT (+0.62%) [3][14][16]. - New - type infrastructure REITs had the highest trading activity. The average daily turnover rate of new - type infrastructure REITs was 5.6%, and their trading volume accounted for 24.0% of the total trading volume of REITs. The top three REITs in terms of net inflow of main funds were Southern Runze Technology Data Center REIT (47.55 million yuan), Southern Vanda Data Center REIT (26.93 million yuan), and CITIC Construction Investment State Power Investment New Energy REIT (8.13 million yuan) [3]. Primary Market Issuance - As of August 15, 2025, there was 1 REIT product in the "accepted" stage, 2 in the "inquired" stage, 6 in the "feedback received" stage, 4 in the "approved and awaiting listing" stage, and 10 first - issued products that had been listed on the exchange [23]. - China Securities Regulatory Commission approved a total of 1 billion fund units for CICC Vipshop Outlet Mall REIT. Among them, the initial strategic placement was 700 million units, the initial offline offering was 210 million units, and the initial public offering was 90 million units. Based on the issuance of 1 billion units, the raised funds would be 3.48 billion yuan. The estimated annualized distribution rate was about 4.71%. CICC Vipshop Outlet Mall REIT was an important asset operation platform for Vipshop's online - offline collaborative strategy. The underlying assets were located in Ningbo, and Vipshop had more than 20 shopping centers, providing sufficient assets for future expansion [4][30]. Valuation Tracking - From the perspective of the bond nature of REITs, due to the constraint of mandatory high dividends, the focus was on the annualized cash distribution rate. As of August 15, the average annualized cash distribution rate of public - offering REITs was 6.3%, significantly higher than the current static yields of mainstream fixed - income assets [25]. - From the perspective of the equity nature, the relative net - value premium rate, IRR, and P/FFO were used to judge the valuation of REITs. Different types of REITs had different valuation indicators. For property - type REITs, the focus was on the dividend yield, while for franchise - type REITs, the focus was on the internal rate of return. As of August 15, 2025, the dividend yield of property - type REITs was 13 basis points higher than the average dividend yield of CSI Dividend stocks, and the spread between the average internal rate of return of franchise - type REITs and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield was 232 basis points [25][28].
公募REITs周报(第27期):指数继续回调,各板块均收跌-20250727
Guoxin Securities· 2025-07-27 15:21
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the China Securities REITs Index declined. The performance of property - type REITs was stronger than that of franchise - type REITs. The average weekly price changes of property - type REITs and franchise - type REITs were - 1.8% and - 2.6% respectively. All types of REITs in the market closed lower, with the smallest declines in park, transportation, and warehousing and logistics REITs. As of July 25, the average annualized cash distribution rate of public REITs was 5.9%, significantly higher than the current static yields of mainstream fixed - income assets. The dividend yield of property REITs was 138BP lower than the average dividend yield of CSI Dividend stocks, and the spread between the average internal rate of return of franchise - type REITs and the ten - year Treasury yield was 226BP [1]. - On July 25, the CICC Jinhua Xinnong Industrial Park REIT was successfully listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, with a first - day gain of 28.47%. The fund's issuance scale was 3.685 billion yuan, with a 16 - year term. The underlying asset is the "Shounong Yuan Center", which is a significant addition to the public REITs market [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Secondary Market Trends - As of July 25, 2025, the closing price of the China Securities REITs (closing) Index was 860.11 points, with a weekly change of - 1.79%. It performed worse than the China Securities Convertible Bond Index (+2.14%), the CSI 300 Index (+1.69%), and the China Securities All - Bond Index (-0.49%). Year - to - date, the ranking of the price changes of major indices was: China Securities Convertible Bond Index (+11.8%) > China Securities REITs Index (+8.9%) > CSI 300 Index (+4.9%) > China Securities All - Bond Index (+0.9%). In the past year, the return rate of the China Securities REITs Index was 9.8%, with a volatility of 7.1%. The total market value of REITs increased to 204.7 billion yuan on July 25, an increase of 200 million yuan from the previous week. The average daily turnover rate for the whole week was 0.72%, up 0.17 percentage points from the previous week [2][10]. - All types of REITs closed lower. Property - type REITs and franchise - type REITs had