Core Viewpoint - The spring market excitement for 2026 has partially shifted to January, with a round of growth style realization before the festival, combined with regulatory easing and significant ETF outflows. It is expected that the overall index in February will mainly fluctuate, with a stronger performance anticipated after the festival. In this environment, a "structure-first, index-second" approach may be more suitable [1][8]. Group 1: Investment Focus Areas - **Technology Growth: AI + Humanoid Robots**: Focus on midstream components (gear reducers, servo motors, sensors, actuators), core materials, and some main body manufacturers. The resonance between the Spring Festival Gala and overseas world model progress may lead to a shift from "event-driven" to "scene landing" throughout the year. The computing chain includes storage chips, optical modules, PCB/IC substrates, and data center distribution and liquid cooling in power equipment, directly supporting the capital expenditure expansion of overseas cloud vendors. It is recommended to focus on large-cap leaders and some high-growth niche leaders while controlling overall valuation and position concentration to prevent short-term crowded trades and overseas volatility-induced pullbacks [2][9]. - **Cyclical Price Increases: Oil, Petrochemicals + Non-ferrous Metals + Building Materials/Chemicals**: Due to the rebound in oil prices and bulk commodity prices, marginal improvement in PPI, and the rhythm of the "14th Five-Year Plan" infrastructure commencement, it is suggested to pay attention to oil, petrochemicals, and oil and gas services. Additionally, focus on non-ferrous metals like copper and aluminum, steel building materials, and some chemical products with more sustainable price increases [3][10]. - **High Dividend Yield: Banks + Energy + Telecom/Public Utilities**: Before the festival, A-shares showed a clear preference for dividend and defensive sectors due to external disturbances and regulatory easing, with banks and food and beverage sectors being favored. After the festival, it may be beneficial to continue using high-dividend sectors like banks, energy, telecom, and public utilities as a base, which can hedge against overseas volatility and geopolitical risks while providing stable absolute returns in the context of macroeconomic stabilization and strong dividend yield and valuation attractiveness [4][11]. - **Domestic Consumption: Automotive Chain + Home Appliances + Travel Consumption**: Supported by the old-for-new policy and Spring Festival consumption data, the automotive and automotive electronics, home appliances, and white goods components benefit from the old-for-new policy and sales recovery. In the context of rising external demand and tariff uncertainties, these consumption directions, which are mainly driven by domestic demand and are policy-friendly, may exhibit both defensive and offensive characteristics [5][12].

Group 1 - The A-share market is currently experiencing a clear risk-averse sentiment and structural differentiation, with funds favoring high-dividend, low-valuation, and defensive consumption sectors, while technology and cyclical sectors continue to adjust [1][2] - The market is showing significant structural differentiation, with defensive sectors acting as a "safe haven" for funds, leading to a notable decline in trading activity and a shift of capital from high-valuation technology and cyclical sectors to more stable assets [1][2] - The upcoming Chinese New Year is expected to influence market behavior, with historical trends indicating a preference for high-dividend and defensive sectors before the holiday, while post-holiday, the market may favor small-cap and growth styles [2][3] Group 2 - The current industry structure is transitioning from a traditional factor-driven growth model to a new productivity development model centered on technological innovation [2] - Investors are weighing the strategies of "holding stocks during the holiday" versus "holding cash for safety," with the former focusing on potential policy catalysts and liquidity, while the latter aims to avoid short-term volatility [3] - Post-holiday, the