本周各家券商策略分析师的观点较为一致。整体看反弹，引发上周股指调整的多重因素在周末都有了好转。 兴证策略张启尧团队称，海外冲击影响下中国资产已调整出性价比，随着海外风险释放带来的情绪冲击逐步落地、消化，中国资 产有望凭借自身独立逻辑迎来修复。 首先，周五联储主席威廉姆斯表明"通胀上行风险有所减弱，就业面临的下行风险已经增强，短期内有降息空间"，市 场对于美联储12月的降息概率由此前的30%大幅上升至当前的71%，压制全球风险偏好的关键因素正在迎来缓和。 其次，流动性预期缓和、全球AI应用持续迭代升级的背景下，市场对于"AI泡沫"的担忧也有望缓解。 更重要的是，本轮中国资产上涨具备自身的独立逻辑，将是后续中国资产修复的重要支撑。包括大国竞争力增强、新 动能景气释放、政策转型思路明朗、经济基本面平稳，这些内部确定性都不会随着海外扰动而发生任何变化。 | 类别 | 汇寿Al基础设施可持续性的焦虑也 因降息推后的预期而放大。 | | --- | --- | | | 解风险的方式。 求在外出利润"的故事，不断提升在全 | | | 球的定价权，重点关注的行业包括化工 | | | 有色和新能源等。 | | | 来源：内容汇 ...

我们面对的是联储的"人造迷雾"，强行制造降息悬念，增加预期弹性；已有数据完全足 以支撑12月再次降息的发生。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人钟天 在10月的FOMC中，鲍威尔将当前环境称之为"迷雾中开车，需小心行驶"，并将市场预期向12月不降 息方向引导。自那之后，联储官员普遍转向鹰派，强调通胀的上行风险并支持12月暂停降息：12月降 息预期一度从完全定价跌至不足30%。 鲍威尔的本意或是引导市场定价预期的回摆，保持预期管理的有效性，但从结果来看有些玩脱了，至少 9月非农的数据指向了12月继续降息的必要性。 由于非官方的ADP小非农以及谘商会等数据在9-10月表现较差，此前市场对于9月非农的新增就业预 期并不高（约5万人左右水平）；与此同时，在"供需双弱"的背景下，市场却并没有对失业率的上行形 成一致预期。换言之，此前6-8月失业率的再度上行并没有得到足够的重视，但这恰恰是9月非农报告 中最"扎眼"的部分。 哪怕9月新增就业再怎么超预期，也仅在11.9万人水平；考虑到6月与8月都是负增长，在如此大的波 动中，更无法得出非农已经"企稳"的结论。更何况，从三个月平均增长水平来看，与今年上半年都有 明显差距。 在劳动力 ...

热搜。 此外，昨日，中国火箭军发布视频《战地绝响！这是中国独一无二的音符！》。 11月22日，中国军网发布视频，配文："大子弹，量大管够"。 综合自：每日经济新闻、 中国火箭军、中国军网 责编：万健祎 校对： 王朝全 版权声明 证券时报各平台所有原创内容，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载。我社保留追 究相关 行 为主体 法律责任的权利。 11月23日下午，"中国火箭军：假如战争今天爆发"的话题冲上热搜第一。 当天，中国火箭军发布视频《假如战争今天爆发，这就是我的回答！》以军歌形式，展示部队全时待战的战备 状态。 点击关键字可查看 潜望系列深度报道丨 股事会专栏 丨 投资小红书 丨 e公司调查 丨 时报会客厅 丨 十大明星私募访谈 丨 刚刚！小米回应"汽车工厂内电池产线起火" 丨 中东突发！ 丨 俄乌，重大突发！ 丨 字节跳动，大 消息！风投女王出手！ 丨 中美两军举行年度会晤 丨 "鸽声"提振市场！美股全线上涨！ 丨 降息，突 发！美联储，重磅发声！ 丨 A股重磅！603037、300620，重大资产重组！ 丨 证监会出手！ 688669、002963，被立案！ 丨 比特币，崩了！近40万人爆仓！ 丨 刚 ...

