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益生股份(002458):前期引种下滑影响销量,归母净利润同比-7%
Guoxin Securities· 2025-04-01 05:43
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The company's 2024 revenue is reported at 3.136 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.76% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 504 million yuan, down 6.84% year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in chick sales and a slight drop in sales prices [1][6] - The chicken business experienced a 9.27% decrease in chick sales volume to 586 million chicks, leading to a 9.50% decline in overall revenue for the chicken segment to 2.697 billion yuan, despite a stable average sales price [1][6] - The pig business saw a significant increase in sales volume, with the number of breeding pigs sold rising by 806% to approximately 30,000 heads, resulting in a 320% increase in revenue to 224 million yuan [2][7] - The company anticipates an improvement in white chicken consumption in 2025, supported by domestic demand stimulation policies and macroeconomic recovery [2][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved revenue of 982 million yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 26.26% and a year-on-year increase of 73.41, with a net profit of 203 million yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 72.88% and a year-on-year increase of 242.33% [1][6] - The gross margin for the chicken business improved by 0.28 percentage points to 33.54%, despite an 8.73% decline in gross profit to 905 million yuan [1][6] - The overall gross margin for 2024 is reported at 29.41%, down 2.20 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin is at 16.01%, down 0.97 percentage points [13] Future Projections - The net profit forecast for 2025 has been revised down to 720 million yuan from the previous estimate of 900 million yuan, while the 2026 and 2027 net profit forecasts remain at 810 million yuan and 870 million yuan, respectively [3][17] - The expected earnings per share for 2025-2027 are projected to be 0.7, 0.7, and 0.8 yuan, respectively [3][17] Market Position - The company is positioned as a leading player in the domestic white feather broiler breeding industry, with long-term potential to benefit from its genetic advantages and the recovery of the white feather broiler market [3][17]