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海内外CXO复盘:从短期、中期、长期维度看中国CXO的全球竞争力
Guoxin Securities· 2025-08-04 03:40
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the CXO industry is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Insights - The CXO index has increased by over 50% in the past year due to the easing of geopolitical risks, recovery in investment, and the digestion of high pandemic baselines [2] - Chinese CXO companies are analyzed from short-term, medium-term, and long-term perspectives to understand their global competitiveness [2] - Major players in the large molecule CDMO sector include WuXi Biologics and WuXi AppTec, with over 70% of their revenue coming from overseas [2] - The small molecule CDMO sector shows strong recovery in domestic companies, with significant order growth and a favorable competitive landscape [2] - Clinical and preclinical CROs are currently in an adjustment phase, with domestic order prices stabilizing but showing no significant recovery [2] Summary by Sections Large Molecule CDMO - Short-term performance shows high growth with competition from Japan, South Korea, and Europe [2] - Medium-term order growth is led by South Korean companies like Samsung Biologics, indicating intense competition for Chinese firms [2] - Long-term capital expenditures remain high, reflecting confidence in future demand [2] Small Molecule CDMO - Domestic companies are recovering from pandemic-related performance dips, with overall growth expected in 2025 [2] - Order growth is robust, with WuXi AppTec's orders increasing by 47% year-on-year by the end of 2024 [2] - Long-term capital expenditures show divergence, with some leaders like WuXi AppTec expected to continue increasing investments [2] Clinical/Preclinical CRO - Both domestic and international CROs are in an adjustment period, with 2022-2023 investment cooling reflected in 2024 performance [2] - Medium-term order volumes and values are beginning to show growth, while international orders remain stable [2] - Long-term capital expenditures vary among companies, indicating potential supply-demand mismatches in the short term [2] Emerging Business Opportunities - Rapid development in new molecular businesses such as peptides and oligonucleotides is expected to open up growth opportunities in the CXO sector [3] - Generic drug CROs are actively pursuing innovative transformations to seek new growth points [3]