SAC 执证编号：S0080523070023 SFC CE Ref：BSV154 dong.wei@cicc.com.cn 证券研究报告 2025.09.21 A 股策略 A 股"长期"、"稳进"的四大条件 SAC 执证编号：S0080521070010 SFC CE Ref：BRQ876 kaisong.huang@cicc.com.cn 去年 9 月至今A股自底部阶段震荡上行，当下行情已持续一年左右时间，上证指数累计涨幅超过 40%。 本篇报告中我们系统回顾过去 20 年左右A股持续时间较长的几次上行阶段，典型如 2005-2007 年、 2013-2015 年、2019-2021 年等，分析其行情起因、背景和市场特征，供借鉴参考： 历史几次上涨阶段的行情特征及当下对比 1） 上涨行情概况：三次上涨行情均表现出持续时间较长（2-3 年左右）、整体涨幅明显、增量资金入市 带来成交显著放大的特征。行情在启动起始期均为历史"大底"（2005 年 6 月、2013 年 6 月、2019 年 1 月），投资者对后市预期极度悲观时期；从历史低点到指数层面的震荡上行，形成一定赚钱效应后，市场 波动率逐渐加大，在上涨过 ...

2025年10月6日，国际金融市场上演一场"黄金风暴"——现货黄金价格强势突破3900美元/盎司大关，最高触及3920美元，再度刷新历史纪录。这距离其首 次站上3800美元仅过去不到10天，涨势之猛、节奏之快，令全球投资者瞩目。今年以来，金价累计涨幅已超48%，部分统计甚至显示接近49%，黄金无疑 成为2025年表现最耀眼的资产之一。 此次金价"火箭式"上涨并非偶然，而是由多重利好因素共振推动，形成强劲的"三重引擎"： 美国近期经济数据持续疲软：8月JOLTS职位空缺下滑、初请失业金人数上升、芝加哥PMI跌至40.6，消费者信心指数回落……一系列信号强化了市场对美 联储开启降息周期的预期。CME"美联储观察"工具显示，10月降息25个基点的概率高达94.6%。降息将压低实际利率，显著降低持有无息资产黄金的机会 成本，吸引大量资金涌入。 9月30日，美国国会未能通过拨款法案，联邦政府于10月1日正式"关门"，为近7年来首次。政治不确定性叠加俄乌局势再度升温、中东地缘冲突发酵，全 球避险情绪急剧升温。黄金作为传统"避风港"资产，迎来大量避险资金涌入。德意志银行指出，投资者在看好股市的同时，也担忧潜在下行风险，黄金 ...

摘要 点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 2015年811汇改以来，人民币国际化稳步推进，但人民币的国际化程度与中国在全球经济与贸易中的体量仍不匹配。当前国际货币体系出现四大新形势： 一是美元信誉裂痕；二是中国制造崛起；三是全球经贸与货币体系重构；四是数字与代币化金融生态的兴起。窗口期下，人民币可围绕四条主线加速国际 化：扩大安全资产供给并完善利率与回购/衍生品体系；提高在大宗商品与关键中间品贸易中的结算与计价占比；统筹在岸—离岸人民币市场，夯实"功能 锚"；以央行数字人民币与代币化人民币资产打通高效、可编程、精准监管的跨境应用场景。我们认为，通过分阶段实施与配套风险管理，有望到中长期 明显提升人民币在储备、结算、投融资与数字金融生态中的地位。 国际货币体系的四个新形势 近年来，国际货币体系出现了四个新的形势，包括美元信誉出现裂痕、中国制造崛起、经贸关系重构以及数字金融生态的形成。 美元信誉裂痕：目前美元霸权的"双锚"呈现弱化的态势，一来美国"双赤字"和高通胀问题顽固。二来，美国滥用储备货币地位，或将关税、金融制裁等工 具"武器化"。美元的主权信用、储藏价值等法理之锚和交易、清算、定价等功能之锚都受到了 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury market is facing structural issues, including rising debt levels, declining liquidity, and increasing volatility, which are undermining the credibility of the international monetary system. The U.S. political landscape complicates the resolution of these risks, leading to a search for systemic solutions globally, particularly from countries like China [2][4][5]. Group 1: U.S. Debt and International Monetary System - The U.S. federal government debt has surpassed $36 trillion, exceeding 123% of GDP, with interest payments projected at $468 billion for the first five months of 2025, a 6.5% increase year-on-year, constituting 18% of fiscal revenue [4][9]. - The weakening of the U.S. Treasury's risk-free status and the declining dollar index are evident as the U.S. continues to face rising budget deficits and a downgraded sovereign credit rating [4][5]. - The shift towards gold as a reserve asset is notable, with its share in global official reserves nearing 20% by the end of 2024, indicating a return to commodity credit from sovereign credit [4][9]. Group 2: Fragmentation of International Governance - U.S. protectionist policies are fragmenting the post-World War II order, leading to a trust crisis in international governance and complicating global cooperation [5][6]. - The U.S. has not reduced its fiscal deficits but has instead expanded them through recent legislation, which may further erode the dollar's credibility [5][6]. - Countries are increasingly diversifying their reserves and engaging in bilateral currency settlements to reduce reliance on the dollar due to the fragmentation of international governance [5][6]. Group 3: Digital Technology and Monetary System Reconstruction - Digital technologies, including blockchain, are creating new credit support for the international monetary system, potentially alleviating the "Triffin dilemma" [6][9]. - The efficiency of international payment systems is expected to improve significantly due to advancements in digital technology, enhancing liquidity supply without increasing the base money supply [6][9]. Group 4: Emergence of a Multi-Currency System - The global economic landscape is shifting towards a multi-currency system, with regional trade integration enhancing the transactional role of non-dollar currencies [7][8]. - The share of the dollar in global reserves is projected to drop to 57.8% by 2024, the lowest in nearly 30 years, as other currencies and gold gain prominence [9][10]. - The evolution towards a multi-polar currency system is seen as a means to enhance financial stability and provide emerging economies with more options for reserve asset diversification [10][11]. Group 5: Recommendations for China - China is advised to deepen its financial market openness and promote the internationalization of the renminbi, including enhancing the renminbi bond market and diversifying foreign exchange reserves [14][25]. - The establishment of a more diversified and digitalized cross-border payment system is recommended, leveraging stablecoins and digital currencies to improve efficiency [15][26]. - Strengthening regional currency alliances and enhancing cooperation in monetary policy are suggested to support the renminbi's role in the international monetary system [16][27].

