Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Junan emphasizes a positive outlook for the Chinese market despite recent volatility, suggesting that the market is entering a favorable phase for investment as it approaches a critical window of policy and liquidity support from December to February [1][2]. Market Analysis - The Chinese stock market has experienced significant declines, with the ChiNext index down 12%, the STAR 50 index nearly 20%, and the Hang Seng Tech index down 22%, indicating that the market has already released much of its risk [1]. - The report highlights that the current pessimism among investors is driven by year-end profit protection, reduced positions, and external factors such as the cooling of Fed rate cut expectations and increased volatility in U.S. markets [1][2]. Investment Strategy - Guotai Junan recommends increasing exposure to the Chinese market, particularly in technology, financial services, and consumer sectors, as the market is expected to stabilize and embark on a rally [1][3]. - Specific sectors to focus on include: - **Technology**: Growth in AI applications and infrastructure, with recommendations for internet, media, computing, and manufacturing sectors [3]. - **Financial Services**: Anticipated reforms in the capital market and early bank dividends, with a focus on brokerage and insurance stocks [3]. - **Consumer Goods**: Opportunities in low-priced, low-inventory consumer stocks, particularly in food, beverages, and tourism sectors, as macroeconomic risks decrease [3]. Future Outlook - The Chinese capital market is positioned for significant growth, with expectations of double-digit profit growth in non-financial sectors by 2026, driven by improved cash flows and reduced debt [2]. - The report suggests that the historical "guaranteed return" mindset is shifting, leading to increased asset management demand and a potential influx of new capital into the market [2].

报告导读： 恐慌性抛售后，中国股市已跌至关键位置，进入击球区。12-2月是中国政 策、流动性、基本面向上共振的窗口期。布出先手棋，增持中国市场。看好科技/券商/ 消费。 大势研判：市场风险已大幅释放，中国股市进入击球区。 近期中国股市快速走弱，并出现单日恐慌式抛售，市场悲观情绪弥漫。原因在于，临近年末部分投 资人保收益和降仓位动机较高，FED降息预期的降温、美股波动加剧与内部政策缺位交织助推了交易波动和信心走弱，加之权益产品备案放缓市场增量供给不 足，客观上股市微观结构受到负面冲击。与当下谨慎共识不同的是，国泰海通策略坚决看好中国市场前景，股指进入击球区：1）尽管上证回撤5%看似不 大，但创业板指高点回调12%、科创50指下跌近20%、恒生科技下跌22%，调整时间和空间已与历次牛市主线回调相当，恐慌抛售杀出交易风险释放。2） 市场对年末经济工作会议讨论不多，考虑眼下走弱的增长现实和十五五开年经济增速的重要性，政策窗口期临近市场有望建立新预期。3）中金公司合并标志 资本市场改革加快纵深，21日16只硬科技ETF迅速获批隐含监管层稳定市场的决心与行动部署。机会总在恐慌中出现，我们认为，中国股市将逐步企稳与展 开跨 ...

主题温度计：热点主题交易热度较十月降温，科技主题内部分化，消费蓝筹底部回升。 上周热点主题日均成交额平均 8 亿元，日均换手率 3.55% ， 11 月 以来较前期整体回落。科技主题内部分化，电解液 / 隔膜等锂电材料连续两周大涨，部分创新药反弹， PCB/ 光模块回调，电网设备上周大涨后回调；非科 技主题亮点增多，低价蓝筹与白酒 / 金融获资金净流入。短期市场在总量层面缺乏预期锚点，交易方向依赖自下而上结构性变化，主题轮动加快前期大涨主 题易出现回调，风格均衡下低位消费 / 红利主题成为资金选择。本期看好内需消费新机遇与区域经济新格局，关注 AI/ 机器人 / 创新药年底修复。 报告导读： 热点主题交易热度较十月降温，科技主题内部分化，消费蓝筹底部回升。看好 内需消费新机遇与区域经济新格局。推荐：内需消费 / 新疆基建 /AI 应用 / 机器人。 主题一：内需消费。 国常会提出增强供需适配性释放消费潜力，培育消费新场景新业态。新需求引领新供给，新供给创造新需求，我国体育赛事 / 冰雪旅游 / 演出文旅等新场景不断兴起。"苏超"溢出效应显著，带动江苏全域多场景消费超 380 亿元；辽宁省委提出办好"东北超"， ...

