Core Insights - A low-pressure distributed photovoltaic power forecasting system has been launched in Shanxi Province, covering 11 cities and 115 counties, achieving over 95% accuracy in short-term forecasts [1] - As of the end of September, the installed capacity of distributed photovoltaic in Shanxi reached 14.89 million kilowatts, a 36% increase compared to the end of 2024 [1] - The new forecasting system addresses challenges posed by the variability of solar energy generation, which affects grid stability and precise scheduling [1] Technology Development - The system utilizes a time-series large model to predict low-pressure distributed photovoltaic power, analyzing historical generation data alongside various meteorological factors such as temperature, sunlight, cloud cover, and air quality [1] - It integrates meteorological data with historical generation data, allowing for multi-dimensional forecasting at provincial, municipal, and county levels [1] - The model is fine-tuned using local data from Shanxi, enhancing the specificity and accuracy of the predictions [1] Operational Efficiency - The new system enables the prediction of overall photovoltaic generation across the province, overcoming previous difficulties in accurately assessing scattered distributed photovoltaic power [1] - It provides decision-making support for optimizing grid scheduling by anticipating fluctuations in photovoltaic generation [1] - The system can complete a single forecasting task in under 20 seconds, significantly improving operational efficiency [1]

精准预测是促进新能源高效消纳的前提。该系统通过提前预判光伏发电的峰谷波动，为 电网优化调度提供了决策依据，从技术角度助力提升分布式光伏充分高效利用。 目前，该系统运行高效稳定，单次预测任务可在20秒内完成。下一步，国网山西电力将 持续推进该系统深化应用，重点提升系统在极端天气下的预测精度，增强对复杂气象条件的 适应能力，助力山西能源绿色转型和电网安全稳定运行。 【责任编辑：刘澄谚 】 日前，从国网山西省电力有限公司获悉，一套覆盖山西省11个地市、115个县域的低压 分布式光伏功率预测系统正式上线。该系统就像为屋顶光伏电站配备了高精度的"天气预 报"，能将低压分布式光伏短期预测准确率提升至95%以上，为山西构建高比例新能源接入 的新型电力系统提供了可靠的技术支撑。 近年来，山西分布式光伏发展迅速。截至今年9月底，山西省分布式光伏装机容量已达 1489万千瓦，较2024年底增长36%。然而，光伏"看天吃饭"的特性导致其发电量随天气变化 波动大，给电网稳定运行和精准调度带来挑战。 为破解这一难题，国网山西电力今年重点研发了基于时序大模型的低压分布式光伏功率 预测系统。该系统能够综合分析历史发电数据与温度、光照、云量 ...

Core Insights - A low-pressure distributed photovoltaic power forecasting system has been launched in Shanxi Province, enhancing short-term prediction accuracy to over 95% [1][2] - The installed capacity of distributed photovoltaic in Shanxi reached 14.89 million kilowatts by the end of September 2023, marking a 36% increase compared to the end of 2024 [1] Group 1: System Overview - The forecasting system covers all 11 cities and 115 counties in Shanxi, providing reliable technical support for a new power system with a high proportion of renewable energy [1] - The system utilizes historical generation data, temperature, light, cloud cover, and air quality to optimize prediction strategies through intelligent algorithms [1] Group 2: Operational Efficiency - The system can complete a single forecasting task in under 20 seconds, indicating high operational efficiency [2] - Future enhancements will focus on improving prediction accuracy under extreme weather conditions and adapting to complex meteorological scenarios [2]