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鲍威尔“鸽声”点燃看涨情绪 分析师高喊亚洲股汇双涨在即
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-08-25 01:57
Core Viewpoint - The speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole symposium has sparked bullish sentiment in Asian markets, with expectations of potential interest rate cuts in September, leading to a strong start for Asian equities and currencies [2][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Analysts predict that if the market's expectations for rate cuts intensify before the September Federal Open Market Committee meeting, Asian stock markets will be positively impacted [3]. - The U.S. stock market saw significant gains, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching a new high for the year, while emerging market currencies ended a six-day decline due to Powell's comments leading to a depreciation of the dollar [2]. Group 2: Analyst Insights - Gerald Gan from Reed Capital believes that controlled appreciation of the yen will not severely impact Japanese risk assets, suggesting a potential for continued growth in the Japanese stock market next year [3]. - Priyanka Kishore from Asia Decoded notes that a weaker dollar may temporarily support Asian currencies, but any gains could be short-lived unless the Fed commits to more substantial easing measures [3]. - Hebe Chen from Vantage Markets indicates that Powell's signals could help mend underlying market vulnerabilities, particularly in tech-heavy markets like Japan and Taiwan, where sentiment is more fragile [3]. - Jamie Halse from Senjin Capital suggests that lower U.S. interest rates may lead to capital flowing out of the U.S. in search of higher returns elsewhere, which could benefit Asian economies [3]. - Anna Wu from VanEck Associates highlights that Powell's dovish stance has alleviated concerns about September rate cuts, boosting market risk sentiment, particularly for Japanese equities [3]. - Tim Waterer from KCM Trade emphasizes that Powell's moderate tone at the Jackson Hole meeting has been well-received by risk asset markets, potentially benefiting Asian economies [3]. Group 3: Currency and Interest Rate Dynamics - Marito Ueda from SBI Liquidity Market points out that while Powell's comments suggest a possible rate cut in September, he is not firmly committed, indicating that the dollar-yen exchange rate may not break its volatility range [3]. - Kazuya Fujiwara from Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities notes that Japanese government bond prices may stabilize due to lower U.S. rates, but the upside is limited due to expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike [3]. - Yusuke Matsuo from Mizuho Securities states that the Bank of Japan is considering rate hikes while the Fed is contemplating cuts, leading to expectations of yen appreciation and dollar depreciation [3][4].