主题温度计：热点主题交易热度较十月降温，科技主题内部分化，消费蓝筹底部回升。 上周热点主题日均成交额平均8亿元，日均换手率3.55%，11月以来较 前期整体回落。科技主题内部分化，电解液/隔膜等锂电材料连续两周大涨，部分创新药反弹，PCB/光模块回调，电网设备上周大涨后回调；非科技主题亮点 增多，低价蓝筹与白酒/金融获资金净流入。短期市场在总量层面缺乏预期锚点，交易方向依赖自下而上结构性变化，主题轮动加快前期大涨主题易出现回 调，风格均衡下低位消费/红利主题成为资金选择。本期看好内需消费新机遇与区域经济新格局，关注AI/机器人/创新药年底修复。 主题一：内需消费。国常会提出增强供需适配性释放消费潜力，培育消费新场景新业态。 新需求引领新供给，新供给创造新需求，我国体育赛事/冰雪旅游/演 出文旅等新场景不断兴起。"苏超"溢出效应显著，带动江苏全域多场景消费超380亿元；辽宁省委提出办好"东北超"，打造具有全国影响力的足球赛事品牌； 2024-2025冰雪季，我国冰雪运动消费规模超1875亿元，同比增长25%。提振消费举措加力扩围，新消费场景不断兴起。推荐：1、新场景新需求涌现的冰雪旅 游/赛事运营/场馆装备；2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing debate in the A-share market regarding the future of technology stocks versus domestic demand stocks, highlighting the contrasting investment strategies and sentiments among fund managers [5][12]. Group 1: Technology Sector Insights - Fund managers are beginning to express caution regarding the high valuations of AI stocks, suggesting a need for diversified investment strategies to mitigate potential volatility [8][9]. - The rapid growth of AI-related funds, such as the China Europe Digital Economy Fund, has been accompanied by warnings about the sustainability of current valuations and the importance of spreading investments across different sectors [8][9]. - Prominent figures in the investment community, including Michael Burry, have raised concerns about the AI bubble, indicating a broader skepticism about the pace of growth and valuation levels in the tech sector [9][10]. Group 2: Domestic Demand Focus - Fund managers who missed the tech rally are increasingly focusing on domestic consumption opportunities, particularly in the service sector, as a more stable investment strategy [13][14]. - The importance of domestic consumption is emphasized by fund managers like Zhang Kun, who maintain a strong belief in the long-term potential of China's consumer market [13][14]. - There is a notable divergence in strategies among fund managers regarding domestic demand, with some focusing on service consumption while others remain committed to traditional sectors like liquor [14][17]. Group 3: Real Estate Sector Dynamics - The real estate sector is viewed by some fund managers as a potential recovery area, despite ongoing challenges in the market, with a belief that the sector may present a once-in-a-decade opportunity [17][19]. - Recent data indicates a shift in the competitive landscape of real estate, with new leaders emerging in land acquisition, reflecting changes in market dynamics [17][18]. - Despite optimism from certain investors, the real estate sector continues to struggle with low growth in revenue and profits, leading to a cautious outlook among many market participants [20][19]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The article highlights a period of uncertainty in the market, with differing views on the timing and direction of future volatility, particularly between tech and domestic demand investors [24]. - Fund managers are preparing for a critical phase as annual performance evaluations approach, with the potential for significant shifts in market sentiment based on upcoming financial disclosures [24].

