Core Viewpoint - The recent collaborations in the hydrogen heavy truck industry are not indicative of an industry boom but rather a response to the core issues of "unaffordability, inadequate infrastructure, and unsuitability" faced by the sector [1] Cost Issues - The commercialization challenge for hydrogen heavy trucks is primarily cost-related, with a single vehicle priced at 1 million yuan, which is over three times the cost of a comparable diesel truck. Even with subsidies, the price remains at 900,000 yuan [1] - Companies are attempting to share costs through industry chain binding in the recent collaborations, but this does not address the fundamental cost issues [1] - Hebei Sheneng's introduction of a "wind-solar-storage hydrogen" model claims to reduce hydrogen production costs below market prices, but this relies on the unrealistic assumption that green electricity prices remain below 0.3 yuan/kWh [2] - The actual cost of hydrogen production is significantly higher due to low operational rates of decentralized hydrogen production facilities and high transportation costs, with terminal hydrogen prices unlikely to fall below 40 yuan/kg [2] - The reliance on policy subsidies for operational cost advantages raises concerns about sustainability once subsidies are reduced [2] Infrastructure Challenges - The infrastructure issue of "no hydrogen refueling stations" is a significant barrier, with only about 500 hydrogen stations built by mid-2025, mostly concentrated in specific regions, which is insufficient for cross-province logistics [2] - Existing hydrogen stations face low operational loads, with an average utilization rate of less than 30%, indicating a stagnation in the growth of new stations [2] - The high costs associated with building hydrogen stations, which can exceed 3 million yuan per station, further deter capital investment [3] Application Scenarios - The collaboration between Zhika Technology and Yuntao Hydrogen Energy to develop a customized 18-ton vehicle acknowledges the impracticality of generic hydrogen products, as previous models lacked real-world logistics applicability [4] - The operational use of hydrogen heavy trucks is currently limited to fixed routes within companies, which does not address the broader logistics needs where over 50% of operations involve long-distance transport [4] Future Outlook - The collaborations highlight a situation of "localized optimization" rather than a systemic breakthrough in the hydrogen heavy truck industry, with each company seeking to mitigate specific challenges rather than addressing the overall market barriers [5] - For a significant breakthrough, three conditions must be met: reducing green hydrogen costs to below 25 yuan/kg, relaxing approval policies for hydrogen stations to enable large-scale construction, and establishing a profit-sharing mechanism among vehicle manufacturers, energy providers, and logistics companies [5] - Current efforts are seen as preparatory steps towards a future critical point rather than immediate solutions to the industry's challenges [5]