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学大教育(000526):Q3加大教师储备致利润短期承压
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-10-28 06:57
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4][11]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 2.613 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.30%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 231 million yuan, up 31.52% year-on-year [2]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 697 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.19%, but the net profit attributable to the parent company dropped to 1.43 million yuan, a decline of 89.90% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company's strong brand and nationwide teaching network position it as a leading player in the personalized education sector [4]. Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the revenue growth was primarily driven by personalized education services, aligning with the increase in contract liabilities, which grew by 22.46% year-on-year to 1.204 billion yuan, marking a quarterly high since 2023 [3]. - The decline in net profit for Q3 was attributed to increased costs from teacher recruitment, with operating costs rising by 19.51% year-on-year to 508 million yuan, leading to a decrease in gross margin by 5 percentage points to 27.17% [3]. - Sales expenses increased by 61.14% year-on-year to 69.77 million yuan, while management expenses decreased by 22.80% year-on-year to 97.41 million yuan, mainly due to reduced equity incentive costs [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 248 million yuan, 294 million yuan, and 358 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.035, 2.410, and 2.936 yuan [4]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 22, 18, and 15 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4].