Group 1 - The A-share market is currently experiencing significant differentiation, with growth sectors facing both long-term opportunities from industrial upgrades and short-term impacts from external environmental changes [1] - Morgan Fund's Morgan Huiqi Growth Mixed Fund will officially launch on November 17, aiming to enhance investor experience through a new floating management fee model that links fees directly to performance [1] - The fund will be managed by experienced fund manager Li Dehui, who has 13 years of research experience and nearly 9 years of fund management experience, focusing on large-cap growth companies with sustainable competitive advantages [1] Group 2 - Li Dehui's Morgan Technology Frontier Mixed Fund has achieved a cumulative return of 211.35% since its inception in July 2015, significantly outperforming the benchmark return of 25.37% [2] - As of September 30, 2025, the Morgan Technology Frontier Mixed Fund ranked 12th out of 185 in its category, placing it in the top 10% of flexible allocation funds [2] - Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, Li Dehui anticipates that factors such as potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, domestic liquidity easing, and supportive policies will benefit the stock market, with technology investment and domestic consumption expected to stabilize economic growth [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant decline in the stock position of Kweichow Moutai among public funds, dropping from the third to the tenth position in the top ten holdings of actively managed equity funds within a single quarter, indicating a shift in investor sentiment and market dynamics [1][5]. Fund Holdings Overview - As of the end of Q3, Kweichow Moutai's market value held by actively managed equity funds was 283.72 billion yuan, with a decrease of 9.7 billion yuan from the previous quarter [5]. - The number of funds holding Kweichow Moutai decreased by 27 to 573, and the number of shares held fell by 1.1684 million to 1.9684 million shares [5]. - Despite the decline in rankings, Kweichow Moutai remains the second-largest holding among all public funds, largely due to passive investment products [5]. Market Performance and Analysis - Kweichow Moutai's revenue for the first nine months of the year was 130.904 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.32%, while net profit rose by 6.25% to 64.626 billion yuan [5]. - The divergence in market sentiment is attributed to differing views on the industry's future and relative returns, with some funds shifting investments to other more flexible liquor stocks for better returns [5][6]. Fund Manager Actions - There is a clear division in the actions of public funds regarding Kweichow Moutai, with some funds like招商基金 and 汇添富基金 increasing their holdings, while others such as 华夏基金 and 易方达基金 have reduced their positions [7]. - Notable fund managers have shown mixed strategies, with some reducing their stakes while others continue to support Kweichow Moutai, reflecting varied investment philosophies [7][9]. Industry Outlook - The white liquor industry is facing challenges, with companies adjusting growth targets amid demand pressures, suggesting a potential long-term strategy shift towards stability rather than aggressive growth [6]. - Analysts believe that the current valuation of the food and beverage sector is at a near ten-year low, presenting a favorable investment opportunity, especially for leading brands like Kweichow Moutai as the market recovers [6].

Core Viewpoint - The statement by Professor Jin Canrong highlights that China has not achieved economic strategic autonomy despite being the world's second-largest economy, excelling in manufacturing and infrastructure [1][21]. Group 1: Economic Strengths - China is recognized as the "world's factory," with strong production capabilities and high-quality products, maintaining order fulfillment even during tense US-China relations [5]. - The country has a significant export volume, with nearly 2 trillion yuan in export tax rebates, effectively subsidizing foreign consumers [7]. Group 2: Strategic Vulnerabilities - China's economic model is heavily reliant on external markets and key technologies, leading to strategic passivity [10]. - The country faces a critical technology gap, particularly in high-value sectors like semiconductors, importing over $300 billion worth of chips annually, which poses a risk of industry shutdowns if supply is disrupted [11][13]. - The lack of foundational research investment and a culture of innovation hampers the transition from "0 to 1" breakthroughs, making it difficult to achieve technological independence [15]. Group 3: Domestic Consumption Challenges - Despite having the largest single market with 1.4 billion people, domestic consumption remains underpowered due to financial pressures from housing, education, and healthcare [17]. - The income distribution structure is problematic, with a high Gini coefficient indicating that the majority of the population has limited disposable income, which constrains consumption [19]. - To stimulate domestic demand and consumption upgrades, deep reforms are necessary, including stabilizing the real estate market and expanding the middle-income group [19]. Group 4: Strategic Initiatives - The government has proposed the "dual circulation" strategy to strengthen domestic circulation and address technological shortcomings, aiming for greater autonomy in global competition [22]. - Achieving true strategic autonomy will require time, endurance, and the participation of the entire society, from enterprises to consumers [22].