本周，大A的主旋律就是一个字"跌"。 沪指满4000减200，一路跌破市场预期的3930,3900,3850等一众重要支撑，周五甚至在最低点收盘。 科创这轮调整幅度最大，从最高点1588.83，已经回落14%，再来6%就是技术性熊市了。 创业板失守3000点，最高到现在为止调整12%。 中证1000反倒调整幅度有限，仅5.59%，主要的跌幅来自于周五。 从各个重要指数其实可以看出，这轮调整主要来自于双创，即科技、AI、新能源等此前主线题材。 不单单是A股，外围本周都发生不小的调整。 纳斯达克下跌6.52% 标普500下跌4.18% 恒生指数下跌6.32% 恒生科技指数就比较惨了，这轮从高到底已经下跌19.26%，逼近技术性熊市。 另外日韩台等主要指数这轮都跟随着美股一起大幅度调整。 这样对比下来，A股的调整幅度更大，毕竟前面3个月A股的整体涨幅更多。 现在大家最关心的问题是，"牛"还在不在？下周A股会不会有反弹？ 先回答第二个问题 周五晚间美股出现反弹，不出意外，又出来"救市"了。 美股开盘前，先是不常出镜的纽约联储主席威廉姆斯发表讲话"表示通胀上行风险有所减弱，就业风险下行风险已经增强，短期仍有降息空间"。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent trading week saw a significant decline in the A-share market, with only 520 stocks rising, indicating a rare occurrence and potential market instability ahead [1][3]. Market Performance - During the week of November 17 to 21, the A-share market experienced continuous adjustments, culminating in a notable drop on Friday [3]. - Major indices, including the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300, fell below the 60-day moving average, with the Wind All A Index touching the 20-week moving average for the first time since late June [4]. Market Sentiment and Expectations - Despite the recent downturn, there remains a prevailing expectation for market recovery in the upcoming week, as historical patterns suggest quick rebounds following significant declines [5]. - The average stock price in the All A market closed at 24.72 yuan, closely mirroring the closing price of 24.74 yuan on September 4, indicating a potential support level [5]. Sector Analysis - Huazhang Securities reports that the current adjustment phase is nearing historical comparability, with limited further downside expected. Growth technology is anticipated to be the strongest sector in the next upward trend [7]. - Historical data suggests that growth styles typically adjust for 1-2 months with a decline of 15%-20%, while the current maximum adjustment for growth styles is 10.7% over one month [7]. External Influences - The recent market decline is attributed to weakness in global markets, particularly concerns over interest rate cuts and the AI bubble. Despite strong earnings reports, Nvidia's stock fell, reflecting broader market fears [8]. - Following comments from New York Fed President Williams, expectations for a December interest rate cut surged to approximately 70%, nearly doubling from the previous day [8]. Upcoming Events - On November 24, the IPO of domestic GPU company Moore Threads will take place, with an issue price set at 114.28 yuan per share [12]. - The MSCI index adjustments will take effect on November 24, with 17 new A-shares added and 16 removed, impacting market dynamics [13].

Core Economic Insights - The Federal Reserve's acknowledgment of a K-shaped economy highlights the disparity between low-income consumers, who are downgrading their consumption, and high-income individuals, who continue to spend lavishly [3][5] - The aggressive interest rate hikes initiated in 2022 have led to a significant divide in consumer spending, with low-income groups experiencing stagnation or decline in credit card spending, while high-income groups drive overall credit card consumption growth [5][7] Consumer Behavior - Research indicates that a 1% increase in the federal funds rate results in a 0.9% decrease in credit card spending, disproportionately affecting lower-income consumers who face a twofold reduction in spending compared to higher-income individuals [7] - As of November 2025, the 30-day delinquency rate on credit cards reached 4.8%, the highest since the 2008 financial crisis, while the bad debt rate for buy-now-pay-later services surged to 9.5% [7] Corporate Sector Dynamics - Capital expenditures in the AI sector are primarily concentrated among tech giants like Amazon, Microsoft, and Google, which possess substantial cash reserves, while small businesses struggle under high-interest rates [8][10] - The National Federation of Independent Business reported that small business confidence has remained below the 50-year average for 22 consecutive months, with credit access at its most challenging level since the European debt crisis in 2012 [10] Wealth Distribution and Policy Implications - The wealth concentration in the U.S. is stark, with the top 1% holding over 32% of the nation's wealth, while the bottom 50% possess only 2.5% [10][12] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate policies have inadvertently exacerbated wealth inequality, benefiting wealthy savers while placing a heavier burden on low-income borrowers [12][18] Future Outlook - A potential interest rate cut in the first half of 2026 is anticipated, but it is expected to be cautious and gradual rather than aggressive [14][16] - The impact of any rate cuts will likely be uneven, providing relief to lower-income consumers and small businesses while potentially inflating asset values for the wealthy [16][18] Structural Solutions - Long-term solutions to the K-shaped economy require fiscal policy changes, including a fairer tax system and targeted social transfers, which are currently hindered by political divisions [18][20]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuating market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cut in December, influenced by recent statements from New York Fed President John Williams, which have shifted the probability of a rate cut from 30% to over 60% [2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Stance - New York Fed President John Williams indicated that current policies are slightly tight, with increasing risks in the labor market, suggesting there is room for a rate cut [2][3]. - Williams noted that inflation risks are diminishing (current CPI year-on-year at 3%), while unemployment risks are rising (September unemployment rate at 4.4%), leading to a shift in monetary policy from "significantly tight" to "moderately tight" [2][3]. Group 2: Diverging Opinions within the Fed - The Federal Reserve is currently divided into "dovish" and "hawkish" camps, focusing on whether inflation will continue to cool and the extent of labor market weakness [3]. - Key figures in the dovish camp include Williams, who supports a rate cut, and Fed Governor Milan, who advocates for a 25 basis point cut if voting is critical [4]. - The cautious camp includes Dallas Fed President Logan, who believes a rate cut in December is unlikely, and Boston Fed President Collins, who prefers to maintain current rates to observe inflation resilience [4]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following Williams' remarks, major indices such as the Dow and S&P 500 futures turned positive, with the Nasdaq rising by 0.88% and tech stocks like Nvidia recovering from earlier losses [6]. - Bitcoin rebounded from a low of $80,600 to $84,000, alleviating some liquidation risks for 360,000 traders [6]. - Gold experienced a short-term increase of $10 but still recorded a weekly decline of 0.44%, while U.S. Treasury yields fell as the market anticipated a more accommodative stance [6]. Group 4: Upcoming Economic Data - The Federal Reserve's next meeting is scheduled for December 9-10, 2025, with key economic data releases, including the November CPI on December 18 and non-farm payroll data on December 16 [8]. - The capital market remains highly sensitive to rate cut expectations, with investors closely monitoring Fed officials' statements and focusing on stable earnings from tech leaders and interest-sensitive assets [8].

