Q&A 本次专题报告为什么选择在当前时点发布，核心研究框架与结论是什么？ 本次专题在前期市场已广泛关注实验用猴与临床前 CRO 的基础上，重点补足了 对"实验用猴供需关系及其周期性"的系统分析。研究框架围绕三点展开：第 一，重新梳理实验用猴供需缺口的形成机制与未来演化；第二，结合猴价从 "几千元/只"上行至"20 万出头/只"、再回落至"5 万~6 万/只"并于当前 回到"十几万/只"的周期波动，判断 2026 年猴价存在创新高的可能性；第三， 在下游需求复苏与早研需求景气度提升背景下，临床前 CRO 被判断为 2026 年 CRO 板块中最具确定性与弹性的细分方向，覆盖药明康德、康龙化成、美迪西、 昭衍新药、益诺思等公司。 实验猴供需缺口大，持续看好临床前 CRO20260302 摘要 全球实验用猴供需持续紧张，2024 年中国和美国分别存在近万只和 2-3 万只的缺口。中国曾是主要出口国，但疫情后暂停进出口，加剧国内供 需矛盾，猴价经历大幅波动。 国内实验猴种群老龄化严重，2023 年繁殖母猴中 8 岁以上占比高达 80%，直接压制繁育产能。2019-2022 年高猴价导致种猴大量流失， 且食蟹猴繁育周期 ...

百奥赛图-B（2315.HK）2025 年业绩快报点评 海外拓展+国内回暖驱动主业增长，全年业绩表现靓丽 glmszqdatemark [盈利预测与财务指标 Table_Forcast] 风险提示：海外经营风险，抗体开发不及预期风险，模式动物品系迭代风险。 | 单位/百万人民币 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 980 | 1,379 | 1,849 | 2,422 | | 增长率（%） | 36.8 | 40.6 | 34.1 | 31.0 | | 归母净利润 | 34 | 173 | 335 | 528 | | 增长率（%） | 108.8 | 416.4 | 93.3 | 57.7 | | EPS | 0.08 | 0.39 | 0.75 | 1.18 | | P/E | 622 | 120 | 62 | 40 | | P/B | 25.0 | 9.7 | 8.4 | 6.9 | 资料来源：Wind，国联民生证券研究所预测（注：股价为 2026 年 02 月 27 日收盘价,汇率 1HKD ...

[Table_Author] | 分析师 | 张金洋 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书： S0590525120012 | | | 邮箱： | zhangjinyang@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 | 杨芳 | | 执业证书： S0590525120006 | | | 邮箱： | fangyang@glms.com.cn | 相对走势 百奥赛图-B（2315.HK）2025 年业绩快报点评 海外拓展+国内回暖驱动主业增长，全年业绩表现靓丽 glmszqdatemark [盈利预测与财务指标 Table_Forcast] 风险提示：海外经营风险，抗体开发不及预期风险，模式动物品系迭代风险。 | 单位/百万人民币 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 980 | 1,379 | 1,849 | 2,422 | | 增长率（%） | 36.8 | 40.6 | 34.1 | 31.0 | | 归母净利润 | 34 | 173 | 335 | 528 | | 增长率（%） | 108 ...

