Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in Guangzhou and Shenzhen is experiencing a mixed performance as the traditional peak season approaches, with signs of a potential recovery but still facing challenges due to stagnant policies and market expectations [2][6][7]. Market Performance - In Shenzhen, the new project Zhongzhou Yingxi Phase III launched 780 units with over 2,900 registrations, but did not achieve a "daylight" sale, with over 500 units sold on the opening day [3][12]. - As of February 23, Shenzhen's first-hand residential sales totaled 1,240 units, while second-hand sales reached 2,610 units, showing a significant decline compared to January [4]. - In Guangzhou, the second-hand market saw a seasonal adjustment with 2,695 transactions in the first half of February, a 55.8% month-on-month decrease, with most districts experiencing a significant drop in sales [5][14]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of new residential properties in both Guangzhou and Shenzhen remains low due to strict controls on land sales, with Guangzhou's land supply down 43% year-on-year in 2024 [15][16]. - Shenzhen's new residential supply in 2024 is projected to be the lowest in six years, with a 27.7% year-on-year decrease in supply area [16][17]. - The limited supply may lead to a stabilization of both price and volume in the market, as fewer options could make remaining properties more attractive to buyers [20][21]. Market Outlook - Despite the current challenges, some industry players believe that the traditional peak season of "golden March and silver April" could still be promising due to reduced supply and increased buyer interest [21][23]. - The second-hand market is gradually becoming more active, and with developers increasing their sales pace, new home transactions may further stimulate the second-hand market [23]. - There are expectations that upcoming policy changes could boost market sentiment and lead to increased transactions in March [23].