Core Viewpoint - The natural gas heavy truck market in China has experienced a significant decline in sales during the traditional peak seasons of March and April 2025, with a year-on-year decrease of 26% and 35% respectively, indicating a shift from growth to decline in the market [2][5][34]. Sales Performance - In April 2025, the actual sales of natural gas heavy trucks reached 17,100 units, representing a 35% year-on-year decline and a 21% decrease compared to March 2025 [5][18]. - The cumulative sales from January to April 2025 totaled 64,100 units, down 11% year-on-year, with a reduction of approximately 7,500 units compared to the same period last year [27][29]. Market Share - In April 2025, the market share of natural gas heavy trucks was dominated by five companies, with FAW Jiefang leading at 4,600 units sold, followed by China National Heavy Duty Truck Group and Dongfeng Motor Corporation with sales of 3,623 and 3,408 units respectively [20][25]. - The market share of natural gas heavy trucks in April was 24.86%, a decrease of over 5 percentage points from the previous month [9]. Regional Sales Distribution - The sales of natural gas heavy trucks were unevenly distributed across regions, with Hebei, Shanxi, Shandong, Henan, and Xinjiang accounting for a significant portion of the total sales from January to April 2025 [14][16]. - Notably, Xinjiang, Chongqing, and Beijing saw substantial year-on-year sales growth of 75%, 58%, and 219% respectively [16]. Price Influence - The price of natural gas has fluctuated, starting at around 5,300 RMB per ton in April 2024 and dropping to just over 4,000 RMB per ton before gradually increasing again. However, the impact of gas prices on the sales decline of natural gas heavy trucks is considered limited [12]. Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape shows mixed results among major players, with some companies experiencing significant declines while others, like Dongfeng and Foton, reported growth in sales [28][32]. - The market dynamics have shifted, with some companies improving their market share compared to the previous year, while others have seen declines [31][32].

Core Insights - The recent surge in second-hand housing transactions in Nanjing, with a 19.5% week-on-week increase, indicates strong market vitality despite previous fluctuations [1][4]. Group 1: Transaction Data - Nanjing's second-hand housing transactions reached 1,507 units last week, including areas like Gaochun and Lishui [1]. - Properties sized between 60-90 square meters accounted for 38% of transactions, while homes priced between 1 million to 2 million yuan made up 38.4% of total sales [3]. Group 2: Factors Behind the Increase - Recent monetary policies, including interest rate cuts and adjustments to public housing fund rates, have lowered entry barriers and costs for homebuyers, enhancing market activity [4]. - The release of pent-up demand from the "golden three and silver four" months has sustained interest in second-hand homes, particularly among young first-time buyers seeking cost-effective options [4]. - Increased confidence in the market is reflected in the stabilization of new home prices, encouraging homeowners to list their properties and prompting buyers to engage more actively [4]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The Nanjing second-hand housing market is expected to maintain a certain level of activity due to ongoing favorable policies and stable demand, although factors like inventory and land supply may pose challenges [6]. - Buyers are advised to consider location, school districts, and amenities when selecting second-hand homes, while sellers should price their properties reasonably and time their listings effectively [6].