average weekly price changes of - 1.8% and - 2.6% respectively. Among different project types, the three with the smallest average declines were park infrastructure (-0.9%), transportation infrastructure (-1.4%), and warehousing and logistics (-1.7%). The top three REITs in terms of weekly gains were Bosera Tianjin Binhai New Area Industrial Park REIT (+8.49%), China Merchants Science and Technology Innovation REIT (+3.79%), and Huatai Jiangsu Expressway REIT (+2.20%). Park - type REITs had the highest trading activity, with an average daily turnover rate of 1.7% and an trading volume accounting for 31.1% of the total REIT trading volume. The top three REITs in terms of net inflow of main funds were CICC Jinhua Xinnong REIT (88.48 million yuan), China Asset Management Shenzhen International REIT (4.95 million yuan), and Hongtu Innovation Yantian Port REIT (4.9 million yuan) [3]. 3.2 Primary Market Issuance - As of July 25, 2025, there was 1 REIT product in the declared stage, 2 in the inquiry stage, 7 in the feedback stage, 6 that had passed and were waiting for listing, and 6 first - issue products that had passed and were already listed on the exchange [25]. 3.3 Valuation Tracking - From the perspective of debt nature, as of July 25, the average annualized cash distribution rate of public REITs was 5.9%, significantly higher than the current static yields of mainstream fixed - income assets. From the perspective of equity nature, the relative net value premium rate, IRR, and P/FFO were used to judge the valuation of REITs. The relative net value premium rate reflects the relationship between the market value and fair value of the fund, similar to the PB indicator of stocks; IRR is the internal rate of return calculated by the cash - flow discount method; P/FFO is the current price divided by the cash flow generated from operations. The relative net value premium rate is a long - term indicator, while P/FFO is a short - term one [27]. - As of July 25, 2025, the dividend yield of property REITs was 138BP lower than the average dividend yield of CSI Dividend stocks, and the spread between the average internal rate of return of franchise - type REITs and the ten - year Treasury yield was 226BP [30]. 3.4 Industry News - On July 22, CITIC Construction Investment assisted the Inner Mongolia Energy Co., Ltd. of the State Power Investment Corporation to establish the "State Power Investment - Inner Mongolia Company Energy Infrastructure Investment Daban Power Generation 2025 Asset - Backed Special Plan", with a scale of 2.992 billion yuan, a subscription multiple of 2.60 times, and the issuance interest rate reaching a new low for energy central - enterprise REITs. - On July 25, the CICC Jinhua Xinnong Industrial Park REIT was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, with a first - day gain of 28.47%. It is the 69th public REIT in China, the 19th park REIT, and the first science and technology park REIT focusing on "headquarters economy" [36].
公募REITs周报(第24期):指数小幅攀升,生态环保板块领涨市场-20250706
Guoxin Securities· 2025-07-06 15:19
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - This week, the China Securities REITs Index closed up. The performance of property - type REITs was weaker than that of franchise - type REITs, with average weekly price changes of +0.9% and +1.1% respectively. The weekly price change ranking of major indices is: CSI 300 > CSI Convertible Bond Index > CSI REITs Index > CSI Aggregate Bond Index. The average daily turnover rate of REITs throughout the week increased slightly compared to the previous week. REITs of different types in the entire market showed differentiated price changes, with ecological and environmental protection, consumption, and transportation - type REITs leading the gains [1]. - As of July 4, the average annualized cash distribution rate of public - offering REITs was 6.3%, significantly higher than the current static yields of mainstream fixed - income assets. Currently, the dividend yield of property - type REITs is 106 basis points lower than the average dividend yield of CSI Dividend stocks, and the spread between the average internal rate of return of franchise - type REITs and the ten - year Treasury bond yield is 206 basis points [1]. - The infrastructure REIT project of Qingcheng Mountain - Dujiangyan Scenic Area has determined its fund manager. AVIC Fund Management Co., Ltd. won the bid, which opens a market - based financing channel for high - quality cultural and tourism assets [1][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Trends - As of July 4, 2025, the closing price of the CSI REITs (closing) Index was 887.01 points, with a weekly price change of +0.69%, performing weaker than the CSI Convertible Bond Index (+1.21%), the CSI 300 Index (+1.54%), and the CSI Aggregate Bond Index (+0.14%). Since the beginning of the year, the price change ranking of major indices is: