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化妆品医美行业周报:提振内需消费,预计国货美妆竞争格局进一步优化-20250413
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-04-13 13:45
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the cosmetics and medical beauty industry, highlighting the potential for domestic brands to gain market share and improve competitive dynamics [4]. Core Insights - The domestic beauty market is expected to see an optimization in competitive dynamics, driven by a rise in domestic consumption and a retreat of international brands due to increasing geopolitical uncertainties [9][10]. - The cosmetics and medical beauty sector outperformed the market during the period from April 3 to April 11, 2025, with the Shenwan Beauty Care Index declining by 2.5%, which is better than the Shenwan A Index's decline of 1.9 percentage points [5][6]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The cosmetics and medical beauty sector showed resilience, with key indices performing better than the overall market, indicating a positive trend for domestic brands [5][6]. - The report notes that the retail sales growth for cosmetics in January and February 2025 was 4.4%, outperforming the overall retail sales growth of 4.0% [23]. Market Trends - According to Euromonitor data, the market for domestic skincare and makeup brands is on the rise, with significant improvements in market share for brands like Proya and Natural Hall, which have entered the top ten in market share [9][35]. - The report anticipates that domestic brands will continue to benefit from the trend of rising domestic consumption, especially as international brands face challenges [10][35]. Company Performance Forecasts - For Q1 2025, several companies are expected to report positive growth: - Up Beauty Co. is projected to see a revenue and net profit increase of 10% year-on-year [11]. - Marubi is expected to achieve a revenue increase of 40% and a net profit increase of 35% [11]. - Proya is forecasted to have a revenue increase of 8% and a net profit increase of 10% [11]. - The report highlights that companies like Giant Biological and Mao Geping are also expected to see significant growth, with revenue and net profit both projected to increase by 40% and 25% respectively [11]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong brand matrices and high growth potential, such as Up Beauty Co., Proya, and Marubi, which are well-positioned to leverage the e-commerce boom [14]. - It also suggests keeping an eye on companies like Shanghai Jahwa and Betaini, which are expected to perform well in the upcoming quarters [14]. Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the entry of four prominent researchers into Proya, indicating a strong focus on technological innovation and talent development within the company [26]. - The competitive landscape in the medical beauty sector is evolving, with new products and innovations expected to drive growth and market share for companies like Jinbo Biological and Huaxi Biological [29][30].