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研报掘金丨中金:降领展分派预测1% 目标价维持47港元
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-19 06:31
Core Viewpoint - CICC reports that the recovery of retail property asset operations in Hong Kong may be slower than expected, leading to a downward revision of Link REIT's (0823.HK) DPU forecasts for the fiscal years 2026 to 2027, maintaining an "outperform" rating and a target price of HKD 47, implying a 5.7% expected dividend yield for fiscal year 2026 [1] Group 1: Hong Kong Retail Property Market - Link REIT faces ongoing operational pressure in both Hong Kong and mainland China, with a negative single-digit growth rate in rental renewal rates for Hong Kong retail properties in Q1 of fiscal year 2026 [1] - The average rental price per square foot decreased by 0.8% to HKD 62.8, while the occupancy rate fell by 0.2 percentage points to 97.6% [1] - Merchant sales saw a year-on-year decline narrowing from 3% to 0.8%, underperforming the overall market growth of 0.4% [1] Group 2: Mainland China Property Market - Rental renewal rates for retail properties in mainland China remain under pressure, particularly for assets located in Beijing [1] - Rental rates for office and warehouse properties in mainland China continue to face downward pressure [1] Group 3: Financing and Overseas Operations - Link REIT benefits from an improved interest rate environment, with financing costs remaining at 3.6%, unchanged from the end of fiscal year 2025, and a high proportion of fixed-term debt at 67% [1] - The operational performance of overseas businesses remains strong, with occupancy rates for retail properties in Singapore and Australia nearing full occupancy, while occupancy rates for office properties in Australia remain stable [1]