CSI REITs (+12.3%) > CSI Convertible Bond (+7.9%) > CSI Aggregate Bond (+1.3%) > CSI 300 (+1.2%) [2][8]. - As of July 4, 2025, the one - year return rate of the CSI REITs Index was 12.7%, with a volatility of 7.0%. The return rate was lower than that of the CSI 300 Index and the CSI Convertible Bond Index but higher than that of the CSI Aggregate Bond Index. The volatility was lower than that of the CSI 300 Index and the CSI Convertible Bond Index but higher than that of the CSI Aggregate Bond Index. The total market capitalization of REITs increased to 207.9 billion yuan on July 4, an increase of 1.8 billion yuan from the previous week. The average daily turnover rate throughout the week was 0.74%, an increase of 0.12 percentage points from the previous week [2][14]. - Ecological and environmental protection, consumption, and transportation - type REITs led the gains. The average weekly price changes of property - type REITs and franchise - type REITs were +0.9% and +1.1% respectively. Among different project - type REITs, the three project types with the largest average price increases were ecological and environmental protection (+2.3%), consumption (+1.9%), and transportation (+1.3%). The top three REITs in terms of weekly price increases were CICC China Greentown Commercial REIT (+6.50%), E Fund Huayi Market REIT (+5.25%), and China Southern Asset Management Nanjing Expressway REIT (+3.91%) [1][3][19]. - Ecological and environmental protection - type REITs had the highest trading activity this week, while consumption - type REITs had the highest proportion of trading volume. The former had an average daily turnover rate of 2.2% during the period, and its trading volume accounted for 6.1% of the total REIT trading volume. The latter had an average daily turnover rate of 1.3%, and its trading volume accounted for 21.6% of the total REIT trading volume. In terms of the capital flow of different REIT products this week, the top three in terms of net inflow of main funds were CICC China Greentown Commercial REIT (56.27 million yuan), AVIC Shougang Green Energy REIT (36.34 million yuan), and CICC Yizhuang Industrial Park REIT (19.9 million yuan) [3][25][26]. Primary Market Issuance - As of July 4, 2025, there was 1 REIT product in the declared stage on the exchange, 3 in the accepted stage, 6 in the feedback - received stage, 7 that had passed the review and were waiting to be listed, and 5 first - issued products that had passed the review and were already listed [28]. Valuation Tracking - From the perspective of bond characteristics, as of July 4, the average annualized cash distribution rate of public - offering REITs was 6.3%, significantly higher than the current static yields of mainstream fixed - income assets. From the perspective of equity characteristics, the relative net - value premium rate, IRR, and P/FFO are used to judge the valuation of REITs [30]. - As of July 4, 2025, the dividend yield of property - type REITs was 106 basis points lower than the average dividend yield of CSI Dividend stocks, and the spread between the average internal rate of return of franchise - type REITs and the ten - year Treasury bond yield was 206 basis points [1][31]. Industry News - On June 30, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange showed that the Huaxia Anbo Warehouse Logistics Closed - end Infrastructure REIT was "accepted". The underlying assets of this project are 44 modern logistics centers in 24 core cities across the country, with an operating area of approximately 5.3 million square meters [37]. - On July 2, the book - building of the Southern Runze Technology Data Center REIT was completed, with a final subscription multiple of up to 167.06 times. It will be officially launched for public investors on July 14, with a price of 4.5 yuan per share and a total issuance scale of 1 billion shares, expected to raise approximately 4.5 billion yuan [37]. - On July 3, the evaluation results of the Qingcheng Mountain - Dujiangyan Scenic Area Infrastructure REIT project were announced. AVIC Fund Management Co., Ltd. won the bid to serve as the fund manager. The underlying assets of this project are the AAAAA - level national tourist scenic area Qingcheng Mountain - Dujiangyan, which received 11.7215 million tourists and achieved ticket revenue of 602 million yuan in 2024 [4][37].
国泰海通|固收:REITs估值视野:量价核心逻辑——REITs手册基础篇(二)
报告导读: 对底层资产现金流的剖析是进行 REITs 估值的基础,本文针对 REITs 估值进 行详细展开,由点到面分析当前 REITs 的估值逻辑。 REIT 估值方法主要包括三类:成本法,市场法和收益法,本质是分别基于投入成本、市场价值与未来收 益对 REIT 资产进行估值。 中国公募 REITs 政策明确要求以收益法作为基础设施项目估值的主要方法。 采用收益法契合 REIT 收益稳定性较高,强制分红等特征,也有利于倒逼提升 REITs 市场信息透明度。 ③ 经营收入到可供分配金额的调整。 REITs 要求分红需基于可供分配金额,因此虽然底层资产经营情况 是决定 REITs 估值的核心变量,但可供分配金额的调整对实际分红分派乃至估值模型的影响同样值得关 注。此外,期初预留资金与外部杠杆也会影响各期分配金额。我们将 EBITDA 与可供分配金额的差额设为 调整项,从实际项目情况来看,调整项对可供分配金额的影响普遍在 +/-20% 左右,部分项目影响超 50% ,甚至 100% 。 ④ 差补机制有利于平滑项目收入。 2024 年以来部分新发 REITs 项目带有收益分配调节机制,即通过协 议承诺保障底层资产的 ...