market is expected to shift focus back to growth sectors with industry catalysts and earnings certainty, driven by policy catalysts in February and earnings disclosures in March [3][4] Group 3 - Earnings forecasts indicate a shift in the logic of A-share market growth for 2026, with profitability expected to take precedence over valuation, highlighting structural opportunities in technology manufacturing and cyclical industries benefiting from price increases [4] - Two main investment themes are suggested: one focusing on the improvement of supply-demand dynamics and industry profitability, and the other on new productivity areas such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and renewable energy [4] - The overall market tone for 2026 is expected to remain bullish, with a focus on technological innovation and profitability recovery, supported by domestic consumption and overseas expansion as auxiliary themes [4]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the potential for the hydrogen energy industry to enter an accelerated development phase due to policy support and market demand, highlighting related stocks such as Jiadian Co., Ltd. and Houp Co., Ltd. [5] - The report notes advancements in AI model lightweighting and hardware computing power, suggesting that the AI sector may experience significant growth, with related stocks including Rongqi Technology and Crystal Optoelectronics [5] - The demand for computing power driven by Seedance 2.0 is expected to benefit the computing hardware infrastructure, with related stocks such as Chengdi Xiangjiang and Wangsu Science and Technology [5] Industry Dynamics - The central bank is supporting more private technology enterprises and private equity investment institutions to issue bonds for financing [4] - The central bank continues to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, flexibly utilizing various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions [4] Company Focus - Fule New Materials has chosen a resistive technology route based on its high cost-performance advantages [6] - Zhongbai Group is focusing on reducing losses and has developed corresponding goals and strategies for 2026 [6] - Shui Jing Fang is gradually advancing the market launch and optimization of serialized products [6] - Kelun Electronics has signed a letter of intent regarding the sale of assets related to the Guangming Smart Energy Industrial Park [6] Market Overview - On February 10, the market experienced narrow fluctuations, with mixed performance among the three major stock indices; the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4128.37 points, up 0.13% [7] - The report indicates a prevailing pessimistic sentiment in the A-share market, attributed to concerns over financial conditions tightening due to the "rate cut + balance sheet reduction" stance, as well as significant capital expenditures by major US tech companies [7] - Despite the cautious consensus, the report maintains a positive outlook on the Chinese market, recommending holding stocks through the holiday and focusing on emerging technologies, value sectors, and large financials [7]

目 录 | | 每日报告精选（2026-02-06 09:00——2026-02-09 15:00） 3 | | | --- | --- | --- | |  | 宏观周报：《春节效应延续》2026-02-08 3 | | |  | 宏观周报：《美国：制造业景气度超季节回升》2026-02-08 3 | | |  | 策略周报：《坚定信心，持股过节》2026-02-08 3 | | |  | 策略专题报告：《地方两会聚焦扩内需与强科技》2026-02-08 4 | | |  | 策略观察：《成交活跃度下降，万得全 估值微跌》2026-02-08 5 A | | |  | 行业跟踪报告：餐饮《千问加码外卖补贴，行业价格战趋缓》2026-02-09 6 | | |  | 行业跟踪报告：钢铁《淡季维持累库趋势，但库存处于历史低位》2026-02-09 7 | | |  | 行业跟踪报告：有色金属《关注企稳后的布局机会》2026-02-09 7 | | |  | 行业跟踪报告：钢铁《钢铁行业周报数据库 20260208》2026-02-09 8 | | |  | 行业周报：金融《建议左侧增持非银板 ...

报告导读： 海外金融紧缩预期边际改善，国内政策重心正转向内需主导。恐慌性抛售后， 中国股市已至关键位置，建议持股过节。新兴科技是主线，价值也会有春天。 投 资 要 点 ▶大势研判：持股过节。 近期中国股市波动较大，并出现单日恐慌式抛售，市场悲观情绪弥漫。究其原因：沃什"降息+缩表"倾向引发金融条件紧缩担忧、美股科 技龙头巨额资本开支扰动与前期A股权重ETF持续被抛售交织助推了交易波动和信心走弱，加之临近春节长假观望情绪升温，客观上股市微观结构受到负面冲击。 与当下谨慎共识不同的是，国泰海通策略坚决看好中国市场前景，建议持股过节：1）全球市场正快速计入美联储潜在的鹰派货币立场，但从路径角度沃什的降息 立场更鸽派和确定。与此同时，贝森特澄清强美元政策并非指干预汇率，海外金融紧缩预期边际改善。2）中国政府的政策重心正转向内需主导，并作为首要任 务，有望提振中国经济前景与资产回报。3）证监会近期再次强调"全力巩固资本市场稳中向好势头"，A股上市公司亦掀起回购热潮。我们认为，中国股市将逐步 企稳与展开春季行情，眼下是增持良机。 ▶ 重要的边际：内需政策提速，价值迎来春天。 过去五年，中国内需增长经历了明显下行，比如房地 ...