有分析称，像威廉姆斯（美联储三号人物）这样级别的官员释放鸽派信号，帮助美股从AI概念股的低 迷中稍微缓过一口气，也推高了交易员对美联储下月再度降息（今年第三次）的押注。 根据CME"美联储观察"工具的数据，联邦基金利率期货目前隐含的12月"降息25个基点"概率已升至70% 以上，前一天这一数字还只有39.1%。 来源：中国经济网 美东时间周五，三大指数集体收涨，道指涨幅最大，上涨1.08%。 然而，周五的反弹仍不足以弥补本周之前的大跌。纳指本周累计跌2.74%，标普500指数跌1.95%，道指 跌1.91%。 纽约联储主席威廉姆斯周五表示："货币政策仍略显紧缩，即便近期政策调整前略有放松。因此，我认 为短期仍有空间进一步调整联邦基金利率目标区间，使政策立场更接近中性区间，并保持我们两大目标 之间的平衡。" 消息面上，多位美联储官员发声。交易员重新将美联储12月降息概率的预期提高至50%以上。 美联储副主席杰斐逊表示，当前与人工智能相关的美股上涨潮不太可能重演20世纪90年代末互联网泡沫 的崩盘情景，主要原因是如今的AI相关企业更为成熟，且拥有真实的盈利能力。 美联储理事米兰表示，若其投票成为关键一票，将支持降 ...

Market Performance - US stock indices reversed their downward trend, with all three major indices closing up by approximately 1% on November 21 [4][3] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 1.08% to 46,245.41 points, the S&P 500 increased by 0.98% to 6,602.99 points, while the Nasdaq Composite fell by 0.88% to 22,273.08 points [4] - Weekly performance showed all three indices had declined, with the Nasdaq down 2.74%, the Dow down 1.91%, and the S&P 500 down 1.95% [4] Technology Sector - The decline in technology stocks narrowed, with the US Technology Seven Giants Index rising by 0.71% [5] - Nvidia's stock fluctuated, initially dropping over 4% before recovering to a gain of 1.9%, while Google surged by 3.35% [5] - Year-to-date performance for major tech stocks showed Nvidia down 0.94%, Apple up 1.97%, and Google up 3.35% [6] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 1.23%, with notable gains in NIO (over 3%), Beike, Li Auto, and Tencent Music (over 2%) [5] - Year-to-date performance for key Chinese stocks included Alibaba down 0.20%, Netease down 0.28%, and JD.com up 1.94% [7] Gold Market - Spot gold prices rebounded above $4,100 per ounce, closing at $4,064.279 per ounce [2][9] - The gold market experienced volatility, with a weekly decline of 0.44% [9] Federal Reserve Signals - Federal Reserve officials indicated a potential interest rate cut in December, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut rising from 39.1% to approximately 70% [2][14] - Comments from Fed officials, including Williams, suggested a dovish stance, supporting the notion of a rate cut due to current economic conditions [13][16] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting in December is expected to be contentious, with differing opinions among officials regarding the necessity of a rate cut [17][18]

美股大型科技股涨跌不一，谷歌-C、苹果、亚马逊、META均上涨，微软、特斯拉、英伟达均下跌。 当地时间11月21日，美股三大指数全线上涨，道琼斯工业指数涨逾1%，纳斯达克指数、标普500指数均涨近1%。 热门中概股多数上涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数上涨1.23%，中金科工业涨逾21%，新氧涨逾7%，涂鸦智能、有道涨逾6%，阿特斯太阳能涨逾5%，阿里巴 巴等小幅下跌。 美联储官员密集发声，纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯表示，鉴于当前政策略显紧缩，美联储在近期仍可降息。 美股三大指数全线上涨 当地时间11月21日，欧洲主要股指涨跌不一，截至收盘，英国富时100指数上涨0.13%，法国CAC40指数上涨0.02%，德国DAX指数下跌0.80%，意大利 MIB指数下跌0.60%，欧洲STOXX50指数上涨0.98%。 美股三大指数全线上涨，截至收盘，道琼斯工业指数、纳斯达克指数、标普500指数分别上涨1.08%、0.88%、0.98%。 大型科技股涨跌不一，美国科技七巨头指数上涨0.71%，谷歌-C上涨3.33%，苹果上涨1.97%，亚马逊上涨1.63%，META上涨0.87%，英伟达下跌0.97%， 特斯拉下跌1.05%， ...