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迎驾贡酒(603198):2024年年报及2025年一季报点评:省外普酒承压Q1净利率创新高
Minsheng Securities· 2025-04-30 06:58
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [6][8]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 73.44 billion and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 25.89 billion in 2024, representing year-on-year growth of 8.46% and 13.45% respectively. However, Q4 2024 saw a decline in revenue and net profit by 5.00% and 7.88% respectively, while Q1 2025 experienced a further decline of 12.35% in revenue and 9.25% in net profit [3][4]. - The company’s main liquor segment generated 70.02 billion in revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 9.39%, driven by a volume increase of 0.14% and a price increase of 9.24%. The gross margin improved to 76.81%, up by 2.73 percentage points [4]. - The high-end liquor segment (including cave-aged and gold/silver star products) achieved revenue of 57.13 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 13.76%, with a volume increase of 9.31% and a price increase of 4.07%. The gross margin for this segment rose to 81.07% [4]. - The company’s net profit margin reached a record high of 40.47% in Q1 2025, with gross margins of 76.49% [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 73.44 billion and a net profit of 25.89 billion, with respective growth rates of 8.46% and 13.45%. The Q1 2025 revenue and net profit were 20.47 billion and 8.29 billion, reflecting declines of 12.35% and 9.25% year-on-year [3][7]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 73.94%, with a projected increase to 75.15% in 2025 [11]. Product Segmentation - The high-end liquor segment accounted for 81.58% of the main liquor revenue in 2024, while the ordinary liquor segment saw a revenue decline of 6.53% to 12.90 billion [4][6]. - The company’s revenue from the domestic market reached 50.93 billion, up by 12.75%, while revenue from outside the province was 19.09 billion, a modest increase of 1.31% [4]. Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 26 billion, 28 billion, and 30 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with growth rates of 1.7%, 5.9%, and 8.8% [6][10]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 13 for 2025, projected to decrease to 12 by 2027 [6][10].