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Lujiazui Forum emphasizes the importance of financial openness and cooperation in the context of global economic changes, focusing on high-quality development and the restructuring of the international monetary system [2][3]. Group 1: Global Financial Governance - The Governor of the People's Bank of China, Pan Gongsheng, discussed four key areas for reforming global financial governance and announced eight financial policy measures aimed at addressing the instability of the current dollar-dominated international monetary system [2]. - Proposed directions for reform include reducing reliance on a single sovereign currency and promoting a competitive environment among a few strong sovereign currencies, with the RMB recognized as the third-largest payment currency globally [2]. - Emphasis on diversifying the cross-border payment system and enhancing interoperability among payment systems, alongside the accelerated application of emerging technologies in cross-border payments [2]. Group 2: Financial Openness - The Director of the Financial Regulatory Bureau, Li Yunzhe, highlighted the vast potential for high-level financial openness in China, particularly in consumer finance, technology finance, green finance, pension finance, and wealth management [3]. - The government plans to promote high-level financial openness through institutional reforms, optimizing the business environment, and strengthening the financial safety net [3][4]. Group 3: Capital Market Reforms - The Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, Wu Qing, outlined five new measures for capital market reform aimed at enhancing the market's role in supporting technological innovation and the real economy [5]. - Key measures include deepening reforms in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, enhancing the synergy between equity and debt markets, and fostering long-term capital [5][6]. - The focus on creating a more open and inclusive capital market ecosystem, including optimizing the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) system and expanding the range of products available for foreign investment [5]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The forum's positive policy direction is expected to enhance the resilience of the A-share market and improve the quality of listed companies, making A-shares more attractive to investors [6]. - Key investment areas identified include artificial intelligence, high-end manufacturing, and innovative pharmaceuticals, with a focus on fundamental analysis, valuation, and market sentiment [7].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in U.S. Treasury yields and the record $10 billion buyback operation by the U.S. Treasury have raised concerns about the sustainability and demand for U.S. Treasuries, indicating structural imbalances in the market [1][2]. Group 1: Treasury Yield Dynamics - In May, U.S. Treasury yields soared while prices fell, reflecting an oversupply and insufficient demand for Treasuries [1]. - Long-term Treasury yields exceeded 5% for three consecutive days in late May, highlighting a structural imbalance in supply and demand [1]. - The total U.S. national debt has surpassed $36 trillion, increasing by $1 trillion in less than six months [1]. Group 2: Credit Rating and Economic Concerns - The decline of the "American exceptionalism" narrative has led to decreased global confidence in U.S. assets, including Treasuries, with Moody's downgrading the U.S. sovereign credit rating from AAA to AA1 [2]. - The interest expense on U.S. debt has exceeded 10% of GDP, surpassing international warning levels [2]. - The U.S. federal government's deficit rate is projected to exceed 6% in 2024, with a debt-to-GDP ratio over 123%, significantly above the Maastricht Treaty thresholds [2]. Group 3: Buyer Dynamics - There has been a notable decrease in foreign buyers of U.S. Treasuries, with Japan and China reducing their holdings [3]. - The proportion of Treasuries held by foreign governments has dropped from 45% in 2014 to 28% in 2023, indicating a loss of confidence in U.S. creditworthiness [3]. Group 4: Domestic Demand and Federal Reserve Actions - The increasing supply of Treasuries coupled with declining demand has led to rising yields, raising questions about who will purchase these bonds [4]. - The U.S. Treasury has been unable to rely on the Federal Reserve for bond purchases, as the Fed has been reducing its balance sheet from nearly $9 trillion to over $6 trillion since 2020 [4]. - The Fed's monthly reduction of Treasury holdings has been adjusted from $60 billion to $25 billion, limiting its capacity