Investment Rating - The investment rating for the CXO industry is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Insights - The CXO index has increased by over 50% in the past year due to the easing of geopolitical risks, recovery in investment, and the digestion of high pandemic baselines [2] - Chinese CXO companies are analyzed from short-term, medium-term, and long-term perspectives to understand their global competitiveness [2] - Major players in the large molecule CDMO sector include WuXi Biologics and WuXi AppTec, with over 70% of their revenue coming from overseas [2] - The small molecule CDMO sector shows strong recovery in domestic companies, with significant order growth and a favorable competitive landscape [2] - Clinical and preclinical CROs are currently in an adjustment phase, with domestic order prices stabilizing but showing no significant recovery [2] Summary by Sections Large Molecule CDMO - Short-term performance shows high growth with competition from Japan, South Korea, and Europe [2] - Medium-term order growth is led by South Korean companies like Samsung Biologics, indicating intense competition for Chinese firms [2] - Long-term capital expenditures remain high, reflecting confidence in future demand [2] Small Molecule CDMO - Domestic companies are recovering from pandemic-related performance dips, with overall growth expected in 2025 [2] - Order growth is robust, with WuXi AppTec's orders increasing by 47% year-on-year by the end of 2024 [2] - Long-term capital expenditures show divergence, with some leaders like WuXi AppTec expected to continue increasing investments [2] Clinical/Preclinical CRO - Both domestic and international CROs are in an adjustment period, with 2022-2023 investment cooling reflected in 2024 performance [2] - Medium-term order volumes and values are beginning to show growth, while international orders remain stable [2] - Long-term capital expenditures vary among companies, indicating potential supply-demand mismatches in the short term [2] Emerging Business Opportunities - Rapid development in new molecular businesses such as peptides and oligonucleotides is expected to open up growth opportunities in the CXO sector [3] - Generic drug CROs are actively pursuing innovative transformations to seek new growth points [3]

Group 1 - Domestic leading CXO companies have recently announced strong growth in their Q2 performance, attracting attention to pharmaceutical-related ETFs [1] - The Kexin Pharmaceutical ETF (588860) has shown active trading, with an average daily turnover of 22.46 million yuan since July [1] - The management fee for Kexin Pharmaceutical ETF is 0.45%, and the custody fee is 0.07%, making it the lowest among ETFs tracking the Shanghai Stock Exchange Science and Technology Innovation Board Biopharmaceutical Index [1] Group 2 - The Kexin Pharmaceutical ETF closely tracks the Shanghai Stock Exchange Science and Technology Innovation Board Biopharmaceutical Index, which includes 50 large-cap companies in the biopharmaceutical and biomedical engineering sectors [1] - As of July 29, the biopharmaceutical index covers 74.6% of the chemical pharmaceuticals and medical devices industries [1] - The introduction of the "market value + R&D" listing standard on the Science and Technology Innovation Board has significantly aided innovative pharmaceutical companies in overcoming funding bottlenecks and accelerating R&D results [1] Group 3 - Overseas CXO leaders have reported stable R&D conditions and slightly raised their annual performance guidance for 2025 [2] - The CXO industry is transitioning from a recovery phase to a performance inflection point, primarily driven by overseas revenue [2] - With a more favorable external environment and the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle, the CXO sector is expected to experience a comprehensive recovery due to ongoing global innovation in drug development and supportive domestic policies [2]

Macro and Strategy Research - The US core PCE in May slightly exceeded expectations, primarily driven by core services, while household income saw its largest decline in nearly a year due to reduced government transfers, impacting consumer spending negatively [2][3] - The manufacturing PMI in June remains in contraction territory, indicating cautious production outlooks among businesses due to insufficient orders and accelerating inflation expectations [2] - In Europe, inflation data showed a slight rebound driven by services, and the unemployment rate has slightly increased, which may influence ECB decisions amid ongoing US-EU tariff negotiations [3] Fixed Income Research - The June manufacturing PMI showed improvements in both domestic and external demand, but July's manufacturing sentiment may be constrained by weather factors [5] - After the quarter transition, the funding environment has turned more relaxed, with DR007 dropping below 1.50%, marking a new low for the year [5] - The issuance of bonds in the primary market slowed down, with a total issuance of 56 bonds amounting to 335 billion yuan, reflecting a significant drop in new local special bond issuance in early July [5] Industry Research - In May, the healthcare CPI rose by 0.3% year-on-year, while the pharmaceutical manufacturing PPI fell by 2.0% year-on-year, indicating challenges in the pharmaceutical sector [8] - The pharmaceutical sector saw a slight increase in the stock market, with the SW pharmaceutical industry PE ratio at 27.81 times, representing a 143% premium over the CSI 300 [9] - Recent policies have been introduced to support the pharmaceutical industry, including measures to optimize clinical trial reviews and approvals for innovative drugs, which are expected to enhance the sector's growth [10][11] - The recent approval of the first GCG/GLP-1 dual receptor agonist for weight control by domestic companies highlights the increasing innovation capabilities within China's pharmaceutical sector [10][11]