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弱现实与强预期博弈 焦煤冲高之后会有一定压力
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-10-29 07:02
Core Viewpoint - The coal market in China is experiencing a mixed performance, with coking coal futures showing a slight increase, while demand for coal is reportedly at record levels according to Saudi Aramco's CEO [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On October 29, coking coal futures opened at 1242.0 CNY/ton, with a peak of 1288.0 CNY and a low of 1238.5 CNY, reflecting an increase of approximately 2.11% [1]. - In the Linfen market, the price for low-sulfur lean coal reached 1420 CNY/ton, while high-sulfur main coking coal was priced at 1089 CNY/ton, both being ex-factory prices inclusive of tax [1]. - Coal dispatch from Qinhuangdao port was 55.9 million tons, a decrease of 6.21% from the previous day, but an increase of 7.09% from the previous week, and a decrease of 1.58% year-on-year [1]. - At the Jing Tang port, coal dispatch was 28.8 million tons, showing a daily increase of 19.5%, a weekly increase of 43.28%, and a year-on-year increase of 65.52% [1]. Group 2: Future Outlook - According to Hengtai Futures, the profitability of steel mills continues to decline, which may reduce the demand for coking coal, despite the current high levels of iron production [2]. - The overall inventory of coking coal is decreasing at a slower pace during the peak season, indicating some support for prices due to domestic production restrictions [2]. - Xinyi Futures noted that while there are expectations for reduced supply due to overproduction regulations, actual supply reductions have not been significant, leading to a potential for price fluctuations in the near term [2].