Group 1 - The real estate market in Beijing experienced a significant surge in activity during March and April, with over 19,000 second-hand homes signed in March and more than 15,000 in April, indicating a strong market performance referred to as "golden March and silver April" [1][6] - The introduction of "special price" homes during the May Day holiday has proven effective for sales, with properties like a 140 square meter unit priced at 9.8 million yuan and a 93 square meter unit at 6.45 million yuan, showcasing competitive pricing in the market [2][3] - The overall market heat continued into April, with a reported 15,569 second-hand home transactions, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.59%, despite a month-on-month decrease of 19.05% [6][7] Group 2 - The easing of credit policies and the optimization of purchase restrictions have contributed to a recovery in buyer confidence, leading to increased demand in the housing market [6][10] - The trend of "price for volume" is expected to continue in the second-hand housing market, as inventory levels rise and sellers face pressure to reduce prices to stimulate sales [7][10] - The recent land auction activity indicates a growing interest in high-quality projects, with significant transactions such as a 12.6 billion yuan land deal in Chaoyang District, suggesting a robust outlook for future developments [9][10]

Group 1 - The Beijing second-hand housing market remains active during the "golden three silver four" period, with a total of 32,662 units signed online from March to April 2025, representing a month-on-month increase of 26.52% and a year-on-year increase of 18.19% [1] - Two significant characteristics of the market are the shortened transaction cycle for quality properties and the rising demand from suburban areas [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The so - called "Golden March and Silver April" may not reappear in the PTA market. PTA prices are expected to be range - bound in April due to high inventory and weakening demand, although the processing margin is expected to recover [8][17][42] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In March, the average PTA futures price declined. Crude oil and PX prices dropped month - on - month. The regional risk premium of crude oil disappeared, and PX followed the decline of crude oil. Despite PTA device maintenance, high inventory restricted price recovery. Although downstream demand rebounded, overall sales were not strong, resulting in limited demand support. As a result, PTA fluctuated weakly [11] 3.2 Fundamental Situation and Core Driving Force Analysis 3.2.1 PX Supply - Demand Contradiction Eases - In March, the PX - naphtha spread was around $180 - 205 per ton, and the PX price was around $850 - 901 per ton. At the beginning of the month, affected by macro factors, international oil prices were weak, PX maintenance was postponed, and PTA maintenance plans were implemented, leading to a stronger PX supply - demand contradiction and a weak PX price. Later, the macro environment changed, oil prices rose, PX cost support strengthened, and the market sentiment improved, causing PX to enter a consolidation phase. - In April, due to increased macro uncertainties and the potential OPEC+ production increase plan, the market bearish sentiment intensifies, and crude oil is expected to decline weakly, with weak cost support. The domestic PX supply - demand contradiction is expected to ease. With the arrival of the peak oil product consumption season, PX will still be boosted. It is expected that the absolute price of PX will be relatively warm in April, and the relative price will be slightly repaired [12][14][17] 3.2.2 PTA Maintenance Alleviates Supply Pressure - In March, PTA maintenance and the willingness to maintain increased, the operating rate declined slightly, but polyester procurement was poor, and the overall fundamental improvement was limited. The social inventory decreased from 5.481 million tons at the end of February to 5.377 million tons at the end of March. The processing margin was maintained at 200 - 350 yuan per ton, remaining at a low level. - In April, the PTA load has declined. According to the announced maintenance plans, there are still some devices planned for maintenance in April. It is unlikely that new PTA devices will be put into operation in the second quarter, so the PTA supply pressure is limited. Downstream, new polyester devices are being continuously put into operation. In the second quarter, the demand for polyester bottle chips increases due to the peak season of soft drinks, which is beneficial to PTA demand. However, products such as filament are under maintenance, resulting in a neutral PTA supply - demand situation [16][17] 3.2.3 Production Cut Expectations Weaken Consumption Support - As of the end of March, the inventory days of FDY, POY, DTY, and polyester staple fiber were 31.16 days, 27.74 days, 31.88 days, and 14.24 days respectively. Compared with the end of February, the inventory days increased by 0.85 days, 4.08 days, decreased by 1.6 days, and decreased by 1 day respectively. Although the downstream weaving load continued to recover, the actual order volume was limited, and the purchasing willingness was poor due to macro risks, so the inventory pressure continued. - As of the end of March, the prices of polyester bottle chips, DTY, POY, and FDY were 6,050 yuan per ton, 8,200 yuan per ton, 6,900 yuan per ton, and 7,150 yuan per ton respectively, showing a slight decline compared with the end of February. The prices of polyester bottle chips, DTY, POY, and FDY decreased by 190 yuan per ton, 