价值成长轮动策略月度模型

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根据量化模型信号,10月建议超配大盘风格,均衡配置价值和成长风格
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES· 2025-10-12 14:20
Group 1: Market Style Rotation Insights - The report suggests an overweight allocation to large-cap stocks for October, with a balanced allocation between value and growth styles based on quantitative model signals [1][8] - The quantitative model signal for the end of September was -0.17, indicating a preference for large-cap stocks, while the mid to long-term view remains optimistic about small-cap stocks due to the current valuation gap of 0.86, which is significantly lower than historical highs [8][16] - Year-to-date, the large-cap rotation model has achieved a return of 27.85%, with an excess return of 3.07% compared to benchmarks like CSI 300 and CSI 2000 [8][16] Group 2: Value and Growth Style Rotation - The latest quantitative model signal for value and growth styles is 0, recommending an equal-weight allocation for October [23][24] - Year-to-date, the value-growth rotation strategy has yielded a return of 18.96%, with an excess return of 1.35% relative to the equal-weight benchmark [23][24] - The current model indicates that the fundamental dimension favors growth, while the macro dimension favors value, with no clear signal from the valuation dimension [24] Group 3: Factor Performance Tracking - In September, volatility, large-cap, growth, and value factors showed positive returns of 2.08%, 1.87%, 1.18%, and 0.01% respectively, while liquidity, quality, momentum, and dividend factors experienced negative returns [28][29] - Year-to-date, the volatility, growth, and momentum factors have positive returns of 11.32%, 1.91%, and 1.16%, while liquidity, dividend, large-cap, value, and quality factors have negative returns [28][29] - Among 20 style factors, short-term reversal, beta, large-cap, earnings variability, and growth factors had the highest positive returns in September, while liquidity, book-to-price, dividend yield, residual volatility, and mid-cap factors had the highest negative returns [32][35]