图片来 源：界面库图 智通财经记者 | 陈靖 1月6日，上交所最新披露的数据显示，2025年A股市场新开户数累计达2743.69万户，较2024年的 2499.89万户同比增长9.75%，创下2022年以来的年度新高。 数据显示，A股开户节奏与市场行情深度绑定，呈现"前高稳走、年末翘尾"的鲜明态势。具体来看，1 月以157万户平稳开局，2月受春节后行情活跃带动激增至284万户，3月进一步突破300万户；下半年市 场回暖趋势明确，6月至9月新开户数连续四个月回升，12月单月新开户达260万户，环比增长9.1%，同 比增幅更是高达30.54%，年末入市热情显著升温。 开户数据背后的结构变化尤为亮眼。 个人投资者仍是开户主力，全年新开个人账户2733万户，同比增长9.67%；机构投资者开户则迎来爆发 式增长，全年新开机构账户10.45万户，同比激增35%，增速远超个人投资者，12月单月机构新开户达 1.11万户，创下年内新高。 同时，年轻群体成为个人投资者增量的核心力量，35岁以下的"90后""00后"新开户占比已超45%，较 2024年提升5个百分点，成为市场不容忽视的新鲜血液。 "2025年开户数的持续增长，本 ...

报告导读： 热点主题交易热度整体回升， AI 应用与机器人迎来密集催化，商业航天延续 高热度 。 主题交易环境有望转好，看好： AI 应用 / 机器人 / 商业航天 / 内需消费。 主题 温度计： 热点主题交易热度整体回升， AI 应用与机器人迎来密集催化，商业航天延续高热度 。 上周热点主题日均成交额平均 8.6 亿元，日均换手率 3.84% ，整体均回升。 Meta 大额收购 Manus 和国内大模型公司港股上市提振了 AI 应用主题交易热度，资金明显净流入，数字人民币新规催化支付结算相 关板块行情，蓝箭航天 IPO 申请获受理，商业航天主题维持高热度，锂电材料、区域经济、电力相关主题回调。 2025 年 12 月中旬以来，人民币汇率走强 叠加美联储降息落地与国内财政货币发力预期，整体市场风险偏好企稳回升，主题交易环境有望转好，看好 AI 应用 / 机器人 / 商业航天 / 内需消费。 主题一： AI 应用。 Meta 大额收购 AI 智能体公司 Manus ，强化端到端执行能力，国产大模型公司智谱、 MiniMax 港股上市，强化资本实力与全球布局。 AI 应用产品性能跃升激发用户使用需求，国产大模型公 ...

Group 1 - The overall performance of the equity market in 2025 was strong, with technology stocks, particularly those related to computing power, showing significant gains and becoming a key factor in fund investments [1] - In 2026, the impact of prices on nominal growth is expected to decrease, leading to a more certain recovery in China's nominal economic growth. Domestic consumption of goods is at a reasonable level, but service consumption remains notably low compared to the global average [1] - Fiscal spending is shifting from "investment in objects" to "investment in people," with resources increasingly directed towards education, healthcare, and social security, which are expected to stimulate consumption potential [1] Group 2 - The outlook for the equity market in 2026 suggests that overall opportunities outweigh risks, despite some overheating in certain sectors of AI-related technology stocks. The development of the AI industry in China is expected to accelerate due to the engineer dividend [2] - The AI industry is entering a phase of rapid growth, with many companies expected to enter a fast development period. There is a particular focus on domestic computing power and AI applications as high-probability investment directions [2] - The central economic work conference indicates that domestic demand growth will play a more significant role in economic construction, with consumer-related stocks showing potential for higher returns, although their performance has been average recently [2]

Group 1 - The overall performance of the equity market in 2025 was strong, with technology stocks, particularly those related to computing power, showing significant gains and becoming a key factor in fund investments [1] - In 2026, the impact of prices on nominal growth is expected to decrease, leading to a more certain recovery in China's nominal economic growth [1] - Domestic consumption of goods in China is at a reasonable level, but the proportion of service consumption is notably lower than the global average, indicating potential for growth in this area [1] Group 2 - The outlook for the equity market in 2026 suggests that overall opportunities outweigh risks, despite some overheating in certain sectors of AI-related technology stocks [2] - The AI industry is entering a critical growth phase, with China's engineer advantage expected to accelerate the development of the domestic AI sector, leading to many companies entering a rapid growth period [2] - Domestic consumption-related stocks have shown average performance recently, but many quality consumer stocks have dividend yields in an attractive range, indicating potential for upward movement [2]