200 yuan per ton, 275 yuan per ton, and 350 yuan per ton respectively. The polyester cash flow remained low, and the price volatility of polyester products decreased, mainly following the raw materials. - Currently, the physical inventory of mainstream staple fiber factories has exceeded 20 days, and there is a large amount of staple fiber social inventory. The inventory of polyester filament has reached around one - month level. The inventory accumulation is a characteristic of the entire industrial chain, and many enterprises choose to jointly cut production to support prices and profits. The weak profit of polyester bottle chips also makes the market wait - and - see sentiment strong. The weakening load of polyester products weakens the support for PTA consumption improvement, and the expected continuous destocking in April may not continue. The support of polyester for PTA has probably reached its peak and is difficult to improve [27][40] 3.3 Future Outlook - Similar to the previous analysis, in April, crude oil is expected to decline weakly, the domestic PX supply - demand contradiction is expected to ease, and PX prices are expected to be relatively warm. PTA has a spring - maintenance expectation, and the destocking expectation is strong. However, due to the expected production cut of downstream polyester, the demand support for PTA is limited. The PTA supply - demand pattern is expected to improve slightly, but the terminal textile orders are insufficient, especially the foreign trade orders are poor, making the support of PTA consumption for the market questionable. PTA processing margin is expected to recover, and the price will be range - bound due to high inventory and weakening demand [41][42]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [5] Core Views - The coal sector has shown a relative performance improvement, with a decline of 0.86% compared to a 2.29% drop in the CSI 300 index, indicating a 1.43 percentage point outperformance [7] - Domestic thermal coal prices are under pressure due to seasonal demand weakness, while overseas prices are recovering [8] - Coking coal prices are declining, but demand is gradually improving as downstream industries resume operations [9] - The report suggests that while thermal coal prices are weak, seasonal recovery in non-electric industries may offset some demand losses, leading to potential stabilization in coking coal prices [10] Summary by Sections Market Review - The coal sector's PE valuation is at 10.43 times, at the 51.96 percentile over the past decade, while the PB valuation is at 1.23 times, at the 30.59 percentile [7] Domestic and International Coal Prices - As of March 23, domestic thermal coal prices are at 680 RMB/ton, down 1.45% week-on-week, while international prices for Australian, European, and South African coal have seen slight increases [8] - Domestic coking coal prices are at 1150 RMB/ton, down 4.17% week-on-week, with international prices also declining [9] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading coal companies with high long-term contract ratios and stable operations, such as China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal, as well as undervalued coking coal companies with improving operational conditions [10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [4] Core Viewpoints - The coal sector has shown a relative performance improvement, with a decrease of 0.86% last week, outperforming the benchmark index (CSI 300) by 1.43 percentage points [6] - Domestic thermal coal prices are under pressure due to seasonal demand weakness, while overseas prices are recovering [7] - CCTD Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal market price is 680 RMB/ton, down 1.45% week-on-week [7] - Focus on companies with high long-term contract ratios and stable operations, such as China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal, as well as undervalued coking coal enterprises [9] Market Review - The coal sector's PE valuation is at 10.43 times, at the 51.96 percentile over the past decade, while the PB valuation is at 1.23 times, at the 30.59 percentile [6] - The coal sector has experienced relative returns of -17% over the past month, -10% over three months, and -21% over twelve months [5] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic thermal coal supply is tightening, with production potentially affected by safety inspections in major mining areas [7] - Coking coal prices are declining, but demand is gradually improving as downstream construction activities resume [8] - The demand for non-electric industries (like steel and chemicals) is expected to seasonally rebound, which may offset the decline in heating demand [9]

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: "Overweight" (maintained) [3] Core Viewpoints - The steel sector experienced a seasonal demand recovery, with inventory reduction continuing [6][8] - The steel price index showed mixed trends across five major steel products, while the profitability of steel mills remained stable [7] - Short-term demand recovery is expected due to seasonal factors and supportive economic policies, with a focus on high-efficiency green steel enterprises for investment value [8] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The steel sector rose by 1.48% last week (March 10-14), underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.11 percentage points [5] - The sector's PE valuation stands at 16.5 times, at the 71.4 percentile over the past decade, while the PB valuation is at 1.03 times, at the 39.8 percentile [5] Supply and Demand Data - As of March 14, the operating rate of sampled