Core Viewpoint - Baosai Tu-B (02315) has shown a significant increase in stock price, rising over 6% following the release of its 2025 performance forecast, indicating strong growth potential in revenue and net profit [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company forecasts a revenue of approximately 1.369 billion to 1.389 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 39.61% to 41.65% [1] - Expected net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be between 162 million to 182 million yuan, reflecting a substantial year-on-year increase of 384.26% to 443.88% [1] Group 2: Business Drivers - Guolian Minsheng Securities highlights the company's innovative advantages in model animals and preclinical CRO business, as well as the strengths of its antibody platform supported by the "Thousand Mice, Ten Thousand Antibodies" initiative [1] - Since 2025, the company has established external licensing agreements with several leading domestic and international pharmaceutical companies, and multiple pipelines have received IND approvals, which are expected to contribute to milestone payments and further revenue growth [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the benchmark index [2][8]. Core Insights - The company's main business is experiencing high growth driven by a robust antibody platform, which provides future flexibility and potential for expansion [1][8]. - For 2025, the company is projected to achieve revenue between 1.369 billion and 1.389 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 39.61% to 41.65%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be between 162 million and 182 million RMB, with a significant year-on-year increase of 384.26% to 443.88% [8]. - The report highlights the strong performance of the innovative animal models and preclinical CRO business, which are key drivers of revenue growth. The company has also made significant advancements in its antibody library and strategic partnerships, enhancing its competitive edge in the market [8]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 1.376 billion RMB in 2025, 1.845 billion RMB in 2026, and 2.416 billion RMB in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 40.4%, 34.1%, and 31.0% respectively [2][9]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 167 million RMB in 2025, 324 million RMB in 2026, and 530 million RMB in 2027, with growth rates of 399.3%, 93.3%, and 63.6% respectively [2][9]. - The report provides a detailed breakdown of the company's financial ratios, including a projected P/E ratio of 105 for 2025, decreasing to 33 by 2027, indicating improving valuation metrics over time [2][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook with expected stock price appreciation of over 15% relative to the benchmark index [2][11]. Core Insights - The company is projected to achieve significant revenue growth driven by its core business and antibody platform, with expected revenues of RMB 1.376 billion in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 40.4% [2][8]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to reach RMB 167 million in 2025, reflecting a staggering growth rate of 399.3% compared to the previous year [2][8]. - The company has made substantial advancements in its animal model and preclinical CRO business, which are key drivers of revenue growth, particularly in the first half of 2025 [8]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 980 million, RMB 1.376 billion, RMB 1.845 billion, and RMB 2.416 billion, respectively, with growth rates of 36.8%, 40.4%, 34.1%, and 31.0% [2][9]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow from RMB 34 million in 2024 to RMB 530 million in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 108.8%, 399.3%, 93.3%, and 63.6% [2][9]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from RMB 0.08 in 2024 to RMB 1.19 in 2027, indicating strong profitability growth [2][9]. Business Developments - The company has successfully expanded its humanized mouse model offerings, launching over 400 new models in 2025, which enhances its technological barriers and supports its goal of becoming a global hub for new drug development [8]. - Strategic partnerships have been established with leading pharmaceutical companies, including a global licensing agreement with BeiGene and an antibody licensing deal with Merck, which are expected to contribute to long-term revenue growth [8].

Core Insights - The CRO industry in China is experiencing significant growth, with the market size expected to expand from 90 billion yuan in 2021 to 126 billion yuan by 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28%, which is substantially higher than the global average of 10% [13][26] - The industry is characterized by a clear competitive landscape, with WuXi AppTec as the dominant player, achieving revenue exceeding 20 billion yuan, while other key players include Kanglong Chemical, Tigermed, and Kelun Pharmaceutical [17][20] Industry Overview - Contract Research Organizations (CROs) are specialized entities that undertake drug development responsibilities on behalf of pharmaceutical companies, helping to reduce costs and risks while ensuring compliance [1] - The CRO industry is divided into preclinical and clinical segments, with preclinical CROs focusing on drug discovery and safety evaluations, while clinical CROs handle clinical trials and data management [1] Industry Development History - The CRO industry in China began in 1996 with the establishment of the first joint venture, and has evolved from a lack of formal organizations to a competitive landscape dominated by local leaders [9] - The industry has undergone significant changes, including the implementation of Good Clinical Practice (GCP) in 2003 and the introduction of the Marketing Authorization Holder (MAH) system, which has facilitated the growth of CRO services [11] Market Demand and Growth - The number of New Drug Applications (NDA) in China has been increasing, from 210 in 2021 to an expected 320 by 2024, driving demand for CRO services [14] - The global CRO market is projected to grow from 71 billion USD in 2021 to 90 billion USD by 2024, driven by increased healthcare demands due to aging populations and the COVID-19 pandemic [13] Competitive Landscape - The competitive structure of the Chinese CRO industry is categorized into three tiers, with WuXi AppTec leading the first tier, followed by Kanglong Chemical and Tigermed in the second tier, and smaller firms in the third tier [17] - Most companies are diversifying their services to include both CRO and CDMO (Contract Development and Manufacturing Organization) capabilities, enhancing operational efficiency [20] Regional Market Dynamics - The Yangtze River Delta region dominates the CRO market in China, accounting for approximately 43% of the market share, followed by the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region at 23% and the Pearl River Delta at 19% [23] Future Outlook - The Chinese CRO market is expected to continue its growth trajectory, potentially exceeding 144 billion yuan by 2028, supported by favorable policies and increasing demand for innovative therapies [26] - Despite challenges such as rising compliance costs and market saturation, the overall outlook remains positive, with expectations of sustained double-digit growth over the next five years [26]