国家统计局出了权威数据，2025年国内生产总值（GDP）达到140.1879万亿元，如果按照不变价格计算，增长5%。如果按照可变价格计算，有可能有着 一些变化，不过统计局数据表明，2025年我国居民消费价格指数（CPI）基本与2024年上年持平，那么可能以可变价格计算，GDP的增长率变化不大。 1.2025年度我国进出口的贸易额总额达到45.47万亿人民币，增长率为3.8%，对比GDP增长率也显滞后。不过其中也有亮点，在全球贸易形势极其不稳定 的时期，尤其是中美贸易关系紧张的一年中，我国出口仍然达到近27万亿人民币，增长6.1%；进口18.47万亿人民币，增长0.5%，说明我国未来出口的潜 力仍然巨大。 2.2025年度社会消费品零售总额50.12万亿人民币，比上年增长3.7%，对比GDP增长率也显滞后。如果对比居民消费价格指数（CPI）基本与2024年上年持 平的指标分析，基本上社零总额增长还是少了，与经济的稳定增长没有同步前行。 那么在GDP增长5%的前提下，消费明显已经拖后腿了，那么合理推测，2025年的投资，尤其是国家和各省市的直接投资和间接投资增长率是比较高的， 最终将GDP增长率拉升到5%。社会零 ...

Market Overview - The market is currently experiencing a phase of consolidation after a period of overheating, primarily due to expectations of tightening overseas liquidity and pressure from cyclical sector corrections [1][12] - As these factors may gradually diminish, the market is expected to enter significant time windows such as the Spring Festival and the Two Sessions [1][12] Investment Insights - **Yang Jianhua**: Focus on sectors with performance realization. The market in January exhibited extreme volatility, and with a lack of new investment themes, a period of observation is anticipated. Consistent expectations have led to short-term fluctuations, but sectors with enduring narratives and performance potential may still present investment opportunities [2][13] - **Liao Hanbo**: Attention on AI and cyclical sectors. The market remains heated, with no immediate downward risks observed. However, rapid sector rotation complicates investment decisions. Future focus will be on new investment opportunities in AI and marginal changes in cyclical sub-sectors [3][14] - **Tan Xiaobing**: Short-term market may experience fluctuations. February presents a rare performance vacuum, and with a lengthy Spring Festival, some funds may realize profits early. The market is likely to show a fluctuating pattern, emphasizing stock selection [4][15] - **Long Yufei**: Continued optimism for new medical technologies. The ongoing wave of technological innovation in the medical and consumer sectors is expected to create investment opportunities, particularly in AI healthcare, brain-computer interfaces, surgical robots, AI innovative drugs, and innovative medical devices [5][17] - **Liang Furui**: Seeking new logic in innovative pharmaceuticals. The previously dominant BD trading model in the innovative drug sector has weakened, necessitating a new consensus to guide future market trends. Key directions include core value return, performance explosion from certain overseas platform-type innovative drug companies, and a positive cycle in BD trading [6][18] - **Chen Ziyang**: Potential differentiation in cyclical stocks. Strong performance in metals, oil, and chemicals is driven by positive economic expectations and liquidity support. High short-term price volatility necessitates finding a new balance between expectations and actual demand, with anticipated differentiation among cyclical stocks [7][19] - **Zhang Jian**: Focus on domestic consumption and price-increasing varieties. Key investment directions include domestic consumption resilience, price-increasing commodities like metals and chemicals, non-bank sectors benefiting from strong insurance growth, and the overseas expansion of Chinese manufacturing [8][20] - **Su Junyan**: Optimism for the spring market continuation. The strong inflow of funds at the beginning of the year is expected to sustain a bullish spring market, with manageable external risks and limited impact from the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction narrative [10][21] - **Lin Hao**: Structural market trends likely to continue. With new capital entering the market, there is sustained interest in technology growth sectors, cyclical sectors benefiting from "anti-involution," and commercial aerospace. The market may trend towards decoupling, with a focus on self-sufficiency and resource value reassessment [11][22]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is committed to promoting domestic consumption through policies such as subsidies and the "two new" policy, which focuses on large-scale equipment updates and consumer goods exchange programs [1][4][7] Group 1: Policy Implementation - The "two new" policy aims to encourage both enterprises and residents to upgrade equipment and exchange old consumer goods for new ones with government subsidies [4] - The Ministry of Finance has confirmed ongoing support for consumer goods exchange programs, emphasizing the importance of stable employment and increased income to boost consumption [4][7] - The government plans to continue implementing special consumption initiatives and adjust subsidy standards to enhance domestic consumption capacity [7] Group 2: Economic Context - China is the world's largest producer of daily consumer goods, making the promotion of domestic consumption crucial for healthy economic development [7] - There is a positive correlation between disposable income levels and consumption patterns; stagnant or declining disposable income may lead to conservative spending behaviors [7][10] - Experts suggest that while Chinese residents have high consumption capacity, their willingness to spend is lower than the international average, indicating a need to enhance consumer confidence [10] Group 3: Consumer Behavior Insights - Chinese citizens have the highest savings rate globally, with their total savings now accounting for 30% of the world's total, up from 5% three decades ago [13] - Historical comparisons indicate that economic crises and rising living costs contribute to a cautious consumer mindset, leading to higher savings and lower discretionary spending [13][14] - Addressing fundamental issues such as housing, childcare, and retirement could significantly improve consumer willingness to spend [14]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has transitioned from a phase dominated by sentiment-driven adjustments to a more rational valuation phase supported by policy and earnings recovery, with a focus on profitability, dividends, and industry structure rather than just being "cheap" [1][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The market is characterized by a stark contrast between high-dividend, strong cash flow assets and growth-oriented sectors influenced by global liquidity and thematic sentiment [1][3] - The global AI wave is reshaping capital flows and industry structures, with competition intensifying around computing power, algorithms, and application scenarios [1][7] - Institutional investors are increasingly focused on reassessing the cost-effectiveness of Hong Kong and Asian assets along the AI industry chain as valuations are no longer at extreme lows [1][3] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy emphasizes understanding macroeconomic conditions, corporate competitiveness, and earnings volatility rather than solely relying on low valuations [3][10] - The focus has shifted from "valuation recovery" to identifying companies with potential earnings improvement in a gradually recovering macro environment [3][10] - The investment approach is characterized by a balance between high-dividend and high-growth sectors, allowing for dynamic switching between different styles [10][11] Group 3: Sector Insights - The internal demand sector is expected to have significant upside potential if stronger consumer support policies are introduced, although broad opportunities may be limited due to mixed macro data and slowing population growth [5][11] - Specific sectors like travel, leisure services, and experience-based consumption may see recovery and growth driven by policy support [5][11] - The hardware segment of the AI industry, particularly in memory and high-end manufacturing, is highlighted as a key area for investment due to its stable competitive landscape and high demand [7][8] Group 4: Risk Management - The investment philosophy includes a focus on safety margins and avoiding excessive concentration in single themes, with a preference for companies that demonstrate clear advantages in both valuation and earnings [10][11] - The approach to risk control involves monitoring individual stock valuations and overall portfolio beta exposure, adjusting positions based on macroeconomic and policy changes [11][12] - The emphasis is on identifying undervalued companies with long-term competitive advantages that may be overlooked or mispriced in the current market environment [12]

Core Viewpoint - The report emphasizes the importance of following the "14th Five-Year Plan" and subsequent incremental policy directions, suggesting a focus on technology growth supported by performance, while also considering cyclical commodities, domestic consumption, dividend stocks, and sectors with improving economic conditions [1] Group 1: Investment Opportunities - Investors are encouraged to pay attention to cyclical sectors benefiting from anti-involution policies and economic recovery [1] - Domestic consumption trends include the "silver economy" for the elderly, "self-indulgent consumption" for younger generations, affordable consumption for the general public, and new vitality in consumption [1] - Dividend stocks still hold value for investment when selected at lower prices [1] Group 2: Cash Flow ETF - Investors may consider the Cash Flow ETF (159399), which has outperformed the CSI Dividend Index and the CSI 300 Index for nine consecutive years from 2016 to 2024 [1] - The underlying index of the Cash Flow ETF focuses on large and mid-cap stocks, with a higher proportion of central state-owned enterprises compared to similar cash flow indices [1] - Monthly assessments of dividends are possible for the Cash Flow ETF, making it an attractive option for interested investors [1]