Industry Overview - Ethylene-vinyl acetate copolymer (EVA) is the fourth largest ethylene series polymer, produced through the copolymerization of ethylene and vinyl acetate [2][6] - China's EVA production capacity has grown significantly, from 972,000 tons in 2017 to 2.91 million tons in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 30% from 2020 to 2024 [6][8] - The production process in China primarily utilizes tubular and kettle methods, with tubular method accounting for over 65% of production capacity in 2024 [4][6] Production and Demand Trends - China's EVA production has increased from 756,000 tons in 2019 to 2.3835 million tons in 2024, achieving a CAGR of 33.25% [8][10] - However, the growth rate is expected to slow down, with a year-on-year increase of only 10.68% in 2024 due to a slowdown in downstream demand [8][10] - Despite the increase in domestic production, China still relies on imports, with EVA imports decreasing by 34.22% to 915,600 tons in 2024, reflecting improved domestic supply capabilities [10][11] Competitive Landscape - The EVA industry in China is characterized by a "four strong" competitive landscape, with companies like Oriental Rainbow, Zhejiang Petrochemical, Gulei Petrochemical, and Yulin Energy Coal holding significant market shares [13] - In 2024, Oriental Rainbow became the first company to exceed 500,000 tons in production capacity, significantly outpacing its competitors [13][19] Future Outlook - The EVA industry is expected to continue its capacity expansion cycle, with planned capacities exceeding 4 million tons from 2025 to 2028 [11][19] - The industry is likely to transition from a net importer to a net exporter, enhancing China's competitiveness in high-end polymer materials [11][20] - The demand for EVA is expanding into new fields such as photovoltaics and medical applications, with photovoltaic film demand exceeding 50% of total EVA demand [21][20]