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.37% to 4002.83 points with a trading volume of approximately 605.1 billion [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.90% to 13550.65 points with a trading volume of about 816.3 billion [2] - The ChiNext Index saw a rise of 1.35% to 3273.28 points with a trading volume of around 395.5 billion [2] - The STAR Market Index decreased by 0.20% to 1672.05 points with a trading volume of approximately 152.3 billion [2] - The North Star 50 Index increased by 0.29% to 1455.84 points with a trading volume of about 12.8 billion [2] Sector Performance - Key sectors that performed well included communication equipment, precious metals, and non-ferrous metals, while internet, semiconductors, and home goods sectors lagged [1] - Quantum technology, Hainan Free Trade Zone, PCB concepts, lithium mining, and storage chips saw significant gains during the trading session [1] - By midday, sectors such as Hainan Free Trade Zone, non-ferrous metals, and diversified finance led the gains, with notable increases in securities, communication equipment, lithium mining, and newly listed stocks on the STAR Market [1] Company Insights - Individual stock performance was closely tied to earnings report disclosures and market expectations [1] - Sunshine Power experienced a strong rise following its third-quarter report, while ZTE opened significantly lower [1] - Companies like Industrial Fulian and Xian Dao Intelligent saw substantial increases due to anticipated earnings reports [1] Policy and Economic Outlook - The "14th Five-Year Plan" and its continuity into the "15th Five-Year Plan" are expected to provide a stable framework for capital market development [3] - Focus areas for investment during the "15th Five-Year Plan" include digital technology, space economy, high-end manufacturing, domestic consumption, and biotechnology [3] - The emphasis on new productive forces is seen as crucial for transitioning from old to new economic drivers amid increasing external uncertainties [3] Innovation Index - The 2024 China Innovation Index is projected to be 174.2, reflecting a 5.3% increase from the previous year, indicating a steady improvement in the innovation environment [5][6] - Key components of the innovation index, including innovation environment, input, output, and effectiveness, showed growth rates of 4.9%, 5.1%, 8.1%, and 1.9% respectively [5] - The index highlights the ongoing enhancement of China's technological innovation capabilities and the growth of new economic drivers [6]

Core Viewpoint - E Fund's Zhang Kun has adjusted the portfolio structure of several funds in Q3, reducing holdings in Tencent and Alibaba while increasing positions in Kweichow Moutai, reflecting a strategic shift in investment focus [1][2][5]. Fund Performance and Adjustments - The total scale of funds managed by Zhang Kun is approximately 56.5 billion yuan, showing a slight increase from 55 billion yuan at the end of Q2, primarily due to net asset value growth [1]. - The largest fund, E Fund Blue Chip Selection, saw significant changes with SF Express exiting the top ten holdings and Focus Media entering, alongside reductions in Tencent, Alibaba, and Luzhou Laojiao, while increasing stakes in Kweichow Moutai and Yum China [2][5]. - E Fund Quality Selection Mixed Fund also reduced holdings in Tencent and Alibaba, with new entries in JD Health and Focus Media [5]. - E Fund Quality Enterprise Three-Year Holding Fund showed a notable decrease in the number of shares held for most stocks, including Tencent and Alibaba, with only Yum China seeing a significant increase in holdings [7]. Investment Philosophy - Zhang Kun emphasizes the unpredictability of market styles but insists on maintaining a consistent investment approach, focusing on companies with strong business models, competitive advantages, and sustainable growth potential [11]. - The macroeconomic perspective highlights that despite short-term challenges, long-term structural factors should not be overlooked, with a belief that China's GDP growth will exceed global averages due to its low per capita GDP and potential for increased consumer spending [11]. - The company believes that the current low valuation levels provide a significant margin of safety for investments, and that the accumulation of free cash flow will eventually reflect in the intrinsic value and market capitalization of companies [11].