今日必读🔊特朗普将就伊朗局势发表全国讲话🚢伊朗酝酿霍尔木兹海峡收费机制💴高盛撤回今年中国降息10基点预测获取免费中文电子报《彭博财经早茶》与音频播报，聚焦中国与全球市场最新动向，并有周末特别推送。A daily Chinese-language briefing and audio broadcast of what's moving markets in China and around the world. Plus, a weekend edition. https://t.co/ZYWAYxz1qX ...

Group 1 - The stock market valuations are still considered unattractive, and if there is a significant market decline, the company will utilize its cash reserves [1] - Apple remains the largest single investment for the company, and selling Apple stock too early is viewed as a mistake. The company estimates it has made over $100 billion from its investment in Apple [2] - The company expressed uncertainty about whether it would lower interest rates if it were in charge of the Federal Reserve [3] Group 2 - The company is still involved in investment decisions but will not override any decisions made by CEO Abel that are deemed incorrect [4]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records discuss the impact of inflation and monetary policy in the context of the Chinese economy and global economic conditions, particularly focusing on the effects of high oil prices and input inflation on economic growth and monetary policy responses. Key Points and Arguments Inflation and Economic Indicators - March PPI is expected to turn positive at 1% year-on-year, while April CPI may rise to 1.47% due to base effects [1] - Export growth of 22% year-on-year in January-February has contributed to manufacturing recovery, but high oil prices (over $150) could lead to a 5%-8% decline in global GDP, triggering an input recession [1][2] - The divergence in interest rates between the US and China reflects the independent monetary policy stance of China, with short-term US rates rising rapidly while Chinese short-term rates are declining [1][4] Market Reactions to Input Inflation - The market's pricing logic for input inflation focuses on the slope and persistence of inflation, with oil prices rising approximately 42.8% month-on-month in March, leading to an expected PPI increase of 1.3% [2] - Current interest rates are close to market expectations, indicating that the market has adequately priced in March's inflation, although some participants believe there is still room for rates to rise due to uncertainties surrounding the duration of the conflict [2] Risks and Misconceptions - The market may overestimate the economy's ability to withstand high oil prices and underestimate the transmission pressure on Chinese exports [3] - Input inflation, driven by supply-side factors like rising oil prices, can suppress demand and potentially lead to stagflation, with predictions of a significant global economic downturn if oil prices remain high [3] - Optimistic views suggest that China may experience a "grab export" phenomenon similar to the pandemic period, but this is contradicted by the reality that rising oil prices will increase production costs, affecting China's competitive advantage [3] Domestic Monetary Policy Considerations - The domestic central bank's approach to input inflation differs fundamentally from that of developed countries, focusing more on economic growth rather than solely on inflation metrics [4] - Recent policy signals include a significant MLF operation on March 25, 2026, indicating a commitment to maintaining liquidity despite inflationary pressures [4] - The central bank's intention to keep monetary policy accommodative is reflected in the continued decline of short-term interest rates, contrasting with the rising short-term rates in the US [4] Additional Important Content - The potential for overseas central banks to raise interest rates in response to input inflation could lead to reduced total demand, significantly impacting China's export-driven growth [3] - The overall economic environment is different from the expansive fiscal and monetary conditions during the pandemic, limiting the effectiveness of similar strategies in the current context [3]

老师这两篇宏观长文的整体其实在说的就是一件事，那就是加密市场在为错误的尾部风险恐慌。浅浅理解了一下，加息解决不了油价，只会让脆弱的就业市场直接硬着陆。如果宏观真的崩了，美联储的底牌只剩降息。再看一眼币本位的 OI 和 ETF 净流入，大机构没下车，而散户在为降息延后恐慌。近三个月的 BTC ETF 流入量还是挺乐观的SUN XIAOCHUAN(Emperor of Xinjin) (@sun_xinjin):加息的风险被高估了1）22年的恶性通胀本质上是由“工资-通胀”恶性螺旋驱动，当时就业很紧（尤其服务业），工资增速高，居民储蓄率高，外加俄乌冲突引起供给侧冲击。现在的情况完全不一样，就业已经在危险区，工资增速也下来了，加息不但解决不了供给侧的问题，反而还容易带崩企业融资和失业。 https://t.co/ro6h3Txs6s ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not available Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the aluminum industry are neutral, with carbon neutrality controlling capacity expansion, domestic supply reaching its ceiling, weak downstream demand, and a continued slump in the real - estate market, as well as volatile short - term macro - sentiment [2]. - The basis shows a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 35,619 tons to 452,044 tons last week, remaining neutral. The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average while the 20 - day moving average is upward, also neutral. The main positions are net long and the long positions are increasing, which is bullish [2]. - In the long run, carbon neutrality will drive changes in the aluminum industry and is bullish for aluminum prices. However, macro - sentiment is volatile, and attention should be paid to Middle East events [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - The fundamental situation of aluminum is neutral, with carbon neutrality limiting capacity expansion, weak downstream demand, and changeable short - term macro - sentiment. The basis is bearish, inventory is neutral, the price trend is neutral, and the main positions are bullish. Long - term carbon neutrality is bullish for aluminum prices, and attention should be paid to macro - events [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - Bullish factors include carbon neutrality controlling capacity expansion, geopolitical disturbances in Russia and Ukraine affecting Russian aluminum supply, and potential interest