Group 1: Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to welcome a "spring opening red" with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3968.84 points, marking an annual increase of 18.41% in 2025, confirming the strategic judgment of Guotai Junan [2][7] - Key factors supporting the market include the anticipated announcement of the new Federal Reserve Chair, expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts in 2026, and the influx of incremental capital represented by the A500 ETF [2][8] - The decision-making body has emphasized the need to "promote investment stabilization," indicating a stronger policy push to boost growth, particularly in the real estate sector [2][8] Group 2: Price Signals and Economic Recovery - The central bank's fourth-quarter meeting highlighted the importance of price signals in promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery, with price increases beginning to emerge in certain sectors since the second half of 2025 [3][11] - Specific sectors experiencing demand improvement but supply contraction include chemicals (e.g., organic silicon, refrigerants) and new energy materials (e.g., lithium carbonate) [3][11] - The current price increase cycle is characterized by demand driven by new technologies such as AI and energy storage, rather than traditional infrastructure [3][11] Group 3: Industry Comparisons - The outlook for technology, non-bank financials, and consumer sectors is positive, with strong growth expected in emerging technologies and capital goods exports [4][13] - Recommendations include technology growth stocks, non-bank financials benefiting from increased wealth management demand, and cyclical stocks positioned for recovery due to domestic demand expansion [4][13] - The focus on cyclical stocks includes those in the tourism, hotel, and consumer goods sectors, which are expected to benefit from policy support for domestic demand [4][13] Group 4: Thematic Recommendations - AI applications are expected to see significant growth, with companies like MiniMax preparing for IPOs and advancements in AI models driving demand [4][22] - The robotics sector is entering a phase of scale development, with new products being launched and significant investments in technology and supply chains [4][23] - The commercial aerospace sector is poised for growth, with new guidelines for IPOs and advancements in reusable rocket technology [4][24] - Consumer spending is expected to increase, driven by new consumption scenarios in sports events and tourism, supported by government policies [4][25]

策 略 研 究 AI 应用与机器人主题有望接力 [Table_Authors] 方奕(分析师) 主题风向标 1 月第 1 期 本报告导读： 热点主题交易热度整体回升，AI 应用与机器人迎来密集催化，商业航天延续高热度。 主题交易环境有望转好，看好：AI 应用/机器人/商业航天/内需消费。 投资要点： 策略研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.01.04 | | 021-38031658 | | --- | --- | | | fangyi2@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880520120005 | | | 苏徽(分析师) | | | 021-38676434 | | | suhui@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880516080006 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 越世界，越中国 2025.12.24 布局跨年攻势，科技与内需主题轮动 2025.12.21 聚焦国家重大战略，布局科技与能源 2025.12.14 12 月金股策略：做多跨年行情 2025.12.01 从再平衡到再配置，科技主题重回主线 2025.11.30 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正 ...

18 6600 3 魏凤春 深圳商报记者 陈燕青 2026年，市场定价从"预期透支"回归"盈利兑现"。产业选择的核心标尺从"赛道故事"转向"盈利验证"，业绩 确定性成为估值锚定的核心依据。 在投资机会方面，一是新质生产力赛道（电子、高端装备），二是中游制造及上游资源品。 2025年，A股整体呈现震荡上涨态势：沪指上涨近两成，一度冲上4000点；科技成长股领涨，创业板指大涨 五成。进入2026年，A股会否延续反弹？市场风格又将如何演绎？近日，创金合信基金首席经济学家魏凤春 在接受深圳商报记者采访时表示，2026年A股有望延续此前的上涨态势，但市场的驱动逻辑切换为盈利主 导，看好新质生产力赛道和中游制造。 2026年A股有望延续上涨态势 2025年，A股整体呈现科技股领涨的成长风格。从大的板块来看，科创50、创业板指数全年分别大涨近四成 和约五成，明显超过上证50、沪深300等蓝筹股指数。 创金合信基金首席经济学家魏凤春认为，过去一年市场的结构性分化，核心源于资产定价逻辑的三重维度演 进。首先，2025年呈现向科技成长端集中的结构性倾斜，本质是新质生产力引领的主导产业更替进入质变 期，AI+赋能与科技自立自强形成 ...