to absorb new debt [4]. Group 5: Fiscal Policy Implications - The introduction of the "One Big Beautiful Bill" tax plan is expected to exacerbate the situation, potentially increasing the national debt by over $2 trillion [5]. - The combination of rising Treasury issuance and soaring yields, along with the uncertainty from high tariffs, has led global investors to seek safer assets, resulting in continued reductions in Treasury holdings [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of cooperation, openness, and inclusivity in navigating global uncertainties and achieving common development [1][2][3] - The 2025 Tsinghua Wudaokou Global Financial Forum highlighted the challenges of global economic governance amidst trade protectionism, geopolitical conflicts, and financial market volatility [1] - The forum discussed the restructuring of the global monetary system, international trade dynamics, and the fragmentation of geopolitical economies [1][2] Group 2 - Openness is identified as a key factor in breaking down trade barriers, allowing for the free flow of goods, services, and capital, which can enhance resource allocation and economic collaboration [2] - The U.S. unilateralism in trade is critiqued, suggesting that true trade balance requires a focus on domestic economic structure rather than solely external factors [2] - The international monetary system is undergoing significant changes, with the rise of currencies like the euro and renminbi, and innovations in mechanisms that empower developing countries in global financial governance [2] Group 3 - Cooperation is deemed essential for addressing global challenges such as climate change, public health crises, and economic instability, which transcend national borders [3] - China is highlighted for its strategy of activating domestic demand, deepening reform, and promoting technological innovation as a means to contribute to global governance [3] - The forum suggests that countries should focus on maintaining economic security, pursuing structural reforms, and enhancing international collaboration to navigate uncertainties [3]

Group 1 - The 30-year US Treasury yield has surpassed the critical 5% mark, causing significant turmoil in global capital markets [1] - The current economic situation in the US is seen as a culmination of three decades of fiscal mismanagement, leading to a clash between inflation control and growth maintenance [3] - The US's urgent call for a second round of talks following the market crash indicates a desperate attempt to stabilize the situation [4] Group 2 - China's new negotiation conditions, including the lifting of technology sanctions and promoting cross-border RMB settlements, aim to strategically undermine the US dollar system [7] - The reduction of US Treasury holdings by China over the past six months, alongside an increase in gold reserves and local currency settlements, suggests a shift towards a new payment network that bypasses the dollar [9] - Global capital movements, such as Japan's secret bond purchases and Saudi Arabia's avoidance of US Treasuries, reflect a collective anticipation of a post-dollar era [9] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma: raising interest rates to protect the dollar risks crushing corporate debt, while lowering rates to alleviate debt burdens could destabilize the currency [11] - The potential collapse of US Treasuries by 2025 may mark a critical point in the restructuring of the international monetary system, with significant implications for global trade and technology [13] - The current situation highlights the fragility of so-called "safe assets," suggesting that traditional wisdom of holding cash and hard currencies may be more prudent in times of systemic risk [13]

Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Since April 2025, international gold prices have experienced significant volatility, with a peak of $3,342 per ounce in early May, marking a year-to-date high [1] - The COMEX gold futures volatility index (GVZ) rose to 28.7 in April, a 65% increase from the March average, indicating heightened investor sentiment [1] - The gold price saw a dramatic drop of 4.8% within 24 hours following hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, the largest single-day decline since last year [1] Group 2: Investor Sentiment - In the first two weeks of April, global gold ETFs saw a net inflow of $2.3 billion, with speculative positions in COMEX gold futures reaching 72% [3] - However, in the subsequent two weeks, there was a net outflow of $1.8 billion as retail investors engaged in panic selling, leading to a 35% increase in trading volume for Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold TD contracts [3] - The market sentiment index shifted from "extreme