Core Viewpoint - Guolian Minsheng Securities initiates coverage on Baiao Saitu (02315) with a "Buy" rating, highlighting the robust growth across its three main business segments and the positive impact of the "Thousand Mice and Ten Thousand Antibodies" initiative on financial performance [1] Group 1: Model Animals - The company dominates the humanized mouse market with over 1,700 strains, contributing significantly to revenue, with sales and licensing expected to generate 257 million yuan (94% of revenue) by H1 2025 [1] - The sales of model animals are projected to grow at a CAGR of 51.6% from 2022 to 2024, with increasing customer repurchase rates [1] - By 2024, overseas sales of model animals are expected to account for 56.4%, with a mature U.S. subsidiary facilitating order acquisition [1] Group 2: Preclinical CRO Services - The preclinical CRO services segment, which extends from model animals, has an overseas revenue share of 79%, benefiting from a recovering investment environment [2] - The pharmacology and efficacy team operates across Beijing, Haimen, and the U.S., having completed over 6,350 drug evaluation projects for approximately 950 global partners by H1 2025 [2] - Revenue for this segment reached 155 million yuan in H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of over 90% due to increased client numbers driven by industry growth [2] Group 3: Antibody Molecule Transfer/Authorization - The revenue model based on upfront payments, milestones, and sales sharing allows for significant revenue growth as pipelines advance [3] - The "Thousand Mice and Ten Thousand Antibodies" initiative has created a vast array of antibody combinations, reducing R&D time and uncertainty for pharmaceutical companies [3] - By H1 2025, the company has signed 61 transfer/authorization/co-development projects with renowned pharmaceutical firms, with a projected CAGR of 58.3% for this segment from 2022 to 2024 [3]

Core Viewpoint - Guolian Minsheng Securities initiates coverage on Baiaosaitu (02315) with a "recommended" rating, highlighting the company's three major business segments experiencing high growth and industry prosperity, alongside significant financial relief from fundraising efforts as the "Thousand Mice and Ten Thousand Antibodies" plan achieves milestones [1] Group 1: Model Animals - The company dominates the humanized mouse market with over 1,700 strains, contributing significantly to core profits, with a projected sales revenue of 257 million yuan from humanized mice sales and licensing by H1 2025, accounting for 94% of revenue [1] - The sales CAGR for model animals is expected to be 51.6% from 2022 to 2024, with increasing customer repurchase rates [1] - By 2024, overseas sales of model animals are projected to account for 56.4%, with a mature U.S. subsidiary facilitating rapid order acquisition [1] Group 2: Preclinical CRO Services - The preclinical CRO services segment, which extends from model animals, has an overseas revenue share of 79%, with strong growth certainty amid a recovering investment environment [2] - The pharmacology and efficacy team operates across Beijing, Haimen, and the U.S., having completed over 6,350 drug evaluation projects for approximately 950 global partners by H1 2025 [2] - Revenue for this segment reached 155 million yuan in H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of over 90%, driven by industry prosperity and a significant increase in client numbers [2] Group 3: Antibody Molecule Transfer/Authorization - The revenue model based on upfront payments, milestones, and sales sharing allows for stepwise revenue growth as pipelines advance, significantly reducing uncertainty for pharmaceutical companies [3] - The "Thousand Mice and Ten Thousand Antibodies" plan has created a vast array of antibody formats, positioning the company as a potential global source of new drug development [3] - By H1 2025, the company has signed 61 transfer/authorization/co-development projects with renowned pharmaceutical companies, with a projected CAGR of 58.3% for this segment from 2022 to 2024 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Zhaoyan New Drug (06127) has risen over 5%, currently trading at 22.38 HKD with a transaction volume of 116 million HKD, driven by a recovery in demand for preclinical CRO clients and a tight supply of experimental monkeys [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Demand for preclinical CRO services is recovering, particularly for new technology platforms such as large molecules (multi-antibodies, ADC), small nucleic acids, peptides, and cell gene therapies, which require macaques for safety evaluation tests [1] - The price of experimental macaques has increased significantly, with 3-5 year old macaques now priced at 140,000 RMB each, indicating a supply-demand imbalance in the market [1] Group 2: Financial Implications - According to estimates from Founder Securities, if the average price of experimental macaques is accounted for at 84,900 RMB each in 2024 and increases to 140,000 RMB by Q4 2025, the estimated new fair value contribution for Zhaoyan New Drug in 2025 could be approximately 220 million RMB, based on a known supply of 23,200 macaques and an estimated output rate of 17% [1]