漫画 王建明 2026年，A股市场有望从估值驱动转向盈利驱动，呈现"慢牛"特征。 建议投资者关注以下四大方向：一是科技创新，重点关注算力/应用/机器人/智驾等AI产业链，以及创新药 等；二是先进制造，关注我国具有竞争力且景气有望向上的新能源、国防军工等；三是上游周期,有望受益 于"反内卷"且具有涨价预期的有色、化工、钢铁、煤炭、建材等；四是内需消费，重点关注受益于扩内需+消 费结构转型的新消费，如IP、宠物等。 2026年科技投资难度将大于2025年,投资者未来想获取超额收益，将更依赖于对产业节奏的精准把握和个股的 深度甄别。 深圳商报记者 詹钰叶 2025年A股市场大涨，站在2026年的起点，市场是否延续反弹？哪些板块值得关注？多家机构认为，在"更加 积极有为"的宏观政策支持下，中国经济将实现韧性增长与结构升级的双向奔赴，内需复苏与外需韧性形成合 力支撑。A股市场有望从估值驱动转向盈利驱动，呈现"慢牛"特征，科技创新、消费升级等成为全市场共识 性投资主线。 中泰证券 科技领航，促消费与扩投资协同推进 宏观层面看，中泰国际首席经济学家李迅雷认为，2026年作为"十五五"规划开局之年，GDP增速目标预计定 在5 ...

Industrial Sector - Raw material production continues seasonal adjustments, with steel and building materials output declining this week[1] - Cement clinker capacity utilization rate decreased, while asphalt production increased[1] - Polyester and weaving industry operating rates weakened seasonally, while semi-steel tire production increased[1] Real Estate - New home sales in 30 major cities decreased by 25.2% year-on-year as of December 26, with a slight improvement of 3.0 percentage points compared to last month[1] - The second-hand housing listing price index fell by 0.62% month-on-month, with the decline narrowing[1] Domestic Demand - Movie box office revenue remains high, with a year-on-year increase of 108.5% as of December 25[1] - Retail sales of automobiles decreased by 19% year-on-year from December 1-21, compared to a 7% decline in November[1] - Major home appliance retail sales fell by 34.4% year-on-year as of December 19, a decline of 11.3 percentage points from the end of November[1] External Demand - Port cargo throughput increased by 3.1% year-on-year as of December 21, with container throughput up by 9.1%[1] - Export container freight rates rose by 2.0% this week, marking three consecutive weeks of increase[1] Price Trends - The Nanhua Industrial Index rose by 2.8%, while the Nanhua Non-ferrous Metals Index increased by 5.0% this week[1] - Agricultural product wholesale price index fell by 0.4% week-on-week, showing a stronger performance compared to the same period last year[1]

12月27日金融一线消息，中国财富管理50人论坛2025年会在京召开，本届年会的主题是"迈向'十五 五'建设金融强国"。国泰基金董事长周向勇参与"锚定十五五：资管行业定位重构与能力跃迁"圆桌讨 论。 专题：中国财富管理50人论坛2025年会 周向勇指出，中国实体经济的基本面为资本市场发展奠定了坚实基础，而资本市场及资管机构作为 "上 层建筑"，在过去几年对经济基础的反作用尚未充分发挥。"十五五" 期间，公募基金的核心任务是强化 能动性，更高质量地服务实体经济，助力经济转型。 他强调，资管机构的功能性与盈利性并不冲突。公募基金应将功能性放在首位，以义取利，通过有效发 挥能动性为实体经济提供高质量服务，长期来看盈利性也将得到保障，实现二者的良性互动与平衡。这 也是公募基金在 "十五五" 期间服务国家战略、把握发展机遇的核心逻辑。 结合 "十五五" 规划纲要，周向勇提炼出两大核心发力方向，作为公募基金服务实体经济的具体抓手。 他强调，资管机构的功能性与盈利性并不冲突。公募基金应将功能性放在首位，以义取利，通过有效发 挥能动性为实体经济提供高质量服务，长期来看盈利性也将得到保障，实现二者的良性互动与平衡。这 也是公募 ...