greed" to "moderate fear," reflecting the high sensitivity of the current gold market [3] Group 3: Underlying Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The current geopolitical and economic environment is characterized by rising geopolitical risks, inflation expectations, and de-globalization trends, while economic growth expectations, policy coordination, and market risk appetite are declining [5] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy remains a core variable in gold pricing, with historical data indicating that changes in Fed policy expectations contribute over 40% to short-term gold price fluctuations [5] - Geopolitical tensions, such as the ongoing Middle East conflicts and the Russia-Ukraine situation, have heightened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, with a correlation coefficient of 0.78 between geopolitical risk and gold prices [5] Group 4: Changes in Gold Supply and Demand - The global gold supply has been declining for five consecutive years, with a projected 3.2% decrease in production for 2024 due to rising environmental standards and mining costs [8] - In contrast, investment demand in China has increased, with gold bar sales on the Shanghai Gold Exchange rising by 18% year-on-year in April, indicating a shift in demand dynamics [8] - The scarcity of gold, driven by its unique properties and limited availability, is a significant factor contributing to price volatility [8] Group 5: Future Investment Trends - Central banks globally have continued to increase their gold reserves, with a net purchase of 244 tons in the first quarter of 2025, indicating a trend towards diversifying away from the dollar [10] - Goldman Sachs predicts that if the Federal Reserve begins a rate-cutting cycle, gold prices could reach $3,700 per ounce by year-end, with extreme scenarios potentially pushing prices to $4,500 [10] - The COMEX net long positions in gold have reached 69%, nearing historical highs, suggesting potential for price corrections if the Fed delays rate cuts [10]

Group 1 - The article discusses the challenges faced by the dollar system due to the spillover effects of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, the weaponization of the dollar, and significant changes in the global economic landscape [1][2][8] - The Milan Report proposes the "Mar-a-Lago Accord" as a strategy for the U.S. to reshape the global economic order through dollar depreciation, debt restructuring, and trade confrontation [2][4] - The dollar's status as the dominant reserve currency is linked to U.S. financial control, which is maintained through military alliances and economic strategies [3][6] Group 2 - The dollar's financial control manifests in three key areas: international pricing power, financial sanctions, and crisis transfer [4][5] - The U.S. has leveraged its financial control to impose sanctions, as seen in the Ukraine crisis, which has raised concerns about the safety of dollar assets and accelerated the process of "de-dollarization" [10][11] - The "Triffin Dilemma" poses a structural challenge to the dollar system, where the need for liquidity through U.S. deficits undermines the dollar's credibility [7][12] Group 3 - The article highlights the impact of the dollar's hegemony on global financial stability, emphasizing that the current U.S. policies may exacerbate internal contradictions within the dollar system [8][9] - The spillover effects of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy have led to global financial cycles, with significant repercussions for emerging markets [9] - The weaponization of the dollar has contributed to the fragmentation of the global financial system, prompting countries to seek alternative payment mechanisms [10][11] Group 4 - The article suggests that the U.S. strategy of "debt monetization" could undermine global financial stability, as proposed in the Milan Report [12][13] - The potential implementation of long-term zero-coupon bonds could lead to a loss of confidence in U.S. Treasury securities, impacting global markets [12][13] - The need for a diversified international monetary system is emphasized, with recommendations for enhancing the use of the renminbi in global trade [13][14] Group 5 - The article advocates for the construction of a new international monetary order based on the concept of a "community of shared future for mankind," promoting cooperation among countries [16] - It highlights the importance of regional financial cooperation and the establishment of a multilateral currency settlement system to reduce reliance on third-party currencies [16] - The development of a digital currency payment system is seen as a crucial step towards reforming the international payment system and enhancing the renminbi's role [15][16]