rate cuts [3]. - Bearish factors are the unoptimistic global economy, high aluminum prices suppressing downstream consumption, and the cancellation of export tax rebates for aluminum products [3]. Daily Summary - Shanghai's spot price was 70,770 yesterday, down 375; today it is 70,870, down 400. Nanchu's spot price was 70,690, down 450. The SHFE inventory increased by 29,728 tons to 136,300 tons this week, and the LME inventory decreased by 425 tons to 74,750 tons [4]. Supply - Demand Balance - The supply - demand balance of aluminum in China from 2018 - 2024 shows that there was a supply shortage from 2018 - 2023, and a supply surplus is expected in 2024. In 2024, the production is 43.1227 million tons, the net import is 1.9616 million tons, the apparent consumption is 45.025 million tons, the actual consumption is 44.875 million tons, and the supply - demand balance is 0.15 million tons [24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has a significant impact on the global energy supply and financial markets. The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has led to a sharp decline in oil exports from Middle Eastern countries, and also affected the prices of various commodities and the performance of stock markets [6][7][19]. - The Fed maintains the federal funds rate target range and shows a cautious stance. It has adjusted inflation and economic growth expectations, and the future interest - rate adjustment path is more conservative [7]. - The prices of different commodities show different trends. Some commodities are affected by supply - demand relationships, geopolitical factors, and macro - economic factors, and their price trends are complex and variable [4][11][13]. - The A - share market has been affected by external geopolitical shocks, but there is a technical need for a rebound after the decline. However, due to the uncertainty of the Middle East situation, the real stabilization of the market may require patience [18][19][20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Chemicals - **Price Changes**: On March 25, 2026, compared with March 24, 2026, among chemical products, the prices of natural rubber, 20 - number glue, and crude oil increased, with increases of 0.555%, 0.977%, and 0.149% respectively; the prices of other products such as plastic, polypropylene PP, and PTA decreased, with the largest decline of 2.884% for ЬХ [4]. Macro News - **Middle East Energy Crisis**: Iran's energy facilities were attacked, and Iran retaliated by targeting the energy facilities of the US and some Middle Eastern countries. The oil exports of Middle Eastern countries have dropped significantly, with a decrease of about 61% - 71% compared with the average level in February [6]. - **Fed Policy**: The Fed maintains the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% - 3.75%, and the future interest - rate adjustment path is more conservative. It has also adjusted inflation and economic growth expectations [7]. - **China - US Relations and Domestic Policy**: China and the US will continue to communicate about Trump's visit to China. China has launched a second - round pilot project to extend the land contract for another 30 years [8]. Main Variety Morning Meeting Views Agricultural Products - **Sugar**: The international sugar price is supported by the reduction of production expectations in major producing countries and high oil prices. The domestic sugar price may fluctuate within a range in the short term, with the upper pressure around 5460 - 5470 yuan and the lower support at 5400 yuan [11]. - **Corn**: The price has broken through the previous shock range, and the market sentiment has weakened. One can pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on the rebound, with the lower support at 2360 yuan/ton [11]. - **Peanut**: The supply is tight, and the oil mill's purchase provides support, but the food - grade peanut consumption is weak. It is expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short term, and one can take a wait - and - see or range - trading strategy [11]. - **Pig**: The supply is sufficient, the market is oversupplied, and the price is still looking for a bottom. The short position can be reduced [11]. - **Egg**: The spot price is stable and slightly strong, showing a pattern of near - strong and far - weak. The short - term disk is mainly fluctuating and strong, and it is recommended to operate intraday [13]. - **Jujube**: The market is in the off - season of consumption, and the supply exceeds demand. The disk is in a bottom - shock pattern, and it is recommended to operate intraday within the range [13]. - **Cotton**: The supply is slightly affected by the issuance of import quotas, and the demand in the traditional peak season is fulfilled. The price is under short - term callback pressure, but there is support around 15200 yuan. One can consider going long at the support level [13]. Energy and Chemicals - **Caustic Soda**: The price is rising, and the export is expected to strengthen, but one needs to be vigilant against the risk of the near - month contract correction [13]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply is stable, and the iron - water output provides support, but the price may fluctuate due to geopolitical factors. One can wait for the opportunity to go long at a low price after the correction [15]. - **Double - offset Paper**: The supply is abundant, the demand is weak, the inventory is accumulating, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with obvious upper pressure [15]. - **Urea**: The supply is sufficient, the demand is weak, and the futures price may continue to operate at a high level in a consolidation state [15]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Precious Metals**: The price of gold and silver is supported by the uncertainty of the Middle East situation, the slowdown of the US dollar's rise, and the long - term demand, and it