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中金缪延亮:国际货币体系新形势下人民币国际化的四条主线
中金点睛· 2025-09-29 23:35
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the gradual internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB) since the 2015 exchange rate reform, emphasizing that the current level of RMB internationalization does not match China's economic and trade scale. It identifies four new trends in the international monetary system and proposes four main lines of action to accelerate RMB internationalization [2][48]. Group 1: New Trends in the International Monetary System - The article identifies four new trends: cracks in the credibility of the US dollar, the rise of Chinese manufacturing, the restructuring of global trade and monetary systems, and the emergence of digital and tokenized financial ecosystems [3][4][26]. - The credibility of the US dollar is weakening due to persistent fiscal deficits and high inflation, as well as the weaponization of its reserve currency status [9][10]. - Chinese manufacturing has maintained a leading position globally, with a significant share of global output and exports, and is moving up the value chain [16][17]. - The restructuring of global trade relationships is evident as the US imposes tariffs, leading to a decrease in its role as the final consumer and an increase in trade among non-US countries [27][28]. Group 2: Four Main Lines to Promote RMB Internationalization - The article suggests four main lines to promote RMB internationalization: expanding the supply of RMB-denominated safe assets, enhancing the settlement and pricing functions of RMB in commodity trade, coordinating onshore and offshore RMB markets, and utilizing digital RMB and tokenized RMB assets [5][48]. - Expanding the supply of RMB safe assets is crucial, as foreign holdings of Chinese government bonds are currently below 6%, and there is a need for more offshore RMB sovereign and quasi-sovereign debt [50][51]. - Enhancing the settlement and pricing functions of RMB in key commodities, such as lithium and LNG, is essential to increase the share of RMB in trade settlements [54][55]. - Coordinating onshore and offshore RMB markets can improve market stability and liquidity, while expanding the application scenarios for digital RMB can enhance its usage in cross-border transactions [6][63][71]. Group 3: Digital and Tokenized Financial Ecosystem - The rise of digital currencies, particularly central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), is reshaping the financial landscape, providing a bridge between traditional fiat currencies and digital assets [4][43]. - The digital RMB has seen significant adoption, with over 1.8 billion wallets opened and transactions exceeding 7.3 trillion RMB, indicating a growing acceptance of digital currencies [43][72]. - Tokenization of traditional financial assets is on the rise, with initiatives to issue tokenized government bonds and other assets, creating a comprehensive digital financial ecosystem [46][72].