公募REITs周报(第12期):保障房领涨,供给再提速-2025-04-06
Guoxin Securities· 2025-04-06 03:42
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the CSI REITs index slightly declined. The performance of major indices was: CSI All - Bond > CSI REITs > CSI Convertible Bonds > CSI 300. The average daily turnover rate of CSI REITs increased slightly compared to the previous week. Affordable housing - related REITs had the highest trading activity, and affordable housing, consumption, and water conservancy REITs led the gains. The supply of public - offering REITs in the entire market accelerated again, with the successful issuance of the first "commercial - to - affordable - housing" REITs and the approval of the first affordable rental housing REITs expansion project [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Trends 3.1.1 Secondary Market Trends - As of April 3, 2025, the closing price of the CSI REITs (closing) index was 868.6 points, with a slight decline of - 0.2% for the whole week (from March 31, 2025, to April 3, 2025). It performed better than the CSI 300 index (- 1.4%) and the CSI Convertible Bonds index (- 0.3%), but worse than the CSI All - Bond index (0.8%). Since the beginning of the year, the ranking of the price changes of major indices was: CSI REITs (+ 10.0%) > CSI Convertible Bonds (+ 3.3%) > CSI All - Bond (- 0.1%) > CSI 300 (- 1.9%) [2][9]. - In the past year, the return rate of the CSI REITs index was 8.6%, and the volatility was 6.9%. The return rate was lower than that of the CSI Convertible Bonds index but higher than those of the CSI 300 index and the CSI All - Bond index. The volatility was lower than those of the CSI 300 index and the CSI Convertible Bonds index but higher than that of the CSI All - Bond index. As of April 3, 2025, the total market value of REITs was 187.1 billion yuan, an increase of 2 billion yuan from the previous week. The average daily turnover rate for the whole week was 0.83%, an increase of 0.11 percentage points from the previous week [2][14]. - Affordable housing, consumption, and water conservancy infrastructure - related REITs led the gains. As of April 3, 2025, the average weekly price change of equity - type REITs was + 0.95%, and that of concession - type REITs was + 0.4%. Among different project - type REITs, except for transportation infrastructure - related REITs, other types of REITs all rose. The three project types with the largest average increases were affordable housing (2.36%), consumption infrastructure (1.5%), and water conservancy facilities (1.39%). The top three REITs in terms of weekly price increases were Bosera Tianjin Binhai New Area Industrial Park REIT (+ 3.93%), Hongtu Innovation Shenzhen Affordable Housing REIT (+ 3.79%), and Guotai Junan Dongjiu New Economy REIT (+ 3.65%) [3][19][21]. - In terms of trading activity, affordable housing - related REITs were the most active this week, and transportation infrastructure - related REITs had the highest proportion of trading volume. The former had an average daily turnover rate of 2.3% during the period, accounting for 19.9% of the total REITs trading volume. The latter had an average daily turnover rate of 0.7%, accounting for 26.7% of the total REITs trading volume. From the perspective of the capital flow of different REITs products last week, the top three in terms of net inflow of main funds were Huaxia China Resources Commercial REIT (18.35 million yuan), Huatai - PineBridge Shanghai Real Estate Rental Housing REIT (17.18 million yuan), and CICC Xiamen Affordable Housing REIT (5.34 million yuan) [4][24][25]. 3.1.2 Primary Market Issuance - As of April 3, 2025, there were 4 REITs products in the in - inquiry stage on the exchange, 5 products that had been declared, 1 product that had been accepted, 8 products that had received feedback, 6 products that had passed and were waiting to be listed, and 1 expanded product that had passed and was already listed [27]. 3.2 Valuation Tracking - REITs have both bond and equity characteristics. From the bond - characteristic perspective, under the constraint of mandatory high - dividends, the average annualized cash distribution rate of public - offering REITs as of April 3 was 6.7%, significantly higher than the static yields of current mainstream fixed - income assets. From the equity - characteristic perspective, the relative net - value premium rate, IRR, and P/FFO are used to judge the valuation of REITs. Currently, the dividend yield of equity - type REITs is 232 BP lower than the average dividend yield of CSI Dividend stocks, and the spread between the average internal rate of return of concession - type REITs and the 10 - year Treasury yield is 258 BP [29][30]. 3.3 Industry News - On March 31, the first "commercial - to - affordable - housing" REITs was successfully issued. "Huatai - PineBridge Shanghai Real Estate Rental Housing REIT" was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, with a fundraising scale of 1.362 billion yuan, a total of 500 million shares, and an issue price of 2.724 yuan per share. This provided a new way for asset holders to revitalize existing assets. - On March 26, the expansion and issuance of Huaxia Beijing Affordable Housing REIT was approved, which was the first affordable rental housing REITs expansion project in China. After the expansion, the expected distribution rate of Huaxia Beijing Affordable Housing REIT will be further increased, and it will help form a positive cycle of "realizing existing assets + incremental investment" [4][38].