is operating in a high - level shock state [15]. - **Copper and Aluminum**: The price has followed the market to correct due to the change in geopolitical risk sentiment. One should wait patiently for the price to stop falling and stabilize [15][17]. - **Alumina**: The supply may increase, and one can take a long - biased view at a low price, but be vigilant against macro risks [17]. Ferrous Metals - **Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil**: The inventory is decreasing, the demand is increasing, and the price is supported at a low level. One needs to pay attention to the impact of geopolitical factors and raw - material price fluctuations [17]. - **Ferroalloys**: The short - term cost is supported, and the idea is to go long on the correction, but there is a risk of chasing the high [17]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply is expected to increase, the demand is weak, and after the price breaks through the key resistance, one should be cautious and wait and see, and be vigilant against the correction risk [17][18]. Option Finance - **Stock Index and Option**: On March 24, A - share indexes rose, and the trading volume of options changed. Trend investors can pay attention to the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can trade according to the price trend. The A - share market is affected by external factors, and the real stabilization may require patience [18][20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stainless - steel futures price is expected to fluctuate strongly, break through the MA10 pressure, and the upper limit to be concerned about is 14,500 yuan/ton. The raw material supply is shrinking, the production profit of stainless - steel plants has improved, but the cost support has moved up. The downstream demand is in the traditional off - season, and exports will face pressure. The current inventory level is basically the same as that of the same period last year, and the inventory pressure is controllable. With the resumption of work of downstream enterprises, it is gradually entering the destocking cycle. The long - position atmosphere is relatively strong in terms of technical analysis [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 14,290 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring increase of 255 yuan/ton; the spread between the 05 - 06 contracts of stainless - steel is 55 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The net long - position volume of the top 20 futures positions is - 1,434 hands, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 1,610 hands; the position volume of the main contract is 124,889 hands, with a ring - to - ring increase of 6,453 hands. The warehouse receipt quantity is 43,659 tons, with a ring - to - ring increase of 1,934 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 14,950 yuan/ton, with no change; the market price of scrap stainless - steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,750 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis of stainless - steel is 435 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring increase of 30 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, with a ring - to - ring increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron output is 21,400 metal tons, with no change. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 23,861.23 tons, with a ring - to - ring increase of 11,020.74 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 996,100 tons, with a ring - to - ring increase of 100,700 tons. The SMM1 nickel spot price is 136,150 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 1,700 yuan/ton; the average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) nationwide is 1,105 yuan/nickel point, with no change. The monthly Chinese chromite output is 757,800 tons, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 26,900 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless - steel is 1.8581 million tons, with a ring - to - ring increase of 110,900 tons; the weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless - steel is 624,200 tons, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 12,800 tons. The monthly export volume of stainless - steel is 458,500 tons, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 29,500 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 58,769.96 million square meters, with a ring - to - ring increase of 5,313.26 million square meters. The monthly output of excavators is 37,300 units, with a ring - to - ring increase of 3,700 units. The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 32,100 units, with a ring - to - ring increase of 9,500 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 10,000 units, with a ring - to - ring increase of 1,000 units [2] 3.6 Industry News - The US - Iran negotiation is in a stalemate. Trump said the US and Iran had a "strong" dialogue and formed the main points of an agreement, and would suspend attacks on its energy facilities for 5 days. But Iran has repeatedly denied having a dialogue with the US. - State Power Investment Corporation plans to invest 200 billion yuan in 2026, a year - on - year increase of 17%. In the first quarter, it will complete an investment of 23 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 35%. - US Vice - President Vance had a phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to discuss the efforts to start negotiations with Iran and the elements of a potential agreement to end the war with Iran. Netanyahu said he had a phone call with Trump and emphasized that Israel was still attacking Iran and Lebanon. - Fed's Goolsbee said inflation is the primary risk, not ruling out the possibility of raising interest rates, and still retaining the space for interest - rate cuts this year. Milan said that if there are second - round effects of inflation and wage increases, interest rates may need to be raised, but currently