steel mills was 80.6%, up by 1.07 percentage points week-on-week, with a total iron output of 2.3065 million tons [6] - Weekly apparent consumption of five major steel products reached 8.8388 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 3.61% [6] - Total inventory of five major steel products decreased to 18.293 million tons, down by 1.69% week-on-week [6] Price and Profitability Data - The price indices for five major steel products as of March 14 were as follows: rebar at 3406 CNY/ton, wire rod at 3570 CNY/ton, medium-thick plate at 3599 CNY/ton, hot-rolled coil at 3488 CNY/ton, and cold-rolled coil at 4209 CNY/ton [7] - The profitability rate of 247 sampled steel enterprises remained stable at 53% [7] Investment Recommendations - The combination of seasonal demand recovery and economic growth policies is expected to support steel prices [8] - The industry is anticipated to accelerate its transition towards high-end and green production, making high-efficiency green steel companies more attractive for investment [8] - Long-term investment value is seen in leading companies with scale advantages as the industry undergoes high-quality development and regional capacity consolidation [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1]. Core Views - The aluminum industry is experiencing a significant inventory reduction, with a focus on the upcoming peak demand season. The report suggests that the combination of inventory depletion and rising prices may lead to a favorable investment environment [12]. Summary by Sections Inventory - As of March 13, 2025, domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory stood at 862,000 tons, reflecting a decrease of 6,000 tons from the beginning of the week. The inventory reduction trend is becoming clearer, with the traditional peak demand season approaching [8][12]. Production - In February 2025, electrolytic aluminum production was 3.34 million tons, a decrease of 357,000 tons month-on-month and a year-on-year decline of 222,000 tons. Conversely, alumina production was 6.935 million tons, showing a month-on-month decrease but a year-on-year increase of 215,000 tons [55][58]. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - Key companies in the aluminum sector include: - Shenhuo Co., Ltd. (Stock Code: 000933.SZ) with a "Buy" rating - China Hongqiao Group (Stock Code: 1378.HK) with a "Buy" rating - Tianshan Aluminum (Stock Code: 002532.SZ) with a "Buy" rating - Aluminum Corporation of China (Stock Code: 601600.SH) with a "Buy" rating - Yunnan Aluminum (Stock Code: 000807.SZ) with a "Buy" rating - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025 are as follows: - Shenhuo Co., Ltd.: 2.56 CNY - China Hongqiao Group: 2.26 CNY - Tianshan Aluminum: 0.97 CNY - Aluminum Corporation of China: 0.86 CNY - Yunnan Aluminum: 1.60 CNY [5]. Price Trends - As of March 14, 2025, the LME three-month aluminum closing price was $2,688.5 per ton, a slight decrease from the previous week. The Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price was 20,990 CNY per ton, reflecting an increase of 155 CNY week-on-week [23][24]. Demand - Demand is showing signs of recovery, particularly in the downstream processing industries. The opening rates for aluminum processing sectors are generally improving, with notable increases in demand from the new energy vehicle and battery sectors [8][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating on non-ferrous metal stocks, particularly under supply constraints, anticipating strong performance in the upcoming months [2]. Core Insights - The suspension of mining operations by Alphamin Resources in the Democratic Republic of Congo is expected to shift the tin supply-demand balance from slight surplus to slight shortage in 2025 [3][8]. - The report highlights a significant increase in aluminum demand and a reduction in inventory levels, indicating a positive trend for aluminum prices and profitability in the sector [7][8]. - The report emphasizes the potential for price increases in strategic minor metals such as tin, antimony, and cobalt due to supply constraints and rising demand [8]. Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metal sector consists of 126 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 30,247.68 billion [4]. - Recent performance metrics show a 6.3% increase over the past month and a 34.0% increase over the past six months for the sector [5]. - The report notes that copper inventories have reached a turning point, with ongoing supply-demand conflicts in the mining and smelting sectors [7]. Aluminum Industry Insights - Domestic aluminum ingot social inventory has decreased to 869,000 tons, reflecting a 1.5% reduction week-on-week, indicating improving demand [7]. - The report forecasts continued improvement in aluminum fundamentals as the peak season approaches, with expectations of profit recovery in the electrolytic aluminum industry [7]. Copper Industry Insights - The report indicates a decrease in domestic electrolytic copper inventory to 352,900 tons, down by 18,000 tons week-on-week, suggesting tightening supply conditions [7]. - The report suggests that the copper market is experiencing heightened tensions between mining and smelting operations, which could impact future pricing [7]. Minor Metals Insights - The report anticipates a significant increase in tin production from Alphamin, with a projected output of 20,000 tons in 2025, which could be affected by the recent suspension of operations [8]. - The report recommends focusing on companies with clear growth potential in tin and antimony production, such as Xingye Silver Tin and Hunan Gold [8].