does not think it is necessary to consider raising interest rates. Daly said too much forward - looking guidance would create a false sense of certainty and still expects four interest - rate cuts in 2026 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report expects Shanghai zinc to stabilize and adjust, and suggests paying attention to the range of 22,500 - 23,500 yuan/ton [3][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 22,975 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 175 yuan/ton; the 05 - 06 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is - 25 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 5 yuan/ton [3]. - The LME three - month zinc quotation is 3,103 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 47 US dollars/ton; the total position of Shanghai zinc is 185,428 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 5,547 lots [3]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is - 1,772 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 287 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt is 0 tons, with no change [3]. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 152,266 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 4,918 tons; the LME inventory is 117,175 tons, with a day - on - day decrease of 500 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,860 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 190 yuan/ton; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 23,000 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 630 yuan/ton [3]. - The basis of the ZN main contract is - 115 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 15 yuan/ton; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 20.79 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 3.82 US dollars/ton [3]. - The ex - factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 19,610 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 200 yuan/ton; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,950 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 50 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Balance - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is 29,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 55,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is 9,200 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 84,300 tons [3]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - The global zinc mine output of ILZSG is 1.0104 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 59,600 tons; the domestic refined zinc output is 675,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 21,000 tons [3]. - The zinc ore import volume is 414,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 180,800 tons; the refined zinc import volume is 4,518.01 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 19,594.63 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 3,866.38 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1,847.88 tons [3]. 3.5 Social Inventory - The zinc social inventory is 236,000 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 4,700 tons [3]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - The output of galvanized sheets is 2.4 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 60,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.38 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 30,000 tons [3]. - The new housing construction area is 587.6996 million square meters, with a month - on - month increase of 53.1326 million square meters; the housing completion area is 63.2042 million square meters, with a month - on - month decrease of 540.2771 million square meters [3]. - The automobile output is 3.4115 million vehicles, with a month - on - month decrease of 107,500 vehicles; the air - conditioner output is 21.6289 million units, with a month - on - month increase of 6.6029 million units [3]. 3.7 Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option of zinc is 19.43%, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.25%; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option of zinc is 19.43%, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.25% [3]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money option of zinc is 23.91%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.31%; the 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money option of zinc is 20.39%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.17% [3]. 3.8 Industry News - The US - Iran negotiation is in a stalemate. Trump said the US and Iran had a "strong" dialogue and formed the main points of an agreement, and would suspend attacking its energy facilities for 5 days. But Iran has repeatedly denied having a dialogue with the US [3]. - State Power Investment Corporation plans to invest 200 billion yuan in 2026, a year - on - year increase of 17%. In the first quarter, it will complete an investment of 23 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 35% [3]. - US Vice - President Vance talked with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu about the efforts to start negotiations with Iran and the elements of a potential agreement to end the war with Iran [3]. - Fed's Goolsbee said inflation is the primary risk, not ruling out the possibility of raising interest rates, and still retaining the space for rate cuts this year. Milan said if there are second - round effects of inflation and wage increases, interest rates may need to be raised. Daly said too much forward - looking guidance would create a false sense of certainty [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Neutral [8] - Silver: Neutral [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9] - Options: Put on hold [9] 2. Core View of the Report - Geopolitical tensions have shown signs of easing, leading to a rebound in precious metal prices. However, the possibility of a peace agreement remains uncertain. Therefore, it is expected that the prices of gold and silver will mainly fluctuate in the near future [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - US President Trump stated that the US and Iran had "strong" talks and formed the main points of an agreement, suspending attacks on Iranian energy facilities for 5 days. Trump also said that the US was in consultations with Iran to reach a broader agreement, and an agreement "could be reached within 5 days or even less." However, Iran has repeatedly denied having talks with the US. The Iranian Foreign Ministry said that Trump's statement aimed to lower energy prices and gain time for military operations. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said that inflation is currently the main risk facing the US economy, and he does not rule out the possibility of raising interest rates. But if the Iran conflict is quickly resolved, there may still be a rate cut later this year [1]. Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On March 23, 2026, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 1,041.78 yuan/gram and closed at 940.00 yuan/gram, a change of -9.55% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume on that day was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, the contract opened at 992.80 yuan/gram and closed at 980.00 yuan/gram, a 4.26% increase from the afternoon close. - On March 23, 2026, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 17,693.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 15,411.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of -12.56% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume on that day was 1,259,324 lots, and the open interest was 222,721 lots. In the night session, the contract opened at 17,000 yuan/kilogram and closed at 17,246 yuan/kilogram, an 11.91% increase from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On March 23, 2026, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.34%, a decrease of 0.59 BP from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields was 0.49%, a change of -0.38 BP from the previous trading day [3]. Position and Trading Volume Changes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2604 contract on March 23, 2026, the long positions decreased by 4,018 lots compared to the previous day, and the short positions decreased by 1,300 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai Gold contracts on the previous trading day was 854,620 lots, a change of 55.84% from the previous trading day. - On the Ag2606 contract, the long positions decreased by 1,163 lots, and the short positions decreased by 2,122 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 2,026,252 lots, a change of 45.74% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - In the precious metal ETFs, the gold ETF position was 1,056.99 tons yesterday, a decrease of 5.14 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,514 tons, an increase of 265 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On March 23, 2026, the domestic premium for gold was 35.48 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was 557.29 yuan/kilogram. - The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange yesterday was approximately 61.00, a change of -0.15% from the previous trading day. The foreign gold-silver ratio was 64.26, a change of -4.35% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On the previous trading day (March 23, 2026), the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 104,370 kilograms, a change of 11.07% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 478,842 kilograms, a change of 15.89% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 30 kilograms [7]. Strategy - Gold: It is expected that the price of gold will mainly fluctuate in the near future, and the fluctuation range of the Au2604 contract may be between 950 yuan/gram and 1,000 yuan/gram. - Silver: Similar to gold in terms of macroeconomics, the price of silver is also expected to maintain a fluctuating pattern, and the fluctuation range of the Ag2606 contract may be between 16,000 yuan/kilogram and 18,000 yuan/kilogram [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of palladium is expected to be mainly volatile, while the price of platinum is expected to show some recovery [2] - The trend strength of platinum is 0, and the trend strength of palladium is also 0, indicating a neutral outlook for both [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Macro and Industry News - Japan's government is considering intervening in the oil futures market [4] - The US has warned the EU that it will lose preferential access to liquefied natural gas if it fails to pass a trade agreement [4] - Regarding the Fed's stance, Goolsbee believes inflation is the primary risk, leaving the door open for rate hikes while still retaining the possibility of rate cuts this year. Mester thinks rate hikes may be needed if there are second - round inflation effects and wage increases, but currently doesn't see it as necessary and expects four rate cuts in 2026. Daly warns that too much forward guidance can create a false sense of certainty [4] - On the Iran situation, Trump claims to have had productive talks with Iran, pausing attacks on Iranian energy facilities for five days, and says an agreement could be reached in five days with 15 points of consensus. However, Iran's foreign ministry, senior leadership, and media deny having negotiations with the US. Israel's prime minister says Israel will continue to attack Iran and Lebanon, and Trump hopes to use military results to reach an agreement. Iran says it has full control of the Strait of Hormuz and doesn't need to deploy mines. Iran has received messages from friendly countries about US - requested peace talks and responded according to its principles, and the US - Iran communication has occurred through Egypt and Turkey, but the US hasn't accepted Iran's core conditions [4]